31 March 2014

Visualized: Liverpool 4-0 Tottenham

Previous Match Infographics: Sunderland (h), Cardiff (a), Manchester United (a), Southampton (a), Swansea (h), Fulham (a), Arsenal (h), West Brom (a), Everton (h), Aston Villa (h), Stoke (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Manchester City (a), Cardiff (h), Tottenham (a), West Ham (h), Norwich (h), Hull City (a), Everton (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), West Brom (h), Newcastle (a), Crystal Palace (h), Sunderland (a), Southampton (h), Swansea (a), Manchester United (h), Aston Villa (a), Stoke (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.


It's another game whether we question how good Liverpool were versus how bad the opposition was.

That's not to take anything away from Liverpool; it was an emphatic result with some excellent individual performances, the team once again set up perfectly by Rodgers, but Tottenham were really really really really really really really *gasps for air* really really really really bad.

It starts with Tactics Tim. There's the usual "why play a high line without midfield pressing" question. You know, the exact same problem that doomed Tottenham in the reverse fixture. That was exacerbated by using Eriksen on the wing and Chadli as the #10, even though they're best in the opposite positions, and with starting Sigurðsson and Bentaleb in central midfield, leaving both Sandro and Dembele on the bench. All three decisions were wholly baffling, and partly led to Liverpool's first three goals.

For the first, Liverpool passed and passed and passed, with all the time in the world, with neither Sigurðsson nor Bentaleb closing down players in the center of the pitch. Then, after Liverpool found the weak spot (hint: never give Coutinho that much time and space), Eriksen wholly failed to track Johnson's obvious run. 1-0, within two minutes, and well on the way to game over. Unlike in other matches – say, midweek against Sunderland – it never felt as if Tottenham could come back from that stomach punch.

For the second, Tottenham's high line succumbed following individual mistakes; there was no covering defender once Suarez outmuscled Kaboul following Dawson's silly back pass, but to be fair, Dawson should have never, ever played that back pass. Ever.

And for the third, Liverpool aptly demonstrated that pressing from the front matters little if you've no control in midfield or defense. The front four pushed Henderson backwards, and challenged Mignolet, Skrtel, Agger, and Flanagan, but when Flanagan spun upfield, Liverpool swiftly took advantage of Spurs' flawed shape, charging straight through Tottenham's tender underbelly with defenders retreating haphazardly.

The malaise continued with individual performances. None of Tottenham's players, save Lloris, looked like they wanted to be anywhere near Anfield. That admittedly had something to do with the early goal, a reminder of just how bad December 15 was, and how that very much could and probably would happen again. That Rose decided to milk an injury to waste time with Tottenham down four goals in the final minutes summed up his, and for the most part, Tottenham's, attitude by the end of the match. 'Just don't let them score five. Just get me out of here.'

You couldn't tell Liverpool's dominance or Tottenham's ineptitude from most of the statistics. Yes, Liverpool monopolized control of the ball, evident in the passing and possession totals, but last season aptly demonstrated that winning passing and possession battles doesn't win you the war. It wasn't the authoritative attacking display we've become accustomed to in the big wins; just 11 shots in totals, only four shots (and none of the goals that came from Liverpool shots) from DANGER ZONE! positions. Tottenham took more shots, had more shots in prime positions, created more chances, won more corners, attempted more crosses, and had almost the exact same number of attacking third passes as Liverpool. That's what an early goal, soon followed by a second goal, can do. After the second, then the third, Liverpool could just sit back and not do anything stupid, which is why Liverpool took just two shots in the final 35 minutes. Cruise control.

The 24 passes in the buildup to Liverpool's first goal, not counting Johnson's unsuccessful low cross, equalled the most in a scoring move so far this season. The last time Liverpool played 24 passes before scoring? The fifth goal at White Hart Lane back in December. Lots and lots of passes in Liverpool's half and the middle third, patiently probing for an opening, then whoops, defense torn asunder. There's just something about Tottenham. It probably has something to do with Tottenham's high line coupled with a refusal to press in midfield. As has been written time and time and time again, that's not a good combination.

Liverpool set multiple records yesterday. Suarez, with 29 goals, is Liverpool's top scorer in a Premiership season, ahead of Fowler's 28 in 1995-96. And yes, it's worth reminding that he missed the first five games, and there are still six matches left. In scoring four for the 11th time this campaign, Liverpool now have the most 4+ goal games in a Premiership season. Liverpool's 47 goals at Anfield are also a new club record in the Premier League era. Liverpool have long surpassed their most goals in a Premier League – which were the 77 in 2008-09 – and are still on pace to catch Chelsea's record 103 in 2009-10.

Finally, I was asked in the comments yesterday why I thought that Sterling was Liverpool's man of the match. That's another thing that won't show up in the statistics. If you have a subscription to LFC.tv, I highly recommend watching this, but if not, this video from Mostar will also suffice. Don't forget to hit mute.

30 March 2014

Liverpool 4-0 Tottenham

Goals:
Kaboul OG 2'
Suarez 25'
Coutinho 55'
Henderson 75'

So, December's 5-0 win at White Hart Lane wasn't a fluke. But, then again, after 4-0 Everton, 5-1 Arsenal, and 3-0 United, maybe that shouldn't have been a concern.

Once again, Liverpool reverted to the 4-3-3, with Sterling in place of Allen, a fluid front three looking to annihilate Spurs' high line, mistake prone defense. And once again, Liverpool ruthlessly demolished an opponent at Anfield straight from the opening whistle. Yes, a bit of good fortune, and a bit of help from the opposition's tactics, but Liverpool taking full advantage, and not for the first time.

They were ahead within two minutes thanks to patient buildup to draw Spurs out of position, a brilliant cross-field ball from Coutinho to Sterling into open space, Johnson on the overlap crossing into the six-yard box, the pass haplessly fumbled by Kaboul into his own net with Sturridge threatening to cause havoc behind him.

All those memories of December's mauling rekindled within 100 seconds, for both sides. Liverpool heartened, Tottenham crushed. 100 seconds played, and it looked as if it'd finish with whatever scoreline Liverpool desired. Now you're gonna believe us.

It took Liverpool 15 fewer minutes to get the second than it did in the reverse fixture, Suarez mercilessly seizing on yet another Tottenham mistake. Dawson had just come on for Vertonghen, Spurs' best defender laid low through injury, and it was Dawson's inane back pass that released Suarez on goal, out-muscling the massive Kaboul, racing onto Lloris, and finishing from a narrow angle with his supposedly weaker foot.

Today's first two goals of the season were Tottenham's 16 and 17 errors leading to a goal this season. Liverpool had to take advantage, Liverpool are more than good enough to take advantage, but Tottenham certainly helped.

Despite their bumbling, Tottenham had a chance to close the gap, as any remotely decent side will. Even United had a chance before halftime at Old Trafford, Rooney denied by Mignolet. Today's heart-stopping moment came through Eriksen, just after Suarez struck, fed by Naughton's center, but Skrtel somehow recovered to block his goal-bound shot. The commentators yelped that the block was a good as a goal, and that was no exaggeration.

Last week against Sunderland swung back into the memories. 2-0 is great and all, but just one from the opposition, no matter how poor they'd been, can change everything. Liverpool needed the third. And it appeared Liverpool had that third just before halftime: pressing Tottenham into yet another mistake, Sterling's cross finding a wide open Suarez at the back post, a bullet header from the league's top scorer. Somehow, Lloris pushed the effort onto the crossbar, bouncing just in front of the goal line rather than beyond it. Cue woodwork complaints. But this isn't last season, or the season before. Liverpool won't be stopped by an unforgiving goal frame.

But Liverpool still had work to do after the interval. And, in this season's fashion, they went about doing so, despite Spurs making two minor, but needed changes: putting Eriksen in the center and Chadli wide (why Sherwood started with the opposite is beyond me), and much more furious, if out-of-shape, pressing from the front four. In previous matches, we'd seen Liverpool play their way into trouble when building from the back despite opposition pressure, some breakdown between the four defenders or Mignolet. Not today. Passes between Agger, Skrtel, and Mignolet despite forwards closing down, an indescribably sumptuous turn from Flanagan to shift to attack, then a blistering run and center for Coutinho, charging at the defense before unleashing a worm-burning shot from the top of the box. I'm still not sure whether the play out of defense or Coutinho's shooting accuracy made me happier.

At 2-0, despite all that'd come before it, Spurs still had a chance. At 3-0, it's game over. Liverpool settled into the usual routine of soaking up pressure then countering at pace, bringing on Allen and Lucas for Coutinho and Gerrard, with both Suarez and Sturridge threatening a fourth. Which finally came from a free kick, a carbon copy of Henderson's goal in the 6-0 win over Newcastle last season: a dangerous set play from the left channel, whipped in for someone to get a touch, but on frame in case no one got that touch. No one got that touch. That Suarez, rather than trying to claim it, immediately pointed and ran to Henderson, aptly demonstrates how much of a team this is.

Liverpool sat back for the final 15 minutes, conserving energy, killing the game, still keeping half an eye on potential counter-attacks. Tottenham took eight shots in those final 15 minutes, more than half of their total. Liverpool continued to defend well – three more crucial blocks, one outstanding save from Mignolet – but the story remained as much about Tottenham's continuing ineptitude, off-target with four of those efforts. It ended as Liverpool's third clean sheet in the last five games. They had just eight in the first 27 of the season. I'm sure it's only coincidence that Liverpool's had the same back four in all five of those matches.

Liverpool's front three were a swarm of bees: Suarez, Sturridge, and Sterling constantly switching position, causing confusion, drawing defenders out of position, pressing furiously. Liverpool's midfield, as in the best performances this season, was perfectly balanced: aiding the pressing but keeping the shape, supporting the attack and bolstering the defense. Johnson and Flanagan both got involved in attacks but got back to defend, Agger and Skrtel imperiously cleared or blocked everything.

Sterling wasn't especially involved in Liverpool's goals – although he made an intelligent move into space in the buildup for the first – but was, by far, today's man of the match. It's amazing to think he's still only 19. Enough of "he'll be a hell of a player in a few years." He's already a hell of player: strong, speedy, and smart. We saw it when he ran at Tottenham defenders, we saw it in his pressing and off-the-ball movement, we saw it when he held off the much-bigger Dembele when defending near his own corner flag, we saw it when he shifted to the point of the diamond after Allen replaced Coutinho. Sterling's potential has no ceiling, and we're already seeing the fruits of it.

But, as in the previously mentioned best matches of the season, every player did his part, as did the manager, as did the fans. Liverpool entered the pitch to a cacophony of noise. In recent seasons, that'd unsettle the team, the pressure crushing rather than encouraging. In recent seasons, Liverpool would drop points when their rivals dropped points, unable to fully perform with all eyes on them. Not today. Not this team.

And so, after 90 minutes, Liverpool left the pitch to a cacophony of noise, a cacophony of hopeful cheers, with six games remaining in this unbelievable season.

29 March 2014

Liverpool v Tottenham 03.30.14

11am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
5-0 Liverpool (a) 12.14.13
3-2 Liverpool (h) 03.10.13
1-2 Tottenham (a) 11.28.12
0-0 (h) 02.06.12

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Sunderland (h); 6-3 Cardiff (a); 3-0 United (a)
Tottenham: 3-2 Southampton (h); 2-2 Benfica (a); 0-1 Arsenal (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 28; Sturridge 20; Gerrard 11; Sterling 7; Skrtel 6; Coutinho, Henderson 3; Agger, Flanagan, Moses, Sakho 1
Tottenham: Adebayor 8; Soldado 6; Eriksen 5; Paulinho, Sigurðsson 4; Capoue, Chadli, Chiriches, Defoe, Dembele, Holtby, Lennon, Sandro, Townsend, Walker 1

Referee: Phil Dowd

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Skrtel Sakho Flanagan
Gerrard
Henderson Coutinho
Suarez Sturridge Sterling

This won't be like Liverpool's last two matches. Tottenham will not try to defend like either Cardiff or Sunderland. There will be no five-man defense, no bus parking. I don't think Tim Sherwood knows what bus parking is.

No matter which formation Tottenham deploys, no matter Tottenham's attacking personnel, they will use the width of the pitch, and try to get at either or both of Liverpool's fullbacks. Which means that it seems a good time to revert to the 4-3-3, the formation which allowed Liverpool to hand Tottenham its own ass back in December.

Sterling has the ability to both protect Flanagan and hurt Tottenham; Henderson can similarly do a defense job when needed to shift out to the right, as it won't be Suarez or Sturridge tracking back that often. In this formation and with this XI, Liverpool could both break at pace and play incisive passes. Although, yes, they've the potential to do that in any formation. The other possible change, which was also mooted for Wednesday, would be Sakho for Agger, in theory, better in the air against Adebayor or Soldado, and on set plays. And there remains the worry about Agger's ability to play three matches in a week.

That said, Rodgers does have a tendency to stick with what's working, rotation or opposition be damned. So don't be surprised if it's an unchanged XI tomorrow for the third consecutive game, no matter how leggy Liverpool looked late in the match against Sunderland. Or, still the diamond, but with Sterling in place of Coutinho, given the former's pace and the fact that the latter played a full 90 minutes on Wednesday.

At the same time, predicting what Sherwood will do seems a fool's errand. I don't think TIm Sherwood knows what Tim Sherwood's gonna do, and that applies for more than just Tottenham's XI or tactics. Spurs do have options: in midfield and attack, even if Sherwood's hands are slightly tied in defense.

It could be 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2; we've seen both formations against "big clubs" this season, both home and away. It could be either Adebayor or Soldado up front, or both. Any two from Dembele, Bentaleb, Sandro, Paulinho could start in midfield. Eriksen, Lennon, Chadli, Townsend, and Sigurðsson are options on the flanks; Eriksen and Sigurðsson, or one of the central midfielders, can also play as the #10. There will be late fitness tests for Dembele and Adebayor, although I suspect both will be available. Michael Dawson is back from injury, and could replace Kaboul in defense. However, Walker, Capoue, Lamela, and Chiriches will remain absent.

So your guess is as good as mine, and probably as good as Tactics Tim's. That said, my shot in the dark is: Lloris; Naughton, Kaboul, Vertonghen, Rose; Bentaleb, Dembele; Lennon, Eriksen, Chadli; Adebayor.

Tottenham's responded well to adversity in both of their last two matches: Spurs scored twice in a minute (both from Chadli) to nearly get back into a Europa League tie against Benfica that looked far out of hand. Last weekend, Tottenham overhauled a two-goal deficit to beat Southampton 3-2, after looking haplessly insipid for the first 30. Unlike against Liverpool, the second goal didn't kill the match, and Christian Eriksen was the epicenter, scoring Tottenham's first two before setting up Sigurðsson's late winner. And he's almost certainly tomorrow's danger man, whether as the #10 up against Gerrard, or on the left up against Glen Johnson.

But the first two goals that Tottenham conceded a week ago aptly demonstrate how error prone they can be, often deploying a high line defense that can be ripped asunder. And Liverpool is a side that can take full advantage of those facets, as we saw when these sides last met.

Put the foot straight onto the neck, as Southampton did. But then don't let up. If you want a vision of tomorrow's ideal future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face. Forever.

27 March 2014

Visualized: Liverpool 2-1 Sunderland

Previous Match Infographics: Cardiff (a), Manchester United (a), Southampton (a), Swansea (h), Fulham (a), Arsenal (h), West Brom (a), Everton (h), Aston Villa (h), Stoke (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Manchester City (a), Cardiff (h), Tottenham (a), West Ham (h), Norwich (h), Hull City (a), Everton (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), West Brom (h), Newcastle (a), Crystal Palace (h), Sunderland (a), Southampton (h), Swansea (a), Manchester United (h), Aston Villa (a), Stoke (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.


FYI: For formality's sake, here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.

Just enough firepower to avoid what happened at West Brom, just enough defense and decent tactics to avoid what happened at Hull. It wasn't comfortable by any means, but it's a win, and yes, that's all that matters.

Last week, against a five-man defense, we lauded Liverpool's attack, and – more specifically – Liverpool's shot selection. Nine of Liverpool's 19 efforts, including all six goals, came from prime positions. Yesterday? Just four of Liverpool's 21 shots, with none of them ending up in the net. That's 19%. The only match with a smaller percentage? Liverpool's 1-3 loss at Hull, with just one of nine shots coming from either the six-yard box or the middle of the 18-yard box. Coincidentally, Hull also played five at the back, and Liverpool's only goal that day came from a Gerrard free kick. But even though Liverpool conceded one unnecessary goal yesterday, they didn't make the copious mistakes which plagued that 1-3 loss back in December.

In the six previous matches during this winning streak, Liverpool's percentage of shots from prime positions was 54.5%, 38.1%, 38.1%, 42.7%, 47.1%, and 47.4%. The season-long average prior to yesterday's match was 39.8% of all shots from either the six-yard box or the middle of 18-yard box. Sunderland's defense gave Liverpool very little, but it was also disappointing to see players settle for long-range efforts rather than patiently wait for the gaps to appear, which is what led to Liverpool's first and fourth goals last Saturday.

Liverpool didn't take a shot from inside the box until the second half, Liverpool's ninth attempt of the match. Those first eight in the first half? Six off-target, one blocked, and Gerrard's wonderful free kick. One of eight attempts on-target. Yikes. And Rodgers clearly wasn't happy with it, as Liverpool made much more effort to get into the box in the second half, with nine of 13 second-half shots coming from inside the area.

To a certain extent, it was just 'one those matches.' Both Suarez and Sturridge had multiple efforts that they'd usually put on frame, if not score from. But it also aptly demonstrates the differences between Sunderland's five at the back and Cardiff's.

For all intents and purposes, Sunderland were a "broken team," with eight defenders and three attackers. Cardiff's midfield, with just one holding midfielder, linked play far better; Mutch, getting forward from midfield, was involved in all three goals. Neither Bridcutt nor Cattermole, regardless of the latter's awkwardly shinned strike off the woodwork in the 71st minute, will ever play that way. Sunderland, away from home, were much more determined to park the bus.

And it worked, for a while, to a certain extent. Liverpool had acres of space and hours of time to build play through midfield, but struggled to make any headway at all in the final third – compare the attacking third passes in the last two matches – and all too often settled for shots from distance. The "easier" option. Thanks to Gerrard's free kick and Sturridge's deflected effort – a bit of quality and a bit of luck – it didn't work well enough, but still worked better than most have fared against Liverpool's attack, especially at Anfield. Credit to Poyet, as that's the first time Sunderland had ever played with five at the back under his tenure, and in doing so, defended far better than Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side on Saturday. And gave his team a much better chance of getting something from the game in the dying stages.

Not for the first time this season, Liverpool are in debt to their ability on attacking set plays. Gerrard's free kick was the fifth direct free kick scored this season: three for Suarez, two for Gerrard. Liverpool have now scored 21 goals from set plays this season: exactly a quarter of Liverpool's goals in total.

That's a fairly large amount, and they've often come at crucial times: three set play goals in the 3-3 draw at Everton, the opening goal against Chelsea (even if Liverpool went on to lose that match), the first goal in the mauling against Everton, the first two goals in the mauling against Arsenal. Nine of the 21 set play goals were the first goal scored in the match. 11 of them gave Liverpool a lead, while three were equalizers.

But what set plays giveth, set plays taketh away. Defending them remains a bit of a fright, with Flanagan caught ball-watching for Ki's consolation, and O'Shea with a free header in the 86th minute after evading Skrtel, fortunately steering it off-target. 10 of Liverpool's 39 goals conceded have been from set plays, almost exactly the same percentage as Liverpool have scored from set plays. And once again, we're pointing out individual defensive errors rather than looking at team-wide failure or lauding the opposition's play, even if Flanagan losing Ki doesn't go down as an official 'error leading to a goal' in Opta's statistics.

Finally, it was baffling to see Rodgers use only one substitution, even though Liverpool played four days earlier and have another match in four days' time. Rodgers and the technical staff are far, far, far, far, far more aware of the players' condition than we are, but it was still baffling, with everyone bar Suarez, Henderson, and Sterling (who came on in the 77th minute) seemingly fatigued over the final 15 minutes. Coutinho, Liverpool's man of the match yesterday, completed 90 minutes for just the 13th time in 23 starts this season. And that would explain both Liverpool's drop in tempo in final 30 minutes and Sunderland having the chance to get back into the game.

I'm both curious and nervous to see how the side copes and reacts against Tottenham.

25 March 2014

Liverpool v Sunderland 03.26.14

4pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
3-1 Liverpool (a) 09.29.13
3-0 Liverpool (a) 01.02.13
1-1 (h) 09.15.12
0-1 Sunderland (a) 03.10.12

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 6-3 Cardiff (a); 3-0 United (a); 3-0 Southampton (a)
Sunderland: 0-2 Norwich (a); 0-0 Palace (h); 0-3 Hull (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 28; Sturridge 19; Gerrard 10; Sterling 7; Skrtel 6; Coutinho, Henderson 3; Agger, Flanagan, Moses, Sakho 1
Sunderland: A Johnson 7; Borini, Fletcher, Giaccherini 3; Bardsley, Colback, Gardner, Ki 2; Altidore, O'Shea 1

Referee: Kevin Friend

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Skrtel Sakho Cissokho
Gerrard
Henderson Lucas
Coutinho
Sturridge Suarez

Two questions.

1) Now that Liverpool are back at Anfield, will Rodgers persist with the 4-4-2 diamond or revert to the 4-3-3?

2) How much will the manager rotate with this being Liverpool's first midweek match in more than a month?

As for the first: I've no idea. I suspect that it'll be the same formation as in the last three matches, despite the issues against Cardiff (and, to a lesser extent Southampton), but I wouldn't be surprised to see the opposite either. Rodgers, like most managers, has a tendency to stick with the devil he knows, but Liverpool will also want to go straight for Sunderland's jugular the moment the whistle blows, and including Sterling and playing with three up top may be a better way to do so.

As for the second: I suspect there will be some. As usual, we just don't know how many. Lucas, Sakho, and maybe Cissokho are the contenders. Agger, Allen, and Flanagan all had issues on Saturday, at least partly responsible for Cardiff scoring three. Permanent concerns about Agger's fitness, about Agger's ability to play three games in a week, means that Sakho is the most likely change. That Cissokho came on for Flanagan against Cardiff may also be telling. Finally, I'm not sure how Lucas fits into the diamond, with Gerrard unquestionably playing at the base, but I'm beginning to go through the first phase of Lucas withdrawal so let's find out.

Otherwise, Sterling seems the only other potential change, either for Coutinho in the 4-4-2 diamond or Allen if it's 4-3-3. Mignolet, Johnson, Skrtel, Gerrard, Henderson, Sturridge, and Suarez are as nailed-on as possible. And – as I always do when the shoe's on the other foot – it's worth nothing that both Henderson and Mignolet will be facing their former club.

And that former club's not had the best of seasons, at least in the league.

Sunderland's last league win came on February 1, in the Tyne-Wear Derby. Since then, three losses and a draw, while also going out of both the League and FA Cups (albeit in the final of the former). Prior to this ignominious streak, Poyet's side was unbeaten in eight in all competitions, but the current slide has seen them slip back into the relegation zone, level on points with Liverpool's last opponent although with a better goal difference, and still three points from safety.

Sunderland will also have to cope with an entirely new left flank. Borini can't play due to the terms of his loan, while Marcos Alonso is suspended after being sent off on Saturday. Giaccherini or Scocco would be like-for-like replacements for Borini, although Poyet could also shift Johnson to the left and play Larsson on the right. Sunderland have three options at left-back: Colback, who's primarily a midfielder but has deputized at full-back before; Celutska, primarily a right-back but capable on the left; or Dossena, who you may remember, but hasn't played in a league match since December.

Which makes the most likely XI something like: Mannone; Bardsley, O'Shea, Brown, Colback; Bridcutt, Ki; Johnson, Larsson, Giaccherini; Altidore. The USMNT striker's not had the best of times at Sunderland, but the Mackems have little choice with Borini ineligible and Fletcher likely to miss out with an ankle injury. The only other option is Connor Wickham, recently recalled from his loan at Leeds (where he registered zero goals in five games) because of Sunderland's lack of firepower. No matter the personnel, Poyet will play 4-2-3-1.

Take absolutely nothing for granted. No matter Liverpool's record at home, no matter Sunderland's record of late. The Mackems are fighting for their Premier League lives, and desperately need to wipe away the pervasive stink of failure at Norwich. Even considering how the final hour played out, you can't forget Liverpool's first 30 minutes at Cardiff.

Eight cup finals remain, and Liverpool can't be complacent in any of them.

---
Meta: Like Swansea, Norwich, and Fulham, there probably won't be a match review because damn you work. If the match does seem to require a write-up, it won't be until very late at night, but most likely, it'll be combined with the usual post-match infographic the next day.

24 March 2014

Visualized: Liverpool 6-3 Cardiff City

Previous Match Infographics: Manchester United (a), Southampton (a), Swansea (h), Fulham (a), Arsenal (h), West Brom (a), Everton (h), Aston Villa (h), Stoke (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a), Manchester City (a), Cardiff (h), Tottenham (a), West Ham (h), Norwich (h), Hull City (a), Everton (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), West Brom (h), Newcastle (a), Crystal Palace (h), Sunderland (a), Southampton (h), Swansea (a), Manchester United (h), Aston Villa (a), Stoke (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.


Once again, it's all about Liverpool's attack. Six more goals, for 82 on the season, by far the most they've scored in the Premier League era, and there are still eight games left to play. Right now, Liverpool are on pace to beat Chelsea's record total in 2009-10; they scored 103 that season, an average of 2.71 goals per game. Right now, Liverpool are averaging 2.73 goals per game.

Liverpool scored those six goals from just nine shots on target, just 19 shots in total. Because Liverpool have two of the best strikers in the world, and because Liverpool are taking the vast majority of their shots from prime shooting positions.

Breaking down a packed defense can be troublesome, as we've seen time and time again in previous seasons (and, at times, earlier this season). But despite playing against a five-man defense for the majority of the match, Liverpool still got into fabulous shooting positions. And took ruthless advantage.

That's been the case in almost every match during this six-game win streak.


DANGER ZONE.

16 of those 20 goals, including all six of yesterday's, came from either the six-yard box or the middle of the 18-yard box. 15 of those 16 were less than 12 yards from goal. But it's not as if this is a new habit; 40% of Liverpool's shots all season have come from those two areas (204 of 512), and it's led to 59 of Liverpool's 82 goals. When you get into those positions – either because Suarez and Sturridge are magicians (see: goals five and six on Saturday) or because you can pass the opposition to death (see: goals one and four on Saturday) – you're going to score fairly often.

And Luis Suarez scores more than fairly often. In the last two years, Suarez has six Premier League hat-tricks: his first came at Norwich in April 2012, two last season, and three this season. During that span, no other player has more than two: Robin van Persie, who notched them in September and April last season. 15 players have one. Luis Suarez has six. That's incomprehensible.

But for all that attacking prowess, there's something to complain about in each of Liverpool's goals conceded. The first two were especially troublesome as Cardiff had started the better side, exploiting the gaps Liverpool left in both midfield and defense.

Despite those gaps, the first goal was almost solely down to an individual error. Allen had stopped the move, tackling Fabio and recovering possession. But under only a modicum of pressure, he passed straight to Campbell rather than the open Flanagan, catching the left back on the back foot. Now, Flanagan, Allen, Agger, Skrtel, and Gerrard were out of position. And both Campbell then Mutch took advantage. Liverpool remain the most error-prone team in the division, with 34 errors leading to a shot; Arsenal are catching up, with 32, while Norwich and Fulham are tied for third with 25. Liverpool are 'lucky' that they've only been punished for nine of them. Tottenham have committed 22 errors, but 15 have led to goals, while Arsenal and Norwich's errors have led to ten goals each.

The second, however, was all about those gaps, as Liverpool Offside thoroughly covered yesterday. There's little to add to that, except that it's worth pointing out just how far Agger's out of position, marking the same man that Skrtel's marking, ignoring Campbell just as much as Gerrard did, and recovering too late to meaningfully hinder Campbell's effort.

Both the first and second goals exploited Liverpool's left flank. For all the deserved praise of Flanagan and Allen after the last two matches, that demonstrates they've still some way to go before being as consistent as Liverpool need. Yes, Flanagan's still quite young. Yes, Allen's not long back from an extended injury. Yes, both have been better more often than they've been worse. But I wouldn't be surprised to see either or both rotated against Sunderland on Wednesday.

And Cardiff's third goal demonstrated that even a bound-for-relegation side which had scored just 23 goals in the 29 previous matches can cut you open if you grant them the opportunity. 7% of Cardiff successful passes in the entire match came in the move leading up to their final goal. 16 completed passes, in the space of about one minute. Yes, Liverpool were comfortably ahead. Yes, they'd spent a fair amount of energy in the previous 87 minutes to be in that position. But allowing the opposition that much time and space, with only Sterling attempting to tackle a player in possession, remains annoying. And very much preventable. Even at that point in the match, goal difference matters.

It was yet another example of "Score three? Fine, we'll just score more than you." We've said over and over that can't keep happening, that Liverpool can't remain this potent, can't remain this resilient. But it has. Just make sure it keeps happening for eight more matches.

22 March 2014

Liverpool 6-3 Cardiff City

Goals:
Mutch 9' 88'
Suarez 16' 60' 90+6'
Campbell 25'
Skrtel 41' 54'
Sturridge 75'

You can see the progression over the last few months ago. In January, a very similar match ended 2-2 against Aston Villa. In February, it ends 3-2 at Fulham, thanks to a fortuitous late penalty. In March, it ends with an absolutely mad 6-3 at Cardiff.

Liverpool's resiliency, Suarez and Sturridge's potency, and a helpful dose of Skrtel on set plays. In spite of recurring midfield messes and defensive mistakes.

Like against Villa and Fulham (and at Stoke, at West Brom, and v Swansea), Liverpool started off terribly, pushed back by errant passing and a wide open midfield. Liverpool's most impressive performances – against Arsenal and Everton, in the last two away matches – have seen a compact, disciplined midfield, keeping the shape before launching its attacks, leaving enough players behind to prevent opposition attacks but also pressing the ball both in the attacking third and the middle of the pitch.

But today, like those aforementioned five matches, Liverpool's midfielders left insanely large gaps. Unlike against Fulham, this was more due to Liverpool dropping too deep, seemingly afraid of Cardiff after allowing three chances in the first five minutes. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing. But when you drop deep, you have to keep the shape; you can't just charge around the defensive third chasing the ball and hoping for the best.

The first goal started with a quick Cardiff transition, but Allen should have seen it off when dispossessing Fabio. However, the midfielder missed Flanagan with his pass, instead finding Frazier Campbell. The striker strolled to the flank and fed Mutch, who'd ambled away from an out-of-position Gerrard and with the captain unable to close down, smashing a perfectly placed shot from the top of the box that Mignolet had no chance at.

The second came with Mutch passing through Liverpool's static midfield, Campbell having pulled into space behind an unaware Gerrard, with both Agger and Skrtel marking Bellamy and Flanagan caught upfield marking Fabio. Either press the ball in midfield or drop deep enough to mark the striker. You have to do one of those two things. But no. And maybe both center-backs don't try to mark the same player. So Campbell ran at a recovering Agger, cut around him, and again placed a shot into the far corner. Both goals were well-taken, but both came far too easily.

Sandwiched between Cardiff's goals was Suarez's first, set up by Henderson's excellent ball to an overlapping Johnson, and Johnson's low centered cross for a Suarez tap-in. A first equalizer should have been enough, but how would Liverpool respond to needing a second?

Fairly well, thank you. "Even when we're not good, we're still going to score more than you." And so they did. Two set play goals; a pass-pass-pass-pass oops-we've-broken-your-defense fourth, and then two blitzkrieg counters. And a regrettable, but ultimately meaningless, consolation conceded.

Liverpool's second, Skrtel's first, wasn't wholly a set play goal, but it might as well go down as one. Cardiff cleared Coutinho's corner, but cleared it straight to the Brazilian, who immediately crossed back into the box. Skrtel's run was immaculate, intuitively breaking between three defenders to reach the ball first, just outside the six-yard box.

The second was a more orthodox set play goal, albeit with a fair amount of controversy, with both Mutch and Theophile-Caterine off the pitch, having been treated for injuries in the build-up. And Liverpool took advantage, with Skrtel beating his marker to Coutinho's corner and directing the header well past Marshall.

That was that. Liverpool wouldn't give Cardiff a chance to get a third until the result was well out of sight. Six minutes after taking the lead, Liverpool had a fourth: patient build-up, Henderson and Johnson again combining just before the goal, Johnson's low cross deflected but fortunately falling to Sturridge, whose first-touch back-heel into space was indescribably brilliant, somehow telepathically knowing that Suarez would find it. Sometimes, there are just no words to do those two justice.

And they reversed roles 15 minutes later, as Suarez's tasmanian devil work rate forced Caulker into misplaying Johnson's ball over the top, charging into the box before centering between two defenders to meet Sturridge in stride, yet another Liverpool goal scored from six yards out.

The last 15 minutes seemed a formality, with Liverpool threatening on a couple of quick attacks but somehow contriving to foul them up, until Cardiff found a consolation. The build-up should embarrass Liverpool's defense: Theophile-Caterine allowed to cross to an open Jones, who headed across to an open Mutch. But Liverpool responded just before full-time, similar to their last goal, with Suarez terrorizing Cala into misplaying a hopeful long ball, then tearing at Marshall, villainously teasing him into committing (and ignoring Sterling) before poking home.

These games aren't doing my heart any good. Liverpool may be mistake-prone in midfield and defense, but Liverpool remain very good in attack, and fairly decent on set plays as well. It's the 17th time (in 30 matches) where Liverpool have scored at least three, the 10th time they've scored at least four, and the 5th time they've scored at least five. That's unfathomable.

More importantly, Liverpool believe. Liverpool know they're capable of something truly special. And even when Liverpool disappoint, when Liverpool start badly, when Liverpool suffer setbacks, Liverpool somehow respond.

21 March 2014

Liverpool at Cardiff 03.22.14

11am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
3-1 Liverpool (h) 12.21.13
2-2 [3-2 on penalties] Liverpool (n; League Cup) 02.26.12
2-1 Liverpool (h; League Cup) 10.31.07
0-4 Cardiff (h) 12.19.59

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-0 United (a); 3-0 Southampton (a); 4-3 Swansea (h)
Cardiff: 1-2 Everton (a); 3-1 Fulham (h); 0-1 Tottenham (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 24; Sturridge 18; Gerrard 10; Sterling 7; Skrtel 4; Coutinho, Henderson 3; Agger, Flanagan, Moses, Sakho 1
Cardiff: Campbell 5; Caulker, Mutch 4; Whittingham 2; Bellamy, Kim, Cala, Gunnarsson, Jones, Noone, Odemwingie 1

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Liverpool have lost all three Premier League matches that Neil Swarbrick has refereed.

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Skrtel Agger Flanagan
Gerrard
Henderson Allen
Coutinho
Sturridge Suarez

Will Rodgers stick with the 4-4-2 diamond after consecutive 3-0 away victories, or revert to a 4-3-3 formation?

If it's the diamond – which seems slightly more likely, solely because Rodgers is often hesitant to change a winning formula – then the only lineup question seems Sterling or Coutinho. That Liverpool will most likely monopolize the ball, pinning Cardiff deep and needing to cut through a packed defense, makes me think Coutinho is more likely, with Sterling's pace available off the bench if needed when legs begin to tired. More the thought process against Southampton rather than the thought process against Manchester United.

If it's 4-3-3, then the question is over the third midfielder. The front three would be some blend of Suarez, Sturridge and Sterling. Henderson and Gerrard appear certain starters regardless of formation. So the choice would be Coutinho or Allen, and as in the 4-4-2 diamond, I expect Coutinho would get the nod for his throughballs and general creativity. Although it is worth noting that's the exact front six which struggled so mightily at West Brom, the last time Liverpool failed to win a league match. And also the same front six which scored five against Arsenal. So, yeah.

I still don't expect either Lucas or Sakho to come back into the side just yet. Not with the midfield and defense playing the way that they have. Liverpool have three games in the next 10 days. We'll most likely see both of them start at least one of those matches, but I doubt it'll be tomorrow with the way the team's worked of late. No one changes a defense that's kept successive clean sheets away from home unless they have to.

According to most models, Cardiff have an 80-90% chance of being relegated, even though they're just three points and goal difference from safety. They've won only one of their last seven matches, at home against 20th-placed Fulham two weeks ago. Which, of course – given my propensity for pessimism – makes me think this is more of a Hull City/West Brom-style trap game than a nailed-on hammering.

Cardiff have used five at the back in two of the last three matches: at Tottenham and Everton, although Solskjaer switched to the more familiar 4-1-4-1 after 20 or so minutes against Everton. And it's understandable why. Try like hell to prevent an opposition goal, hope to nick one or two against better opposition on either a counter-attack or set play. More defenders maybe, hopefully, mean better defending, etc etc. Cardiff have allowed more shots on target than any other side this season, a large reason why they're currently in the relegation zone, despite the frequent heroics of David Marshall.

If it's 4-1-4-1, the XI will most likely be Marshall; Theophile-Caterine, Caulker, Cala, John; Medel; Noone, Kim, Whittingham, Mutch; Campbell. If it's five at the back, Fabio probably comes in for Noone, with Theophile-Caterine at center-back and Mutch playing centrally off Campbell. Ben Turner will be subject to a late fitness test, and could replace Juan Cala in the 4-1-4-1 or Theophile-Caterine in the 5-3-2 if available.

Marshall has been Cardiff's best player; without their keeper, Cardiff would have even fewer points. No keeper has made more saves this season, but, again, no keeper has faced more shots on target either. Craig Noone always gets a bit of press prior to Liverpool matches, born on Merseyside, and you may have heard that he once worked on Gerrard's roof. You'll probably hear it six or seven more times tomorrow. And then there's Craig Bellamy. If he plays, he'll provoke the usual ex-Liverpool player fear, but he's more likely to appear off the bench.

Thanks to a scheduling quirk, this will be Liverpool's third successive away match. They've ostensibly done the hard part by beating Southampton and United, but the cliche holds true. There are no easy matches, not at this stage of the season. You can point to Liverpool's away failings earlier in the campaign, or the recent Chelsea v Aston Villa example. Thankfully, Liverpool – at least from their public quotes, not to mention their form since the New Year – seem well aware of just how crucial every game is. Nine more cup finals…