11 April 2016

Visualized: Liverpool 4-1 Stoke


Previous Match Infographics: Dortmund (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.

As much fun as that was, an awful lot of things had to go Liverpool's way for that result to happen.

There are goals in this Liverpool side – no Premiership side has scored more than Liverpool's 28 since the beginning of 2016, and most sides have played at least one more match – but all four of yesterday's seemed uncharacteristic or even fluky.

The first needed three Stoke players to argue the free kick, not paying attention to Milner trying to take it quickly or Moreno cheating into space; Milner to be clever enough to see Moreno and play it quickly; Moreno to hit a rocket which ends up either blocked by a defender or in the stands nine times out of ten; and the possibly unsighted Stoke goalkeeper to react late to a savable, if fierce, shot.

The second needed Ojo's brilliant run past Shaqiri and unbelievable cross, Sturridge's clever movement to lose Wollscheid, and Haugaard to stay planted on his goal line.

The third needed Stoke's defending to completely fall apart after a short corner, Milner's unbelievable cross, and Haugaard to stay planted on his goal line.

The fourth needed Origi's cross to Sturridge – no matter what Klopp or Origi says, it was a cross to Sturridge – to somehow end up in the back of the net, and Haugaard to stay planted on his goal line.

We're not seeing goals like Moreno's or Origi's second very often. And we're not seeing many better crosses than Ojo and Milner's assists. Usually, goalkeepers seem to perform heroically against Liverpool. That most certainly did not happen yesterday.

Liverpool created three clear-cut chances yesterday (and scored two!): Sturridge's goal, Origi's first, and Origi's 61st-minute miss. All three came from crosses, all three were headers, and all three went into the six-yard box. Almost every other goalkeeper in the league tries to punch each of them clear. Prior to yesterday, only seven of Liverpool's 73 goals in all competitions came from headers (Ings 2; Benteke, Firmino, Origi, Sturridge, Toure 1).

That's not to take away from Liverpool's performance. Individual players did well: Stewart and Ojo in their Premier League debuts, Milner as a central midfielder, Allen as a quasi-left winger and then quasi-central midfielder, Origi as a substitute and strike partner for Sturridge (who almost always looks better with a strike partner). And Liverpool were trained well: an unfamiliar XI in multiple unfamiliar formations: first, either a 4-2-3-1 or a very unbalanced 4-3-2-1 (you pick; I can't decide), then in a 4-4-2, both diamond and orthodox, after Origi came on.

Liverpool coped with Stoke's long ball tactics; Crouch won all five of his aerial duels (Toure won one of three, Skrtel one of two in total), but Stoke were rarely first to the second ball. Stoke put just one open play shot on-target in the entire match: Imbula from long-range in the 42nd minute.

Stoke took just 11 shots, and put just three shots on-target. Liverpool limited Stoke to just five shots from inside the box, but three of those five – by far the three most dangerous – came from set plays: Bojan's goal, Shawcross's header narrowly off-target, and Cameron's header excellently saved by Mignolet. The others were Afellay's wayward early wide-box effort and Crouch's swiftly blocked just inside the area. Once again, Liverpool were lucky that they weren't further punished from dead ball situations.





You can clearly see Milner pointing and screaming to hold the line. But only Clyne and Ojo (to a lesser extent) do so, with Toure especially guilty of dropping deep, leaving Bojan free and clear in the middle of the box. It's Ojo's first league match, while Toure hadn't started since the 3-0 win over City five weeks ago and had started just three matches since the beginning of February. And while it didn't affect the play, I also appreciate Skrtel somehow being prone on the pitch as Bojan scores.

That such a different XI struggled to defend set plays isn't necessarily surprising, but set plays seem to remain an issue no matter who plays.



Liverpool have conceded 18 set plays goals in 16 different games, and it cost Liverpool points in 10 of them. Liverpool could, and probably should, have won against Norwich (h), Southampton, West Brom, Exeter, Arsenal, Sunderland, and Dortmund; drawn against Palace (h) and United (h); and gone to penalties against West Ham. 17 of the 18 conceded either leveled the score or gave the opposition the lead, and the other was Adam Johnson's direct free kick for Sunderland, a match that Sunderland somehow went on to draw. Liverpool only went on to win four of those games, with two of those four in the last month.

To be fair, Liverpool's set play defense has gotten better in the last couple of months: 15 of those 18 goals came prior to February 10, with only three in the last two months (and Crystal Palace's goal at Palace barely counts as a set play, with Liverpool failing during the second phase of defending). But conceding two in two games brings all those worries back, especially when Dortmund are coming to Anfield in three days.

All told, this is still a very pleasing result, made even more so by the changed XI and the fact we saw a bunch of good if unlikely goals. Liverpool demonstrated some actual squad depth, Allen and Milner played well in midfield, Origi's full of confidence, Sturridge continues to get back to being Sturridge. Aside from the set plays, Liverpool again defended well – Moreno most impressively, given how isolated he was on the left for long stretches – even when playing both Toure and Skrtel, and again completely shut down the game in the final 30 minutes. But on another day, Liverpool are lucky to score two, and it's a lot closer and nervier game in the final 30 minutes. But that's football, and it's nice for Liverpool to be on the other end of that sort of luck in front of goal.

At the very least, even if it's not repeatable, this puts the side in a better place for Thursday's match. Winning, no matter how, is always a good thing. But Thursday's match will be nothing like this.

10 April 2016

Liverpool 4-1 Stoke

Goals:
Moreno 8'
Bojan 22'
Sturridge 33'
Origi 50' 65'

That was unexpected.

An even more makeshift XI than we'd guessed. Sheyi Ojo's first Liverpool start, Kevin Stewart's first start in the league. Either a 4-2-3-1 with Allen tucking in on the left or a very, very lopsided 4-3-3 formation. Two incredibly unlikely goals from distance, two point-blank headers from picture-perfect crosses.

It was nervy for 10 minutes – after Liverpool, again, conceded an equalizer from, again, a set play – but it ended an easy 4-1 win, the final 30 minutes an utter formality. Almost, but not quite as emphatic an embarrassment to the opposition as last season's 1-6 horror show.

Moreno started the party atmosphere following a quick free kick, an unfathomable rocket from distance, probably the best shot he'll hit in his life. But, and not for the first time, Liverpool couldn't immediately build on it, and conceded an equalizer within 15 minutes: Skrtel's unnecessary foul, Shaqiri's outstanding set play delivery, Bojan somehow ghosting behind Ojo. It was the 16th equalizer that Liverpool have conceded this season, and third consecutive match where Liverpool had gone 1-0 up only to see the opposition level matters, each equalizer coming 10-to-15 minutes after Liverpool's opener. The match prior to those three saw Liverpool go 2-0 up, only to lose 2-3.

But not today. Redemption for Ojo's marginal error on the equalizer, beating Shaqiri for pace down the left before an unbelievable left-footed cross to Sturridge, somehow winning a header in front of two Stoke center-backs with the keeper stuck on his goal-line.

Again, Liverpool couldn't quite push on, with few scares from Stoke, but few scares put to Stoke as well, with the match feeling like a late-season game between two teams who'd secured their league position. Changes were needed to win, but it was still surprising to see Liverpool remove Ojo on halftime, Liverpool having retaken the lead thanks to his wonderful run and assist.

Credit where due. It was the move which sealed the victory, Origi extending then cementing Liverpool's win within 20 minutes. Another Liverpool set play, this time a corner, taken short. Another ideal cross, from Milner, to Origi from close range, a Liverpool striker again eluding Stoke's first-choice center-backs. 15 minutes later, the Belgian on a breakaway: an attempted cross to Sturridge from outside the box finding the back of the net instead.

As against Southampton in the League Cup and Villa in the league – when it rains, it pours. And Origi even missed a chance as good as his opener in between the goals, unable to direct his 61st minute header from Moreno's cross on-target.

I guess starting, and scoring, at Dortmund was good for his confidence.

It'd have been fun had Liverpool gone for broke, gone for, say, six goals to match the drubbing Liverpool suffered a year ago, but that they didn't was more than understandable. 4-1 up, 25 minutes to play, Dortmund on Thursday. Just kill the game. Which Liverpool assuredly did. First Lallana for Firmino, then Lucas for Allen, making sure that an exasperated Stoke had no time or space to find a consolation as Liverpool packed the midfield.

Last Thursday, Liverpool didn't allow a shot after the 59th minute, an amazing defensive performance to deny a threatening Dortmund any space in the final third. Today, Liverpool allowed a single shot after the 66th minute, a speculative effort from Crouch in injury time, steadily seeing out a dead match against dead opposition.

They were very different end stages to the match, against very different opposition. But Liverpool were defensively secure and able to take every breath of air out of the match in both. That's impressive.

This is the first time Liverpool have scored two goals from inside the six-yard box in the same match this season. It's just the second time that Liverpool have scored two headers in the same match (6-0 at Villa) or two goals from outside the box (also 6-0 at Villa). It's just the second time that Liverpool have scored two set play goals in the same match (6-0 at Villa; are you sensing a trend?).

But this wasn't facing a supremely terrible Aston Villa. Liverpool were up against opposition which sat two points and one place ahead of them in the table. The last three meetings between these two sides all ended in an 0-1 away win. And Liverpool still won, emphatically.

We've thankfully seen some big scores and big margins of victory this season: 4-1 City, 6-1 Southampton, 6-0 Villa, even 5-4 Norwich. But this is the first time that Liverpool have done it at home, the first time they've scored four at Anfield since 4-1 against Swansea in December 2014. Which, incidentally, was the only times Liverpool scored four last season.

It's nice to go into the next home match on the back of this, even if it'll be a very different XI using very different XI against very different opposition. But we've also seen Liverpool become almost complacent after previous big scores and big wins, tons of goals followed by none, using up all those goals at once: 6-1 Southampton followed by 0-2 Newcastle, 5-4 Norwich followed by 0-1 Stoke, 6-0 Villa followed by 0-0 Augsburg. It should be hard to be complacent against Dortmund with a place in a European semi-final at stake.

This is a good step for building momentum and for building consistency, despite the aforementioned multiple changes. For building a squad, building a team. But it's only a small step.

09 April 2016

Liverpool v Stoke 04.10.16

11am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Live Extra

Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Stoke aet (h; League Cup) 01.26.16
1-0 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 01.05.16
1-0 Liverpool (a) 08.09.15
1-6 Stoke (a) 05.24.15

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Dortmund (a); 1-1 Tottenham (h); 2-3 Southampton (a)
Stoke: 2-2 Swansea (h); 2-1 Watford (a); 1-2 Southampton (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Firmino 8; Benteke, Coutinho 7; Milner 5; Sturridge 4; Lallana 3; Henderson, Ings, Lallana, Origi 2; Allen, Can, Clyne, Skrtel, Toure 1
Stoke: Arnautovic 10; Bojan 6; Walters 5; Diouf, Joselu 4; Shaqiri 3; Afellay 2; Imbula 1

Referee: Mark Clattenburg

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Flanagan Lovren Sakho Smith
Stewart Allen
Ibe Firmino Milner
Sturridge

How much does this match matter?

Liverpool probably aren't finishing any higher than sixth, and seventh seems more likely. That's *maybe* Europa League qualification – which, although it's been a really fun ride this season, often causes more harm than good as far as contending in the league goes.

Emre Can's suspended. Jordan Henderson's injured. And there will almost certainly be multiple players rested with an eye on what's Liverpool's most important match of the season, to come on Thursday.

So it's difficult to predict what Liverpool will do tomorrow.

Both Lucas and Stewart are back in training, but probably aren't fully fit. Which makes a midfield of Allen/Milner the most likely option, but I'm hopeful that Stewart, or Lucas (to a lesser extent), is available.

Otherwise, give Lallana, Coutinho, Origi, Clyne, and Moreno the day off, one or two to be used off the bench if really needed. Bring both Sturridge and Firmino back into the XI. Continue with the 4-2-3-1/4-4-2ish formation that, Dortmund notwithstanding, we've usually seen. Use either Ibe, or even Ojo, as a replacement wide attacker. Use this match as an opportunity for some young and out-of-favor players, but don't completely tank it either. The final league position, whether sixth or ninth or anywhere in between, may not matter much, but a bit of positive momentum going into a massive home match against Dortmund certainly matters.

Meanwhile, Stoke currently sit two points and one place ahead of Liverpool in the table, having played two more games. They've lost some of the Stokealona aura, only joint-12th in goals scored this season and inconsistent in recent form, very much not helped by injuries. In the last month, they've drawn twice (at Chelsea and against Swansea), lost to Southampton, and beat Watford. It's all been very upper mid-table. Which is pretty much what Liverpool have been as well.

Cameron, Shaqiri, and Shawcross are questionable. Arnautovic, Johnson, and Whelan are doubtful. Butland, Walters, and Wilson will definitely be absent. Eight of those nine players are usual starters.

So, like Liverpool, it's difficult to guess Stoke's XI, if for different reasons. Let's just assume most of the questionable players will be fit, as well as Arnautovic, just because he's so crucial to Stoke, responsible for 10 goals and five assists. Which would make the XI something like Haugaard; Cameron, Shawcross, Wollscheid, Pieters; Imbula, Afellay; Shaqiri, Bojan, Arnautovic; Joselu.

Maybe Bardsley keeps his place at right back, with Cameron in midfield (in place of Shaqiri or Bojan, sitting deeper with Imbula and Affelay further forward) or at center-back. Maybe Mame Biram Diouf starts up front rather than Joselu. Stoke still have options, but those options are much more limited than when these sides met in the League Cup semi-final.

Regardless of each's personnel, except this match to go how the others have gone: a fairly even but fairly sterile match with few chances and few goals. Both sides will have spells of possession, although Liverpool will undoubtedly have more. Stoke will have chances on the counter and on set plays.

Liverpool and Stoke have played each other three times this season. The away side has won 1-0 in each of those meetings. Coutinho's league goal was a shot from nowhere that somehow went in. Ibe and Arnautovic's League Cup goals both came from counter-attacks, with Arnautovic's also very offside.

Stoke will want to continue that away win trend, and even the score after their disheartening League Cup loss on penalties, a result which preceded a three-match losing streak.

Liverpool will want to get through this, by hook, crook, or luck. Just do the job, and hope that players who don't usually start take their chance to impress. Klopp won't let his side look past this match, but we're all aware what's most important for Liverpool this week.

08 April 2016

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Borussia Dortmund

Previous Match Infographics: Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.


(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

Like Liverpool's weekend fixture, it was a match that Liverpool could and probably should have won.

Like Liverpool's weekend fixture, it's a result that still encourages much more than it annoys, and even more so given venue, competition, and opposition.



Dortmund are unbeaten since returning from Germany's winter break, with 14 wins and just two draws – 0-0s against first-place Bayern Munich and at third-place Hertha Berlin – since January 19. They'd kept a clean sheet in 10 of those 16, including six of the eight in Dortmund, with Hoffenheim scoring once (before Dortmund came back to win 3-1) and Werder scoring twice (before Dortmund came back to win 3-2).

Dortmund scored at least two goals in 11 of those 16 matches, including five in two matches against Tottenham (Liverpool scored once and conceded once in 180 minutes against Tottenham), and three at Augsburg (Liverpool failed to score at Augsburg, with one goal in 180 minutes while holding Augsburg scoreless).

It hasn't been updated since March 20 (there's been one league game since), but by Michael Caley's Expected Goals metric, there are only two teams with a higher xG total than Borussia Dortmund in the four major European leagues: Barcelona and Real Madrid. [La Liga/Serie A/Bundesliga] [Premier League]

Aside from Dortmund's first half threat, usually requiring crucial intervention from Sakho and Lovren, with key blocks on Mkhitaryan and Aubameyang respectively, Liverpool did exceptionally well to smother the home side. Dortmund's best two chances – Hummels' goal and Reus' injury time close-range clear-cut chance when Liverpool failed to clear – came from corners.

Dortmund had chances, took 16 shots in total. And only four teams have taken more than 16 shots against Klopp's Liverpool: Manchester City in the 120-minute League Cup final (20), West Ham (18), Tottenham (18), and Manchester United in the away Europa League match (17). Liverpool forced Dortmund to take 10 of their 16 shots from outside the box (three on, two off, five blocked). Through Dortmund's 28 league matches, they'd taken 65.4% of their total shots from inside the box (285 of 436).

And most notably, Dortmund's last shot of the match came in the 59th minute. 16 shots through 59 minutes. Zero shots for the final 30 minutes. There was more than half an hour remaining. You're at home. You want at least one more goal to diminish the opposition's away goal advantage. And you can't even get off a shot: not a speculative blast from distance, not a set play opportunity. Good lord.

Over the course of those 30 minutes, Liverpool used three different formations. First, the same 4-3-3 as the first half, with Allen a straight replacement for Henderson. Then, a switch to 4-1-4-1, with Milner wide and Lallana and Allen usually, nominally ahead of Can. Then, after Firmino and Sturridge came on, an orthodox 4-4-2. And Dortmund couldn't penetrate any of them.

Regardless of formation, Liverpool's midfield mostly held its shape (looking at Can and Milner going missing a couple of times in the first half, when charging out to press, but only a couple). Liverpool's fullbacks focused on defense, especially Clyne keeping the dangerous Reus quiet. Liverpool mostly denied Mkhitaryan space centrally. And when Liverpool lost players in open play, Sakho or Lovren were there to make the necessary stop. It was a complete team effort, and, again, aside from a solitary set play, Liverpool impressively succeeded.

Over those final 30 minutes, Liverpool only took one shot of their own, Clyne from wide, just inside the box, swiftly blocked. One shot, for either side, in the last half hour of a contentious, vital Europa League quarterfinal. And I'm admittedly biased, but it wasn't a dire, ugly, Allardyce versus Pulis match either. That's strangling the absolute life out of a game. That's a serious Klopping.

We've had our issues – set plays, individual errors, late goals, conceding after taking a lead; you remember Southampton away, etc. – but this can be, and surprisingly often is, a damned good defense. Especially when Liverpool sit deep and focus on defense, conservative but smothering, but even, at times, when Liverpool open up a bit more.

Liverpool's last open play goal conceded in the Europa League came against Rubin Kazan on October 22. In the 15th minute of that match. That was Klopp's second match at Liverpool. That was 795 minutes of European football ago.

Liverpool limited to Dortmund to two clear-cut chances – the aforementioned Hummels' free header goal and Reus from an uncleared corner. Both from set plays, one scored, one saved. But, because Liverpool, neither of their big chances were taken: Lovren's free header in the 21st minute and Origi denied by Weidenfeller one-v-one just before halftime.

And that's why, for all the praise due to Liverpool's defense, Liverpool are leaving Germany with just a slender away goal advantage rather than an out-and-out lead. Lovren's header, Origi's one-v-one, Coutinho twice denied by Weidenfeller in the 51st and 52nd minutes, Clyne's excellent shot from distance palmed away during the same spell.

We've been here before. Liverpool unable to convert good chances, to convert clear-cut chances. I've banged on and on and on about "clear-cut chances" this season, but we've yet more evidence of the issue. Yes, it's a subjective metric, up the game statistician to decide when an attack "should" score. And it hasn't yet hurt Liverpool in this competition. But Liverpool have now converted just three of 22 non-penalty clear-cut chances in the Europa League this season. Three. Of 22.

And yet, somehow, Liverpool remain unbeaten in this competition. Probably has something to do with Liverpool conceding just six goals in this competition's 11 matches.

At least Liverpool got one goal. That's better than we'd assumed, and gives Liverpool a surprising, if marginal, advantage going into next week's home leg. But it could, and it should, have been even more, even better.

And, sadly, that's the story of Liverpool's season so far. Narrow margins and opportunities untaken. But they've a chance to write a different story in a week's time.

06 April 2016

Liverpool at Borussia Dortmund 04.07.16

3:05pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Tottenham (h); 2-3 Southampton (a); 1-1 United (a)
Dortmund: 3-2 Werder Bremen (h); 3-1 Augsburg (a); 2-1 Tottenham (a)

Previous EL rounds:
Liverpool: 1-1 United (a), 2-0 United (h); 1-0 Augsburg (h), 0-0 Augsburg (a); 0-0 Sion (a); 2-1 Bordeaux (h); 1-0 Kazan (a); 1-1 Kazan (h); 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Dortmund: 2-1 Tottenham (a), 3-0 Tottenham (h); 1-0 Porto (a), 2-0 Porto (h); 0-1 PAOK (h); 0-1 Krasnodar (a); 4-0 Qabala (h); 3-1 Qabala (a); 1-1 PAOK (a); 2-1 Krasnodar (h); 7-2 Odd (h); 3-4 Odd (a); 5-0 Wolfsberger (h); 1-0 Wolfsberger (a)

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Lallana, Milner 2; Benteke, Can, Coutinho, Firmino, Ibe, Sturridge 1
Dortmund: Aubameyang 10; Reus 8; Mkhitaryan 6; Kagawa 3; Castro, Ginter, Gündogan, Hoffman, Park, Piszczek 1

Referee: Carlos Velasco Carballo (ESP)

Incidentally, the same referee in charge of Liverpool's 2-0 win over Manchester United last month.

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Sakho Moreno
Henderson Can Milner
Lallana Firmino Coutinho

Forget about The Jürgen Klopp Derby for a second. It'll be lovely and nostalgic and a great reception in a great venue against a great side, but this isn't a friendly. It's the quarterfinals of a European competition. It's Liverpool's only remaining chance at a trophy, even if it's an unlikely chance. It's Liverpool best chance of redeeming this troublesome, inconsistent season.

The love-fest is getting a little nauseating, guys.

So let's treat this like an actual, contentious football match. How the hell are Liverpool going to stop this side?

Is Firmino fit to start and does Liverpool do what Liverpool have done in almost every recent match or change tactics and formation to try to cope with Dortmund's firepower?

I'm tempted to think that Liverpool will revert to a 4-3-3, with either Firmino or Sturridge up front rather than both: more solidity in midfield, with either Milner or Allen joining Henderson and Can, and a more counter-attacking style against a side that'll see an awful lot of the ball. It'd be no surprise to see Liverpool dance with what brung them. The 4-2-3-1/4-4-2; the same XI as Sunday if Firmino's unavailable or with the Brazilian replacing either Lallana or Milner (the latter, please).

But Liverpool will necessarily be more reliant on the counter-attack. On heavily pressing Dortmund's defense and midfield. On closing off the space for players like Mkhitaryan, Reus, Kagawa, etc. to operate, on more protection for an error-prone defense that'll probably play deeper and need more options to quickly pass out from the back. Extra protection in front of the defense, better pressers up front, a more cohesive counter-attacking front three – ideally, the same as we saw at Manchester City a few months back.

The above line-up is not a slight on Sturridge. Sure, he's not been at his best, but he remains a crucial player for Liverpool. I just think that, given form and opposition, Liverpool could be better suited with him coming off the bench. And that's only if Firmino's availability gives Liverpool the option.

Meanwhile, if not for Bayern Munich, Dortmund would be running away with the Bundesliga, five points behind Bayern but 19 points ahead of third-place Hertha Berlin. Tuchel's revived the side which finished seventh last season, adding more possession, control, and defensive solidity to Klopp's heavy metal football.

Barcelona and Bayern seemingly remain the definitive top tier, but Dortmund are in the conversation for the next group, along with the likes of Juventus, PSG, Real Madrid, and Atletico. It remains baffling that they fell apart to such a degree last season to be in the Europa League this season. And to allow Jürgen Klopp to become Liverpool's manager

The biggest difference has been in attack. Like Liverpool this season, Dortmund vastly underperformed xG last season, the stats suggesting they were and should have been much better than their output. That's not the case now, having scored 67 goals through 28 league matches, one more than Bayern. Marco Reus remains Marco Reus, Aubameyang has continued to develop into a complete Ferrari speedster, and Henrikh of House Mkhitaryan has been a totally different player under Tuchel. Combined, those three players have scored 43 league goals this season. Liverpool, in total and in two more matches, have 46.

It's not just the attack though. Only Bayern have conceded fewer Bundesliga goals: 27 to Dortmund's 28. Dortmund have conceded just once in the four Europa League knock-out games: the last match at Tottenham, a late consolation with the tie already won. It doesn't happen often, but Dortmund's defense can be beaten: they conceded, albeit just once, in both league matches against Augsburg this season, a side that never looked like scoring against Liverpool. Of course, they also won those matches 5-1 and 3-1. Dortmund dropped two quick goals, albeit with a makeshift center-back pairing, to relegation-threatened Bremen last week. Of course, then two substitutes scored within five minutes to reclaim the lead.

And Dortmund won't have the makeshift center-back problem tomorrow. Hummels, Sokratis, and Sahin are all available after missing matches recently, while Gündogan may be as well, also back in training but still a slight doubt because of the foot injury which kept him out for the last month. Subotic is definitely absent.

So the XI is mostly likely Bürki; Piszczek, Sokratis, Hummels, Schmelzer; Weigl, Gündogan; Kagawa, Mkhitaryan, Reus; Aubameyang. If Gündogan's unavailable, it could be Sahin, Castro, or Bender in midfield. The improved Ginter could keep his spot in defense if Tuchel's wary of bringing both Sokratis and Hummels back in at the same time. Durm could play at right back in place of Piszczek or in midfield in place of Kagawa. Heck, Dortmund's even gone three at the back at times, something like a 3-4-2-1, last season a month ago in the home draw with Bayern.

It must be nice to have impressive options in literally every area of the pitch.

All of the above isn't to say that Liverpool can't win. They don't even need to win tomorrow to win the tie, although isn't not hard to argue that Liverpool are better built to compete away rather than at home, at least in this match-up.

But it ain't gonna be easy. Liverpool will have to be at its best – the chance creation and finishing that we saw in both league meetings against City combined with the defensive solidity that's sometimes present, mostly against England's lesser lights. And, honestly, Dortmund will have to be off their game as well.

Crazier things have happened. To Liverpool, by Liverpool, this season and in past memorable European matches. And at the very least, you can rest assured that Liverpool won't make it easy for Dortmund.

Not in the Jürgen Klopp Derby.

04 April 2016

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Tottenham

Previous Match Infographics: Southampton (a), Manchester United (a), Manchester United (h), Crystal Palace (a), Manchester City (h), Manchester City [League Cup] (n), Augsburg (h), Augsburg (a), Aston Villa (a), Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


Much has been written about Liverpool's diabolic passing on Saturday. Just 367 attempted, 256 completed, 69.75% accuracy. All three of those stats are Liverpool's second-worst in a league match this season.

It was not good, and Tottenham's personnel and playing style assuredly made it worse.

It seems worth reminding that a lower passing accuracy isn't necessarily symptomatic of a bad performance. Liverpool's lowest accuracy of the season was 68% in the 4-1 win at City. The next lowest, prior to Saturday, was 71.2% in the 0-0 draw at Arsenal, which is the only match where Liverpool attempted and completed fewer passes than on Saturday. Both were matches where Liverpool willingly conceded possession in the hopes of playing on the counter, as they did on Saturday. They very much succeeded in the former fixture, and weren't far off in the latter, keeping a clean sheet but unable to convert one of the handful of good chances created.

Both of those linked match infographics have a fair few similarities to the above, outside of solely Liverpool's passing. But both of those matches also took place away from home.

While a lot of credit goes to what Tottenham did – and what Tottenham kept Liverpool from doing – it's also worth remembering that Liverpool are very much a different passing side (and, obviously, different side in general) than they were under Brendan Rodgers. And it's a style they're still adjusting to, with fairly dramatic changes coming in the middle of the season.

Liverpool's passing has been admittedly more erratic throughout Klopp's tenure. It's a matter of being more direct, playing quicker passes, aiming for faster transitions. It's less important to keep patient control of the ball when you thrive by frenetically winning it back. Rodgers had moved further away from it in each of his seasons, but this most certainly isn't the cringy 'death by football' anymore. In the first eight league matches of the season, Liverpool averaged 81.4% pass accuracy. In Klopp's 22 league matches, the average is 78.5%. Incidentally, Liverpool's passing accuracy in Rodgers' 122 matches was 83.7%, and Liverpool's passing accuracy was never below 70% in a league match under Rodgers.

Obviously, it'd have been better had Liverpool been more accurate on Saturday. Tottenham did exceptionally well to disrupt Liverpool in every phase, especially in defense and midfield, as further demonstrated by the above passing network: unable to play out from the back, Liverpool got the ball forward quickly, mainly from Clyne and Moreno to Henderson, Milner, and Coutinho, with the deeper Emre Can and the center-backs on the ball much, much less than usual. I suspect it'd have been an even better strategy were Firmino available, much more capable of linking up with the impressive Coutinho, much more capable of creating and scoring in the final third.

It's still a strategy that could, and almost did, succeed. Rather than Liverpool's passing accuracy or struggles out from the back, the bigger problem was, again, that Liverpool failed to convert enough of its chances. This season has turned me into a broken record.

Daniel Sturridge, by far Liverpool's best striker, missed two clear-cut opportunities: put through by Coutinho in the 36th, his shot straight at Lloris, and an awkward close-ranger header over in the 57th. He's now converted just two of nine non-penalty clear-cut chances in the Premier League and Europa League.



We're almost at Benteke levels of conversion here. To be fair, Sturridge has missed mountains of time over the last 18 months. He's had almost as many clear-cut chances as Benteke – and scored the same amount – despite playing barely more than half as much time. Only Firmino, barely, has scored more clear-cut chances per 90 minutes. But that's still a very bad conversion rate for very good chances. And Liverpool, obviously, very much need Sturridge scoring those chances.

To be fair, Tottenham missed both its clear-cut chances as well: Alli's header in the 49th and Son's wayward shot in the 58th. But it's a much more consistent problem for Liverpool; they've converted just 22 of 62 non-penalty big chances in the league and Europa League this season (19 of 42 in the league; yes, it's really been that much worse in Europe). And while Sturridge missed those two notable chances on Saturday, Lallana's shot somehow saved by Lloris in the 40th minute and Coutinho's effort wide in the 85th were opportunities almost as good as the two that Sturridge failed to seize.

Had Liverpool converted just one more shot on Saturday, it's a successful strategy. Or, had Liverpool stayed more compact on Tottenham's goal (or had Eriksen's touch, or Kane's turn, or Kane's shot not been as good as they were), it's a successful strategy. Those are the fine margins which Liverpool have trod all season long. And been on the wrong side of for the majority of said season.

Regardless, there were positives: Coutinho, the draw, limiting good Tottenham chances even if Tottenham were able to take 18 shots, Lovren except for the goal. Liverpool faced a better version of itself in the mirror and came away equal. Liverpool can be a very good counter-attacking team and a fairly good defensive team. It's just that, still, we don't see it often enough, consistently enough. Tottenham is more cohesive, more settled, and, for the most part, more impressive: Kane's the best striker in the league, Eriksen's a chance creation machine, Dier and Dembele are an impressively balanced midfield, and time under Pochettino has led to Tottenham adopting of Pochettino's methods better than Liverpool have adopted Klopp's so far. Every player – even the previously questionable Walker and Rose at full-back – have improved under this manager in this system. Liverpool can be that – you can easily see "Sturridge" replacing "Kane," "Coutinho" replacing "Eriksen," and "Henderson and Can" replacing "Dier and Dembele" in the previous sentence – but Liverpool need more time to be that.

I'm fairly certain that Liverpool will play similarly on Thursday – without the ball for long stretches, on the back foot, reliant on the counter-attack and staying secure at the back – facing opposition that plays in a comparable manner, this time away from home. But Liverpool will be facing opposition that are vastly better at it than Tottenham.

02 April 2016

Liverpool 1-1 Tottenham

Goals:
Coutinho 51'
Kane 63'

That was a surprisingly decent game of football.

Usually when you see two Premier League sides cancel each other out, it's high on energy but low on quality. The Allardyce vs Pulis matches, the 0-0 when Sunderland and West Brom earlier today.

This was high on energy, but also reasonably high on quality. Liverpool (and Tottenham, to a lesser extent) could have done better with their chances. Both sides struggled to cope with the opposition's pressing, especially Liverpool and especially Sakho. Both midfields battled excellently, neither side keeping possession especially well but both keeping the other from asserting extended control. Both sides responded to the opposition's threats: Tottenham's patient improvement to start the second half followed by Liverpool's excellent counter-attack opener; Liverpool's switch to 4-3-3 after the equalizer to reinforce the midfield and reestablish some semblance of control (something Liverpool notably failed to do in the loss at Southampton).

And both sides scored an outstanding goal: Coutinho and Sturridge's one-two (also featuring Lallana's necessary run to take away Wimmer); Eriksen somehow keeping the ball in play to set up Kane, wonderfully turning the otherwise-excellent Lovren before an unerring shot just inside the far post. Just one outstanding goal though, despite Kane and Son's misses from good positions, Sturridge and Lallana's efforts saved, Dembele and Eriksen denied from distance, Alderweireld's last minute header just wide.

But, yeah, it was also a surprisingly decent game of football which Liverpool probably should have won, edging Tottenham on the better chances. And it's not the first time that Liverpool drew when when Liverpool 'should have won.'

Still, I'm surprisingly okay with the fact that it ended level. Tottenham are a good football team who did good things and scored a good goal. Maybe the season's beaten me down to this, an inability to get angry when Liverpool again drop points from a winning position. After similar happened against Bordeaux, Norwich, Sion, Everton, Southampton, West Brom, Arsenal, Sunderland, and Southampton. At least it's becoming less frequent?

But Tottenham needed the points a lot more than Liverpool; if Leicester win tomorrow, it's a seven-point gap with six to play and reasonably likely to be the end of the title race. Liverpool remain mired in the fifth-to-tenth upper mid-table shuffle, and would be there no matter today's result because of all that came before. Tottenham hadn't beaten Liverpool since November 2012, and hadn't won at Anfield since May 2011, a match that Liverpool basically threw away in trying to avoid the Europa League. Tottenham are 17 points ahead of Liverpool in the table, and at the moment, a much better and more settled side.

Regardless of Tottenham's inability to beat Liverpool for nearly four years, this was a match that Tottenham should have been favored in given each side's respective form and position in the table. But Liverpool matched and nearly surpassed a Tottenham side that plays like Liverpool want to play, but with more experience doing so. Even considering Liverpool's failure to win, Liverpool's flaws at the back (giving the ball away when under pressure, especially Sakho), Liverpool's recurring inability to consistently convert chances, and the fact that Liverpool did absolutely nothing with 12 (!!!) corners, there were a lot more positives than negatives.

And Philippe Coutinho was the biggest positive, an absolute revelation, the epicenter of everything good in attack. The goal. The clear-cut chance created for Sturridge in the first half, the clear-cut chance cross for a Sturridge header six minutes after the opener. Setting up both of Lallana's first half chances which were saved by Lloris. Centering across the face of goal for an almost own goal in the 70th, an effort just wide in the 85th. Five chances created (two clear-cut) and five shots, including Liverpool's lone goal.

There has been a fair amount of individual improvement since Klopp became manager: Lallana, Lovren, Can, Sakho, Allen, etc. All players signed by the previous manager, incidentally. Coutinho's increasing consistency from the inside left position – a position we often argued about under the previous manager – might be the most impressive.

Nonetheless, this match still reinforces the overriding narrative. Almost, better, but not quite good enough. There have been highs, and there have been lower lows, but this has been the main story of the season. Still, in almost every case, my takeaway has been that this is going to be a really, really good Liverpool side when they get their act together. When, not if.

Infrequently, we've already seen it, including at times today. But I assume it really starts next season.

01 April 2016

Liverpool v Tottenham 04.02.16

12:30pm ET, live in the US on NBC

Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (a) 10.17.15
3-2 Liverpool (h) 02.10.15
3-0 Liverpool (a) 08.31.14
4-0 Liverpool (h) 03.30.14

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-3 Southampton (a); 1-1 United (a); 2-0 United (h)
Tottenham: 3-0 Bournemouth (h); 1-2 Dortmund (h); 2-0 Villa (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Firmino 8; Benteke 7; Coutinho 6; Milner 5; Sturridge 4; Lallana 3; Henderson, Ings, Lallana, Origi 2; Allen, Can, Clyne, Skrtel, Toure 1
Tottenham: Kane 21; Alli 7; Eriksen 6; Alderweireld, Chadli, Dembele, Dier, Lamela 3; Son 2; Carroll, Mason, Rose, Trippier, Walker 1

Referee: Jon Moss

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Sakho Moreno
Henderson Can
Milner Lallana Coutinho
Sturridge

Maybe the international break will have been good for Liverpool.


Liverpool most definitely need to forget that match. It never happened, don't do it again. Ideally, the international break – either joining up with their national sides or training with Klopp in Tenerife – will have helped do so.

Of course, the international break can't be too good for Liverpool. Origi's available, despite leaving the Belgian squad with a thigh injury, as is Coutinho, who traveled to South America and back in the space of a week. Moreno's questionable due to an injury sustained before the break, while Firmino's doubtful with a similar issue. Benteke, who also left the Belgian squad, won't be fit.

Aside from the Belgians, everyone else came back fit. Even Sturridge, who trained with Hodgson for a whole week and played 60 minutes against Holland without any issues. That's always a welcomed bonus.

Liverpool's XI seemingly depends on Firmino's fitness. If he's available, it's what we've seen for the last few weeks: the 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 hybrid, the only personnel questions about whether Moreno's fit enough to feature and whether it's Lallana or Milner who plays on the right.

If he's not, it's most likely Lallana in Firmino's role and Milner on the right. However, a more "orthodox" 4-4-2 isn't out of the question: Origi instead of Milner, Lallana and Coutinho "wide," Henderson and Can in midfield. Or, possibly, more of a diamond midfield, with Can at the base, Henderson and Lallana on the sides, and Coutinho at the apex.

Whatever formation or personnel Liverpool choose, Liverpool will have to out-work the hardest working side in the league, create chances and take those chances, and not do anything stupid in defense. As per usual. The first half at Southampton, not the second half.

And whatever formation or personnel Liverpool choose, they'll be facing the best defense in the league. They'll be facing a side that's done what Liverpool need to do in the future, that plays how Liverpool will try to play next season. A water-tight defense, an insane work-rate, intense pressing, runners from midfield adding to the attack, a superstar striker staying fit and scoring for fun.

Spurs are mostly healthy after the international break: Alderweireld missed Belgium's games through illness but trained this week, while Vertonghen, Bentaleb, and N'Jie remain injured. Which probably makes Spurs' XI the same Spurs XI we've seen over the last few weeks. A 4-3-3 that sometimes appears a 4-2-3-1: Lloris; Walker, Alderweireld, Wimmer, Rose; Dier, Dembele, Alli; Lamela, Kane, Eriksen.

In the unlikely case that Alderweireld's not available, Dier probably has to drop into defense, with either Mason as a direct replacement in midfield or, more likely, a shuffle in midfield makes the side much more of a 4-2-3-1, either Son or Chadli coming into the attacking line of three. There's also a slight possibility that the more rested Son Heung-Min plays instead of Lamela, who – like Coutinho – traveled to and from South America even if he didn't get off the bench for Argentina.

Liverpool have been hit and miss after international breaks. We saw the 1-3 at Manchester United debacle under Rodgers, 0-0 at Tottenham in Klopp's first match, and then the 4-1 demolition of Manchester City. In Liverpool's defense, none of those were easy matches, all were away from home, and they've gotten better results in each successive fixture. That said, international breaks haven't affected Tottenham as much, if at all: in addition to that 0-0 against Liverpool, they played out a boring, unimpressive 1-0 win at Sunderland and crushed West Ham 4-1.

There's no way that a Klopp side looks past tomorrow's game. But let's be clear: league matches have become much more important to Tottenham than they are for Liverpool. One side needs to keep pace with Leicester, the other saw an already unlikely attempt at fourth finally go bye-bye after the collapse at Southampton. If Tottenham lose while Leicester win this weekend, it'll be an eight-point gap with six games to play – a sentence that still confuses the hell out of me. All of Liverpool's hopes are in the Europa League, with Dortmund (you know, probably the third- or fourth-best team in Europe) coming to Anfield five days after this fixture.

Tottenham will also be well aware that they haven't beaten Liverpool since November 2012, in Brendan Rodgers' first match against this opposition. Since then: 3-2, 5-0, 4-0, 3-0, 3-2, and 0-0.

Two sides who play in a similar manner, with one more settled and simply better at it (at least for the moment). One side still chasing the title, and with revenge on its mind. One side who needs to respond after the last league failure and to build momentum before a massive Europa League match, who wants to take yet another big scalp after beating City twice, Chelsea, and their undying rivals in European competition.

Tottenham take the most shots per match in the league, Liverpool the third-most. Liverpool allow the second-fewest shots per match in the league, Tottenham the fourth-fewest. Tottenham have scored the most goals in the league, Liverpool have, um, not. Tottenham have conceded the fewest goals in the league, Liverpool have, um, not. This could end 3-2, for the third time in the last four seasons, it could end 0-0 for the second successive meeting.

Regardless, it will be brutal. As well it should be. Look out.