10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Live Extra
Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.26.14
3-1 Liverpool (a) 09.29.13
3-0 Liverpool (h) 01.02.13
1-1 (a) 09.15.12
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-1 Leicester (a); 1-0 Stoke (h); 2-2 Ludogorets (a)
Sunderland: 1-4 City (h); 0-0 Chelsea (h); 0-0 Leicester (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Gerrard, Own Goal, Sterling 3; Henderson, Lallana 2; Can, Coutinho, Johnson, Lambert, Moreno, Sturridge 1
Sunderland: Fletcher 4; Larsson, Wickham 2; Cattermole, Gomez, Johnson, Rodwell 1
Referee: Neil Swarbrick
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Skrtel Sakho Moreno
Can Allen
Henderson Coutinho Lallana
Borini
Okay. It's Liverpool's fifth match in 13 days. Lambert, Sterling, Johnson, Skrtel and Mignolet have all started the last four. Lucas, Toure, and Henderson have started the last three. And Liverpool host Basel on Tuesday to determine who'll progress to the Champions League knockout rounds.
Something has to give. But, unsurprisingly, I can only guess at what that means for Liverpool's starting XI.
So, for the sake of argument, let's assume that Lambert, Sterling, Lucas, and Toure will be rested. They seem the most in need and the most likely, although there are arguments against leaving out all four. At least Sakho's back in training and should be available, which is a boon, allowing Toure a break without needing the very-out-of-form Lovren to come back in. But center-backs usually need to be rested less than other outfield players; even Benitez, who rotated constantly, rarely altered his central pairing.
Borini hasn't even made the bench in the last two matches, but Lambert has looked the most in need of a respite, and there's also the fun subplot of Borini facing his former side, one which he refused to join last summer. Emre Can, while much more of a box-to-box player, is still a reasonable replacement for Lucas, although Lucas has played fewer minutes than all but Toure in the above list, and was the most impressive of the four against Leicester. Sterling seemingly cannot keep playing every match, but was also fairly good at Leicester on Tuesday, better than he had been in the three previous matches. But, still only 19, he's played more minutes than any other outfield player this season, and Liverpool have the option of using Lallana or Coutinho or Markovic in his stead, with Sterling available as a change of pace off the bench if needed.
Gerrard will almost certainly start against both Basel and Manchester United next Sunday, so it makes a certain amount of sense to rest him here as well. But I don't know if Rodgers would be comfortable leaving out both Gerrard and Sterling, Liverpool's top two scorers (if you discount Own Goal's contributions). And then there was the whole "OMG HE DIDN'T START AGAINST STOKE" fiasco (even though Liverpool won!), which probably also gives Rodgers pause.
So I'm guessing a somewhat makeshift XI around those players being rested, but I suspect we'll see at least a couple of them start, just because Rodgers will want to avoid too many changes with Liverpool actually on a two-match winning streak. I just have no idea which couple it'll be.
Sunderland's last two away matches were at Leicester and Crystal Palace, the same as Liverpool's last two away fixtures. And they beat Palace 3-1, the same scoreline Liverpool lost by. That, on November 3rd, was Sunderland's last win. They were held 0-0 at Leicester three weeks ago, a Leicester side who gave away three goals to a Liverpool's team who fervently struggles to score.
That sums up Sunderland fairly well. They can stifle Chelsea to a 0-0 draw, the only side who've held Chelsea scoreless all season, then follow it up by conceding four against Manchester City. They'll lose 0-8 to Southampton, the biggest scoreline in the Premier League this season, then battle Arsenal to a 0-2 result which more than flatters Arsenal.
As it has for Liverpool, Sunderland's three games in a week will somewhat expose their small squad. I suspect their XI will feature many of the same players who've featured against both Chelsea and City. Adam Johnson and Wes Brown were rested against City, so they'll come back into the line-up. Something like Pantilimon; Vergini, O'Shea, Brown, Reveillere; Cattermole; Johnson, Larsson, Rodwell, Wickham; Fletcher.
However, Gus Poyet does have a few options. Steven Fletcher is carrying a slight knock from Wednesday's match at City, so Jozy Altidore could start instead. Ricky Alvarez, formerly of Inter Milan, is an option on either flank, as is Will Buckley. Jordi Gomez could start in place of Larsson or Rodwell. Billy Jones, van Aanholt, and Giaccherini are Sunderland's only injury concerns, while Seba Coates is ineligible to face Liverpool.
So, which Sunderland will Liverpool get tomorrow? The resilient defense and determined counter-attack (which is also more than capable from set plays) or the leaky defense and hapless goal-scorers? Given Liverpool's season so far, I expect the former – Sunderland did battle to a 1-2 loss in this fixture last season, against a much better Liverpool – but it depends on Sunderland as much as it does Liverpool.
And, just as importantly, which Liverpool will we get tomorrow?
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Nota Bene: Friend's wedding tomorrow (who schedules weddings during football season?) so no match review. Maybe will get one up early Sunday, but more likely it'll be the usual midweek deal of no match review, slightly longer match infographic on Monday.
05 December 2014
03 December 2014
Visualized: Liverpool 3-1 Leicester
Previous Match Infographics: Stoke (h), Ludogorets (a), Crystal Palace (a), Chelsea (h), Real Madrid (a), Newcastle (a), Hull (h), Real Madrid (h), QPR (a), West Brom (h), Basel (a), Everton (h), West Ham (a), Ludogorets (h), Aston Villa (h), Tottenham (a), Manchester City (a), Southampton (h)
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews. It seemingly started out as 4-2-3-1, with Henderson closer to Lucas, but increasingly became 4-1-2-3 as the match went on, especially after Leicester went down to 10 men.)
Remember those few positives we've discussed after the narrow win over Stoke? Welp...
• Liverpool were out-shot again, 20 to 11, for the eighth time this season and sixth time in the last seven matches.
• Liverpool once again conceded a goal they shouldn't have conceded, another blunder coupled with bad luck from Mignolet (with a little bit of help from Johnson, Toure, and Lucas).
• Liverpool's attacking third passes can be best described by screaming "HIDE THE CHILDREN!"
So many long, failed attempts. 50 completed passes in the final third is the second-lowest total ever under Rodgers, behind the 49 of 80 completed in the 1-2 loss at Chelsea last season. And it's the third time in four matches that Liverpool have completed fewer than 60% of their attacking third passes.
• Liverpool were almost wholly unable to create chances, with only Sterling (1, an assist), Henderson (3), and Gerrard (1) registering a key pass.
• Liverpool's central striker, starting his fourth match in nine days (and playing all 90 minutes in all four), did not take a shot or create a chance.
Put simply, Liverpool won because Leicester are terrible.
Now, I can hear you say "but Palace/Basel/Newcastle/Aston Villa/etc. were pretty terrible and Liverpool still found a way to lose!" And you've got a point. But Leicester were worse.
Every single Liverpool shot on-target – all three of them – resulted in goals. That's happened just two other times since Brendan Rodgers became manager: the oft-mentioned outlier 1-0 win at Villa last season where Liverpool took just five shots (and just one after scoring in the 21st minute), and 10 days ago against Crystal Palace, where Liverpool scored with its first shot but failed to find the target with the next 11.
Leicester players prominently appear in each of Liverpool's three goal diagrams: failed clearances by De Laet and Morgan on the first (where Schmeichel also got a hand to Lallana's shot but failed to stop it), Morgan's interception to perfectly set up Gerrard for the second, and Wasilewski's mishit interception and Schmeichel's failed attempt to push the ball clear on the third. It's almost a shame that Wes Morgan was sent off in the 63rd minute; you could credit him with assists for Liverpool's first two goals.
Liverpool made one costly defensive error – one which wasn't even classified as an Opta-defined defensive error – but should have been punished even more. There were two Opta-defined defensive errors leading to shots, and Liverpool absolutely should have paid for the first, when Mignolet's clearance when straight to an open Cambiasso, who failed to hit an open goal. Those were Liverpool's 18th and 19th defensive errors this season; Liverpool "leads" the league in that category by three.
But, once again, baby steps.
Aside from the seemingly never-ending errors, Liverpool defended reasonably well, regardless of whether or not Leicester are terrible (they are). It was Lucas' best match since returning to the XI, with eight tackles (all successful) and four interceptions, leading the side in both categories. It's probably not coincidence that happened with Lucas as the sole defensive midfielder for the majority of the match rather than playing in a partnership. Leicester had seven corners and six free kicks in Liverpool's half, and Liverpool defended all of them adequately, allowing just one chance from James' 30th minute corner.
Liverpool at least retained its resiliency. Liverpool at least got a result. Liverpool won by two-or-more goals for the first time since August 31 at Tottenham, 18 matches ago (in all competitions). Liverpool scored three goals for just the third time this season, and it's hard to even count the QPR match, where two of those goals were actually scored by QPR.
And it is another weight off Liverpool's shoulders. Last week, they finally won a narrow game and kept a clean sheet. Now, they've won away from home, for just the third time this season, after those aforementioned matches at Tottenham and QPR. They've won despite conceding the first goal, for the first time since the last match of last season.
Liverpool may not have been very good, but at least they've refused to lose these last three matches despite not being very good. That's progress.
But Liverpool will almost certainly have to be better than they were yesterday to beat most other sides.
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews. It seemingly started out as 4-2-3-1, with Henderson closer to Lucas, but increasingly became 4-1-2-3 as the match went on, especially after Leicester went down to 10 men.)
Remember those few positives we've discussed after the narrow win over Stoke? Welp...
• Liverpool were out-shot again, 20 to 11, for the eighth time this season and sixth time in the last seven matches.
xG map for Leicester-Liverpool. Reds took their chances, but perhaps fortunate the Foxes didn't take theirs. pic.twitter.com/y1idbNriAV
— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) December 3, 2014• Liverpool once again conceded a goal they shouldn't have conceded, another blunder coupled with bad luck from Mignolet (with a little bit of help from Johnson, Toure, and Lucas).
• Liverpool's attacking third passes can be best described by screaming "HIDE THE CHILDREN!"
So many long, failed attempts. 50 completed passes in the final third is the second-lowest total ever under Rodgers, behind the 49 of 80 completed in the 1-2 loss at Chelsea last season. And it's the third time in four matches that Liverpool have completed fewer than 60% of their attacking third passes.
• Liverpool were almost wholly unable to create chances, with only Sterling (1, an assist), Henderson (3), and Gerrard (1) registering a key pass.
• Liverpool's central striker, starting his fourth match in nine days (and playing all 90 minutes in all four), did not take a shot or create a chance.
Put simply, Liverpool won because Leicester are terrible.
Now, I can hear you say "but Palace/Basel/Newcastle/Aston Villa/etc. were pretty terrible and Liverpool still found a way to lose!" And you've got a point. But Leicester were worse.
Every single Liverpool shot on-target – all three of them – resulted in goals. That's happened just two other times since Brendan Rodgers became manager: the oft-mentioned outlier 1-0 win at Villa last season where Liverpool took just five shots (and just one after scoring in the 21st minute), and 10 days ago against Crystal Palace, where Liverpool scored with its first shot but failed to find the target with the next 11.
Leicester players prominently appear in each of Liverpool's three goal diagrams: failed clearances by De Laet and Morgan on the first (where Schmeichel also got a hand to Lallana's shot but failed to stop it), Morgan's interception to perfectly set up Gerrard for the second, and Wasilewski's mishit interception and Schmeichel's failed attempt to push the ball clear on the third. It's almost a shame that Wes Morgan was sent off in the 63rd minute; you could credit him with assists for Liverpool's first two goals.
Liverpool made one costly defensive error – one which wasn't even classified as an Opta-defined defensive error – but should have been punished even more. There were two Opta-defined defensive errors leading to shots, and Liverpool absolutely should have paid for the first, when Mignolet's clearance when straight to an open Cambiasso, who failed to hit an open goal. Those were Liverpool's 18th and 19th defensive errors this season; Liverpool "leads" the league in that category by three.
But, once again, baby steps.
Aside from the seemingly never-ending errors, Liverpool defended reasonably well, regardless of whether or not Leicester are terrible (they are). It was Lucas' best match since returning to the XI, with eight tackles (all successful) and four interceptions, leading the side in both categories. It's probably not coincidence that happened with Lucas as the sole defensive midfielder for the majority of the match rather than playing in a partnership. Leicester had seven corners and six free kicks in Liverpool's half, and Liverpool defended all of them adequately, allowing just one chance from James' 30th minute corner.
Liverpool at least retained its resiliency. Liverpool at least got a result. Liverpool won by two-or-more goals for the first time since August 31 at Tottenham, 18 matches ago (in all competitions). Liverpool scored three goals for just the third time this season, and it's hard to even count the QPR match, where two of those goals were actually scored by QPR.
And it is another weight off Liverpool's shoulders. Last week, they finally won a narrow game and kept a clean sheet. Now, they've won away from home, for just the third time this season, after those aforementioned matches at Tottenham and QPR. They've won despite conceding the first goal, for the first time since the last match of last season.
Liverpool may not have been very good, but at least they've refused to lose these last three matches despite not being very good. That's progress.
But Liverpool will almost certainly have to be better than they were yesterday to beat most other sides.
01 December 2014
Liverpool at Leicester 12.02.14
2:45pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Live Extra
Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (a) 03.28.04
2-1 Liverpool (h) 09.20.03
1-0 Liverpool (h) 01.30.02
4-1 Liverpool (a) 10.20.01
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Stoke (h); 2-2 Ludogorets (a); 1-3 Palace (a)
Leicester: 2-3 QPR (a); 0-0 Sunderland (h); 0-2 Southampton (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Own Goal, Sterling 3; Gerrard 2; Can, Coutinho, Henderson, Johnson, Lallana, Lambert, Moreno, Sturridge 1
Leicester: Ulloa 5; Cambiasso, Schlupp 2; Mahrez, Nugent, Vardy, Wood 1
Referee: Lee Mason (sigh)
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Skrtel Lovren Moreno
Can Allen
Lallana Gerrard Sterling
Borini
Will Rodgers leave Gerrard on the bench for the second-straight match?
I doubt it.
Are Lambert, Lucas, and Toure fit enough to start four matches in nine days in the case of Lambert, and three matches in six days in the case of Lucas and Toure?
I doubt it.
So we'll almost certainly see a different XI based around those changes.
Sterling and Johnson are also candidates to be rested. But Johnson's coming off a match where he wasn't awful and actually scored the winner, while Sterling's played more minutes than any other outfield player, so I suspect both will keep their places.
Lucas has played well enough as Liverpool's deepest midfielder, but Allen's been the linchpin. Ideally, he stays in the side, paired with Henderson or Can if Liverpool retain the 4-2-3-1 formation used in the last two matches. And since Liverpool have looked marginally better in these last two matches, I suspect they will.
Which again begs the question of what to do with Steven Gerrard. Even though Liverpool already have a surplus of options at the position (Sterling, Coutinho, Lallana), it seems as if he has to play as the #10, since sole defensive midfielder should be and seemingly is out of the equation, especially in a match where Liverpool expect to dominate possession and will be exposed to counter-attacks. But maybe he's given a trial run alongside another at the base of midfield in the 4-2-3-1 formation, whether it's Allen, Henderson, or Can. Especially since Leicester isn't known for their attacking prowess through the middle.
But if Gerrard's the #10, I think Liverpool need more creatively from the role Henderson's filled in the last two matches, whether it's from Lallana, Sterling, Coutinho, or Markovic. But maybe Lallana takes Sterling's spot on the left because the latter needs a match off, with Henderson remaining in the side.
With Balotelli and Sakho still injured (as are Flanagan, Sturridge, and Suso), Liverpool have few options at striker and center-back. I suspect Borini has to play because Lambert won't be fit enough to start again, and similar goes for Lovren rather than Toure, although it's easier for center-backs to play consecutive matches.
But I also wouldn't be surprised to see Lambert, Lucas, Toure, Gerrard, Henderson, Sterling, etc all start again, pretty much the same XI as against Ludogorets, because Liverpool have looked marginally better and marginally better is a dramatic improvement and why ruin it now. Guessing Liverpool's XIs has become infinitely harder this season. Which, I guess, is to be expected when no one knows Liverpool's best XI.
Prior to Saturday's 2-3 loss at QPR, Leicester hadn't scored in five games. They haven't won since September 21, that hilarious 5-3 comeback win over Manchester United, losing six and drawing two during that span.
So it's little surprise that Leicester are currently propping up the table. But Liverpool, in their infinite charity, can be just as awful against the division's worst sides.
Leicester play a 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 hybrid; the two midfielders sit deep, the two wingers play high up the pitch, and both Ulloa and Vardy are out and out strikers but the former frequently drops deeper. With few options, I suspect their XI will look the same as against QPR on Saturday, which was Schmeichel; De Laet, Wasilewski, Morgan, Konchesky; Mahrez, James, Cambiasso, Schlupp; Ulloa, Vardy. Nugent is back from a minor injury (Hammond and Upson are Leicester's only absentees), but I suspect Ulloa and Vardy will continue to be preferred. Ulloa, with five of Leicester's 13 goals, is clearly the danger man. James has been Cambiasso's midfield partner for the last few matches, but both King and Drinkwater are options as well.
Ideally, Liverpool will continue to build on the positives against Ludogorets and Stoke, especially the second half against Stoke, but matches like Palace, QPR, and West Ham away from Anfield remain at the forefront of the mind. Liverpool have been fairly dire when traveling to lesser sides, especially lesser sides who like to play direct football.
For Schlupp and Mahrez, read Bolasie and Puncheon. For Ulloa and Vardy, read Chamakh and Gayle. Leicester have kept just two clean sheets all season, but they've still conceded fewer goals than Palace have. Like Palace, they're playing with house money; if they lose, well, it's Liverpool and we're supposed to lose, even considering Liverpool's current state of affairs. If they win, it's another scalp on the scale of Manchester United for a side likely to be back in the Championship next season.
Given how Liverpool performed against Palace, QPR, and West Ham – among others – this is the exactly the type of match they need to prove they're capable of winning before we can start talking about actual, concrete turning point improvements.
Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (a) 03.28.04
2-1 Liverpool (h) 09.20.03
1-0 Liverpool (h) 01.30.02
4-1 Liverpool (a) 10.20.01
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Stoke (h); 2-2 Ludogorets (a); 1-3 Palace (a)
Leicester: 2-3 QPR (a); 0-0 Sunderland (h); 0-2 Southampton (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Own Goal, Sterling 3; Gerrard 2; Can, Coutinho, Henderson, Johnson, Lallana, Lambert, Moreno, Sturridge 1
Leicester: Ulloa 5; Cambiasso, Schlupp 2; Mahrez, Nugent, Vardy, Wood 1
Referee: Lee Mason (sigh)
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Skrtel Lovren Moreno
Can Allen
Lallana Gerrard Sterling
Borini
Will Rodgers leave Gerrard on the bench for the second-straight match?
I doubt it.
Are Lambert, Lucas, and Toure fit enough to start four matches in nine days in the case of Lambert, and three matches in six days in the case of Lucas and Toure?
I doubt it.
So we'll almost certainly see a different XI based around those changes.
Sterling and Johnson are also candidates to be rested. But Johnson's coming off a match where he wasn't awful and actually scored the winner, while Sterling's played more minutes than any other outfield player, so I suspect both will keep their places.
Lucas has played well enough as Liverpool's deepest midfielder, but Allen's been the linchpin. Ideally, he stays in the side, paired with Henderson or Can if Liverpool retain the 4-2-3-1 formation used in the last two matches. And since Liverpool have looked marginally better in these last two matches, I suspect they will.
Which again begs the question of what to do with Steven Gerrard. Even though Liverpool already have a surplus of options at the position (Sterling, Coutinho, Lallana), it seems as if he has to play as the #10, since sole defensive midfielder should be and seemingly is out of the equation, especially in a match where Liverpool expect to dominate possession and will be exposed to counter-attacks. But maybe he's given a trial run alongside another at the base of midfield in the 4-2-3-1 formation, whether it's Allen, Henderson, or Can. Especially since Leicester isn't known for their attacking prowess through the middle.
But if Gerrard's the #10, I think Liverpool need more creatively from the role Henderson's filled in the last two matches, whether it's from Lallana, Sterling, Coutinho, or Markovic. But maybe Lallana takes Sterling's spot on the left because the latter needs a match off, with Henderson remaining in the side.
With Balotelli and Sakho still injured (as are Flanagan, Sturridge, and Suso), Liverpool have few options at striker and center-back. I suspect Borini has to play because Lambert won't be fit enough to start again, and similar goes for Lovren rather than Toure, although it's easier for center-backs to play consecutive matches.
But I also wouldn't be surprised to see Lambert, Lucas, Toure, Gerrard, Henderson, Sterling, etc all start again, pretty much the same XI as against Ludogorets, because Liverpool have looked marginally better and marginally better is a dramatic improvement and why ruin it now. Guessing Liverpool's XIs has become infinitely harder this season. Which, I guess, is to be expected when no one knows Liverpool's best XI.
Prior to Saturday's 2-3 loss at QPR, Leicester hadn't scored in five games. They haven't won since September 21, that hilarious 5-3 comeback win over Manchester United, losing six and drawing two during that span.
So it's little surprise that Leicester are currently propping up the table. But Liverpool, in their infinite charity, can be just as awful against the division's worst sides.
Leicester play a 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 hybrid; the two midfielders sit deep, the two wingers play high up the pitch, and both Ulloa and Vardy are out and out strikers but the former frequently drops deeper. With few options, I suspect their XI will look the same as against QPR on Saturday, which was Schmeichel; De Laet, Wasilewski, Morgan, Konchesky; Mahrez, James, Cambiasso, Schlupp; Ulloa, Vardy. Nugent is back from a minor injury (Hammond and Upson are Leicester's only absentees), but I suspect Ulloa and Vardy will continue to be preferred. Ulloa, with five of Leicester's 13 goals, is clearly the danger man. James has been Cambiasso's midfield partner for the last few matches, but both King and Drinkwater are options as well.
Ideally, Liverpool will continue to build on the positives against Ludogorets and Stoke, especially the second half against Stoke, but matches like Palace, QPR, and West Ham away from Anfield remain at the forefront of the mind. Liverpool have been fairly dire when traveling to lesser sides, especially lesser sides who like to play direct football.
For Schlupp and Mahrez, read Bolasie and Puncheon. For Ulloa and Vardy, read Chamakh and Gayle. Leicester have kept just two clean sheets all season, but they've still conceded fewer goals than Palace have. Like Palace, they're playing with house money; if they lose, well, it's Liverpool and we're supposed to lose, even considering Liverpool's current state of affairs. If they win, it's another scalp on the scale of Manchester United for a side likely to be back in the Championship next season.
Given how Liverpool performed against Palace, QPR, and West Ham – among others – this is the exactly the type of match they need to prove they're capable of winning before we can start talking about actual, concrete turning point improvements.
Visualized: Liverpool 1-0 Stoke
Previous Match Infographics: Ludogorets (a), Crystal Palace (a), Chelsea (h), Real Madrid (a), Newcastle (a), Hull (h), Real Madrid (h), QPR (a), West Brom (h), Basel (a), Everton (h), West Ham (a), Ludogorets (h), Aston Villa (h), Tottenham (a), Manchester City (a), Southampton (h)
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
Stoke may not be Tony Pulis' mouth-breathing monsters anymore, but they still know how to ugly up any match.
Liverpool's 77.9% passing accuracy was a rounding error away from being its lowest of the season, 0.00002% better than that against QPR. Liverpool's 338 completed passes were the second-lowest mark in the league this season, ahead of only the 281 completed at Tottenham, a match where Liverpool solely played for the counter after taking an early lead.
And Liverpool's attacking third passing was even worse. 90 completed, 153 attempted, 58.8% successful. Which is the lowest accuracy of the season, and the sixth lowest in the league since Brendan Rodgers became manager
But at least it got better.
Liverpool weren't great by any stretch, Liverpool still struggled to hit the target, Liverpool still allowed the opposition a handful of threatening chances, but Liverpool actually looked like a football team for the first time in a long time in the second half.
Each of the four attacks between the 61st and 68th minutes featured competent interplay between Liverpool attackers that resulted in a dangerous shot from inside the box; even if none resulted in a goal, they were the exact moves which Liverpool had been lacking during this winless streak.
And Liverpool didn't allow Stoke a single shot during that spell, from Bojan hitting the woodwork then ballooning the rebound in the 60th minute until Adam's swiftly blocked effort from distance in the 80th.
It wasn't pretty and it certainly wasn't easy, but it got better as the match went on and Liverpool got a result, and after the last month, that's all you can ask for.
Saturday was the first time since the 0-0 against Hull on October 25 (and just the fifth time in 13 matches) where Liverpool didn't have at least one defensive error which led to either a shot or goal.
Liverpool took more shots than their opponents for the first time since the Hull match, out-shot by an 89-42 margin in the five Premier League and Champions League games during that stretch.
Liverpool's pressing was more effective (as was Stoke's), with five of 21 tackles and three of 13 interceptions in the opposition half.
Unlike in both of last season's meetings, Liverpool won more than half of its aerial duels (25 of 48, compared to 14 of 38 and 15 of 38 in 2013-14).
And that Liverpool were able to hold on to the clean sheet and victory during those frightening final minutes will be as much of a confidence boost as the result itself.
Since Stoke were promoted in 2008, the matches at Anfield have ended 0-0, 4-0, 2-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, and 1-0; the 4-0 win in 2009 – the season where Liverpool began its torturous decline – was an aberration, the exception that proves the rule. Sure, Stoke failed to score in all of them, but Liverpool also failed to score in three of the seven, and this Liverpool attack has probably been worse than all of the others. No matter how good Liverpool have been or how bad Stoke have been, these matches have almost always been closely contested and fairly ugly.
Given the dearth of confidence and competence over the last month, rebuilding both was always going to be a slow process. This wasn't a dramatic step, but it was a first step. That Liverpool grew into the game, improved over the course of the game, won it late on, and kept a clean sheet are actually promising signs, and promising signs have been very few and far between this over the last few months.
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
Stoke may not be Tony Pulis' mouth-breathing monsters anymore, but they still know how to ugly up any match.
Liverpool's 77.9% passing accuracy was a rounding error away from being its lowest of the season, 0.00002% better than that against QPR. Liverpool's 338 completed passes were the second-lowest mark in the league this season, ahead of only the 281 completed at Tottenham, a match where Liverpool solely played for the counter after taking an early lead.
And Liverpool's attacking third passing was even worse. 90 completed, 153 attempted, 58.8% successful. Which is the lowest accuracy of the season, and the sixth lowest in the league since Brendan Rodgers became manager
But at least it got better.
Liverpool weren't great by any stretch, Liverpool still struggled to hit the target, Liverpool still allowed the opposition a handful of threatening chances, but Liverpool actually looked like a football team for the first time in a long time in the second half.
Each of the four attacks between the 61st and 68th minutes featured competent interplay between Liverpool attackers that resulted in a dangerous shot from inside the box; even if none resulted in a goal, they were the exact moves which Liverpool had been lacking during this winless streak.
And Liverpool didn't allow Stoke a single shot during that spell, from Bojan hitting the woodwork then ballooning the rebound in the 60th minute until Adam's swiftly blocked effort from distance in the 80th.
It wasn't pretty and it certainly wasn't easy, but it got better as the match went on and Liverpool got a result, and after the last month, that's all you can ask for.
Saturday was the first time since the 0-0 against Hull on October 25 (and just the fifth time in 13 matches) where Liverpool didn't have at least one defensive error which led to either a shot or goal.
Liverpool took more shots than their opponents for the first time since the Hull match, out-shot by an 89-42 margin in the five Premier League and Champions League games during that stretch.
Liverpool's pressing was more effective (as was Stoke's), with five of 21 tackles and three of 13 interceptions in the opposition half.
Unlike in both of last season's meetings, Liverpool won more than half of its aerial duels (25 of 48, compared to 14 of 38 and 15 of 38 in 2013-14).
And that Liverpool were able to hold on to the clean sheet and victory during those frightening final minutes will be as much of a confidence boost as the result itself.
Since Stoke were promoted in 2008, the matches at Anfield have ended 0-0, 4-0, 2-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, and 1-0; the 4-0 win in 2009 – the season where Liverpool began its torturous decline – was an aberration, the exception that proves the rule. Sure, Stoke failed to score in all of them, but Liverpool also failed to score in three of the seven, and this Liverpool attack has probably been worse than all of the others. No matter how good Liverpool have been or how bad Stoke have been, these matches have almost always been closely contested and fairly ugly.
Given the dearth of confidence and competence over the last month, rebuilding both was always going to be a slow process. This wasn't a dramatic step, but it was a first step. That Liverpool grew into the game, improved over the course of the game, won it late on, and kept a clean sheet are actually promising signs, and promising signs have been very few and far between this over the last few months.
29 November 2014
Liverpool 1-0 Stoke
Goals:
Johnson 85'
Liverpool were still a bit crap, Liverpool were definitely a bit lucky, but it's three points, a clean sheet, and no defensive errors, playing a side that Liverpool historically struggle against, so it's also definite improvement.
Winning ugly is better than drawing ugly or losing ugly, and "not ugly" hasn't been an option since, say, August.
The less said about the first half, the better. Liverpool retained the shape and most of the personnel from Wednesday's match against Ludogorets: Coutinho for Gerrard and Enrique for Manquillo the only changes. Stoke's doubtful players were available, a full-strength XI that was typically compact, defensive, and looking to counter but mostly unable to. The familiar set-up against a Liverpool side that often falls to pieces in the attacking third.
And both sides were lukewarm, fetid garbage in that first half. Neither side were able to keep possession and neither side threatened (which I guess is progress for Liverpool's defense). Stoke's first shot on target came in the 55th minute, Liverpool's in the 65th.
Liverpool started the second half brighter, but Stoke – who had to make two substitutions by that point: Whelan replacing the injured Sidwell, Adam replacing the injured Whelan – had two frightening chances. Mignolet blocked Diouf's attempt from Bojan's counter in the 55th, Bojan beat Lucas all ends up before hitting the post on the hour.
But then Liverpool began to put things together. Cohesion was always going to be a struggle given how dire Liverpool have been of late, but at least things came together before Liverpool were behind. In 10 minutes, Sterling shot narrowly wide, Lucas and Lambert shot straight at Begovic, and Allen ballooned a 10-yard chance in front of goal. It was Liverpool's best spell in quite some time.
So when Liverpool seemingly ran out of steam after that burst, just before Gerrard replaced Lucas, it looked as if they'd again rue an inability to score. Especially when Stoke had two more heart-in-mouth moments, with Mignolet palming away Adam's cross-slash-shot and Sterling somehow blocking Diouf's effort on the line from a corner.
But then Liverpool finally scored, through one of the least likely goalscorers: Henderson's deep cross after sustained possession headed onto the crossbar by Lambert, Glen Johnson – off all people – first to react, quickest to react, and courageous in his diving header, kicked in the head for his trouble but scoring regardless. The scapegoat comes good. One of the scapegoats, anyway.
The final 12 minutes, including seven minutes of added time, were indescribably frightening, but Liverpool held out. Just as they had to do in this match last season. And while it was constantly panic-inducing, there was never a moment like last season's penalty save. Mignolet tipped over an unbelievable Bojan volley that might not have been going in anyway. Stoke had three corners: two claimed by Mignolet, one missed by Mignolet but somehow traveling through the box untouched. Terrifying, but not needing heroics to hang on either.
So, yeah, baby steps. It wasn't pretty, but it somehow worked. Barely, but it worked. That's pretty much all that matters at the moment.
There were signs of progress: the "flurry" just after the hour mark and prior to scoring, a clean sheet and no defensive errors, that Lucas and Toure kept their places after decent performances against Ludogorets, that Gerrard was actually rested when he needed to be rested. Allen and Lucas were probably Liverpool's best players, and it probably shouldn't be surprising that they looked a better pairing after playing together for more time.
There were still things to complain about: Liverpool's early impotence, the chances allowed but thankfully untaken, the lack of game-altering substitutions, Borini not even included on the bench despite Lambert huffing and puffing by the 70th minute after playing three games in six days. Liverpool still have a lot of things to fix.
But stopping this rot was never going to be easy. Coupled with the draw against Ludogorets, an acceptable result with signs of positivity but some continuing complaints, it might well be the very, very early start of the turnaround Liverpool so desperately need.
At this point, all that matters is the result, and Liverpool finally got a result.
Johnson 85'
Liverpool were still a bit crap, Liverpool were definitely a bit lucky, but it's three points, a clean sheet, and no defensive errors, playing a side that Liverpool historically struggle against, so it's also definite improvement.
Winning ugly is better than drawing ugly or losing ugly, and "not ugly" hasn't been an option since, say, August.
The less said about the first half, the better. Liverpool retained the shape and most of the personnel from Wednesday's match against Ludogorets: Coutinho for Gerrard and Enrique for Manquillo the only changes. Stoke's doubtful players were available, a full-strength XI that was typically compact, defensive, and looking to counter but mostly unable to. The familiar set-up against a Liverpool side that often falls to pieces in the attacking third.
And both sides were lukewarm, fetid garbage in that first half. Neither side were able to keep possession and neither side threatened (which I guess is progress for Liverpool's defense). Stoke's first shot on target came in the 55th minute, Liverpool's in the 65th.
Liverpool started the second half brighter, but Stoke – who had to make two substitutions by that point: Whelan replacing the injured Sidwell, Adam replacing the injured Whelan – had two frightening chances. Mignolet blocked Diouf's attempt from Bojan's counter in the 55th, Bojan beat Lucas all ends up before hitting the post on the hour.
But then Liverpool began to put things together. Cohesion was always going to be a struggle given how dire Liverpool have been of late, but at least things came together before Liverpool were behind. In 10 minutes, Sterling shot narrowly wide, Lucas and Lambert shot straight at Begovic, and Allen ballooned a 10-yard chance in front of goal. It was Liverpool's best spell in quite some time.
So when Liverpool seemingly ran out of steam after that burst, just before Gerrard replaced Lucas, it looked as if they'd again rue an inability to score. Especially when Stoke had two more heart-in-mouth moments, with Mignolet palming away Adam's cross-slash-shot and Sterling somehow blocking Diouf's effort on the line from a corner.
But then Liverpool finally scored, through one of the least likely goalscorers: Henderson's deep cross after sustained possession headed onto the crossbar by Lambert, Glen Johnson – off all people – first to react, quickest to react, and courageous in his diving header, kicked in the head for his trouble but scoring regardless. The scapegoat comes good. One of the scapegoats, anyway.
The final 12 minutes, including seven minutes of added time, were indescribably frightening, but Liverpool held out. Just as they had to do in this match last season. And while it was constantly panic-inducing, there was never a moment like last season's penalty save. Mignolet tipped over an unbelievable Bojan volley that might not have been going in anyway. Stoke had three corners: two claimed by Mignolet, one missed by Mignolet but somehow traveling through the box untouched. Terrifying, but not needing heroics to hang on either.
So, yeah, baby steps. It wasn't pretty, but it somehow worked. Barely, but it worked. That's pretty much all that matters at the moment.
There were signs of progress: the "flurry" just after the hour mark and prior to scoring, a clean sheet and no defensive errors, that Lucas and Toure kept their places after decent performances against Ludogorets, that Gerrard was actually rested when he needed to be rested. Allen and Lucas were probably Liverpool's best players, and it probably shouldn't be surprising that they looked a better pairing after playing together for more time.
There were still things to complain about: Liverpool's early impotence, the chances allowed but thankfully untaken, the lack of game-altering substitutions, Borini not even included on the bench despite Lambert huffing and puffing by the 70th minute after playing three games in six days. Liverpool still have a lot of things to fix.
But stopping this rot was never going to be easy. Coupled with the draw against Ludogorets, an acceptable result with signs of positivity but some continuing complaints, it might well be the very, very early start of the turnaround Liverpool so desperately need.
At this point, all that matters is the result, and Liverpool finally got a result.
28 November 2014
Liverpool v Stoke 11.29.14
10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Live Extra
Last four head-to-head:
5-3 Liverpool (a) 01.12.14
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.17.13
1-3 Stoke (a) 12.26.13
0-0 (h) 10.07.12
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Ludogorets (a); 1-3 Palace (a); 1-2 Chelsea (h)
Stoke: 1-2 Burnley (h); 2-1 Tottenham (a); 2-2 West Ham (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Own Goal, Sterling 3; Gerrard 2; Can, Coutinho, Henderson, Lallana, Lambert, Moreno, Sturridge 1
Stoke: Diouf, Walters 3; Adam, Crouch 2; Bojan, Moses, Shawcross 1
Referee: Craig Pawson
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Skrtel Lovren Moreno
Gerrard
Henderson Coutinho
Lallana Lambert Sterling
What changes from Wednesday's match at Ludogorets will Rodgers' retain?
Balotelli still won't be fit, so Lambert will probably start up front for the third consecutive match. There's a slight chance three games in six days is a bridge too far and Borini's preferred, but Rodgers' treatment of Gerrard suggests he's more than willing to do similar with Lambert. Both the diamond, with either Sterling or Borini, or the 4-3-3/4-2-3-1, are possibilities.
Will Gerrard start again? My default answer is "probably," because we've seen no evidence to the contrary. And if he does, will he go back to playing as deepest midfielder? Also probably, although I hope not. But I'll continue to guess as such until Rodgers demonstrates otherwise.
Will Johnson keep his place, preferred to either Moreno or Manquillo? Again, I hope not. Moreno's seemingly fit – we haven't heard otherwise and he came on as the lone sub at Ludogorets – but he's been left out of the starting XI for the last two matches. Manquillo, 20 years old, new to English football and to starting regularly, seemingly has a better chance of being rested than either Gerrard or Lambert. But, of course, I'd still rather both than Johnson.
Will Lovren come back into the side? Sakho's also still injured, and Toure wasn't awe-inspiring against Ludogorets, but I'd think I'd still rather an extended run for Toure and for Lovren to remain on the bench, in the corner, to think about what he's done.
Lallana, Coutinho, and Can are fresh, and could all start if Rodgers truly rotates. Neither Lallana nor Coutinho played especially well when both used at Palace, but I'm still not sure it's an either/or situation, especially if Sterling's still plagued by the stomach virus that saw him substituted against Ludogorets. Markovic's also an option out wide if Sterling's absent, although he wasn't even in the squad on Wednesday. If Sterling, Lallana, and Coutinho are all available and involved, Henderson and Can are competing for the same spot, and we know who's winning that argument.
Long story short, as usual, your guess is as good as mine. Liverpool will keep throwing different things at the wall in the hopes something sticks.
Stoke still frighten, Stoke still provoke the PTSD from Pulls' time in charge, but Stoke are not the same side anymore. Their clean sheet drought is even longer than Liverpool's, their only win since October 19 was against Tottenham, with three losses and two draws during the stretch, including a 1-2 defeat against Burnley. Which was just Burnley's second win of the campaign and first away from home.
Mark Hughes' side plays the same 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 hybrid they did last season, but with Bojan Krkic and Mame Biram Diouf as the main attackers, relegating Crouch to the substitutes' bench. Incidentally, both are very good on the counter, which Diouf proved to excellent effect in the 1-0 win at Manchester City early in the campaign. I'm sure Liverpool fans will have fond memories of Victor Moses, Charlie Adam, and Oussama Assaidi, but Moses has a thigh problem and Adam and Assiaidi haven't started since October 25th and September 23th respectively.
Besides Moses, Huth and Odemwingie will be out injured, while Begovic, Cameron, Bardsley, Pieters, and Wilson are all be subject to late decisions. The first three are reportedly ill, the last two back in training, so I suspect all will be available to start. Which would make Stoke's likely XI: Begovic; Bardsley, Shawcross, Cameron, Pieters; N'Zonzi, Sidwell; Walters, Bojan, Arnautovic; Diouf. If Begovic's out, Sorenson. If Cameron's out, Muniesa, who'd also be Pieters' replacement, or Wilson. Cameron could also play at right-back if needed. Stoke could be missing a lot of players, especially in defense, and subsequently struggle to cope, or they could deploy a near-strength XI.
Either way, knowing where Liverpool are at the moment, I'm certain it won't be easy. Nothing (except for Tottenham) has been easy this season.
Tomorrow is Liverpool's last chance to win in November, without a victory since beating Swansea in the League Cup on October 28. It's a less effective statistic now that Liverpool actually took a point in the Champions League on Wednesday, but the "haven't lost five consecutive matches since 1953" stat is still valid if you only consider the league.
There were a few and far between signs of optimism on Wednesday, despite the complaints, despite only taking one point, and despite the late goal conceded. Now, back at Anfield and back to league play – where they're still slowly slipping down the table – Liverpool need to build on those few positives. And it has to happen quickly.
Last four head-to-head:
5-3 Liverpool (a) 01.12.14
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.17.13
1-3 Stoke (a) 12.26.13
0-0 (h) 10.07.12
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Ludogorets (a); 1-3 Palace (a); 1-2 Chelsea (h)
Stoke: 1-2 Burnley (h); 2-1 Tottenham (a); 2-2 West Ham (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Own Goal, Sterling 3; Gerrard 2; Can, Coutinho, Henderson, Lallana, Lambert, Moreno, Sturridge 1
Stoke: Diouf, Walters 3; Adam, Crouch 2; Bojan, Moses, Shawcross 1
Referee: Craig Pawson
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Skrtel Lovren Moreno
Gerrard
Henderson Coutinho
Lallana Lambert Sterling
What changes from Wednesday's match at Ludogorets will Rodgers' retain?
Balotelli still won't be fit, so Lambert will probably start up front for the third consecutive match. There's a slight chance three games in six days is a bridge too far and Borini's preferred, but Rodgers' treatment of Gerrard suggests he's more than willing to do similar with Lambert. Both the diamond, with either Sterling or Borini, or the 4-3-3/4-2-3-1, are possibilities.
Will Gerrard start again? My default answer is "probably," because we've seen no evidence to the contrary. And if he does, will he go back to playing as deepest midfielder? Also probably, although I hope not. But I'll continue to guess as such until Rodgers demonstrates otherwise.
Will Johnson keep his place, preferred to either Moreno or Manquillo? Again, I hope not. Moreno's seemingly fit – we haven't heard otherwise and he came on as the lone sub at Ludogorets – but he's been left out of the starting XI for the last two matches. Manquillo, 20 years old, new to English football and to starting regularly, seemingly has a better chance of being rested than either Gerrard or Lambert. But, of course, I'd still rather both than Johnson.
Will Lovren come back into the side? Sakho's also still injured, and Toure wasn't awe-inspiring against Ludogorets, but I'd think I'd still rather an extended run for Toure and for Lovren to remain on the bench, in the corner, to think about what he's done.
Lallana, Coutinho, and Can are fresh, and could all start if Rodgers truly rotates. Neither Lallana nor Coutinho played especially well when both used at Palace, but I'm still not sure it's an either/or situation, especially if Sterling's still plagued by the stomach virus that saw him substituted against Ludogorets. Markovic's also an option out wide if Sterling's absent, although he wasn't even in the squad on Wednesday. If Sterling, Lallana, and Coutinho are all available and involved, Henderson and Can are competing for the same spot, and we know who's winning that argument.
Long story short, as usual, your guess is as good as mine. Liverpool will keep throwing different things at the wall in the hopes something sticks.
Stoke still frighten, Stoke still provoke the PTSD from Pulls' time in charge, but Stoke are not the same side anymore. Their clean sheet drought is even longer than Liverpool's, their only win since October 19 was against Tottenham, with three losses and two draws during the stretch, including a 1-2 defeat against Burnley. Which was just Burnley's second win of the campaign and first away from home.
Mark Hughes' side plays the same 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 hybrid they did last season, but with Bojan Krkic and Mame Biram Diouf as the main attackers, relegating Crouch to the substitutes' bench. Incidentally, both are very good on the counter, which Diouf proved to excellent effect in the 1-0 win at Manchester City early in the campaign. I'm sure Liverpool fans will have fond memories of Victor Moses, Charlie Adam, and Oussama Assaidi, but Moses has a thigh problem and Adam and Assiaidi haven't started since October 25th and September 23th respectively.
Besides Moses, Huth and Odemwingie will be out injured, while Begovic, Cameron, Bardsley, Pieters, and Wilson are all be subject to late decisions. The first three are reportedly ill, the last two back in training, so I suspect all will be available to start. Which would make Stoke's likely XI: Begovic; Bardsley, Shawcross, Cameron, Pieters; N'Zonzi, Sidwell; Walters, Bojan, Arnautovic; Diouf. If Begovic's out, Sorenson. If Cameron's out, Muniesa, who'd also be Pieters' replacement, or Wilson. Cameron could also play at right-back if needed. Stoke could be missing a lot of players, especially in defense, and subsequently struggle to cope, or they could deploy a near-strength XI.
Either way, knowing where Liverpool are at the moment, I'm certain it won't be easy. Nothing (except for Tottenham) has been easy this season.
Tomorrow is Liverpool's last chance to win in November, without a victory since beating Swansea in the League Cup on October 28. It's a less effective statistic now that Liverpool actually took a point in the Champions League on Wednesday, but the "haven't lost five consecutive matches since 1953" stat is still valid if you only consider the league.
There were a few and far between signs of optimism on Wednesday, despite the complaints, despite only taking one point, and despite the late goal conceded. Now, back at Anfield and back to league play – where they're still slowly slipping down the table – Liverpool need to build on those few positives. And it has to happen quickly.
27 November 2014
Visualized: Liverpool 2-2 Ludogorets
Previous Match Infographics: Crystal Palace (a), Chelsea (h), Real Madrid (a), Newcastle (a), Hull (h), Real Madrid (h), QPR (a), West Brom (h), Basel (a), Everton (h), West Ham (a), Ludogorets (h), Aston Villa (h), Tottenham (a), Manchester City (a), Southampton (h)
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
As it's a holiday here in the US – and I've got a mountain of cooking to do – and I'm all out of rants after yesterday's match review, this will be shorter than usual. Unsurprisingly, in the cold light of a new day, I'm far less angry than I was at full time, but there are still a few things that merit mentioning. And, unsurprisingly, they're things we've mentioned before.
Rodgers took a lot of heat for his post-match comments, including from me, but he had a point. A draw is little different from a win for Liverpool's chances of qualification. Despite conceding twice, Liverpool were more resilient than we've seen in the four previous losses. Playing for the counter-attack in a difficult away venue makes sense; Ludogorets had already beaten Basel at home, and gave Madrid a fright after scoring first. If you're playing for the counter, starting Gerrard further forward makes sense, especially given how he's played in a deeper role this season and regardless of how baffling it was that he stayed on for the full 90 minutes. I'm still very angry about the lack of in-game changes, but that's been a constant critique of Rodgers since he became Liverpool manager.
Liverpool were out-shot 11 times in the league last season, which is actually more than I expected before looking up the numbers. Liverpool have already been out-shot in seven of the 17 matches in the Premier League and Champions League this season. And five of those seven matches were the last five matches Liverpool have played. Four losses, one draw, and zero wins. That's probably not coincidence.
The amount of opposition shots is similar in the two seasons – 12.6 allowed last season, 12.4 allowed this season – but Liverpool are averaging nearly four fewer shots per match. That's four fewer opportunities for a side that's already weakened up front.
I understand that Liverpool weren't going to get a ton of shots when sitting deep and playing for the counter-attack after scoring the second. And given where Liverpool are at this moment in time, playing for the counter-attack and shelling is understandable, even if Liverpool are fairly awful at shelling. Liverpool played for the counter and were out-shot but still won in matches against Villa (a), Sunderland (a), Southampton (a), Tottenham (h), and City (h) last season. But it's symptomatic of an ongoing problem, most noticeably during this recent winless streak. Liverpool do not shoot enough to score enough to compensate for an error-prone defense that's bad at defending set plays.
So what did Liverpool do well? Liverpool actually took three whole shots inside the six-yard box, resulting in two goals. That's more six-yard box shots than Liverpool took in the previous six matches in the Premiership and Champions League combined (one against Palace and one against Hull, none in the two matches against Real or against Chelsea and Newcastle). Six matches, you may remember, that Liverpool failed to win. For the first 60 minutes, Liverpool pressed well, making seven of their nine tackles in Ludogorets' half during that span (Gerrard and Sterling two; Lucas, Allen, and Lambert one). Lambert scored for the second-straight game – the first time any Liverpool player has done so this season – and did well as a target-man, evidenced by the amount of passes attempted and completed despite Liverpool playing for the counter-attack for long stretches and his involvement in the above passing network. Kolo Toure was better than Lovren has been (quelle surprise), and even though Lucas committed too many fouls (the referee did not help) and remains worse in a two-man midfield than when he's the sole defensive midfielder, Liverpool seemed more secure than when Gerrard's played there. Despite the shot disparity and despite the horrific two goals conceded, Liverpool did fairly well limiting dangerous chances from open play. Six of Ludogorets' 18 shots came in the dangerous zone, but only the opening goal – from yet another Mignolet error – and Dani Abalo's wild, not-even-close volley came from open play.
But, yet again, both of the opposition goals came from clear-cut chances: one from an individual error, one from a set play. Liverpool's opponents averaged 1.37 clear-cut chances in the league last season; it's up to 1.91 this season. Even worse, Liverpool averaged just over three of their own clear-cut chances last season, and are averaging just 1.08 this season – although both of Liverpool's goals also came from clear-cut chances, another marginal improvement.
But, yet again, there's still too much "same shit, different day" despite the marginal improvement in performance and result. Because of set play failures, because of individual errors, because of the inability to create clear chances or take a reasonable amount of shots. Improvement will only come incrementally, and this may well be a start, but I'm getting really sick of "same shit, different day."
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
As it's a holiday here in the US – and I've got a mountain of cooking to do – and I'm all out of rants after yesterday's match review, this will be shorter than usual. Unsurprisingly, in the cold light of a new day, I'm far less angry than I was at full time, but there are still a few things that merit mentioning. And, unsurprisingly, they're things we've mentioned before.
Rodgers took a lot of heat for his post-match comments, including from me, but he had a point. A draw is little different from a win for Liverpool's chances of qualification. Despite conceding twice, Liverpool were more resilient than we've seen in the four previous losses. Playing for the counter-attack in a difficult away venue makes sense; Ludogorets had already beaten Basel at home, and gave Madrid a fright after scoring first. If you're playing for the counter, starting Gerrard further forward makes sense, especially given how he's played in a deeper role this season and regardless of how baffling it was that he stayed on for the full 90 minutes. I'm still very angry about the lack of in-game changes, but that's been a constant critique of Rodgers since he became Liverpool manager.
Liverpool were out-shot 11 times in the league last season, which is actually more than I expected before looking up the numbers. Liverpool have already been out-shot in seven of the 17 matches in the Premier League and Champions League this season. And five of those seven matches were the last five matches Liverpool have played. Four losses, one draw, and zero wins. That's probably not coincidence.
The amount of opposition shots is similar in the two seasons – 12.6 allowed last season, 12.4 allowed this season – but Liverpool are averaging nearly four fewer shots per match. That's four fewer opportunities for a side that's already weakened up front.
I understand that Liverpool weren't going to get a ton of shots when sitting deep and playing for the counter-attack after scoring the second. And given where Liverpool are at this moment in time, playing for the counter-attack and shelling is understandable, even if Liverpool are fairly awful at shelling. Liverpool played for the counter and were out-shot but still won in matches against Villa (a), Sunderland (a), Southampton (a), Tottenham (h), and City (h) last season. But it's symptomatic of an ongoing problem, most noticeably during this recent winless streak. Liverpool do not shoot enough to score enough to compensate for an error-prone defense that's bad at defending set plays.
So what did Liverpool do well? Liverpool actually took three whole shots inside the six-yard box, resulting in two goals. That's more six-yard box shots than Liverpool took in the previous six matches in the Premiership and Champions League combined (one against Palace and one against Hull, none in the two matches against Real or against Chelsea and Newcastle). Six matches, you may remember, that Liverpool failed to win. For the first 60 minutes, Liverpool pressed well, making seven of their nine tackles in Ludogorets' half during that span (Gerrard and Sterling two; Lucas, Allen, and Lambert one). Lambert scored for the second-straight game – the first time any Liverpool player has done so this season – and did well as a target-man, evidenced by the amount of passes attempted and completed despite Liverpool playing for the counter-attack for long stretches and his involvement in the above passing network. Kolo Toure was better than Lovren has been (quelle surprise), and even though Lucas committed too many fouls (the referee did not help) and remains worse in a two-man midfield than when he's the sole defensive midfielder, Liverpool seemed more secure than when Gerrard's played there. Despite the shot disparity and despite the horrific two goals conceded, Liverpool did fairly well limiting dangerous chances from open play. Six of Ludogorets' 18 shots came in the dangerous zone, but only the opening goal – from yet another Mignolet error – and Dani Abalo's wild, not-even-close volley came from open play.
But, yet again, both of the opposition goals came from clear-cut chances: one from an individual error, one from a set play. Liverpool's opponents averaged 1.37 clear-cut chances in the league last season; it's up to 1.91 this season. Even worse, Liverpool averaged just over three of their own clear-cut chances last season, and are averaging just 1.08 this season – although both of Liverpool's goals also came from clear-cut chances, another marginal improvement.
But, yet again, there's still too much "same shit, different day" despite the marginal improvement in performance and result. Because of set play failures, because of individual errors, because of the inability to create clear chances or take a reasonable amount of shots. Improvement will only come incrementally, and this may well be a start, but I'm getting really sick of "same shit, different day."
26 November 2014
Liverpool 2-2 Ludogorets
Goals:
Dani Abalo 3'
Lambert 8'
Henderson 37'
Terziev 88'
I am running out of ways to write "you are an embarrassment and you are awful, Liverpool, and I hate you."
That was an absolute shambles from start to finish.
The start? Ludogorets ahead within three minutes when they countered straight through Allen and Lucas, and Mignolet spilled a speculative shot straight to Dani Abalo.
The finish? Liverpool unable to hold onto its tenuous one-goal lead, conceding from yet another set play – the ninth out of the 29 goals Liverpool conceded (yeah, I thought it'd be more) – when Moreno, on as a substitute, lost his man for the initial cross and Glen Johnson lost his man for the second ball. It might have been the most Liverpool goal ever conceded, and it was this season perfectly encapsulated.
In between, Liverpool were gifted an equalizer and had a couple moments of competence. Liverpool's first was as bad as Ludogorets' first: Moti dawdling in defense, allowing Lambert to sneak in for a ball that should have been cleared long before. Liverpool's second actually made me remember last season, a quick counter from Lambert to Sterling to Henderson: a striker winning possession in the opposition half, a speedy run and perfect cross from the flanks, a late dash into the box for a tap-in.
But on the whole, Liverpool simply weren't good enough against mediocre opposition. As against Aston Villa, West Ham, Basel, Hull, Newcastle, and Crystal Palace.
At least Rodgers tried something different with the starting formation? Lovren finally dropped, Gerrard moved further forward, Lucas and Toure brought back into the side, and a switch to the lopsided 4-2-3-1 formation with Henderson and Sterling wide that we saw at times in 2012-13.
But we still had Glen Johnson. We still had a team devoid of confidence, demonstrated early on with Mignolet's baffling error. We had Gerrard huffing and puffing his way through the full 90 minutes, despite being used in a more advanced role.
More infuriating than the result, performance, or starting XI was Brendan Rodgers' inability or unwillingness to change things in the second half.
It is insane to try to sit deep and hold onto a one-goal lead with 32-year-old Lambert and 34-year-old Gerrard up front, especially sitting deep with this defense. It is insane to make no substitutions until the 81st minute in a midweek match with players obviously tired, especially with the two aforementioned players as your main outlets. You had Coutinho and Lallana and Borini and Can on the bench – all rested, all mobile, all decent on the counter – and you went with what you had. And my only explanation for that is because you were seemingly scared of the alternative.
Brendan Rodgers is managing like a man terrified: afraid to remove Gerrard, afraid to drop Johnson, afraid to make any substitutions until the last 10 minutes, when he replaced Liverpool's one speedy attacker (who, to be fair, reportedly had a stomach problem) with a defender, which helped push Liverpool even deeper. Moreno is probably the fastest player that Liverpool had on the bench, but he's still a defender.
The Gerrard decision is the most baffling. I completely understand trying to use him further forward. It's obvious he wasn't working as the deepest midfielder in this team in this system with this defense, and Liverpool had to experiment with something different to try to escape from the current rot. But I do not understand leaving him on for the final 10, 15, 30 minutes, when it's clear he wasn't linking up well with Lambert as the rest of the side retreated, with Gerrard unable to press Ludogorets' midfielders and defense, with players like Coutinho and Lallana clearly better alternatives for the situation Liverpool was in. And playing 90 minutes today after 90 minutes on Sunday will almost certainly affect his performance this weekend, when he'll almost certainly start again.
Meritocracy may well be dead. I eagerly await Gerrard playing for 90 minutes against Stoke like a man with cinder blocks tied to his ankles.
I'll continue to argue against firing Rodgers, because Liverpool's summer signings suggest a long-term plan, because Sturridge's absence really has been one of Liverpool's biggest issues, because I still think it would cause more damage than it'll fix, and, yes, because of last season. But Brendan's making it harder and harder.
There are just two positives from today.
One, Rickie Lambert actually did okay as a target-man, winning most of the long balls forward from defense and holding play up well. Unfortunately, he had Steven Gerrard and little else to aim for, with Sterling progressively deeper as Ludogorets pushed Liverpool back in the second half.
Two, somehow, someway, Liverpool can still qualify for the knockout rounds with a home win over Basel in two weeks. I guess sometimes a point away from home in the Champions League is good enough, even if today's draw feels like yet another loss.
Neither Liverpool nor Basel nor Ludogorets, who were eliminated with today's draw, deserve to qualify for the next round. But one of them will, and Liverpool, because they're at Anfield, are arguably best placed to do so.
You know, if they can actually win a match. For a change.
Dani Abalo 3'
Lambert 8'
Henderson 37'
Terziev 88'
I am running out of ways to write "you are an embarrassment and you are awful, Liverpool, and I hate you."
That was an absolute shambles from start to finish.
The start? Ludogorets ahead within three minutes when they countered straight through Allen and Lucas, and Mignolet spilled a speculative shot straight to Dani Abalo.
The finish? Liverpool unable to hold onto its tenuous one-goal lead, conceding from yet another set play – the ninth out of the 29 goals Liverpool conceded (yeah, I thought it'd be more) – when Moreno, on as a substitute, lost his man for the initial cross and Glen Johnson lost his man for the second ball. It might have been the most Liverpool goal ever conceded, and it was this season perfectly encapsulated.
In between, Liverpool were gifted an equalizer and had a couple moments of competence. Liverpool's first was as bad as Ludogorets' first: Moti dawdling in defense, allowing Lambert to sneak in for a ball that should have been cleared long before. Liverpool's second actually made me remember last season, a quick counter from Lambert to Sterling to Henderson: a striker winning possession in the opposition half, a speedy run and perfect cross from the flanks, a late dash into the box for a tap-in.
But on the whole, Liverpool simply weren't good enough against mediocre opposition. As against Aston Villa, West Ham, Basel, Hull, Newcastle, and Crystal Palace.
At least Rodgers tried something different with the starting formation? Lovren finally dropped, Gerrard moved further forward, Lucas and Toure brought back into the side, and a switch to the lopsided 4-2-3-1 formation with Henderson and Sterling wide that we saw at times in 2012-13.
But we still had Glen Johnson. We still had a team devoid of confidence, demonstrated early on with Mignolet's baffling error. We had Gerrard huffing and puffing his way through the full 90 minutes, despite being used in a more advanced role.
More infuriating than the result, performance, or starting XI was Brendan Rodgers' inability or unwillingness to change things in the second half.
It is insane to try to sit deep and hold onto a one-goal lead with 32-year-old Lambert and 34-year-old Gerrard up front, especially sitting deep with this defense. It is insane to make no substitutions until the 81st minute in a midweek match with players obviously tired, especially with the two aforementioned players as your main outlets. You had Coutinho and Lallana and Borini and Can on the bench – all rested, all mobile, all decent on the counter – and you went with what you had. And my only explanation for that is because you were seemingly scared of the alternative.
Brendan Rodgers is managing like a man terrified: afraid to remove Gerrard, afraid to drop Johnson, afraid to make any substitutions until the last 10 minutes, when he replaced Liverpool's one speedy attacker (who, to be fair, reportedly had a stomach problem) with a defender, which helped push Liverpool even deeper. Moreno is probably the fastest player that Liverpool had on the bench, but he's still a defender.
The Gerrard decision is the most baffling. I completely understand trying to use him further forward. It's obvious he wasn't working as the deepest midfielder in this team in this system with this defense, and Liverpool had to experiment with something different to try to escape from the current rot. But I do not understand leaving him on for the final 10, 15, 30 minutes, when it's clear he wasn't linking up well with Lambert as the rest of the side retreated, with Gerrard unable to press Ludogorets' midfielders and defense, with players like Coutinho and Lallana clearly better alternatives for the situation Liverpool was in. And playing 90 minutes today after 90 minutes on Sunday will almost certainly affect his performance this weekend, when he'll almost certainly start again.
Meritocracy may well be dead. I eagerly await Gerrard playing for 90 minutes against Stoke like a man with cinder blocks tied to his ankles.
I'll continue to argue against firing Rodgers, because Liverpool's summer signings suggest a long-term plan, because Sturridge's absence really has been one of Liverpool's biggest issues, because I still think it would cause more damage than it'll fix, and, yes, because of last season. But Brendan's making it harder and harder.
There are just two positives from today.
One, Rickie Lambert actually did okay as a target-man, winning most of the long balls forward from defense and holding play up well. Unfortunately, he had Steven Gerrard and little else to aim for, with Sterling progressively deeper as Ludogorets pushed Liverpool back in the second half.
Two, somehow, someway, Liverpool can still qualify for the knockout rounds with a home win over Basel in two weeks. I guess sometimes a point away from home in the Champions League is good enough, even if today's draw feels like yet another loss.
Neither Liverpool nor Basel nor Ludogorets, who were eliminated with today's draw, deserve to qualify for the next round. But one of them will, and Liverpool, because they're at Anfield, are arguably best placed to do so.
You know, if they can actually win a match. For a change.
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