10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports
Last four head-to-head:
0-2 Newcastle (a) 12.06.15
2-0 Liverpool (h) 04.13.15
0-1 Newcastle (a) 11.01.14
2-1 Liverpool (h) 05.11.14
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 4-0 Everton (h); 2-1 Bournemouth (a); 4-3 Dortmund (h)
Newcastle: 1-1 City (h); 3-0 Swansea (h); 1-3 Southampton (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Firmino 9; Coutinho 8; Benteke, Sturridge 7; Origi 5; Lallana 3; Henderson, Ings, Lallana 2; Allen, Can, Clyne, Moreno, Sakho, Skrtel, Toure 1
Newcastle: Wijnaldum 9; Mitrovic 8; Ayoze 6; Townsend 3; Cisse, Lascelles 2; Anita, Coloccini, Dummett, Sissoko 1
Referee: Martin Atkinson
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Sakho Moreno
Milner Stewart
Ojo Lallana Coutinho
Sturridge
Even though Liverpool again had a midweek match – albeit one with fewer exertions than recent Europa League fixtures – I doubt we'll see the same highly-rotated side that featured against Stoke and Bournemouth.
Not only are there five days between this and Villarreal, compared to the usual four, but Liverpool's options are increasingly limited in both midfield and attack with Origi joining Henderson and Can on the casualty list and Benteke still a week or two away from returning (if Benteke even returns).
There will be changes, but not as many as we've come to expect.
As usual, the questions start up front. Can we trust consecutive starts for Sturridge, up front against both Newcastle and Villarreal after 40 minutes against Everton? I think we'll have to. Really, the only other option is reverting to Firmino as false nine, which we haven't seen since the 2-2 draw with Sunderland in early February. At the same time, Firmino's the only player to start the last four games. And he's looked it, failing to impress against either Bournemouth or Everton.
So, my guess is it comes down to just a couple of personnel questions in the familiar 4-2-3-1 formation. Will Milner or Allen partner Stewart or Lucas in midfield? I suspect Allen's more useful off the bench, while Milner's in outstanding form, and I remain skeptical of consecutive starts for Lucas, which would almost certainly lead to three starts in eight days at Villarreal. Will it be Ojo or Ibe in the attacking line of three to give Firmino a break? Ibe was much more impressive against Bournemouth, and also looked good in his short cameo against 10-men very-beaten Everton, but Ojo remains bags of potential and bags of fun, and more capable of playing on the right opposite Coutinho on the left. Maybe there's also a defensive change or two, whether Toure or Skrtel at center-back or Flanagan or Smith at full-back, but that seems less likely.
There's also the small matter of welcoming Rafa Benitez back to Anfield tomorrow, for the second time as an opposition manager. I will remain biased until the end of my days, and still can't help wishing Benitez well, still can't help getting angry at every media and opposition supporter dig. His previous return to Anfield with Chelsea in 2012-13 was, uhhhhh, interesting, with Liverpool twice equalizing after Chelsea goals, the second in injury-time from Luis Suarez after he'd already bitten Branislav Ivanovic.
And there's also the small matter of Newcastle actually playing a bit of decent football in their last two matches – a 3-0 win over Swansea and 1-1 draw against Manchester City – giving them a glimmer of hope in their attempt to avoid relegation. But they need more points, quickly. two points and -1 goal difference from 17th-place Norwich with just four games to play.
They're not yet a Rafa Benitez side, but they've had a few more moments of looking almost like a Rafa Benitez side if you squint hard enough. At least against Manchester City, where an organized side held City at bay for long stretches, equalizing soon after Agüero's very-offside early opener, with a disjointed second half ending as Newcastle the stronger, more-likely-to-win side. Newcastle had lost the last 12 (twelve!) league matches against Manchester City before Tuesday's draw. They'll play compact, deny the opposition space, battle for loose balls, work hard, ugly up the game, and counter-attack every so often. Which is, ideally for them, basically a better organized, more Rafa Benitez version of what we saw when these two sides met in December.
Because there's also the small matter of Newcastle embarrassing Liverpool in the reverse fixture, where absolutely nothing went right – one of those abysmal shooting performances, an own goal from Skrtel, a perfectly good goal from Moreno chalked off, a too-easy counter-attack Newcastle second in added time – which remains one of Liverpool's most disappointing performances and results under Klopp.
However, Newcastle still haven't taken any points away from home – not even a draw – since beating Tottenham (Tottenham!) on December 13. Since then, ten consecutive losses, at West Brom, Arsenal, Watford (FA Cup), Watford, Everton, Chelsea, Stoke, Leicester, Norwich, and Southampton. They've failed to score in six of the ten.
If Newcastle stick with the same XI we've seen in the last two matches, it'll be: Darlow; Anita, Mbemba, Lascelles, Dummett; Tiote, Colback; Townsend, Sissoko, Ayoze; Cisse. The only difference between the Swansea win and City draw was Ayoze Perez for Wijnaldum.
I wouldn't been surprised to see Wijnaldum return, but otherwise, Newcastle have few options. Shelvey's all but been excommunicated, Saivet's infrequently featured since joining from Bordeaux, and Mitrovic's been used as a substitute more often than as a starter. They still have massive injury problems in goal and defense, with the top two keepers (Krul and Elliott) out injured, as well as Coloccini, Steven Taylor, Haidara, and Janmaat.
I'm pleased to see Rafa back in the Premier League, and hope he wins every fixture but this one, even if that means Newcastle stay up. But this ain't a testimonial. It'll be a tough match against a side that desperately needs points to avoid relegation versus a side in surprisingly good form, especially at home, and wants to keep it that way. Liverpool need to keep winning, need to keep playing to the level they've hit over the last three weeks, even if there are again multiple changes to the XI. And, not for the first time, Liverpool owe Newcastle.
22 April 2016
21 April 2016
Visualized: Liverpool 4-0 Everton
Previous Match Infographics: Bournemouth (a), Dortmund (h), Stoke (h), Dortmund (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)
Chances are that you will never, ever see that level of humiliation in a Merseyside Derby again.
6-0 wouldn't have flattered Liverpool. 8-0 wouldn't have flattered Liverpool. Everton were outclassed, then outgunned, then embarrassed, then gave up. That it finished just 4-0 is another demonstration that Liverpool's finishing isn't where we'd like it to be. 37 shots – the most Liverpool have taken in a league match since August 2004, an average of a shot every 2.43 minutes – with just three goals, 19 of those shots from outside the box, clear-cut chances by both Lallana and Firmino saved in the first 30 minutes. Only five of Liverpool's 18 shots inside the box were on-target: three goals and the two saved clear-cut chances. Everton were down to 10 men and playing with two central midfielders as center-backs for the final half-hour and Liverpool only added one more goal, an outside-the-box strike from Coutinho which Sturridge is still trying to claim because it brushed his backside.
Here I am, "complaining" about Liverpool's finishing after the most comfortable of Merseyside Derby wins, after scoring four goals for the third time in the last three home matches. What a world we live in.
The list of mind-boggling, utter domination statistics is nearly endless.
While Liverpool took 37 shots, Everton took just three, the last in the 31st minute. Lukaku, Everton's attacking centerpiece, who'd averaged 3.0 shots per 90, 0.70 goals per 90, and 1.4 key passes per 90 in his first five matches against Liverpool for Everton, registered none of those things. All three of Everton's shots came from outside the box, none were on-target. Simon Mignolet could have spent the 90 minutes sat in a lounge chair, blind drunk on daiquiris, for all that he mattered to this match. A +34 shot differential is simply unconscionable, regardless of Everton reduced to 10 men for the last 40 of yesterday's minutes.
The fewest shots Liverpool had allowed this season prior to yesterday was four, versus West Brom. As you'll probably remember, Liverpool conceded twice, on two set plays, and drew 2-2 thanks to Origi's exceptionally fortunate 96th-minute equalizer. The last time Liverpool allowed just three shots in a league match was February 2013, the 5-0 win over Swansea (Chelsea took just two in the home leg of last year's League Cup semi-final, scoring with Hazard's penalty). And Swansea at least put two of their three shots on-target, took two of their three shots inside the 18-yard box. Everton did neither, limited to three half-cocked counter-attacking chances from outside the box, two well-off target from Mirallas, one blocked from Barkley. Everton's best chance saw them fail to take a shot, with Sakho's wonderful, timed-to-the-millisecond tackle on Lukaku in the 21st minute after the striker looked like getting clear. Maybe it's a different game if Lukaku gets away. It's definitely a least a little different if Sakho's slightly earlier or later with his tackle. But he wasn't. And that was it from Everton.
Those are the only times I've seen just three opposition shots in the league since starting these infographics in 2012-13. 147 Premier League matches. It's happened twice.
Put another way: four different Liverpool players – Coutinho, Sturridge, Lallana, and Moreno – took more shots than Everton.
Even in the early stages, long before Liverpool's first two goals or Funes Mori's red card, Liverpool controlled possession, created chances – the best the counter-attack long passes to Lallana and Firmino, but others after sustained control of play – and limited Everton to marginal opportunities. And they did so with a two-man midfield of Lucas and Milner, a personnel decision which absolutely terrified me when announced. Up against Barkley? Lukaku on the counter? Eek. Which again shows what little I know.
Meanwhile, 10 of Liverpool's 13 outfield players registered a key pass. 12 of 13 took at least one shot; the only who didn't, James Milner, created eight (!!!) chances, including two clear-cut chances, and had two assists. Milner's eight chances were the most created by a Liverpool player in any match since Luis Suarez in the aforementioned 5-0 win over Swansea in February 2013. That's the only time it's happened since I began these infographics in 2012-13.
Five key passes in one match? Not that uncommon: Milner, Coutinho, Lallana, Moreno, Firmino, Can, and Ibe have all hit that mark this season. Six? Milner, Coutinho, Can, and Moreno. Seven? Milner and Coutinho. Eight? Just Hamez Thrillner.
Incidentally, Milner also created seven chances against Dortmund, registering two assists while taking no shots, starting in a two-man central midfield. As he did yesterday. File this one under: "Things I didn't expect to work which are actually working." Yet both of his assists yesterday came from open play crosses, as did his assist for Origi's first against Stoke. He's somehow invented a new central midfielder + winger position, able to do so because Stewart against Stoke and Lucas against Everton offered enough protection in case of counter-attack – not that either opposition offered much of a counter-attack. Of the 14 goals that Liverpool have scored in the last four games, Milner's had the assist on six of them, as well as the assist for Origi's goal at Dortmund five games ago. Woof.
Origi's now averaging a goal or assist every 103 minutes in all competitions, Sturridge is averaging a goal or assist every 111 minutes in all competitions (88.75 in the league), Milner's averaging a goal or assist every 146 minutes in all competitions, Coutinho's averaging a goal or assist every 155 minutes, Firmino's averaging a goal or assist every 159 minutes (111 in the league). Liverpool are scoring open play goals and set play goals. Counter-attack goals, possession goals, pressing goals, crossing goals. When Liverpool's attack is in form, Liverpool's attack is actually good. Surprisingly good. And it could and probably should have been even better yesterday.
Everton's red card certainly exacerbated matters, but Liverpool were well on their way to a rout before Funes Mori's attempted manslaughter. Liverpool had outshot Everton 16-3 prior to the two quick goals just before halftime. The shot count was 18-3 before Funes Mori committed ALL THE EVIL. In a Merseyside Derby. It's seemingly never just a matter of time with Liverpool, but it truly seemed just a matter of time before Liverpool pulled away from a very much below-par Everton. And it was.
Everton clearly aren't in a good place right now. The defense, rarely Roberto Martinez's strongest area, is in a very bad place: two important defenders – Jagielka and Coleman (no, not Tony Hibbert) – were injured (which led to the odd idea that it was a good idea to play a one-footed left-back at right-back up against Coutinho and Moreno), Funes Mori saw red, Stones had to go off with "stomach cramps". They ended the match with Besic and McCarthy as center-backs. They've had a player sent off in four of the last eight matches. They're now winless in six, only two points above 16th place, with multiple blogs and forums calling for Martinez to be sacked just days before an FA Cup semi-final.
But the last time Everton lost a league match by four goals was the last time Liverpool beat them 4-0 at Anfield in January 2014. And that's the only other time they've lost by four under Roberto Martinez. The last non-Liverpool four-goal loss for Everton? 0-5 at Benfica in October 2009, in that season's Europa League. Ah, the days of David Moyes in Europe. And the last time it happened in the Premier League was two months earlier, 1-6 against Arsenal on opening day of 2009-10. Both of those losses were more than six years ago.
And, as mentioned above (and I'll keep mentioning it!), Liverpool have scored four goals in each of the last three home games: 4-3 Dortmund, 4-1 Stoke, and 4-0 Everton. That sort of streak hasn't happened since 2013-14, when Liverpool scored four, four, and five against West Brom, Fulham, and Norwich, then four, five, and four against Everton, Arsenal, and Swansea later that season. But not counting the Suarez-led aberration which was 2013-14, the last time Liverpool scored at least four in three successive home games was January 1996, against Nottingham Forest (4-2), Rochdale (7-1), and Leeds (5-0). More than 20 years ago. Divock Origi was just nine months old.
Including the 2-1 win at Bournemouth, Liverpool have now scored 14 goals in the last four matches. As a reminder – although I suspect you still remember – Liverpool didn't score its 14th goal this season until October 28th, in the 15th match of the season. Four matches after Brendan Rodgers was relieved of his managerial duties.
It's all coming together. An indescribably emphatic victory over the next door neighbors after an April of good results. It's all coming together at a very good time, despite the difficult-at-times season so far, despite playing some very tough matches during this stretch, despite injuries to some very important players.
But that, after the three weeks we've seen before, can't be the capstone to Liverpool's season. There's still much more to play for over the next month.
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)
Chances are that you will never, ever see that level of humiliation in a Merseyside Derby again.
6-0 wouldn't have flattered Liverpool. 8-0 wouldn't have flattered Liverpool. Everton were outclassed, then outgunned, then embarrassed, then gave up. That it finished just 4-0 is another demonstration that Liverpool's finishing isn't where we'd like it to be. 37 shots – the most Liverpool have taken in a league match since August 2004, an average of a shot every 2.43 minutes – with just three goals, 19 of those shots from outside the box, clear-cut chances by both Lallana and Firmino saved in the first 30 minutes. Only five of Liverpool's 18 shots inside the box were on-target: three goals and the two saved clear-cut chances. Everton were down to 10 men and playing with two central midfielders as center-backs for the final half-hour and Liverpool only added one more goal, an outside-the-box strike from Coutinho which Sturridge is still trying to claim because it brushed his backside.
Here I am, "complaining" about Liverpool's finishing after the most comfortable of Merseyside Derby wins, after scoring four goals for the third time in the last three home matches. What a world we live in.
The list of mind-boggling, utter domination statistics is nearly endless.
While Liverpool took 37 shots, Everton took just three, the last in the 31st minute. Lukaku, Everton's attacking centerpiece, who'd averaged 3.0 shots per 90, 0.70 goals per 90, and 1.4 key passes per 90 in his first five matches against Liverpool for Everton, registered none of those things. All three of Everton's shots came from outside the box, none were on-target. Simon Mignolet could have spent the 90 minutes sat in a lounge chair, blind drunk on daiquiris, for all that he mattered to this match. A +34 shot differential is simply unconscionable, regardless of Everton reduced to 10 men for the last 40 of yesterday's minutes.
The fewest shots Liverpool had allowed this season prior to yesterday was four, versus West Brom. As you'll probably remember, Liverpool conceded twice, on two set plays, and drew 2-2 thanks to Origi's exceptionally fortunate 96th-minute equalizer. The last time Liverpool allowed just three shots in a league match was February 2013, the 5-0 win over Swansea (Chelsea took just two in the home leg of last year's League Cup semi-final, scoring with Hazard's penalty). And Swansea at least put two of their three shots on-target, took two of their three shots inside the 18-yard box. Everton did neither, limited to three half-cocked counter-attacking chances from outside the box, two well-off target from Mirallas, one blocked from Barkley. Everton's best chance saw them fail to take a shot, with Sakho's wonderful, timed-to-the-millisecond tackle on Lukaku in the 21st minute after the striker looked like getting clear. Maybe it's a different game if Lukaku gets away. It's definitely a least a little different if Sakho's slightly earlier or later with his tackle. But he wasn't. And that was it from Everton.
Those are the only times I've seen just three opposition shots in the league since starting these infographics in 2012-13. 147 Premier League matches. It's happened twice.
Put another way: four different Liverpool players – Coutinho, Sturridge, Lallana, and Moreno – took more shots than Everton.
Even in the early stages, long before Liverpool's first two goals or Funes Mori's red card, Liverpool controlled possession, created chances – the best the counter-attack long passes to Lallana and Firmino, but others after sustained control of play – and limited Everton to marginal opportunities. And they did so with a two-man midfield of Lucas and Milner, a personnel decision which absolutely terrified me when announced. Up against Barkley? Lukaku on the counter? Eek. Which again shows what little I know.
Meanwhile, 10 of Liverpool's 13 outfield players registered a key pass. 12 of 13 took at least one shot; the only who didn't, James Milner, created eight (!!!) chances, including two clear-cut chances, and had two assists. Milner's eight chances were the most created by a Liverpool player in any match since Luis Suarez in the aforementioned 5-0 win over Swansea in February 2013. That's the only time it's happened since I began these infographics in 2012-13.
Five key passes in one match? Not that uncommon: Milner, Coutinho, Lallana, Moreno, Firmino, Can, and Ibe have all hit that mark this season. Six? Milner, Coutinho, Can, and Moreno. Seven? Milner and Coutinho. Eight? Just Hamez Thrillner.
Incidentally, Milner also created seven chances against Dortmund, registering two assists while taking no shots, starting in a two-man central midfield. As he did yesterday. File this one under: "Things I didn't expect to work which are actually working." Yet both of his assists yesterday came from open play crosses, as did his assist for Origi's first against Stoke. He's somehow invented a new central midfielder + winger position, able to do so because Stewart against Stoke and Lucas against Everton offered enough protection in case of counter-attack – not that either opposition offered much of a counter-attack. Of the 14 goals that Liverpool have scored in the last four games, Milner's had the assist on six of them, as well as the assist for Origi's goal at Dortmund five games ago. Woof.
Origi's now averaging a goal or assist every 103 minutes in all competitions, Sturridge is averaging a goal or assist every 111 minutes in all competitions (88.75 in the league), Milner's averaging a goal or assist every 146 minutes in all competitions, Coutinho's averaging a goal or assist every 155 minutes, Firmino's averaging a goal or assist every 159 minutes (111 in the league). Liverpool are scoring open play goals and set play goals. Counter-attack goals, possession goals, pressing goals, crossing goals. When Liverpool's attack is in form, Liverpool's attack is actually good. Surprisingly good. And it could and probably should have been even better yesterday.
Everton's red card certainly exacerbated matters, but Liverpool were well on their way to a rout before Funes Mori's attempted manslaughter. Liverpool had outshot Everton 16-3 prior to the two quick goals just before halftime. The shot count was 18-3 before Funes Mori committed ALL THE EVIL. In a Merseyside Derby. It's seemingly never just a matter of time with Liverpool, but it truly seemed just a matter of time before Liverpool pulled away from a very much below-par Everton. And it was.
Everton clearly aren't in a good place right now. The defense, rarely Roberto Martinez's strongest area, is in a very bad place: two important defenders – Jagielka and Coleman (no, not Tony Hibbert) – were injured (which led to the odd idea that it was a good idea to play a one-footed left-back at right-back up against Coutinho and Moreno), Funes Mori saw red, Stones had to go off with "stomach cramps". They ended the match with Besic and McCarthy as center-backs. They've had a player sent off in four of the last eight matches. They're now winless in six, only two points above 16th place, with multiple blogs and forums calling for Martinez to be sacked just days before an FA Cup semi-final.
But the last time Everton lost a league match by four goals was the last time Liverpool beat them 4-0 at Anfield in January 2014. And that's the only other time they've lost by four under Roberto Martinez. The last non-Liverpool four-goal loss for Everton? 0-5 at Benfica in October 2009, in that season's Europa League. Ah, the days of David Moyes in Europe. And the last time it happened in the Premier League was two months earlier, 1-6 against Arsenal on opening day of 2009-10. Both of those losses were more than six years ago.
And, as mentioned above (and I'll keep mentioning it!), Liverpool have scored four goals in each of the last three home games: 4-3 Dortmund, 4-1 Stoke, and 4-0 Everton. That sort of streak hasn't happened since 2013-14, when Liverpool scored four, four, and five against West Brom, Fulham, and Norwich, then four, five, and four against Everton, Arsenal, and Swansea later that season. But not counting the Suarez-led aberration which was 2013-14, the last time Liverpool scored at least four in three successive home games was January 1996, against Nottingham Forest (4-2), Rochdale (7-1), and Leeds (5-0). More than 20 years ago. Divock Origi was just nine months old.
Including the 2-1 win at Bournemouth, Liverpool have now scored 14 goals in the last four matches. As a reminder – although I suspect you still remember – Liverpool didn't score its 14th goal this season until October 28th, in the 15th match of the season. Four matches after Brendan Rodgers was relieved of his managerial duties.
It's all coming together. An indescribably emphatic victory over the next door neighbors after an April of good results. It's all coming together at a very good time, despite the difficult-at-times season so far, despite playing some very tough matches during this stretch, despite injuries to some very important players.
But that, after the three weeks we've seen before, can't be the capstone to Liverpool's season. There's still much more to play for over the next month.
19 April 2016
Liverpool v Everton 04.20.16
3pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports
Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (a) 10.04.15
0-0 (a) 02.07.15
1-1 (h) 09.27.14
4-0 Liverpool (h) 01.28.14
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Bournemouth (a); 4-3 Dortmund (h); 4-1 Stoke (h)
Everton: 1-1 Southampton (h); 0-0 Palace (a); 1-1 Watford (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Firmino 9; Benteke, Coutinho 7; Sturridge 6; Origi 4; Lallana 3; Henderson, Ings, Lallana 2; Allen, Can, Clyne, Moreno, Skrtel, Toure 1
Everton: Lukaku 18; Barkley 8; Kone, Lennon 5; Funes Mori 4; Naismith 3; Deulofeu, Mirallas 2; Cleverley, Coleman, McCarthy 1
Referee: Bobby Madley
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Sakho Moreno
Milner Stewart Allen
Coutinho
Sturridge Origi
There will be no resting of players in this league match. Not in the Merseyside Derby. Origi's fit after a minor back concern, which leads me to the main line-up question: to diamond or not to diamond?
Central midfield remains a massive concern with both Henderson and Can absent. I have doubts about both Allen and Milner in a midfield two, more the latter than the former. So it seems to me that the diamond is the safest way to protect the midfield while also allowing both Sturridge and Origi on the pitch. Maybe it's 4-2-3-1 with Allen and Milner behind Lallana, Firmino, and Coutinho, or Allen and Stewart/Lucas behind Milner/Lallana, Firmino, Coutinho. Maybe it's 4-3-3 with Allen, Stewart, or Lucas behind two from Milner, Allen, and Coutinho, and a front three of Lallana, Sturridge/Origi, and Firmino.
Liverpool have options in Can and Henderson's absence, but all of those options have potential weaknesses. So, my very-much-layman's opinion is "screw it, play the formation that puts both Sturridge and Origi up front and doesn't lead to a two-man Allen/Milner midfield." Go for the throat, but try not to leave the back door open while doing so.
Like Liverpool, Everton rested a number of usual starters on Saturday. They've struggled recently, winless in five, with two losses and three draws. And like Liverpool, a cup run has seemingly become more important than the league – Everton's winless streak dates back to their FA Cup quarterfinal with over Chelsea, and the semifinal against Manchester United is this Saturday.
Seamus Coleman and Phil Jagielka are definitely out, while Cleverley, Lennon, and Baines are doubtful. My usual suspicion is that anyone doubtful will still magically become available for a Merseyside Derby, but that's probably not the case with the semifinal three days later.
If the three doubtful players don't start, Everton's XI should be Joel; Connolly, Stones, Funes Mori, Oviedo; Barry, McCarthy; Deulofeu, Barkley, Mirallas; Lukaku. If available, Lennon could replace either winger, Baines would replace Oviedo, and Cleverley probably wouldn't start anyway. Regardless of personnel or form, Everton still have Barkley dancing through the middle and Lukaku – who's scored five goals in his last eight games against Liverpool for West Brom and Everton, including the equalizer in October – up front.
And, as cliché as it is, form often means next to nothing in this fixture. We've seen three consecutive draws, albeit all under Liverpool's previous manager. Six of seven derbies under Rodgers finished level, the lone exception the 4-0 Suarez-led mauling in 2013-14. And at the same time, Houllier was the last Liverpool manager to win his first Merseyside Derby, way back in 1999. Benitez lost (away), Hodgson lost (away), Dalglish drew (home), and Rodgers drew (away).
In Klopp's first derby, Liverpool will want to impress, and Liverpool will want to win. On a five-match unbeaten streak, having scored ten goals in the last three games, Liverpool will want to win. And with a win, Liverpool will move up to sixth, just two points off United in fifth.
The Europa League, in eight days, still overshadows what happens in the league. But Liverpool's recent form, notably in matches featuring multiple changes to the side, means the league still matters. And when Liverpool host Everton, it always matters that much more.
Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (a) 10.04.15
0-0 (a) 02.07.15
1-1 (h) 09.27.14
4-0 Liverpool (h) 01.28.14
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Bournemouth (a); 4-3 Dortmund (h); 4-1 Stoke (h)
Everton: 1-1 Southampton (h); 0-0 Palace (a); 1-1 Watford (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Firmino 9; Benteke, Coutinho 7; Sturridge 6; Origi 4; Lallana 3; Henderson, Ings, Lallana 2; Allen, Can, Clyne, Moreno, Skrtel, Toure 1
Everton: Lukaku 18; Barkley 8; Kone, Lennon 5; Funes Mori 4; Naismith 3; Deulofeu, Mirallas 2; Cleverley, Coleman, McCarthy 1
Referee: Bobby Madley
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Sakho Moreno
Milner Stewart Allen
Coutinho
Sturridge Origi
There will be no resting of players in this league match. Not in the Merseyside Derby. Origi's fit after a minor back concern, which leads me to the main line-up question: to diamond or not to diamond?
Central midfield remains a massive concern with both Henderson and Can absent. I have doubts about both Allen and Milner in a midfield two, more the latter than the former. So it seems to me that the diamond is the safest way to protect the midfield while also allowing both Sturridge and Origi on the pitch. Maybe it's 4-2-3-1 with Allen and Milner behind Lallana, Firmino, and Coutinho, or Allen and Stewart/Lucas behind Milner/Lallana, Firmino, Coutinho. Maybe it's 4-3-3 with Allen, Stewart, or Lucas behind two from Milner, Allen, and Coutinho, and a front three of Lallana, Sturridge/Origi, and Firmino.
Liverpool have options in Can and Henderson's absence, but all of those options have potential weaknesses. So, my very-much-layman's opinion is "screw it, play the formation that puts both Sturridge and Origi up front and doesn't lead to a two-man Allen/Milner midfield." Go for the throat, but try not to leave the back door open while doing so.
Like Liverpool, Everton rested a number of usual starters on Saturday. They've struggled recently, winless in five, with two losses and three draws. And like Liverpool, a cup run has seemingly become more important than the league – Everton's winless streak dates back to their FA Cup quarterfinal with over Chelsea, and the semifinal against Manchester United is this Saturday.
Seamus Coleman and Phil Jagielka are definitely out, while Cleverley, Lennon, and Baines are doubtful. My usual suspicion is that anyone doubtful will still magically become available for a Merseyside Derby, but that's probably not the case with the semifinal three days later.
If the three doubtful players don't start, Everton's XI should be Joel; Connolly, Stones, Funes Mori, Oviedo; Barry, McCarthy; Deulofeu, Barkley, Mirallas; Lukaku. If available, Lennon could replace either winger, Baines would replace Oviedo, and Cleverley probably wouldn't start anyway. Regardless of personnel or form, Everton still have Barkley dancing through the middle and Lukaku – who's scored five goals in his last eight games against Liverpool for West Brom and Everton, including the equalizer in October – up front.
And, as cliché as it is, form often means next to nothing in this fixture. We've seen three consecutive draws, albeit all under Liverpool's previous manager. Six of seven derbies under Rodgers finished level, the lone exception the 4-0 Suarez-led mauling in 2013-14. And at the same time, Houllier was the last Liverpool manager to win his first Merseyside Derby, way back in 1999. Benitez lost (away), Hodgson lost (away), Dalglish drew (home), and Rodgers drew (away).
In Klopp's first derby, Liverpool will want to impress, and Liverpool will want to win. On a five-match unbeaten streak, having scored ten goals in the last three games, Liverpool will want to win. And with a win, Liverpool will move up to sixth, just two points off United in fifth.
The Europa League, in eight days, still overshadows what happens in the league. But Liverpool's recent form, notably in matches featuring multiple changes to the side, means the league still matters. And when Liverpool host Everton, it always matters that much more.
18 April 2016
Visualized: Liverpool 2-1 Bournemouth
Previous Match Infographics: Dortmund (h), Stoke (h), Dortmund (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
Maybe the Europa League's not so bad when you've got the ability to completely rotate your XI for the next league match and still win.
It's been a good ten days for Liverpool. An impressive draw in Dortmund, a thorough win over Stoke, that comeback against Dortmund, and now another league victory, this time at Bournemouth, fairly comfortable until Bournemouth's late goal in added time.
Only the XIs at Exeter, which was the second-youngest in the club's history, and at Bordeaux were less experienced this season. Five of Liverpool's starters – Ward, Randall, Smith, Stewart, and Ojo – had featured in two or fewer league matches for the club.
To put it another way: before yesterday, Lucas had made 217 Premier League appearances for Liverpool. The other ten starters had made just 260 combined, only 43 more. Take away Kolo Toure, and the other nine players equal Lucas' league appearance total.
And Liverpool won. It was a bit disjointed in the first half, and a bit frightening in the last half-an-hour as Bournemouth made changes and increasingly took the game to Liverpool, but Liverpool won. The inexperienced players did enough; a completely changed defense including a debutant goalkeeper, two kids, Toure, and Lucas nearly kept a clean sheet until King 93rd minute consolation; Joe Allen seemed everywhere in midfield; Ibe and Ojo ran at defenders and created chances; and Firmino and Sturridge provided the firepower up front. Mostly Sturridge.
Since 2012-13, we've seen a Liverpool player take 10 shots in a match just four other times: Suarez v Reading in 2012-13, Suarez v Fulham in 2013-14, Balotelli v Everton in 2014-15, and Coutinho v Norwich in 2015-16.
Rather than a sign of prolificacy, it's usually done out of desperation. Only Suarez against Fulham and Sturridge yesterday actually scored. None of those players put more than three shots on-target: again, Suarez against Fulham and Sturridge at Bournemouth. Suarez put just one on-target against Reading, Balotelli and Coutinho put two on-target. Yesterday's match and the fixture against Fulham were the only matches where Liverpool scored more than once. The last two times it'd happened: v Everton and Norwich, Liverpool drew 1-1.
Incidentally, the previous single-match high under Klopp came in two different cup competitions: seven shots, by Firmino v Stoke in the League Cup and Coutinho v Kazan – one barely a striker, the other most certainly not.
Sturridge's ten were, however, the highest proportion of the team's overall shots from the above list. Ten of 19 is 52.6%, the only the five occurrences where the player had more than half of the side's shots. Suarez took 37% and 31.3% against Reading and Fulham respectively, Balotelli took 41.7% against Everton, and Coutinho took 43.5% against Norwich.
But only one of Sturridge's ten shots truly seemed "selfish": from beyond the halfway line in the 75th minute, not even close to goal and with the keeper not that far off his line. And you can't even get mad at that one because it was so comical. Taking ten shots is truly a shot-monster performance, but its not as if they were bad shots with players in better positions. It certainly wasn't Balotelli against Everton, where eight of Balotelli's 10 shots came from outside the box.
Yesterday's XI and tactics were designed to get the best out of Daniel Sturridge with what Liverpool had available. The defenders supplied the fullbacks and midfielders, the midfielders supplied the fullbacks and attacking line of three, and everybody looked for Sturridge, whether through short passing buildup or quick long balls from the back. And for the most part, it happened. On another day, Sturridge scores at least two more, the most notable near-goals the two off the post and the wonderful back-heeled effort saved by Boruc.
Sturridge has played just 674 minutes in the league this season, and has six goals and an assist. That's a goal or assist every 96 minutes, otherwise known as 0.93 goals+assists per 90 minutes. The next step, clearly, is getting more 90 minutes out of him, with yesterday the first time he'd started four consecutive league matches in more than two years.
Simply put, if he stays fit, he's world class, one of the best three or four strikers in the league. It's admittedly a big if, but the reward far outweighs the risk. To be fair, Ibe, Ojo, and Obi Welsh Kenobi were also excellent yesterday, while Ward did good things in goal, but Daniel Sturridge was the rightful star of the show.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth had a surprising amount of shots of their own. Which isn't necessarily surprising given the venue and Liverpool's personnel changes. But 18 opposition shots is the joint-highest total against Klopp's Liverpool, along with West Ham (a) and Tottenham (a). Liverpool blocking nine opposition shots is their highest total in a match the season.
12 of Bournemouth's 18 shots came in the final 30 minutes, with Liverpool increasingly pushed back. Liverpool blocked six of them (Sakho 4; Stewart and Randall 1), including Sakho's 92nd-minute clearance off the line, while Ward excellently saved two more, most notably Grabban's 82nd-minute header. But that mostly inexperienced defense, with Sakho having replaced Toure – and mid-match defensive substitutes are always dangerous – held on.
Unlike the last time Liverpool were on the South Coast, Liverpool held onto to its two-goal lead despite late pressure from the home side. Sure, Southampton are a better side than Bournemouth, but not by as much as you'd expect. And Liverpool did it with that makeshift XI.
That sort of improvement in squad depth, and the potential shown by Liverpool's youngsters, is even more encouraging than the result. That players who rarely play, and rarely play together, were able to gel and to carry out Klopp's often-difficult tactics is no small matter. We said similar after the last three matches (and said similar earlier in the season, only to see set-backs), but there's truly a team here, one that might need fewer tweaks than we thought.
Also more encouraging than the result is the slow-but-sure return to form for Daniel Sturridge.
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
Maybe the Europa League's not so bad when you've got the ability to completely rotate your XI for the next league match and still win.
It's been a good ten days for Liverpool. An impressive draw in Dortmund, a thorough win over Stoke, that comeback against Dortmund, and now another league victory, this time at Bournemouth, fairly comfortable until Bournemouth's late goal in added time.
At 24.43, #LFC's starting line up was the youngest for the club in the league this season. At the end of the game it was 23.99.— LFC Match by Match (@LFCMbM) April 17, 2016
Only the XIs at Exeter, which was the second-youngest in the club's history, and at Bordeaux were less experienced this season. Five of Liverpool's starters – Ward, Randall, Smith, Stewart, and Ojo – had featured in two or fewer league matches for the club.
To put it another way: before yesterday, Lucas had made 217 Premier League appearances for Liverpool. The other ten starters had made just 260 combined, only 43 more. Take away Kolo Toure, and the other nine players equal Lucas' league appearance total.
And Liverpool won. It was a bit disjointed in the first half, and a bit frightening in the last half-an-hour as Bournemouth made changes and increasingly took the game to Liverpool, but Liverpool won. The inexperienced players did enough; a completely changed defense including a debutant goalkeeper, two kids, Toure, and Lucas nearly kept a clean sheet until King 93rd minute consolation; Joe Allen seemed everywhere in midfield; Ibe and Ojo ran at defenders and created chances; and Firmino and Sturridge provided the firepower up front. Mostly Sturridge.
Since 2012-13, we've seen a Liverpool player take 10 shots in a match just four other times: Suarez v Reading in 2012-13, Suarez v Fulham in 2013-14, Balotelli v Everton in 2014-15, and Coutinho v Norwich in 2015-16.
Rather than a sign of prolificacy, it's usually done out of desperation. Only Suarez against Fulham and Sturridge yesterday actually scored. None of those players put more than three shots on-target: again, Suarez against Fulham and Sturridge at Bournemouth. Suarez put just one on-target against Reading, Balotelli and Coutinho put two on-target. Yesterday's match and the fixture against Fulham were the only matches where Liverpool scored more than once. The last two times it'd happened: v Everton and Norwich, Liverpool drew 1-1.
Incidentally, the previous single-match high under Klopp came in two different cup competitions: seven shots, by Firmino v Stoke in the League Cup and Coutinho v Kazan – one barely a striker, the other most certainly not.
Sturridge's ten were, however, the highest proportion of the team's overall shots from the above list. Ten of 19 is 52.6%, the only the five occurrences where the player had more than half of the side's shots. Suarez took 37% and 31.3% against Reading and Fulham respectively, Balotelli took 41.7% against Everton, and Coutinho took 43.5% against Norwich.
But only one of Sturridge's ten shots truly seemed "selfish": from beyond the halfway line in the 75th minute, not even close to goal and with the keeper not that far off his line. And you can't even get mad at that one because it was so comical. Taking ten shots is truly a shot-monster performance, but its not as if they were bad shots with players in better positions. It certainly wasn't Balotelli against Everton, where eight of Balotelli's 10 shots came from outside the box.
Yesterday's XI and tactics were designed to get the best out of Daniel Sturridge with what Liverpool had available. The defenders supplied the fullbacks and midfielders, the midfielders supplied the fullbacks and attacking line of three, and everybody looked for Sturridge, whether through short passing buildup or quick long balls from the back. And for the most part, it happened. On another day, Sturridge scores at least two more, the most notable near-goals the two off the post and the wonderful back-heeled effort saved by Boruc.
Sturridge has played just 674 minutes in the league this season, and has six goals and an assist. That's a goal or assist every 96 minutes, otherwise known as 0.93 goals+assists per 90 minutes. The next step, clearly, is getting more 90 minutes out of him, with yesterday the first time he'd started four consecutive league matches in more than two years.
Anyone who wants Sturridge out needs to have a word. Scored 49 in 86. The same total as Fowler & 1 better than RUSH pic.twitter.com/XKIFabESH2— LFChistory.net (@LFChistory) April 18, 2016
Simply put, if he stays fit, he's world class, one of the best three or four strikers in the league. It's admittedly a big if, but the reward far outweighs the risk. To be fair, Ibe, Ojo, and Obi Welsh Kenobi were also excellent yesterday, while Ward did good things in goal, but Daniel Sturridge was the rightful star of the show.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth had a surprising amount of shots of their own. Which isn't necessarily surprising given the venue and Liverpool's personnel changes. But 18 opposition shots is the joint-highest total against Klopp's Liverpool, along with West Ham (a) and Tottenham (a). Liverpool blocking nine opposition shots is their highest total in a match the season.
12 of Bournemouth's 18 shots came in the final 30 minutes, with Liverpool increasingly pushed back. Liverpool blocked six of them (Sakho 4; Stewart and Randall 1), including Sakho's 92nd-minute clearance off the line, while Ward excellently saved two more, most notably Grabban's 82nd-minute header. But that mostly inexperienced defense, with Sakho having replaced Toure – and mid-match defensive substitutes are always dangerous – held on.
Unlike the last time Liverpool were on the South Coast, Liverpool held onto to its two-goal lead despite late pressure from the home side. Sure, Southampton are a better side than Bournemouth, but not by as much as you'd expect. And Liverpool did it with that makeshift XI.
That sort of improvement in squad depth, and the potential shown by Liverpool's youngsters, is even more encouraging than the result. That players who rarely play, and rarely play together, were able to gel and to carry out Klopp's often-difficult tactics is no small matter. We said similar after the last three matches (and said similar earlier in the season, only to see set-backs), but there's truly a team here, one that might need fewer tweaks than we thought.
Also more encouraging than the result is the slow-but-sure return to form for Daniel Sturridge.
17 April 2016
Liverpool 2-1 Bournemouth
Goals:
Firmino 41'
Sturridge 45+2'
King 90+3'
Liverpool can't go one game without giving me a heart attack, but other than a marginally frightening last half-an-hour, culminating in King's extra-time consolation, a radically different XI performed more than adequately. It wasn't quite last week against Stoke, but it was certainly enough.
We knew there'd be changes, but 10 different players from the side which started against Dortmund still surprised. A full debut for Danny Ward, a Premier League debut for Connor Randall, a first league start for Brad Smith, a second league start for Kevin Stewart and Sheyi Ojo, Jordon Ibe's first league since January, and a Lucas-Toure center-back pairing.
So, unsurprisingly, the first 40 minutes looked like an away match which featured a radically different and incredibly young XI against diligent opposition. Because Liverpool is still Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool, the side still pressed well from the front and defended well enough at the back. Liverpool limited Bournemouth chances, doing well to stifle a side that often starts matches quickly.
And because Daniel Sturridge is still Daniel Sturridge, Roberto Firmino is still Roberto Firmino, and Sheyi Ojo is tons of fun, Liverpool created at least a little bit in the opposition half. Pressure from Firmino led to Sturridge's second-minute half-volley at Boruc; Ojo and Ibe's pace led to chances for Ojo and Randall blocked in the 24th; Allen's sumptuous chip to Sturridge three minutes later was saved by Boruc after a clearance deflected off the striker.
They were mostly half-chances, and not occurring with the frequency we'd prefer, but, again, that's little surprise. And then, with five minutes left until halftime, Liverpool's class up front decided the game. As in the 24th minute, the build-up from Ojo and Ibe created the initial opportunity, the latter finding Sturridge in the box with his back to goal. Somehow the striker fired off a fierce, blind back heel, well saved by Boruc, but with Firmino first to the point-blank rebound. Five minutes later, Ibe won a free kick, Ibe took the free kick, and Sturridge jinked away from Elphick to flick a 12-yard header low into the corner.
It was the fifth set play goal that Liverpool scored in the last three games; they'd scored 13 through the first 51 matches this season. It was the fifth headed goal that Liverpool scored in the last three games; they'd scored seven through the first 51 matches this season. When it rains, etc.
Liverpool, rightfully so, remained wary of a two-goal lead at a south coast side, and kept going for a potential third after the restart. Firmino acrobatically shot wide from a scrambled corner, then Sturridge hit the foot of the post with a delightful chip. Ibe fired over after cutting inside, then Firmino fired straight at Boruc after cutting inside.
But by the hour mark, Bournemouth increasingly pushed Liverpool back. They'd switched to a 4-4-2 to start the second half, replacing Stanislas with Grabban, but subs didn't truly change the game until Pugh replaced Gradel in the 59th, with Lucas put under increasing pressure by Josh King and Sakho needed to cover for an injured Toure. From there, it was Danny Ward's time to shine, with two saves on King and two on Grabban – all very good, but the fourth, on Grabber's header from Francis' cross, the most impressive.
Liverpool had a few minutes reprieve from defending beginning in the 83rd, as Sturridge again hit the post – released by Allen, turning his marker, and hammering off the upright – then fired over on the break from Lallana's throughball five minutes later, but Bournemouth quickly resumed their pressure in added time. It seemed too little, too late until King's shot from nothing – a lofted long ball out of defense, shrugging off Lucas far too easily before a 20-yard half-volley. And, of course, because Liverpool, that got the heart racing, and Liverpool immediately conceded a free kick in the final minute of injury time. Just like against Dortmund. Thankfully, just like Dortmund, Liverpool survived, the chance untaken as Cook headed Pugh's cross over rather than in.
Phew.
We should expect nothing less from Bournemouth, having over-performed all season and having already given Liverpool two tough matches. Eddie Howe again demonstrated he's a more than capable manager, each substitution making Bournemouth more dangerous. The home side will also rue three possible handball penalties. I'm obviously biased, but I don't think any should have been given: Lucas and Toure had the ball flick onto their arms from next-to-no distance – seen and uncalled in more than a few matches – in the 45th and 61st minutes respectively, while Smith controlled a Bournemouth cross with his chest before the ball *might have* rolled down his arm in the 86th.
By the end of the match, Liverpool had had to defend for long stretches. Bournemouth's 18 shots were the joint-most an opponent's taken against Klopp's Liverpool, the same total as at West Ham and against Tottenham. Liverpool blocked eight of the shots, the joint-most they've blocked in a match this season, the same total as at Everton back in October. Liverpool were away from home with four unfamiliar starters in defense, after all.
But in the end, Liverpool did enough. On another day, Sturridge could have had a hat-trick. Joe Allen was everywhere in midfield. Ward, Ojo, and Stewart were the most promising of the kids – especially Ward – and for the first time in too long a time, Jordon Ibe looked capable of becoming the player we envisioned last season.
A much-changed side did enough. Liverpool won a third consecutive match, its fifth win in the last seven league matches. Since losing at Leicester at the start of February, Liverpool have lost just three of the last 16 matches: an FA Cup match at West Ham in extra time, the League Cup final against City on penalties, and the fluke-that-shall-not-be-named in the league a month ago. Liverpool are in a Europa League semi-final and in shouting distance of a Europa League place for next season.
Liverpool are slowly rounding into form, from the usual starters to the substitutes to the infrequent reserves to the rarely seen young players. Most importantly, these wins over Stoke and Bournemouth have demonstrated that Liverpool might actually have a reasonably full squad rather than needing to rely on the usual suspects.
Firmino 41'
Sturridge 45+2'
King 90+3'
Liverpool can't go one game without giving me a heart attack, but other than a marginally frightening last half-an-hour, culminating in King's extra-time consolation, a radically different XI performed more than adequately. It wasn't quite last week against Stoke, but it was certainly enough.
We knew there'd be changes, but 10 different players from the side which started against Dortmund still surprised. A full debut for Danny Ward, a Premier League debut for Connor Randall, a first league start for Brad Smith, a second league start for Kevin Stewart and Sheyi Ojo, Jordon Ibe's first league since January, and a Lucas-Toure center-back pairing.
So, unsurprisingly, the first 40 minutes looked like an away match which featured a radically different and incredibly young XI against diligent opposition. Because Liverpool is still Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool, the side still pressed well from the front and defended well enough at the back. Liverpool limited Bournemouth chances, doing well to stifle a side that often starts matches quickly.
And because Daniel Sturridge is still Daniel Sturridge, Roberto Firmino is still Roberto Firmino, and Sheyi Ojo is tons of fun, Liverpool created at least a little bit in the opposition half. Pressure from Firmino led to Sturridge's second-minute half-volley at Boruc; Ojo and Ibe's pace led to chances for Ojo and Randall blocked in the 24th; Allen's sumptuous chip to Sturridge three minutes later was saved by Boruc after a clearance deflected off the striker.
They were mostly half-chances, and not occurring with the frequency we'd prefer, but, again, that's little surprise. And then, with five minutes left until halftime, Liverpool's class up front decided the game. As in the 24th minute, the build-up from Ojo and Ibe created the initial opportunity, the latter finding Sturridge in the box with his back to goal. Somehow the striker fired off a fierce, blind back heel, well saved by Boruc, but with Firmino first to the point-blank rebound. Five minutes later, Ibe won a free kick, Ibe took the free kick, and Sturridge jinked away from Elphick to flick a 12-yard header low into the corner.
It was the fifth set play goal that Liverpool scored in the last three games; they'd scored 13 through the first 51 matches this season. It was the fifth headed goal that Liverpool scored in the last three games; they'd scored seven through the first 51 matches this season. When it rains, etc.
Liverpool, rightfully so, remained wary of a two-goal lead at a south coast side, and kept going for a potential third after the restart. Firmino acrobatically shot wide from a scrambled corner, then Sturridge hit the foot of the post with a delightful chip. Ibe fired over after cutting inside, then Firmino fired straight at Boruc after cutting inside.
But by the hour mark, Bournemouth increasingly pushed Liverpool back. They'd switched to a 4-4-2 to start the second half, replacing Stanislas with Grabban, but subs didn't truly change the game until Pugh replaced Gradel in the 59th, with Lucas put under increasing pressure by Josh King and Sakho needed to cover for an injured Toure. From there, it was Danny Ward's time to shine, with two saves on King and two on Grabban – all very good, but the fourth, on Grabber's header from Francis' cross, the most impressive.
Liverpool had a few minutes reprieve from defending beginning in the 83rd, as Sturridge again hit the post – released by Allen, turning his marker, and hammering off the upright – then fired over on the break from Lallana's throughball five minutes later, but Bournemouth quickly resumed their pressure in added time. It seemed too little, too late until King's shot from nothing – a lofted long ball out of defense, shrugging off Lucas far too easily before a 20-yard half-volley. And, of course, because Liverpool, that got the heart racing, and Liverpool immediately conceded a free kick in the final minute of injury time. Just like against Dortmund. Thankfully, just like Dortmund, Liverpool survived, the chance untaken as Cook headed Pugh's cross over rather than in.
Phew.
We should expect nothing less from Bournemouth, having over-performed all season and having already given Liverpool two tough matches. Eddie Howe again demonstrated he's a more than capable manager, each substitution making Bournemouth more dangerous. The home side will also rue three possible handball penalties. I'm obviously biased, but I don't think any should have been given: Lucas and Toure had the ball flick onto their arms from next-to-no distance – seen and uncalled in more than a few matches – in the 45th and 61st minutes respectively, while Smith controlled a Bournemouth cross with his chest before the ball *might have* rolled down his arm in the 86th.
By the end of the match, Liverpool had had to defend for long stretches. Bournemouth's 18 shots were the joint-most an opponent's taken against Klopp's Liverpool, the same total as at West Ham and against Tottenham. Liverpool blocked eight of the shots, the joint-most they've blocked in a match this season, the same total as at Everton back in October. Liverpool were away from home with four unfamiliar starters in defense, after all.
But in the end, Liverpool did enough. On another day, Sturridge could have had a hat-trick. Joe Allen was everywhere in midfield. Ward, Ojo, and Stewart were the most promising of the kids – especially Ward – and for the first time in too long a time, Jordon Ibe looked capable of becoming the player we envisioned last season.
A much-changed side did enough. Liverpool won a third consecutive match, its fifth win in the last seven league matches. Since losing at Leicester at the start of February, Liverpool have lost just three of the last 16 matches: an FA Cup match at West Ham in extra time, the League Cup final against City on penalties, and the fluke-that-shall-not-be-named in the league a month ago. Liverpool are in a Europa League semi-final and in shouting distance of a Europa League place for next season.
Liverpool are slowly rounding into form, from the usual starters to the substitutes to the infrequent reserves to the rarely seen young players. Most importantly, these wins over Stoke and Bournemouth have demonstrated that Liverpool might actually have a reasonably full squad rather than needing to rely on the usual suspects.
16 April 2016
Liverpool at Bournemouth 04.17.16
8:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Live Extra
Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (h; League Cup) 10.28.15
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.17.15
3-1 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 12.17.14
2-0 Liverpool (a; FA Cup) 01.25.14
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 4-3 Dortmund (h); 4-1 Stoke (h); 1-1 Dortmund (a)
Bournemouth: 2-1 Villa (a); 0-4 City (h); 0-3 Tottenham (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Firmino 8; Benteke, Coutinho 7; Sturridge 5; Origi 4; Lallana 3; Henderson, Ings, Lallana 2; Allen, Can, Clyne, Moreno, Skrtel, Toure 1
Bournemouth: King, Wilson 5; Afobe, Cook 4; Daniels, Gosling, Murray, Ritchie, Stanislas 3; Pugh, Smith 2; Arter, Gradel 1
Referee: Mike Jones
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Flanagan Lovren Sakho Smith
Milner Stewart Allen
Ojo Firmino
Sturridge
It seems way too soon for a Liverpool match; I'm still living off the fumes of Thursday. It'd take some incredible discipline for Liverpool's players to not feel similarly, with the added weight of actually playing those 90 ferocious minutes.
Given both physical and mental fatigue levels, and with Everton coming to Anfield on Wednesday, I suspect tomorrow's lineup will feature as many changes as the XI against Stoke did. Those XIs will probably look very similar. Everton, incidentally, have entirely changed its usual front six for today's match in preparation for Wednesday (and drew 1-1).
Maybe Lucas starts instead of, or alongside Stewart, now that he'll be needed in the Europa League because of Can's injury and without Stewart available for that competition. Maybe we'll get a diamond midfield: say, Stewart, Allen, Milner, Firmino/Coutinho behind two from Sturridge, Origi, and Firmino. Liverpool often look good in that formation, as in the second half of both legs against Dortmund, but it's a difficult formation to succeed with against an orthodox 4-4-2 like Bournemouth play. Maybe Klopp rotates one or both of center-backs and not the full-backs, as against Stoke, although I'd prefer to see the opposite; Clyne's played more minutes than anyone else in the squad and Moreno could probably use the rest as well. I doubt we'll see an entirely different back four, as that's often asking for trouble.
There will be changes, definitely to personnel and probably to formation. As usual, it's how Liverpool's players cope with the alterations; we know they'll be well prepared by the manager. It's a different match against different opposition, but it's encouraging that a changed XI did their jobs and took their chances in a similar situation against Stoke, albeit at Anfield, a week ago.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth have overachieved this season: firmly ensconced in mid-table, in 13th place and 11 points clear of the relegation zone, narrowly ahead of established sides such as Everton, Swansea, and West Brom.
They've been a better version of last year's Burnley: 4-4-2, a fairly set line-up as far as injuries allow, hard-working and direct. They've done well against their peers but struggled against the tier above, which is exactly what you need to do to stay in the league. That this Bournemouth side, predicted by most to finish bottom, could finish in the top half of the table is a massive achievement, overshadowed by the even more unlikely storylines this season. In the last month, Bournemouth convincingly beat Southampton, Newcastle, and Villa; impressively held off Swansea 3-2; and were hammered by both Tottenham and Manchester City.
Callum Wilson is back from a long knee injury, and could make his first start since September, but is more likely to be a substitute. Despite only starting six matches, he remains Bournemouth's joint-top scorer with five goals. Arter, Mings, Smith remain injured, while both Afobe and Stanislas are doubtful. Bournemouth's XI seems almost certainly the same seen in last week's comfortable 2-1 win at Aston Villa: Boruc; Francis, Elphick, Cook. Daniels; Ritchie, Surman, Gosling, Gradel; King, Grabban
Bournemouth made Liverpool work for both its narrow 1-0 Anfield victories this season. The first, the second match of the season, saw Liverpool even more wasteful than usual, needing a clearly-offside goal to win the match. When these sides met in the League Cup two months later, in Klopp's fourth match, a much-changed Liverpool eked out a victory through Clyne's early close-range rebound for Klopp's first win. Both were, however, a very long time ago as far as Liverpool's concerned.
Liverpool's victory over Dortmund demonstrated just how far this team's come in its ability to recover from set-backs and deficits, but how Liverpool start this match will still be a massive factor in how this match finishes. No side has scored more than Bournemouth in the first 30 minutes of Premier League games this season, with eight goals, level with Manchester City and Stoke. Liverpool, in comparison, have three.
Liverpool scored in the first 30 minutes in both meetings against Bournemouth – Benteke in the 26th in the league, Clyne in the 17th in the League Cup – and fairly easily held onto the victory despite a handful of chances and challenges from the Cherries. It seems simple to say, but just do the same tomorrow. We could use a game without the fear of heart failure.
Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (h; League Cup) 10.28.15
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.17.15
3-1 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 12.17.14
2-0 Liverpool (a; FA Cup) 01.25.14
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 4-3 Dortmund (h); 4-1 Stoke (h); 1-1 Dortmund (a)
Bournemouth: 2-1 Villa (a); 0-4 City (h); 0-3 Tottenham (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Firmino 8; Benteke, Coutinho 7; Sturridge 5; Origi 4; Lallana 3; Henderson, Ings, Lallana 2; Allen, Can, Clyne, Moreno, Skrtel, Toure 1
Bournemouth: King, Wilson 5; Afobe, Cook 4; Daniels, Gosling, Murray, Ritchie, Stanislas 3; Pugh, Smith 2; Arter, Gradel 1
Referee: Mike Jones
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Flanagan Lovren Sakho Smith
Milner Stewart Allen
Ojo Firmino
Sturridge
It seems way too soon for a Liverpool match; I'm still living off the fumes of Thursday. It'd take some incredible discipline for Liverpool's players to not feel similarly, with the added weight of actually playing those 90 ferocious minutes.
Given both physical and mental fatigue levels, and with Everton coming to Anfield on Wednesday, I suspect tomorrow's lineup will feature as many changes as the XI against Stoke did. Those XIs will probably look very similar. Everton, incidentally, have entirely changed its usual front six for today's match in preparation for Wednesday (and drew 1-1).
Maybe Lucas starts instead of, or alongside Stewart, now that he'll be needed in the Europa League because of Can's injury and without Stewart available for that competition. Maybe we'll get a diamond midfield: say, Stewart, Allen, Milner, Firmino/Coutinho behind two from Sturridge, Origi, and Firmino. Liverpool often look good in that formation, as in the second half of both legs against Dortmund, but it's a difficult formation to succeed with against an orthodox 4-4-2 like Bournemouth play. Maybe Klopp rotates one or both of center-backs and not the full-backs, as against Stoke, although I'd prefer to see the opposite; Clyne's played more minutes than anyone else in the squad and Moreno could probably use the rest as well. I doubt we'll see an entirely different back four, as that's often asking for trouble.
There will be changes, definitely to personnel and probably to formation. As usual, it's how Liverpool's players cope with the alterations; we know they'll be well prepared by the manager. It's a different match against different opposition, but it's encouraging that a changed XI did their jobs and took their chances in a similar situation against Stoke, albeit at Anfield, a week ago.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth have overachieved this season: firmly ensconced in mid-table, in 13th place and 11 points clear of the relegation zone, narrowly ahead of established sides such as Everton, Swansea, and West Brom.
They've been a better version of last year's Burnley: 4-4-2, a fairly set line-up as far as injuries allow, hard-working and direct. They've done well against their peers but struggled against the tier above, which is exactly what you need to do to stay in the league. That this Bournemouth side, predicted by most to finish bottom, could finish in the top half of the table is a massive achievement, overshadowed by the even more unlikely storylines this season. In the last month, Bournemouth convincingly beat Southampton, Newcastle, and Villa; impressively held off Swansea 3-2; and were hammered by both Tottenham and Manchester City.
Callum Wilson is back from a long knee injury, and could make his first start since September, but is more likely to be a substitute. Despite only starting six matches, he remains Bournemouth's joint-top scorer with five goals. Arter, Mings, Smith remain injured, while both Afobe and Stanislas are doubtful. Bournemouth's XI seems almost certainly the same seen in last week's comfortable 2-1 win at Aston Villa: Boruc; Francis, Elphick, Cook. Daniels; Ritchie, Surman, Gosling, Gradel; King, Grabban
Bournemouth made Liverpool work for both its narrow 1-0 Anfield victories this season. The first, the second match of the season, saw Liverpool even more wasteful than usual, needing a clearly-offside goal to win the match. When these sides met in the League Cup two months later, in Klopp's fourth match, a much-changed Liverpool eked out a victory through Clyne's early close-range rebound for Klopp's first win. Both were, however, a very long time ago as far as Liverpool's concerned.
Liverpool's victory over Dortmund demonstrated just how far this team's come in its ability to recover from set-backs and deficits, but how Liverpool start this match will still be a massive factor in how this match finishes. No side has scored more than Bournemouth in the first 30 minutes of Premier League games this season, with eight goals, level with Manchester City and Stoke. Liverpool, in comparison, have three.
Liverpool scored in the first 30 minutes in both meetings against Bournemouth – Benteke in the 26th in the league, Clyne in the 17th in the League Cup – and fairly easily held onto the victory despite a handful of chances and challenges from the Cherries. It seems simple to say, but just do the same tomorrow. We could use a game without the fear of heart failure.
15 April 2016
Visualized: Liverpool 4-3 Borussia Dortmund
Nota Bene: In nearly 10 years of doing this blog thing, I've never posted about football on the Hillsborough Anniversary before. True, that's mainly because nothing lined up as this year has, but it also just doesn't feel right. Yet leaving the match infographic for tomorrow doesn't feel right either. I mean no offense, and truly don't want to take away from the Hillsborough remembrance – especially since it's the last year of the service at Anfield and the Hillsborough Inquests will soon come to a close, 27 years after the Disaster – but I also don't want to disappoint the few of you who come here to read my nonsense about the sport and team we support. So I thought a caveat was in order, as well as my heartfelt apologies to anyone who disagrees with my decision, and my heartfelt sympathy for anyone who lost friends or family in the Disaster, for anyone affected by the Disaster.
Justice for the 96.
Previous Match Infographics: Stoke (h), Dortmund (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)
As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.
Football, eh?
It couldn't have started worse and it couldn't have finished better.
It was surprising to see Liverpool revert to the 4-2-3-1. Klopp spoke about how Liverpool needed to be brave in this fixture, and going for an extra attacker in the hopes of adding another goal early on was certainly brave.
And it was certainly the wrong decision. And Liverpool certainly paid for it, twice, within ten minutes.
They were two textbooks Dortmund counters: the first sprung by Coutinho's errant pass to Moreno, the second by three Dortmund players pressing Firmino after Milner's ill-advised pass to a covered teammate. And then they were off like lightning. That's what Dortmund can do to you, if given the slightest of openings. That's transition football. But Liverpool didn't need to help them along the way, both in the loss of possession, the vacating of midfield, and – to cap it all off – Sakho sitting so deep he played a Dortmund attacker onside for both.
It's right there in the Goal Events chalkboards. Liverpool give the ball away (or have it taken away, in the second instance) in Dortmund's half, Dortmund charge down the pitch, Kagawa and Reus have acres of space in the middle, Dortmund score. Liverpool were too casual in attack, unbalanced and open in midfield, and disjointed in defense. That's a recipe for a loss against most sides. It's a recipe for annihilation against Dortmund. This looked like it'd be annihilation.
Dortmund continued to have counter-attack chances – most notably, Aubameyang missed another clear-cut chance in the 36th minute; a one-two with Reus through Liverpool's inside-right channel – but Liverpool at least grew into the game. Liverpool kept pushing. Heads didn't drop. They still believed. Etc, etc.
But it was still Bad Liverpool. Liverpool responded with nine first half shots after going 0-2 down – which is more than the 6.64 per match that Dortmund's opponents had averaged in the Europa League since the start of the group stage – but four were off-target and five were blocked. Bad finishing as well as good opposition defending, with Dortmund allowed the opportunity to sit deep and block shots because of their early lead.
It was the Liverpool we saw at Watford and at West Ham more than four months ago, not the Liverpool we needed to see when hosting Borussia Dortmund in a Europa League quarterfinal.
Something had to change. You had to expect halftime substitutions as well as a response from Liverpool.
Surprisingly, we didn't get the former. But we did get the latter: finally, an example of Liverpool's transition football and both Emre Can and Divock Origi's potential: four quick one-touch passes through midfield (Can's exchangs with Milner then Firmino) before a perfectly-weighted throughball, Origi's strong run behind Sokratis and cool finish past Weidenfeller.
Game almost on.
Then game back off.
Unlike their usual modus operandi, Dortmund took the sting out of Liverpool's response with possession, making Liverpool chase the ball while controlling the clock. They maintained control for a full minute before finally pulling defenders out of position, Hummels' throughball to Reus catching Clyne at sea with Sakho playing the attacker onside for a third punishing time.
So now, Liverpool really did have to change things. Liverpool had to throw caution to the win, to go for broke, to use every single cliché in their toolbox.
There are a lot – A LOT – more variables here, yet I can't help but think "win the midfield, win the match." Dortmund tired, and Dortmund's pressing and counter-attacking became less potent, especially as Kagawa then Reus went off. But solidifying the midfield not only gave Liverpool more going forward, better able to unbalance Dortmund with Allen, Milner, and Can breaking the lines, but also more protection the few times that Dortmund countered.
Dortmund were always going to sit deeper, trying to retain their lead as time ran down, but Liverpool's change in structure gave the team a better platform for possession. And it directly resulted in Liverpool's second goal: Can and Allen prodding and poking, to draw defenders while other attackers look for space, until ultimately unlocking the defense through Coutinho: a one-two with Milner, an unerring shot from just outside the box. It was made not only by the Brazilian's accuracy, but Milner's clever run into an area vacated by Weigl's attempt to close down Coutinho. Castro couldn't get over in time, Hummels just could get out quick enough to block.
Game back on? Yeah, actually, game back on.
Liverpool kept pushing, Dortmund kept defending, but we needed two miracles for two more goals. Two set plays miracles from two scapegoat center-backs. Sakho, scoring his first goal for more than two years on Liverpool's 11th corner of the match, after barely creating anything from the first ten, with Coutinho's low delivery somehow missing both Sturridge and three Dortmund defenders at the near post before finding Sakho, in space because Lovren had picked off his marker. Consider amends made for his role in Dortmund's three.
And, in the first minute of injury time, an even more unlikely goal from an even more unlikely player on an even more unlikely dead ball routine.
Schmelzer had to unnecessarily foul Clyne deep on the right flank. Both Milner and Sturridge had to be aware enough to go for the pass down the flank rather than the usual hoofed cross into the box. Sturridge had to be onside, by about a foot. Reus had to be caught unaware for a single second, not quite quick enough to track the striker, and Sturridge still had to regain control after initially misplaying it. Aubameyang had to dawdle back, allowing Milner to charge into the box for Sturridge's layoff, and Milner had to somehow cross just before the byline after an initial heavy touch. And it had to be a inch-perfect cross on the run, to that exact spot at the back post, where Lovren out-jumped the substitute Ramos and actually hit the target just inside the post.
Un damn believable. Football, eh?
So while Liverpool did very good things and Liverpool responded, both players and manager, there's still all sorts of "how the hell did this happen?" involved.
Every single Liverpool shot of the final 15 minutes came from a set play: Clyne from very deep blocked, Sakho's goal, and Lovren's two errant attempts before an inconceivable winner. Which helps demonstrate that Dortmund didn't just roll over. That team can defend, but somehow Liverpool still had enough. By hook, crook, and luck. And that would be the Liverpool who are often terrible at defending set plays and don't convert enough of their own.
As was Dortmund's shot. Shot, not shots.
One. That's the total number of Borussia Dortmund shots in the final 30 minutes of both legs. Combined. And that one was Gündogan's 94th minute free kick yesterday, thankfully put a yard wide of the near post. 60 minutes of play. At Dortmund with the score level, then at Liverpool trying to protect a two-goal lead. And they couldn't manage a single open play shot.
In the final 30 minutes of the last three games: Dortmund took zero shots at Dortmund, Stoke took two shots at Anfield, and Dortmund took one shot at Anfield. Three shots over 90 combined minutes, in three very different matches, with each of them from outside the box and either off-target or blocked. In the first, Liverpool were desperately protecting a draw. In the second, Liverpool were coasting thanks to their two- then three-goal advantage. In the third, Liverpool were chasing the most unlikely of results, needing to throw players forward to erase a three-goal deficit.
That's Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool, ladies and gentlemen. And this is just the beginning.
Make no mistake. Liverpool merited its victory yesterday and to win the tie. The defensive performance in the first leg, the attacking and defensive performances in the second half of the second leg.
Liverpool looked the fitter, more resilient side in both legs, and I'm not quite sure how. Klopp's training methods? The team's new-found belief? Yesterday's Anfield atmosphere? All of the above? Both teams have played a ton of matches this season; yesterday was Liverpool's 53rd and Dortmund's 49th. The likes of Sturridge, Origi, and Allen haven't played anywhere near as much as any of the Dortmund starters yesterday, but the likes of Can and Clyne have played more than all of them, while Milner and Moreno have played more than all but Aubameyang and Mkhitaryan. Both sides should have demonstrably tired, not just Dortmund.
Maybe it was just all down to Joe Allen. With Allen on the pitch – in 73 of 180 minutes, as a substitute in both legs – Liverpool controlled the midfield, out-shot Dortmund 16-5, and out-scored Dortmund 3-1 (the one, of course, from a set play). All hail our Welsh savior.
When all's said and done, over 180 minutes, Liverpool were the better side. Narrowly. By the slimmest of margins. But better. Now that's unbelievable.
This is only Dortmund's sixth loss of the season, and it's their first since December 19th, a 1-2 defeat at FC Köln just before the Bundesliga winter break.
This is only the second time that Dortmund have conceded four or more goals this season, along with the 1-5 loss at soon-to-be-fourth-successive-Bundesliga-winners Bayern Munich. They'd only conceded three or more three times: that Bayern match, a 4-3 win at Odds Ballklubb in EL qualifying with the season barely started, and a 1-3 loss at Hamburg back in November. Just three times, and the last times was in November.
This is only the second time that Dortmund's opponents have taken 20 or more shots in a match this season. The other was Dortmund's 2-1 win at Wolfsburg, where Wolfsburg fired from any and all angles in an attempt to come back from Reus' first-half goal. No side had taken more than 13 against Dortmund in the Europa League this season, and that was Liverpool in the first leg.
And this is the first time this season that Dortmund scored three or more goals and didn't win. Not even draw, but win. 22 matches with three or more Dortmund goals in all competitions, and 22 Dortmund wins. Until yesterday.
The magic is back. European nights at Anfield are back. Improbable, near-impossible comebacks are back. Heart attacks are back. Belief is back.
We're all aware this team still has multiple flaws and a vast amount of room for improvement. But this team is also a hell of a lot better than it was a year ago, than it was six months ago, and that's mainly because of the manager: both for his cult of personality giving the players added confidence as well as the increasingly clever in-game tactical changes. The decision to start with a 4-2-3-1 almost cost Liverpool, but Liverpool still believed, and the second half changes certainly changed Liverpool.
Most importantly, football is fun again.
Justice for the 96.
Previous Match Infographics: Stoke (h), Dortmund (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)
As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.
Football, eh?
It couldn't have started worse and it couldn't have finished better.
It was surprising to see Liverpool revert to the 4-2-3-1. Klopp spoke about how Liverpool needed to be brave in this fixture, and going for an extra attacker in the hopes of adding another goal early on was certainly brave.
And it was certainly the wrong decision. And Liverpool certainly paid for it, twice, within ten minutes.
They were two textbooks Dortmund counters: the first sprung by Coutinho's errant pass to Moreno, the second by three Dortmund players pressing Firmino after Milner's ill-advised pass to a covered teammate. And then they were off like lightning. That's what Dortmund can do to you, if given the slightest of openings. That's transition football. But Liverpool didn't need to help them along the way, both in the loss of possession, the vacating of midfield, and – to cap it all off – Sakho sitting so deep he played a Dortmund attacker onside for both.
It's right there in the Goal Events chalkboards. Liverpool give the ball away (or have it taken away, in the second instance) in Dortmund's half, Dortmund charge down the pitch, Kagawa and Reus have acres of space in the middle, Dortmund score. Liverpool were too casual in attack, unbalanced and open in midfield, and disjointed in defense. That's a recipe for a loss against most sides. It's a recipe for annihilation against Dortmund. This looked like it'd be annihilation.
Dortmund continued to have counter-attack chances – most notably, Aubameyang missed another clear-cut chance in the 36th minute; a one-two with Reus through Liverpool's inside-right channel – but Liverpool at least grew into the game. Liverpool kept pushing. Heads didn't drop. They still believed. Etc, etc.
But it was still Bad Liverpool. Liverpool responded with nine first half shots after going 0-2 down – which is more than the 6.64 per match that Dortmund's opponents had averaged in the Europa League since the start of the group stage – but four were off-target and five were blocked. Bad finishing as well as good opposition defending, with Dortmund allowed the opportunity to sit deep and block shots because of their early lead.
It was the Liverpool we saw at Watford and at West Ham more than four months ago, not the Liverpool we needed to see when hosting Borussia Dortmund in a Europa League quarterfinal.
Something had to change. You had to expect halftime substitutions as well as a response from Liverpool.
Surprisingly, we didn't get the former. But we did get the latter: finally, an example of Liverpool's transition football and both Emre Can and Divock Origi's potential: four quick one-touch passes through midfield (Can's exchangs with Milner then Firmino) before a perfectly-weighted throughball, Origi's strong run behind Sokratis and cool finish past Weidenfeller.
Game almost on.
Then game back off.
Unlike their usual modus operandi, Dortmund took the sting out of Liverpool's response with possession, making Liverpool chase the ball while controlling the clock. They maintained control for a full minute before finally pulling defenders out of position, Hummels' throughball to Reus catching Clyne at sea with Sakho playing the attacker onside for a third punishing time.
So now, Liverpool really did have to change things. Liverpool had to throw caution to the win, to go for broke, to use every single cliché in their toolbox.
There are a lot – A LOT – more variables here, yet I can't help but think "win the midfield, win the match." Dortmund tired, and Dortmund's pressing and counter-attacking became less potent, especially as Kagawa then Reus went off. But solidifying the midfield not only gave Liverpool more going forward, better able to unbalance Dortmund with Allen, Milner, and Can breaking the lines, but also more protection the few times that Dortmund countered.
Dortmund were always going to sit deeper, trying to retain their lead as time ran down, but Liverpool's change in structure gave the team a better platform for possession. And it directly resulted in Liverpool's second goal: Can and Allen prodding and poking, to draw defenders while other attackers look for space, until ultimately unlocking the defense through Coutinho: a one-two with Milner, an unerring shot from just outside the box. It was made not only by the Brazilian's accuracy, but Milner's clever run into an area vacated by Weigl's attempt to close down Coutinho. Castro couldn't get over in time, Hummels just could get out quick enough to block.
Game back on? Yeah, actually, game back on.
Liverpool kept pushing, Dortmund kept defending, but we needed two miracles for two more goals. Two set plays miracles from two scapegoat center-backs. Sakho, scoring his first goal for more than two years on Liverpool's 11th corner of the match, after barely creating anything from the first ten, with Coutinho's low delivery somehow missing both Sturridge and three Dortmund defenders at the near post before finding Sakho, in space because Lovren had picked off his marker. Consider amends made for his role in Dortmund's three.
And, in the first minute of injury time, an even more unlikely goal from an even more unlikely player on an even more unlikely dead ball routine.
Schmelzer had to unnecessarily foul Clyne deep on the right flank. Both Milner and Sturridge had to be aware enough to go for the pass down the flank rather than the usual hoofed cross into the box. Sturridge had to be onside, by about a foot. Reus had to be caught unaware for a single second, not quite quick enough to track the striker, and Sturridge still had to regain control after initially misplaying it. Aubameyang had to dawdle back, allowing Milner to charge into the box for Sturridge's layoff, and Milner had to somehow cross just before the byline after an initial heavy touch. And it had to be a inch-perfect cross on the run, to that exact spot at the back post, where Lovren out-jumped the substitute Ramos and actually hit the target just inside the post.
Un damn believable. Football, eh?
So while Liverpool did very good things and Liverpool responded, both players and manager, there's still all sorts of "how the hell did this happen?" involved.
Every single Liverpool shot of the final 15 minutes came from a set play: Clyne from very deep blocked, Sakho's goal, and Lovren's two errant attempts before an inconceivable winner. Which helps demonstrate that Dortmund didn't just roll over. That team can defend, but somehow Liverpool still had enough. By hook, crook, and luck. And that would be the Liverpool who are often terrible at defending set plays and don't convert enough of their own.
As was Dortmund's shot. Shot, not shots.
One. That's the total number of Borussia Dortmund shots in the final 30 minutes of both legs. Combined. And that one was Gündogan's 94th minute free kick yesterday, thankfully put a yard wide of the near post. 60 minutes of play. At Dortmund with the score level, then at Liverpool trying to protect a two-goal lead. And they couldn't manage a single open play shot.
In the final 30 minutes of the last three games: Dortmund took zero shots at Dortmund, Stoke took two shots at Anfield, and Dortmund took one shot at Anfield. Three shots over 90 combined minutes, in three very different matches, with each of them from outside the box and either off-target or blocked. In the first, Liverpool were desperately protecting a draw. In the second, Liverpool were coasting thanks to their two- then three-goal advantage. In the third, Liverpool were chasing the most unlikely of results, needing to throw players forward to erase a three-goal deficit.
That's Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool, ladies and gentlemen. And this is just the beginning.
First half xG map for Liverpool - Dortmund. The difference between getting in behind the defense and... not. pic.twitter.com/BZQFvCu1w2— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) April 14, 2016
— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) April 14, 2016
Make no mistake. Liverpool merited its victory yesterday and to win the tie. The defensive performance in the first leg, the attacking and defensive performances in the second half of the second leg.
Liverpool looked the fitter, more resilient side in both legs, and I'm not quite sure how. Klopp's training methods? The team's new-found belief? Yesterday's Anfield atmosphere? All of the above? Both teams have played a ton of matches this season; yesterday was Liverpool's 53rd and Dortmund's 49th. The likes of Sturridge, Origi, and Allen haven't played anywhere near as much as any of the Dortmund starters yesterday, but the likes of Can and Clyne have played more than all of them, while Milner and Moreno have played more than all but Aubameyang and Mkhitaryan. Both sides should have demonstrably tired, not just Dortmund.
Maybe it was just all down to Joe Allen. With Allen on the pitch – in 73 of 180 minutes, as a substitute in both legs – Liverpool controlled the midfield, out-shot Dortmund 16-5, and out-scored Dortmund 3-1 (the one, of course, from a set play). All hail our Welsh savior.
When all's said and done, over 180 minutes, Liverpool were the better side. Narrowly. By the slimmest of margins. But better. Now that's unbelievable.
This is only Dortmund's sixth loss of the season, and it's their first since December 19th, a 1-2 defeat at FC Köln just before the Bundesliga winter break.
This is only the second time that Dortmund have conceded four or more goals this season, along with the 1-5 loss at soon-to-be-fourth-successive-Bundesliga-winners Bayern Munich. They'd only conceded three or more three times: that Bayern match, a 4-3 win at Odds Ballklubb in EL qualifying with the season barely started, and a 1-3 loss at Hamburg back in November. Just three times, and the last times was in November.
This is only the second time that Dortmund's opponents have taken 20 or more shots in a match this season. The other was Dortmund's 2-1 win at Wolfsburg, where Wolfsburg fired from any and all angles in an attempt to come back from Reus' first-half goal. No side had taken more than 13 against Dortmund in the Europa League this season, and that was Liverpool in the first leg.
And this is the first time this season that Dortmund scored three or more goals and didn't win. Not even draw, but win. 22 matches with three or more Dortmund goals in all competitions, and 22 Dortmund wins. Until yesterday.
The magic is back. European nights at Anfield are back. Improbable, near-impossible comebacks are back. Heart attacks are back. Belief is back.
We're all aware this team still has multiple flaws and a vast amount of room for improvement. But this team is also a hell of a lot better than it was a year ago, than it was six months ago, and that's mainly because of the manager: both for his cult of personality giving the players added confidence as well as the increasingly clever in-game tactical changes. The decision to start with a 4-2-3-1 almost cost Liverpool, but Liverpool still believed, and the second half changes certainly changed Liverpool.
Most importantly, football is fun again.
13 April 2016
Liverpool v Borussia Dortmund 04.14.16
1-1 on aggregate (Liverpool lead on away goals)
3:05pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 4-1 Stoke (h); 1-1 Dortmund (a); 1-1 Tottenham (h)
Dortmund: 2-2 Schalke (a); 1-1 Liverpool (h); 3-2 Werder Bremen (h)
Previous EL rounds:
Liverpool: 1-1 Dortmund (a); 1-1 United (a), 2-0 United (h); 1-0 Augsburg (h), 0-0 Augsburg (a); 0-0 Sion (a); 2-1 Bordeaux (h); 1-0 Kazan (a); 1-1 Kazan (h); 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Dortmund: 1-1 Liverpool (h); 2-1 Tottenham (a), 3-0 Tottenham (h); 1-0 Porto (a), 2-0 Porto (h); 0-1 PAOK (h); 0-1 Krasnodar (a); 4-0 Qabala (h); 3-1 Qabala (a); 1-1 PAOK (a); 2-1 Krasnodar (h); 7-2 Odd (h); 3-4 Odd (a); 5-0 Wolfsberger (h); 1-0 Wolfsberger (a)
Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Lallana, Milner 2; Benteke, Can, Coutinho, Firmino, Ibe, Origi, Sturridge 1
Dortmund: Aubameyang 10; Reus 8; Mkhitaryan 6; Kagawa 3; Castro, Ginter, Gündogan, Hoffman, Hummels, Park, Piszczek 1
Referee: Cüneyt Çakır (TUR)
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Sakho Moreno
Allen Can Milner
Lallana Origi Coutinho
Once more into the breach, dear friends. Do what you did last week, but a little bit better at both ends, and Liverpool will have an excellent chance of qualifying for its first European semifinals in six years.
Maybe Sturridge starts up front instead of Origi, with Liverpool likely to have marginally more possession than they did in Dortmund. Maybe Firmino comes back into the side, either at the expense of Lallana or the third central midfielder. Maybe both Sturridge and Origi start up top, with Liverpool capable of playing with a midfield diamond or an orthodox 4-4-2.
But I suspect it'll be the same as a week ago, Allen replacing the injured Henderson the only change to the starting XI. Despite the different venue, despite the magic of European nights at Anfield and the difference that atmosphere can make, I suspect this match will look a lot like last week's. Dortmund will have the ball, Dortmund will attack. Liverpool will press, Liverpool will counter, but, primarily, Liverpool will defend.
And Liverpool will need to defend. It won't be the only priority, but keeping a clean sheet means Liverpool win the tie and Liverpool will advance to the semi-finals. But, of course, you can't just go Full Pulis and focus solely on keeping a clean sheet, pinned back for 90 consecutive minutes, because you will undoubtedly tire and Dortmund will almost certainly score.
Liverpool have focused on defense throughout this competition, but not just on defense. I've frequently mentioned that Liverpool haven't allowed an open play goal in the last 795 minutes of European football, since 15 minutes into Klopp's first match, but Liverpool have also scored at least once in nine of the 11 Europa League matches this season, the dead rubber 0-0 at Sion and 0-0 first leg at Augsburg the only exceptions. It's usually just once, 2-1 v Bordeaux and 2-0 v United the only matches where Liverpool have scored more than once, but once would be a good start tomorrow.
That, as much as Liverpool's defense since Klopp became manager, is the reason that Liverpool remain the only unbeaten side left in this competition.
But it still seems clear that what goes on in Liverpool's half of the field will decide tomorrow's result. What will Dortmund do and how can Liverpool stop it, as they almost totally did in Dortmund a week ago. Dortmund's away record in all competitions this season is 17W-4D-4L. More importantly, they've been held scoreless just in two of 25 away matches this season: a 0-1 loss at Krasnodar in the group stage with Dortmund already qualified for the knockout rounds and a 0-0 draw at third-place Hertha Berlin two months ago. That's it. They're averaging 1.96 goals per away match this season, and looking at their group of attackers, it's not hard to see why.
Dortmund are better at home, where they've drawn just three and lost just once this season, averaging 3.04 goals per game. And Liverpool held them to just one, coming away with an important draw. But with that attack, they can score anywhere, against anyone. As Liverpool learned, they press effectively, transition quickly, and are dangerous on set plays. It will take a hell of an effort to keep them out: disciplined defensively and positionally intelligent; hunting in packs in both halves of the pitch, but also quickly recovering if the press doesn't work to get back into two solid bands in their own half.
Like Liverpool, Dortmund rested the majority of its Europa League side in the weekend match, a 2-2 away draw with Schalke in the Ruhr Derby. Only Hummels, Bender, and Durm started both matches, with Aubameyang, Mkhitaryan, and Gündogan used as substitutes.
Gündogan's return is incredibly important for Dortmund, a more vital midfield metronome than the impressive Weigl and Sahin. If Gündogan comes back into the side, who makes way? Weigl, the most similar player in last week's starting XI? Castro, the other midfielder, who played a more advanced role in the second half when Sahin came in? Durm, who Sahin replaced at halftime?
My suspicion is Durm, with Gündogan in the role that Sahin played in the second half and Castro again further forward. But, again, it's not as if Dortmund don't have options. Kagawa rather than Castro (or Durm). Bender keeping his place in defense. A 3-4-3 curveball, as they did against Bayern Munich last month and Schalke on Sunday. But the probable XI remains Weidenfeller; Piszczek, Sokratis, Hummels, Schmelzer; Weigl, Gündogan; Mkhitaryan, Castro, Reus; Aubameyang.
As terrifying a match-up as it still is, even with Liverpool's narrow away goal lead, this is the type of match that Liverpool need to be playing. The type of match that Liverpool weren't playing enough under the previous manager. A potentially season-defining fixture. A European night at Anfield. Everything to play for. Against one of the top-five teams in Europe, one which happens to be the new manager's previous club.
This is what sport is supposed to be about. Make the most of it.
3:05pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 4-1 Stoke (h); 1-1 Dortmund (a); 1-1 Tottenham (h)
Dortmund: 2-2 Schalke (a); 1-1 Liverpool (h); 3-2 Werder Bremen (h)
Previous EL rounds:
Liverpool: 1-1 Dortmund (a); 1-1 United (a), 2-0 United (h); 1-0 Augsburg (h), 0-0 Augsburg (a); 0-0 Sion (a); 2-1 Bordeaux (h); 1-0 Kazan (a); 1-1 Kazan (h); 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Dortmund: 1-1 Liverpool (h); 2-1 Tottenham (a), 3-0 Tottenham (h); 1-0 Porto (a), 2-0 Porto (h); 0-1 PAOK (h); 0-1 Krasnodar (a); 4-0 Qabala (h); 3-1 Qabala (a); 1-1 PAOK (a); 2-1 Krasnodar (h); 7-2 Odd (h); 3-4 Odd (a); 5-0 Wolfsberger (h); 1-0 Wolfsberger (a)
Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Lallana, Milner 2; Benteke, Can, Coutinho, Firmino, Ibe, Origi, Sturridge 1
Dortmund: Aubameyang 10; Reus 8; Mkhitaryan 6; Kagawa 3; Castro, Ginter, Gündogan, Hoffman, Hummels, Park, Piszczek 1
Referee: Cüneyt Çakır (TUR)
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Sakho Moreno
Allen Can Milner
Lallana Origi Coutinho
Once more into the breach, dear friends. Do what you did last week, but a little bit better at both ends, and Liverpool will have an excellent chance of qualifying for its first European semifinals in six years.
Maybe Sturridge starts up front instead of Origi, with Liverpool likely to have marginally more possession than they did in Dortmund. Maybe Firmino comes back into the side, either at the expense of Lallana or the third central midfielder. Maybe both Sturridge and Origi start up top, with Liverpool capable of playing with a midfield diamond or an orthodox 4-4-2.
But I suspect it'll be the same as a week ago, Allen replacing the injured Henderson the only change to the starting XI. Despite the different venue, despite the magic of European nights at Anfield and the difference that atmosphere can make, I suspect this match will look a lot like last week's. Dortmund will have the ball, Dortmund will attack. Liverpool will press, Liverpool will counter, but, primarily, Liverpool will defend.
And Liverpool will need to defend. It won't be the only priority, but keeping a clean sheet means Liverpool win the tie and Liverpool will advance to the semi-finals. But, of course, you can't just go Full Pulis and focus solely on keeping a clean sheet, pinned back for 90 consecutive minutes, because you will undoubtedly tire and Dortmund will almost certainly score.
Liverpool have focused on defense throughout this competition, but not just on defense. I've frequently mentioned that Liverpool haven't allowed an open play goal in the last 795 minutes of European football, since 15 minutes into Klopp's first match, but Liverpool have also scored at least once in nine of the 11 Europa League matches this season, the dead rubber 0-0 at Sion and 0-0 first leg at Augsburg the only exceptions. It's usually just once, 2-1 v Bordeaux and 2-0 v United the only matches where Liverpool have scored more than once, but once would be a good start tomorrow.
That, as much as Liverpool's defense since Klopp became manager, is the reason that Liverpool remain the only unbeaten side left in this competition.
But it still seems clear that what goes on in Liverpool's half of the field will decide tomorrow's result. What will Dortmund do and how can Liverpool stop it, as they almost totally did in Dortmund a week ago. Dortmund's away record in all competitions this season is 17W-4D-4L. More importantly, they've been held scoreless just in two of 25 away matches this season: a 0-1 loss at Krasnodar in the group stage with Dortmund already qualified for the knockout rounds and a 0-0 draw at third-place Hertha Berlin two months ago. That's it. They're averaging 1.96 goals per away match this season, and looking at their group of attackers, it's not hard to see why.
Dortmund are better at home, where they've drawn just three and lost just once this season, averaging 3.04 goals per game. And Liverpool held them to just one, coming away with an important draw. But with that attack, they can score anywhere, against anyone. As Liverpool learned, they press effectively, transition quickly, and are dangerous on set plays. It will take a hell of an effort to keep them out: disciplined defensively and positionally intelligent; hunting in packs in both halves of the pitch, but also quickly recovering if the press doesn't work to get back into two solid bands in their own half.
Like Liverpool, Dortmund rested the majority of its Europa League side in the weekend match, a 2-2 away draw with Schalke in the Ruhr Derby. Only Hummels, Bender, and Durm started both matches, with Aubameyang, Mkhitaryan, and Gündogan used as substitutes.
Gündogan's return is incredibly important for Dortmund, a more vital midfield metronome than the impressive Weigl and Sahin. If Gündogan comes back into the side, who makes way? Weigl, the most similar player in last week's starting XI? Castro, the other midfielder, who played a more advanced role in the second half when Sahin came in? Durm, who Sahin replaced at halftime?
My suspicion is Durm, with Gündogan in the role that Sahin played in the second half and Castro again further forward. But, again, it's not as if Dortmund don't have options. Kagawa rather than Castro (or Durm). Bender keeping his place in defense. A 3-4-3 curveball, as they did against Bayern Munich last month and Schalke on Sunday. But the probable XI remains Weidenfeller; Piszczek, Sokratis, Hummels, Schmelzer; Weigl, Gündogan; Mkhitaryan, Castro, Reus; Aubameyang.
As terrifying a match-up as it still is, even with Liverpool's narrow away goal lead, this is the type of match that Liverpool need to be playing. The type of match that Liverpool weren't playing enough under the previous manager. A potentially season-defining fixture. A European night at Anfield. Everything to play for. Against one of the top-five teams in Europe, one which happens to be the new manager's previous club.
This is what sport is supposed to be about. Make the most of it.
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