3:05pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 2
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 6-0 Villa (a); 1-2 West Ham aet (a)2-2 Sunderland (h)
Augsburg: 1-3 Bayern (h); 1-2 Ingolstadt (a); 0-0 Eintracht Frankfurt (h)
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 0-0 Sion (a); 2-1 Bordeaux (h); 1-0 Kazan (a); 1-1 Kazan (h); 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Augsburg: 3-1 Partizan (a); 2-3 Athletic Bilbao (h); 4-1 AZ (h); 0-1 AZ (a); 1-3 Partizan (h); 1-3 Athletic (a)
Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Lallana 2, Benteke, Can, Ibe, Milner 1
Augsburg: Bobadilla 6; Trochowski 2; Altintop, Hong, Ji, Verhaegh 1
Referee: David Fernández Borbalán (ESP)
Borbalán's actually done a Liverpool match before: the 0-1 loss at Anahi Makhachkala in this competition in 2012.
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Toure Sakho Moreno
Henderson Can
Milner Firmino Coutinho
Sturridge
Unless certain players aren't fit enough (looking at you, Daniel, Jordan, and Kolo), I can't see Liverpool's XI being much different than Sunday's.
There are perpetually concerns about players' fitness, especially the aforementioned certain players. But Liverpool have had four days since the win over Villa, and will have a full week before the home leg of this fixture. There haven't been any rumors of problems since Sunday, at least other than Kevin Stewart's ankle injury, and he's not in the Europa League squad anyway. Lucas will return to the squad, while Lallana, Lovren, Skrtel, and Allen are still absent.
Maybe Sturridge is protected and either Origi or Benteke start up front, although I'd argue that if Sturridge is going to play at all, he should do so from the start, where he's much more effective than as a substitute. Maybe Henderson's ongoing heel problem means that he needs a match off, and Lucas comes into midfield. Maybe Caulker, or even Lucas, replaces Toure. Maybe Ibe comes in for Milner, or maybe Firmino starts as the central striker in a 4-3-3.
All of those changes are possibilities, although I suspect they're less likely than the alternatives. But otherwise, same as before. It's clearly Liverpool's strongest XI at the moment, Liverpool's fixture list is finally easing, and this competition has become even more important than it seemed back in December thanks to continued failings in the league. There won't be any more XIs like those at Sion or at Bordeaux.
Liverpool need this competition.
Meanwhile, Augsburg are currently 14th in the 18-team Bundesliga, winless in their last four since returning from Germany's month-long winter break. They're one point outside the relegation playoffs and eight points from the top half of the table.
14th seems just about right after a quick look at their statistics. Only four sides have scored fewer league goals, only five sides have conceded more league goals. Augsburg allow the most shots per-game in the Bundesliga, although a large portion come from outside the box – and, incidentally, Liverpool really like shooting from outside the box. And at the other end of the pitch, only two Bundesliga sides take a higher percentage of their shots from outside the box: Ingolstadt (12th) and Hannover (18th).
Augsburg want to do what a lot of sides have done to Liverpool. And have succeeded by doing to Liverpool. Soak up Liverpool's pressure, close down quickly and congest space in midfield and in their defensive half, force sides to take their shots from less dangerous positions, and then counter-attack. Only Stuttgart have taken more shots from counter-attacking situations in the Bundesliga. At least Augsburg don't often score from set plays – only four league goals – but Liverpool can concede from set plays against anyone. Augsburg do, however, win penalties; only Bayern has scored more from the spot.
I probably shouldn't embarrass us both by attempting to predict Augsburg's XI, so let's just assume it'll be similar to the side which lost 1-3 to Bayern Munich on Sunday. A compact 4-2-3-1: Hitz; Verhaegh, Hong, Klavan, Max; Kohr, Koo; Esswein, Trochowski, Caiuby; Bobadilla. January signing Goiweleeuw, who started in midfield on Sunday, is cup-tied; center-back Jeong-Ho Hong is questionable after picking up a muscle injury in that match.
Special mention need be made of Raul Bobadilla, who is the joint-top scorer in the Europa League this season. He's got as many goals as Liverpool have in total. While Augsburg struggle to score in the league, they scored in every Europa League match, hitting four once and three once, averaging two goals per game. Liverpool scored two goals in just one of their six Europa League games. Bobadilla also previously faced Liverpool – albeit a much different Liverpool – in this competition in 2012-13, scoring at Anfield and setting up a goal in Switzerland. He's exactly the type of player who can punish a single defensive lapse, no matter the run of play. Liverpool remain far too fond of making defensive lapses.
Liverpool lost at this stage of the competition in each of their last two appearances: Zenit in 2012-13 and Besiktas in 2014-15. Augsburg is seemingly weaker than both of those opponents, with the added bonus that Liverpool's manager knows the side well, but that hasn't stopped Liverpool before.
That the first leg is away from home also appears to be a bonus. Liverpool have often been better away from home this season – Watford, Newcastle, etc. notwithstanding – and any result away in European competition is a good thing, especially considering the importance of away goals. While a 0-0 draw still hands Liverpool an advantage going into the second leg, an away goal would give Liverpool a massive edge at Anfield.
So go get them goals.
17 February 2016
15 February 2016
Visualized: Liverpool 6-0 Aston Villa
Previous Match Infographics: Sunderland (h), Leicester (a), Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
Matches like that are hard to analyze, because it's hard to know just how much of that was lucky, how much was a fluke. It was fairly close in the first half, but quickly got out of hand in the second. We saw the best of Liverpool – frequently mediocre, but surprisingly competent on their day and when key players are fit – and the absolute worst of Aston Villa, who aren't especially impressive on their few-and-far-between good days.
My suspicion, unfortunately, is quite a bit of that won't happen often.
Liverpool's shooting accuracy – 81.8%, nine on-target from 11 in total – is, by far, the club's highest in a league match since I began tracking in 2012-13. The previous high was 75% in the 0-1 loss at Hull last season, where Liverpool put nine tame shots on-target and failed to score with any of them. The previous high where Liverpool actually scored was 69.2% in the 5-3 win at Stoke in 2013-14. Since 2012-13, Liverpool have shot better than 50% in just 12 league matches:
12 times in 140 matches.
Liverpool's goal conversion percentage – 60%, six goals from ten non-blocked shots – is, by far, the club's highest in a league match since 2012-13. The previous high was 55.6% at Norwich last month, which is the only other match over 50% during these three-plus seasons. Incidentally, Liverpool's third-best goal conversion percentage this season is 27.27% at City, which is a bit of a drop from the other two. And Liverpool's season-long average is a horrific 13.21% – better than 2014-15's 12.21% but vastly worse than 2013-14's 19.35%.
The last time Liverpool scored three goals from outside the box in a league match was 5-2 at Norwich in September 2012, Luis Suarez with all three. Prior to yesterday's match, Liverpool had scored just five goals from outside the box in the league in total: Coutinho at Stoke, Milner v Villa, Coutinho at Chelsea, Origi v West Brom, and Firmino v Arsenal. Liverpool scored eight last season, 17 in 2013-14, and 12 in 2012-13. Unsurprisingly, Luis Suarez accounted for a good amount of them in both 2012-13 and 2013-14 (five and seven, respectively).
The last time Liverpool had six different goalscorers in a league match was September 1989, when eight different players scored in the 9-0 win over Crystal Palace. The last time it happened in any competition was November 2000, with six different goalscorers in an 8-0 league cup win at Stoke.
And Liverpool did all of this in attack with no player taking more than two shots. Nine different players took at least one. Seven hit the target, six scored. There will be days where one player's "on" (I'm looking at you, Daniel). There will be fewer where pretty much everyone's on.
At the other end of the pitch, Liverpool have allowed their opponents one or no shots on-target in just four other league matches this season: one v Manchester United (United scored), one at Newcastle (Newcastle scored), one at Stoke, and zero v Swansea.
Six opposition shots in total was joint-second lowest in a league match this season. The low was against West Brom, where West Brom took just four shots and scored twice. The three other matches where Liverpool allowed six were at Norwich (Liverpool conceded four), at Watford (Liverpool conceded three), and at Newcastle (Liverpool conceded two).
Even when Liverpool have allowed few shots, and/or the opposition attack has offered next to nothing, Liverpool have often found a way to screw it up.
There was a lot that was unusual about Liverpool yesterday, mostly in attack, but also in defense. And I'm afraid that Aston Villa's being really really really really bad at football had a lot to do with it.
Nonetheless, it still seems clear that Sturridge, Coutinho, and Origi returning to the side will make Liverpool a much better football team. Both strikers scored, Coutinho created two assists, Firmino led the team in key passes. Having Sturridge, Coutinho, and Firmino on the pitch together will not only make Liverpool more potent, but also help to cover up some of the deficiencies in defense. I'm not comparing Liverpool's current side, or even Liverpool's potential, to 2013-14, but 2013-14 proved that a good attack can make up for defensive frailties and mistakes.
Liverpool are yet to lose when Daniel Sturridge starts this season (five matches, with three wins and two draws), and have lost just three of the 17 matches he's started over the last two seasons: at Manchester City, at Besiktas (in extra time), and v Manchester United last season. In total, Liverpool's record with him starting since 2014-15 is 11W-3D-3L. Six of those were cup ties, and I'm well aware you don't get points in cup ties, but that's an average of 2.12 points-per-game. That's an awful lot better than Liverpool's record without him.
As we're all well aware, Liverpool have found ways to fail against really really bad football teams before. Improvement is still improvement, and you can only beat what's in front of you. Liverpool haven't done that enough this season. And Liverpool certainly did yesterday.
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
Matches like that are hard to analyze, because it's hard to know just how much of that was lucky, how much was a fluke. It was fairly close in the first half, but quickly got out of hand in the second. We saw the best of Liverpool – frequently mediocre, but surprisingly competent on their day and when key players are fit – and the absolute worst of Aston Villa, who aren't especially impressive on their few-and-far-between good days.
My suspicion, unfortunately, is quite a bit of that won't happen often.
Liverpool's shooting accuracy – 81.8%, nine on-target from 11 in total – is, by far, the club's highest in a league match since I began tracking in 2012-13. The previous high was 75% in the 0-1 loss at Hull last season, where Liverpool put nine tame shots on-target and failed to score with any of them. The previous high where Liverpool actually scored was 69.2% in the 5-3 win at Stoke in 2013-14. Since 2012-13, Liverpool have shot better than 50% in just 12 league matches:
12 times in 140 matches.
Liverpool's goal conversion percentage – 60%, six goals from ten non-blocked shots – is, by far, the club's highest in a league match since 2012-13. The previous high was 55.6% at Norwich last month, which is the only other match over 50% during these three-plus seasons. Incidentally, Liverpool's third-best goal conversion percentage this season is 27.27% at City, which is a bit of a drop from the other two. And Liverpool's season-long average is a horrific 13.21% – better than 2014-15's 12.21% but vastly worse than 2013-14's 19.35%.
The last time Liverpool scored three goals from outside the box in a league match was 5-2 at Norwich in September 2012, Luis Suarez with all three. Prior to yesterday's match, Liverpool had scored just five goals from outside the box in the league in total: Coutinho at Stoke, Milner v Villa, Coutinho at Chelsea, Origi v West Brom, and Firmino v Arsenal. Liverpool scored eight last season, 17 in 2013-14, and 12 in 2012-13. Unsurprisingly, Luis Suarez accounted for a good amount of them in both 2012-13 and 2013-14 (five and seven, respectively).
The last time Liverpool had six different goalscorers in a league match was September 1989, when eight different players scored in the 9-0 win over Crystal Palace. The last time it happened in any competition was November 2000, with six different goalscorers in an 8-0 league cup win at Stoke.
And Liverpool did all of this in attack with no player taking more than two shots. Nine different players took at least one. Seven hit the target, six scored. There will be days where one player's "on" (I'm looking at you, Daniel). There will be fewer where pretty much everyone's on.
At the other end of the pitch, Liverpool have allowed their opponents one or no shots on-target in just four other league matches this season: one v Manchester United (United scored), one at Newcastle (Newcastle scored), one at Stoke, and zero v Swansea.
Six opposition shots in total was joint-second lowest in a league match this season. The low was against West Brom, where West Brom took just four shots and scored twice. The three other matches where Liverpool allowed six were at Norwich (Liverpool conceded four), at Watford (Liverpool conceded three), and at Newcastle (Liverpool conceded two).
Even when Liverpool have allowed few shots, and/or the opposition attack has offered next to nothing, Liverpool have often found a way to screw it up.
There was a lot that was unusual about Liverpool yesterday, mostly in attack, but also in defense. And I'm afraid that Aston Villa's being really really really really bad at football had a lot to do with it.
Nonetheless, it still seems clear that Sturridge, Coutinho, and Origi returning to the side will make Liverpool a much better football team. Both strikers scored, Coutinho created two assists, Firmino led the team in key passes. Having Sturridge, Coutinho, and Firmino on the pitch together will not only make Liverpool more potent, but also help to cover up some of the deficiencies in defense. I'm not comparing Liverpool's current side, or even Liverpool's potential, to 2013-14, but 2013-14 proved that a good attack can make up for defensive frailties and mistakes.
Liverpool are yet to lose when Daniel Sturridge starts this season (five matches, with three wins and two draws), and have lost just three of the 17 matches he's started over the last two seasons: at Manchester City, at Besiktas (in extra time), and v Manchester United last season. In total, Liverpool's record with him starting since 2014-15 is 11W-3D-3L. Six of those were cup ties, and I'm well aware you don't get points in cup ties, but that's an average of 2.12 points-per-game. That's an awful lot better than Liverpool's record without him.
As we're all well aware, Liverpool have found ways to fail against really really bad football teams before. Improvement is still improvement, and you can only beat what's in front of you. Liverpool haven't done that enough this season. And Liverpool certainly did yesterday.
14 February 2016
Liverpool 6-0 Aston Villa
Goals:
Sturridge 16'
Milner 25'
Can 58'
Origi 63'
Clyne 65'
Toure 71'
Who would have guessed that having both Sturridge and Coutinho in Liverpool's starting XI would improve Liverpool's goal-scoring?
Also, Aston Villa are really bad.
It was a lot like the last time that Liverpool scored six goals. Which, incidentally, was also the last time that Daniel Sturridge started. A couple of early goals, with Sturridge playing a crucial part, then an excessive mauling as the opposition fell apart, repeatedly picked apart on counter-attacks.
Liverpool weren't even that good, at least in the first half, but Liverpool were clinical. That's been the difference all season long, why we've seen 4-1 City and 6-1 Southampton, but also 0-2 Newcastle and 0-1 United and and...
Daniel Sturridge has a lot to do with that. But so did Philippe Coutinho. His perfect cross assist for Sturridge's headed opener – which looked an awful lot like Milner's cross to Firmino for Liverpool's first against Sunderland. He won the the free kick for Liverpool's second, one of those dangerous positions where if it's on goal, it's often in, even if no one touches it. Which is exactly what happened when Milner stepped up. And then another assist, a divine throughball to Origi, during the second half demolition.
You've got to have someone who can play the damned piano. Ideally, more than one person. And Coutinho with attackers to pass to – you know, like Daniel Sturridge, or even Divock Origi – is much much better than Coutinho attempting to score unlikely goals from any and all angles from Benteke's layoffs.
So while Liverpool weren't any great shakes in the first half – at least, like we've seen before, Liverpool were unable to convert possession into lots of chances – Liverpool took the chances they had. That Sturridge seized Liverpool's first chance is no small matter; confidence is intangible and often inexplicable, but having Sturridge score early clearly boosted the side. And while last week demonstrated that 2-0 can be a dangerous lead, even against horrific opposition who'd done nothing in the opposition half, Liverpool made the match absolutely certain early in the second half.
We saw goals from two Liverpool strikers: Sturridge's opener and Origi for the fourth. We saw a goal from a wonderful through-ball and when one-on-one with the keeper: Again, Origi. We saw set play goals: Milner's direct free kick and Kolo's (KOLO'S!!!) header from Henderson's corner. We saw goals from crosses: Sturridge's opener and Kolo's header. We saw goals from pressing: Can's game-killing third. We saw goals from counter-attacks: Can, Origi, and Clyne. We saw goals from outside the box: Can, Origi, and Milner.
We saw Liverpool take just 11 shots, but nine of those 11 shots were on-target, and six ended in goals. We saw Liverpool create three clear-cut chances for the first time since beating City 4-1 in November, and Liverpool scored all three, the first time this season that Liverpool have scored three clear-cut chances in the league.
We saw Aston Villa take just six shots – half of them after Liverpool already had a six-goal lead – with only one on-target. We saw Villa offer absolutely nothing, partly because Villa don't have much to offer, but also because Liverpool didn't allow them opportunities to offer anything. Even when Villa had too much first-half possession in Liverpool's half, they couldn't do much with it.
Today truly couldn't have gone any better.
And yes, Aston Villa, now assuredly relegated, had more than a bit to do with today's successes. Still, Villa had been "in-form" coming into today, at least for Villa, with two wins and two draws in the last five matches, a vastly better short-term record than Liverpool's.
Liverpool owed Aston Villa that. Liverpool have been frustrated by almost-as-bad Villa sides in the past. Liverpool have dropped points to Villa in each of the last nine seasons; the last time Liverpool did the double over Villa was 2005-06. There's 1-2 in the FA Cup semifinal last year, 2-2 in 2013-14, 1-3 in 2012-13, etc., etc.
No matter the opposition, this was an important win. With Sturridge, Coutinho, and Origi returning (and, of course, if they can stay fit), this can be a form-changing win, especially as Liverpool's fixture list starts to lighten. But Liverpool have been ruthless before, and Liverpool have regressed before. 6-1 over Southampton was followed by 0-2 Newcastle and 0-0 Sion; 5-4 over Norwich was followed by 0-1 Stoke, 0-0 West Ham, and 0-2 Leicester.
This is just a start, and Liverpool still need to build on this. Liverpool need to ensure this isn't another one-off false dawn. But, at the very least, they've again shown what they're capable of doing.
Sturridge 16'
Milner 25'
Can 58'
Origi 63'
Clyne 65'
Toure 71'
Who would have guessed that having both Sturridge and Coutinho in Liverpool's starting XI would improve Liverpool's goal-scoring?
Also, Aston Villa are really bad.
It was a lot like the last time that Liverpool scored six goals. Which, incidentally, was also the last time that Daniel Sturridge started. A couple of early goals, with Sturridge playing a crucial part, then an excessive mauling as the opposition fell apart, repeatedly picked apart on counter-attacks.
Liverpool weren't even that good, at least in the first half, but Liverpool were clinical. That's been the difference all season long, why we've seen 4-1 City and 6-1 Southampton, but also 0-2 Newcastle and 0-1 United and and...
Daniel Sturridge has a lot to do with that. But so did Philippe Coutinho. His perfect cross assist for Sturridge's headed opener – which looked an awful lot like Milner's cross to Firmino for Liverpool's first against Sunderland. He won the the free kick for Liverpool's second, one of those dangerous positions where if it's on goal, it's often in, even if no one touches it. Which is exactly what happened when Milner stepped up. And then another assist, a divine throughball to Origi, during the second half demolition.
You've got to have someone who can play the damned piano. Ideally, more than one person. And Coutinho with attackers to pass to – you know, like Daniel Sturridge, or even Divock Origi – is much much better than Coutinho attempting to score unlikely goals from any and all angles from Benteke's layoffs.
So while Liverpool weren't any great shakes in the first half – at least, like we've seen before, Liverpool were unable to convert possession into lots of chances – Liverpool took the chances they had. That Sturridge seized Liverpool's first chance is no small matter; confidence is intangible and often inexplicable, but having Sturridge score early clearly boosted the side. And while last week demonstrated that 2-0 can be a dangerous lead, even against horrific opposition who'd done nothing in the opposition half, Liverpool made the match absolutely certain early in the second half.
We saw goals from two Liverpool strikers: Sturridge's opener and Origi for the fourth. We saw a goal from a wonderful through-ball and when one-on-one with the keeper: Again, Origi. We saw set play goals: Milner's direct free kick and Kolo's (KOLO'S!!!) header from Henderson's corner. We saw goals from crosses: Sturridge's opener and Kolo's header. We saw goals from pressing: Can's game-killing third. We saw goals from counter-attacks: Can, Origi, and Clyne. We saw goals from outside the box: Can, Origi, and Milner.
We saw Liverpool take just 11 shots, but nine of those 11 shots were on-target, and six ended in goals. We saw Liverpool create three clear-cut chances for the first time since beating City 4-1 in November, and Liverpool scored all three, the first time this season that Liverpool have scored three clear-cut chances in the league.
We saw Aston Villa take just six shots – half of them after Liverpool already had a six-goal lead – with only one on-target. We saw Villa offer absolutely nothing, partly because Villa don't have much to offer, but also because Liverpool didn't allow them opportunities to offer anything. Even when Villa had too much first-half possession in Liverpool's half, they couldn't do much with it.
Today truly couldn't have gone any better.
And yes, Aston Villa, now assuredly relegated, had more than a bit to do with today's successes. Still, Villa had been "in-form" coming into today, at least for Villa, with two wins and two draws in the last five matches, a vastly better short-term record than Liverpool's.
Liverpool owed Aston Villa that. Liverpool have been frustrated by almost-as-bad Villa sides in the past. Liverpool have dropped points to Villa in each of the last nine seasons; the last time Liverpool did the double over Villa was 2005-06. There's 1-2 in the FA Cup semifinal last year, 2-2 in 2013-14, 1-3 in 2012-13, etc., etc.
No matter the opposition, this was an important win. With Sturridge, Coutinho, and Origi returning (and, of course, if they can stay fit), this can be a form-changing win, especially as Liverpool's fixture list starts to lighten. But Liverpool have been ruthless before, and Liverpool have regressed before. 6-1 over Southampton was followed by 0-2 Newcastle and 0-0 Sion; 5-4 over Norwich was followed by 0-1 Stoke, 0-0 West Ham, and 0-2 Leicester.
This is just a start, and Liverpool still need to build on this. Liverpool need to ensure this isn't another one-off false dawn. But, at the very least, they've again shown what they're capable of doing.
13 February 2016
Liverpool at Aston Villa 02.14.16
9:05am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports
Last four head-to-head:
3-2 Liverpool (h) 09.26.15
1-2 Villa (n; FA Cup) 04.19.15
2-0 Liverpool (a) 01.17.15
0-1 Villa (h) 09.13.14
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-2 West Ham aet (a); 2-2 Sunderland (h); 0-2 Leicester (a)
Villa: 2-0 Norwich (h); 0-2 West Ham (a); 0-4 City (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke, Firmino 6; Coutinho 5; Milner 3; Henderson, Ings, Lallana, Milner, Sturridge 2; Allen, Origi, Skrtel 1
Villa: Ayew 5; Gestede 4; Carles Gil, Lescott, Sinclair 2; Agbonlahor, Grealish, Richards 1
Referee: Neil Swarbrick
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Toure Sakho Moreno
Henderson Can Milner
Lallana Firmino Coutinho
Whoa. Liverpool are surprisingly close to fielding an honest-to-goodness first choice XI.
Lovren and Allen have short-term injuries to go with the well-remembered long-term: Ings, Gomez. Skrtel's just back in training, probably not ready to start until Thursday. Coutinho, Sturridge, and Origi are still a bit away from full match fitness.
But we're close. Closer than we've been since Klopp became manager.
That Sturridge starts, after a two-goal performance in the reverse fixture, isn't entirely out of the question, but it's easier to predict he'll be protected after playing for an hour on Tuesday given all that's come before. Ideally available off the bench, but otherwise saved for Augsburg on Thursday, isn't the worst situation.
Which seems to set up for the above 4-3-3: Henderson, Can, Milner in midfield; Lallana, Coutinho, Firmino in attack. Either Toure or Caulker will partner Sakho, along with the usual suspects at full-back. The speedy, clever triumvirate which – Sturridge aside – has been Liverpool's best attack, Henderson and Milner as runners from midfield (with Milner in his "better" position), and Can at the base. Liverpool will have lots of possession, and this front six gives Liverpool players who can carve through a packed defense, runners from midfield, crosses from full-back (albeit only to Firmino), players who can score from distance. In theory, Liverpool can play long, play close, play wide. Liverpool would have multiple options in attack.
If Coutinho (as well as Origi and Sturridge) isn't fit enough to start, it'll probably be Henderson, Can; Ibe, Lallana, Milner; Firmino. Which isn't ideal, but should still be strong enough at the league's worst team. Even if Liverpool have been failing to meet expectations in attack all season long.
Of course, there's still the elephant in the room. I doubt any outfield player who went for 120 minutes on Tuesday will start tomorrow, but Benteke again merits special mention. At least Benteke got into position to miss five or six good chances against West Ham? Still, he's clearly low on self-belief; it's been 668 minutes since he last scored. Normally, I'm all for playing players against their former club, but it's probably a recipe for disaster given Benteke's form and confidence.
As for Aston Villa. They've been better lately, but "better" is very much a relative term. Still 20th, seven points behind nineteenth and eight points from safety, but with two wins (and two draws) from the last five league matches, after going winless in the previous 19, their last (and only) league victory in 2015 this season coming on opening day.
That's more points from their last five games than Liverpool have taken.
With Jordan Ayew still suspended after a red card against West Ham, Villa's XI should look a lot like last week's. Bunn; Richards, Okore, Lescott, Cissokho; Bacuna, Gana, Westwood, Veretout; Carles Gil; Agbonalor. Grealish, Kozak, Sanchez, Hutton, Traore, and Amavi are injured; Gestede's doubtful. Agbonlahor has punished Liverpool multiple times – he absolutely loves playing against Liverpool – but I'd still rather him than Gestede, who absolutely trucked Liverpool in the reverse fixture, scoring both of Villa's goals (unsurprisingly, from crosses) and too close to a third on a couple of other occasions. Only the brilliance of Daniel Sturridge spared Liverpool's blushes. Liverpool, you may remember, remain fairly bad when defending crosses.
Villa will most likely play like a lot of opponents have played – and succeeded – against Liverpool this season. Sit deep, clog their defensive half, soak up pressure, look to counter attack. Take Villa's win over Norwich last Saturday as an example: Norwich were better for longer stretches – more possession, more shots, more shots on-target, a ton of corners – but conceded from a set play, then from a goalkeeper mistake. Conceded from the first shot on-target, conceded from an own goal. Two Villa shots on-target, two Villa goals. Liverpool are more than capable of doing similar.
So, as usual, the match will be decided by what Liverpool does. Whether Liverpool put their inevitable possession to good use, whether Liverpool can create chances and take said chances, whether Liverpool can stay secure and smart at the back. Whether we get Good Liverpool or Bad Liverpool.
That Liverpool's key attackers are finally close to fitness at least gives us more hope of seeing Good Liverpool.
Last four head-to-head:
3-2 Liverpool (h) 09.26.15
1-2 Villa (n; FA Cup) 04.19.15
2-0 Liverpool (a) 01.17.15
0-1 Villa (h) 09.13.14
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-2 West Ham aet (a); 2-2 Sunderland (h); 0-2 Leicester (a)
Villa: 2-0 Norwich (h); 0-2 West Ham (a); 0-4 City (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke, Firmino 6; Coutinho 5; Milner 3; Henderson, Ings, Lallana, Milner, Sturridge 2; Allen, Origi, Skrtel 1
Villa: Ayew 5; Gestede 4; Carles Gil, Lescott, Sinclair 2; Agbonlahor, Grealish, Richards 1
Referee: Neil Swarbrick
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Toure Sakho Moreno
Henderson Can Milner
Lallana Firmino Coutinho
Whoa. Liverpool are surprisingly close to fielding an honest-to-goodness first choice XI.
Lovren and Allen have short-term injuries to go with the well-remembered long-term: Ings, Gomez. Skrtel's just back in training, probably not ready to start until Thursday. Coutinho, Sturridge, and Origi are still a bit away from full match fitness.
But we're close. Closer than we've been since Klopp became manager.
That Sturridge starts, after a two-goal performance in the reverse fixture, isn't entirely out of the question, but it's easier to predict he'll be protected after playing for an hour on Tuesday given all that's come before. Ideally available off the bench, but otherwise saved for Augsburg on Thursday, isn't the worst situation.
Which seems to set up for the above 4-3-3: Henderson, Can, Milner in midfield; Lallana, Coutinho, Firmino in attack. Either Toure or Caulker will partner Sakho, along with the usual suspects at full-back. The speedy, clever triumvirate which – Sturridge aside – has been Liverpool's best attack, Henderson and Milner as runners from midfield (with Milner in his "better" position), and Can at the base. Liverpool will have lots of possession, and this front six gives Liverpool players who can carve through a packed defense, runners from midfield, crosses from full-back (albeit only to Firmino), players who can score from distance. In theory, Liverpool can play long, play close, play wide. Liverpool would have multiple options in attack.
If Coutinho (as well as Origi and Sturridge) isn't fit enough to start, it'll probably be Henderson, Can; Ibe, Lallana, Milner; Firmino. Which isn't ideal, but should still be strong enough at the league's worst team. Even if Liverpool have been failing to meet expectations in attack all season long.
Of course, there's still the elephant in the room. I doubt any outfield player who went for 120 minutes on Tuesday will start tomorrow, but Benteke again merits special mention. At least Benteke got into position to miss five or six good chances against West Ham? Still, he's clearly low on self-belief; it's been 668 minutes since he last scored. Normally, I'm all for playing players against their former club, but it's probably a recipe for disaster given Benteke's form and confidence.
As for Aston Villa. They've been better lately, but "better" is very much a relative term. Still 20th, seven points behind nineteenth and eight points from safety, but with two wins (and two draws) from the last five league matches, after going winless in the previous 19, their last (and only) league victory in 2015 this season coming on opening day.
That's more points from their last five games than Liverpool have taken.
With Jordan Ayew still suspended after a red card against West Ham, Villa's XI should look a lot like last week's. Bunn; Richards, Okore, Lescott, Cissokho; Bacuna, Gana, Westwood, Veretout; Carles Gil; Agbonalor. Grealish, Kozak, Sanchez, Hutton, Traore, and Amavi are injured; Gestede's doubtful. Agbonlahor has punished Liverpool multiple times – he absolutely loves playing against Liverpool – but I'd still rather him than Gestede, who absolutely trucked Liverpool in the reverse fixture, scoring both of Villa's goals (unsurprisingly, from crosses) and too close to a third on a couple of other occasions. Only the brilliance of Daniel Sturridge spared Liverpool's blushes. Liverpool, you may remember, remain fairly bad when defending crosses.
Villa will most likely play like a lot of opponents have played – and succeeded – against Liverpool this season. Sit deep, clog their defensive half, soak up pressure, look to counter attack. Take Villa's win over Norwich last Saturday as an example: Norwich were better for longer stretches – more possession, more shots, more shots on-target, a ton of corners – but conceded from a set play, then from a goalkeeper mistake. Conceded from the first shot on-target, conceded from an own goal. Two Villa shots on-target, two Villa goals. Liverpool are more than capable of doing similar.
So, as usual, the match will be decided by what Liverpool does. Whether Liverpool put their inevitable possession to good use, whether Liverpool can create chances and take said chances, whether Liverpool can stay secure and smart at the back. Whether we get Good Liverpool or Bad Liverpool.
That Liverpool's key attackers are finally close to fitness at least gives us more hope of seeing Good Liverpool.
09 February 2016
Liverpool 1-2 West Ham aet
Goals:
Antonio 45'
Coutinho 48'
Ogbonna 120+1'
Liverpool lost on a last-minute extra-time goal, Liverpool displayed a handful of the same problems – and those problems are the reason that Liverpool lost – and yet there might still be more positives than negatives. Which is weird.
We know how we got here. Liverpool can't finish chances – even when they create some decent ones – and Liverpool struggle to defend crosses: one from open play, one from a set play, both to the back post. All four of West Ham's goals against Liverpool at Upton Park this season came from crosses to the back post. It's not a coincidence.
But a very young Liverpool side (again) mostly outplayed a much more experienced West Ham side, this time on their own ground. Liverpool started with a midfield of Kevin Stewart, Pedro Chirivella, and Joao Teixeira – a combined 12 appearances prior to today; 22, 18, and 23 years old respectively – and more than matched West Ham's triumvirate of Mark Noble, Cheick Kouyate, and Pedro Obiang. Meanwhile, Liverpool's center-backs were Lucas and Ilori, and both did surprisingly well, Lucas' concession of the free kick for West Ham's winner not withstanding. The returning Coutinho, Sturridge, and Origi all played an hour – the first scoring Liverpool's lone goal from a clever free kick, with Sturridge also coming close on a couple of opportunities.
But if you miss multiple chances and fail to fix defensive deficiencies, you're probably going to lose most matches. As Liverpool is, by now, well aware.
• 15' - Benteke at the back post from a corner, saved
• 29' - Teixeira from 12 yards out, just wide
• 34' - Coutinho from close range, off the post
• 34' - Stewart's rebound from Coutinho's shot, blocked
• 35' - Benteke at the back post from a corner, again, saved
• 56' - Benteke, eight yards out, blocked
• 80' - Benteke's clever free kick, saved
• 90' - Ibe vicious left-footer from distance, saved
• 99' - Benteke from the top of the box, wide
• 99' - Benteke one-on-one with Randolph, saved
• 108' - Sturridge, just outside the box, just over the bar
• 109' - Origi, from a tight left-footed angle, wide of the near post
It's not as if West Ham were without chances of their own. In the first half, O'Brien hit the post, then Payet's free kick was saved onto the post before Mignolet parried Antonio's rebound. In the second half, Mignolet tipped over a no-angle outside-of-the boot shot from Antonio and Valencia mis-hit a header from Payet's wonderful cross, while Ilori could have also been called for a penalty on Valencia.
Liverpool had more and better chances, were dominant for longer spells. But Liverpool's couldn't take advantage. And then Ogbonna struck in added time of extra-time: a perfect free kick, out-jumping Stewart and Flanagan, with the added bonus that it was a Charmin-soft free kick unnecessarily conceded by Lucas but also unnecessarily called.
Over the two matches, Liverpool outshot West Ham 38 to 26, 12 on-target to eight. Benteke had 13 of those shots – more than a third – with six on-target, five off-target, and two blocked. At least two were clear-cut chances. None led to a goal. He remains without a goal in 2016, having played 668 minutes over 11 and a half matches, six as a starter and six as a substitute. That's not good. With Sturridge and Origi returning, and if they stay fit (*knocks on every piece of wood in the house*), it's hard to see him staying in the side.
But, again, despite the disappointment as well as my usual proclivity for pessimism, I can't help but focus on the few positives. The above list of shots were still more and better chances than the side's created in recent matches, in most matches, even if only one led to a goal: Coutinho's clever free kick, hit under West Ham's jumping wall. The players who returned today will make a massive difference to the side. The kids are again alright: Stewart, Chirivella, and Teixeira most notably, but Ilori to a lesser extent, and even Brad Smith, despite having what seemed his worst match as a starter. I'd hope that Liverpool give them all more opportunities weeks to come, even if those opportunities will be harder to come by with Liverpool exiting this competition.
It'd have been nice to see Liverpool advance in another cup competition, but it's not as if they'll really rue missing yet another match this month. The benefit of an FA Cup run pretty much only benefited the above players who rarely play otherwise.
Today certainly wasn't perfect. Today again featured problems we've seen in the past. But it also wasn't last Saturday's late capitulation. It wasn't the attacking ineptitude we saw at Leicester or against Stoke in the second leg League Cup semifinal or any number of other matches. It wasn't the complete and utter failure at West Ham in the league, or Watford, or Newcastle. And it happened with an almost completely different XI than we usually see in league matches.
Maybe it's a sign of just how much the season's beaten me down, but I still can't help be grateful that at least we had positives and at least we can see promise, despite the result.
Antonio 45'
Coutinho 48'
Ogbonna 120+1'
Liverpool lost on a last-minute extra-time goal, Liverpool displayed a handful of the same problems – and those problems are the reason that Liverpool lost – and yet there might still be more positives than negatives. Which is weird.
We know how we got here. Liverpool can't finish chances – even when they create some decent ones – and Liverpool struggle to defend crosses: one from open play, one from a set play, both to the back post. All four of West Ham's goals against Liverpool at Upton Park this season came from crosses to the back post. It's not a coincidence.
But a very young Liverpool side (again) mostly outplayed a much more experienced West Ham side, this time on their own ground. Liverpool started with a midfield of Kevin Stewart, Pedro Chirivella, and Joao Teixeira – a combined 12 appearances prior to today; 22, 18, and 23 years old respectively – and more than matched West Ham's triumvirate of Mark Noble, Cheick Kouyate, and Pedro Obiang. Meanwhile, Liverpool's center-backs were Lucas and Ilori, and both did surprisingly well, Lucas' concession of the free kick for West Ham's winner not withstanding. The returning Coutinho, Sturridge, and Origi all played an hour – the first scoring Liverpool's lone goal from a clever free kick, with Sturridge also coming close on a couple of opportunities.
But if you miss multiple chances and fail to fix defensive deficiencies, you're probably going to lose most matches. As Liverpool is, by now, well aware.
• 15' - Benteke at the back post from a corner, saved
• 29' - Teixeira from 12 yards out, just wide
• 34' - Coutinho from close range, off the post
• 34' - Stewart's rebound from Coutinho's shot, blocked
• 35' - Benteke at the back post from a corner, again, saved
• 56' - Benteke, eight yards out, blocked
• 80' - Benteke's clever free kick, saved
• 90' - Ibe vicious left-footer from distance, saved
• 99' - Benteke from the top of the box, wide
• 99' - Benteke one-on-one with Randolph, saved
• 108' - Sturridge, just outside the box, just over the bar
• 109' - Origi, from a tight left-footed angle, wide of the near post
It's not as if West Ham were without chances of their own. In the first half, O'Brien hit the post, then Payet's free kick was saved onto the post before Mignolet parried Antonio's rebound. In the second half, Mignolet tipped over a no-angle outside-of-the boot shot from Antonio and Valencia mis-hit a header from Payet's wonderful cross, while Ilori could have also been called for a penalty on Valencia.
Liverpool had more and better chances, were dominant for longer spells. But Liverpool's couldn't take advantage. And then Ogbonna struck in added time of extra-time: a perfect free kick, out-jumping Stewart and Flanagan, with the added bonus that it was a Charmin-soft free kick unnecessarily conceded by Lucas but also unnecessarily called.
Over the two matches, Liverpool outshot West Ham 38 to 26, 12 on-target to eight. Benteke had 13 of those shots – more than a third – with six on-target, five off-target, and two blocked. At least two were clear-cut chances. None led to a goal. He remains without a goal in 2016, having played 668 minutes over 11 and a half matches, six as a starter and six as a substitute. That's not good. With Sturridge and Origi returning, and if they stay fit (*knocks on every piece of wood in the house*), it's hard to see him staying in the side.
But, again, despite the disappointment as well as my usual proclivity for pessimism, I can't help but focus on the few positives. The above list of shots were still more and better chances than the side's created in recent matches, in most matches, even if only one led to a goal: Coutinho's clever free kick, hit under West Ham's jumping wall. The players who returned today will make a massive difference to the side. The kids are again alright: Stewart, Chirivella, and Teixeira most notably, but Ilori to a lesser extent, and even Brad Smith, despite having what seemed his worst match as a starter. I'd hope that Liverpool give them all more opportunities weeks to come, even if those opportunities will be harder to come by with Liverpool exiting this competition.
It'd have been nice to see Liverpool advance in another cup competition, but it's not as if they'll really rue missing yet another match this month. The benefit of an FA Cup run pretty much only benefited the above players who rarely play otherwise.
Today certainly wasn't perfect. Today again featured problems we've seen in the past. But it also wasn't last Saturday's late capitulation. It wasn't the attacking ineptitude we saw at Leicester or against Stoke in the second leg League Cup semifinal or any number of other matches. It wasn't the complete and utter failure at West Ham in the league, or Watford, or Newcastle. And it happened with an almost completely different XI than we usually see in league matches.
Maybe it's a sign of just how much the season's beaten me down, but I still can't help be grateful that at least we had positives and at least we can see promise, despite the result.
08 February 2016
Liverpool at West Ham 02.09.16
2:45pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1
Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (h; FA Cup) 01.30.16
0-2 West Ham (a) 01.02.16
0-3 West Ham (h) 08.29.15
2-0 Liverpool (h) 01.31.15
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Sunderland (h); 0-2 Leicester (a); 0-0 West Ham (h)
West Ham: 0-1 Southampton (a); 2-0 Villa (h); 0-0 Liverpool (a)
Previous Rounds:
Liverpool: 0-0 West Ham (h); 3-0 Exeter (h), 2-2 Exeter (a)
West Ham: 0-0 Liverpool (a); 1-0 Wolves (h)
Goalscorers (FA):
Liverpool: Allen, Ojo, Sinclair, Smith, Teixeira 1
West Ham: Jelavic 1
Referee: Roger East
Guess at a line-up:
Ward
Flanagan Caulker Sakho Smith
Ibe Lucas Can Teixeira
Benteke Sturridge
*Looks at league table*
Yep, cups are all that really matter now. But this cup still matters slightly less than the other two cups, and Liverpool are still going to make a handful of changes. The side's still going to look more like the last meeting than the usual league XI.
At least three of the players who started ten days ago won't be available: Lovren and Allen after minor injuries incurred against Sunderland, and Cameron Brannagan, who's ill.
Meanwhile, Sturridge, Coutinho, and Origi are finally available, but all three won't start. Not after all three have been out for weeks, not with the possibility of extra time. I'm assuming Sturridge is the closest, solely because Sturridge was the only one included on the bench on Saturday.
Maybe none start, with one or two used off the bench if needed. Maybe I just want to see Sturridge back, and if he can play with Benteke. Liverpool don't play 4-4-2 often, but with Allen and Brannagan out, and Henderson in need of game management, Liverpool have few options in midfield: Lucas, Can, Milner, and Kevin Stewart. I doubt Lucas and Stewart – both very much defensively inclined and limited going forward – can play together. Milner's spent more time in attack lately, albeit out of necessity rather than performing better in that position. Neither Can nor Milner have even been included in the squad for a FA Cup match this season.
But, sure, 4-1-2-3 with Lucas or Stewart as the holder; two from Lucas, Can, Milner, Teixeira, and Coutinho ahead of him; two from Ibe, Teixeira, Ojo, Lallana, and Coutinho on the flanks; and Benteke up front is definitely a possibility. Or, in what I guess is the weakest possibility, 4-2-3-1 with, say, Lucas and Stewart behind Ibe, Teixeira, and Ojo, and Benteke up front. Fine. I just really want to see Sturridge back. 4-4-2 seems the best way to achieve that, even if it means conceding ground and possession against what'll likely be a three-man West Ham midfield.
Defense is a bit more straight-forward: Flanagan and Smith at full-back, Caulker at center-back, with either Toure or Sakho partnering him – whoever looks more capable of playing twice in four days. Also, play Danny Ward. Please play Danny Ward.
Meanwhile, West Ham are pretty much in the same position they were in 10 days ago. Four points and three places ahead of Liverpool in the table, and reasonably competent in the two matches in between: a routine 2-0 win over 10-man Villa and a battling, narrow 0-1 loss when unable to break through 10 men at Southampton. They're still missing a few key players – Tomkins, Kouyate, Lanzini, and Sakho are injured; Sam Byram's cup-tied – but nowhere near as many as Liverpool.
And they'll probably make a couple of changes as well, but it'll be still be a reasonably strong side. Let's guess Randolph for Adrian in goal; Ogbonna for either Collins or Reid; Obiang in midfield; and Carroll for Valencia. Something like Randolph; O'Brien, Reid, Ogbonna, Cresswell; Obiang, Song, Noble; Moses, Carroll, Payet. Which is very similar to both the side that stifled Liverpool at Anfield in the previous meeting, and that whomped Liverpool 0-2 the last time Liverpool traveled to Upton Park. West Ham's ability to sit deep and smother and counter, Payet's ability to create, Carroll's ability on crosses. It's been a recipe for disaster far too often in recent meetings.
We've reached the point where these matches stop being more trouble than they're worth, partly because of the stage of the competition and partly because of Liverpool's woeful league form. They're opportunities rather than hindrances. An opportunity to continue Liverpool's decent record in cup competition. An opportunity for a few players who otherwise wouldn't start. An opportunity to finally get one over on a West Ham side that's had Liverpool's number far too often of late. An opportunity to put the last ten minutes against Sunderland firmly in the past.
Take advantage of the opportunity.
Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (h; FA Cup) 01.30.16
0-2 West Ham (a) 01.02.16
0-3 West Ham (h) 08.29.15
2-0 Liverpool (h) 01.31.15
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Sunderland (h); 0-2 Leicester (a); 0-0 West Ham (h)
West Ham: 0-1 Southampton (a); 2-0 Villa (h); 0-0 Liverpool (a)
Previous Rounds:
Liverpool: 0-0 West Ham (h); 3-0 Exeter (h), 2-2 Exeter (a)
West Ham: 0-0 Liverpool (a); 1-0 Wolves (h)
Goalscorers (FA):
Liverpool: Allen, Ojo, Sinclair, Smith, Teixeira 1
West Ham: Jelavic 1
Referee: Roger East
Guess at a line-up:
Ward
Flanagan Caulker Sakho Smith
Ibe Lucas Can Teixeira
Benteke Sturridge
*Looks at league table*
Yep, cups are all that really matter now. But this cup still matters slightly less than the other two cups, and Liverpool are still going to make a handful of changes. The side's still going to look more like the last meeting than the usual league XI.
At least three of the players who started ten days ago won't be available: Lovren and Allen after minor injuries incurred against Sunderland, and Cameron Brannagan, who's ill.
Meanwhile, Sturridge, Coutinho, and Origi are finally available, but all three won't start. Not after all three have been out for weeks, not with the possibility of extra time. I'm assuming Sturridge is the closest, solely because Sturridge was the only one included on the bench on Saturday.
Maybe none start, with one or two used off the bench if needed. Maybe I just want to see Sturridge back, and if he can play with Benteke. Liverpool don't play 4-4-2 often, but with Allen and Brannagan out, and Henderson in need of game management, Liverpool have few options in midfield: Lucas, Can, Milner, and Kevin Stewart. I doubt Lucas and Stewart – both very much defensively inclined and limited going forward – can play together. Milner's spent more time in attack lately, albeit out of necessity rather than performing better in that position. Neither Can nor Milner have even been included in the squad for a FA Cup match this season.
But, sure, 4-1-2-3 with Lucas or Stewart as the holder; two from Lucas, Can, Milner, Teixeira, and Coutinho ahead of him; two from Ibe, Teixeira, Ojo, Lallana, and Coutinho on the flanks; and Benteke up front is definitely a possibility. Or, in what I guess is the weakest possibility, 4-2-3-1 with, say, Lucas and Stewart behind Ibe, Teixeira, and Ojo, and Benteke up front. Fine. I just really want to see Sturridge back. 4-4-2 seems the best way to achieve that, even if it means conceding ground and possession against what'll likely be a three-man West Ham midfield.
Defense is a bit more straight-forward: Flanagan and Smith at full-back, Caulker at center-back, with either Toure or Sakho partnering him – whoever looks more capable of playing twice in four days. Also, play Danny Ward. Please play Danny Ward.
Meanwhile, West Ham are pretty much in the same position they were in 10 days ago. Four points and three places ahead of Liverpool in the table, and reasonably competent in the two matches in between: a routine 2-0 win over 10-man Villa and a battling, narrow 0-1 loss when unable to break through 10 men at Southampton. They're still missing a few key players – Tomkins, Kouyate, Lanzini, and Sakho are injured; Sam Byram's cup-tied – but nowhere near as many as Liverpool.
And they'll probably make a couple of changes as well, but it'll be still be a reasonably strong side. Let's guess Randolph for Adrian in goal; Ogbonna for either Collins or Reid; Obiang in midfield; and Carroll for Valencia. Something like Randolph; O'Brien, Reid, Ogbonna, Cresswell; Obiang, Song, Noble; Moses, Carroll, Payet. Which is very similar to both the side that stifled Liverpool at Anfield in the previous meeting, and that whomped Liverpool 0-2 the last time Liverpool traveled to Upton Park. West Ham's ability to sit deep and smother and counter, Payet's ability to create, Carroll's ability on crosses. It's been a recipe for disaster far too often in recent meetings.
We've reached the point where these matches stop being more trouble than they're worth, partly because of the stage of the competition and partly because of Liverpool's woeful league form. They're opportunities rather than hindrances. An opportunity to continue Liverpool's decent record in cup competition. An opportunity for a few players who otherwise wouldn't start. An opportunity to finally get one over on a West Ham side that's had Liverpool's number far too often of late. An opportunity to put the last ten minutes against Sunderland firmly in the past.
Take advantage of the opportunity.
Visualized: Liverpool 2-2 Sunderland
Previous Match Infographics: Leicester (a) Stoke [League Cup] (h), Norwich (a), Manchester Utd (h), Arsenal (h), Stoke [League Cup] (a), West Ham (a), Sunderland (a), Leicester (h), Watford (a), West Brom (h), Sion (a), Newcastle (a), Swansea (h), Bordeaux (h), City (a), Crystal Palace (h), Rubin Kazan (a), Chelsea (a), Southampton (h), Rubin Kazan (h), Tottenham (a), Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
Ten bad minutes can erase the 20 good ones which came before. As well as the 60 indifferent minutes that came before that.
Another late goal conceded? Yep. Two, in fact – the tenth and eleventh goals that Liverpool have conceded after the 75th minute this season in all competitions (ten in the league, one in the Europa League). Liverpool have won just one of the matches where they've conceded in the last 15 matches: the 5-4 victory at Norwich. In total, Liverpool's record when conceding in the last 15 minutes is 1W-3D-6L.
Another set play goal conceded? Yep. The 14th set play goal that Liverpool have conceded this season, from 45 goals conceded in total. That's nearly a third of Liverpool's goals conceded. To be fair, this was the first direct free kick that Liverpool have conceded from this season, but dead ball situations are dead ball situations, and Liverpool remain bad at them. Those 14 goals have come in 12 matches (two set play goals for both West Brom and Norwich). In total, Liverpool's record in those 12 matches is 2W-6D-4L.
Another goal conceded due to a goalkeeper error? Yep. It's the sixth time that's happened; those goals were 2-1 Sunderland, 1-2 Exeter, 0-1 Watford, 1-1 West Brom, 0-1 Bordeaux, and 1-1 Norwich. Which is probably being generous (at the least, Crystal Palace's winner should count as one, and probably some others I've repressed), but those are the Opta-defined goalkeeper errors. Four from Mignolet, two from Bogdan. Six times it's happened, and Liverpool have won just one of those six matches. Liverpool's record in those six matches is 1W-4D-1L.
Liverpool let a lead slip for the eighth time this season, failing to win despite taking the lead: 1-0 against Bordeaux, Norwich, Carlisle, Sion, Everton, Southampton, West Brom, and Arsenal turns into a draw, six of the eight finished 1-1, with a 2-2 and a 3-3 draw as well. Liverpool also went 1-0 up on Norwich, which turned into 1-3, which turned into 5-4.
To be fair, five of those nine matches happened under the previous manager. But this is the first time this season that Liverpool let a two-goal lead slip. Of course, Liverpool have also rarely had a two-goal lead this season: 11 minutes against Villa, eight minutes at Chelsea, 67 minutes at City, 45 minutes at Southampton in the league cup, 16 against Exeter in the FA Cup, and 12 minutes on Saturday. And that's it. 159 minutes, out of 3570 minutes of football in total this season.
When you so rarely out-score the opposition, and every single match seems to be paper-thin, knife-edge narrow, you can't keep doing stupid things in defense.
I've gotten a lot of mileage out of the "Liverpool have conceded from the first shot on-target in 21 of the 26 games where Liverpool have conceded this season" stat. Sure, there's more than a bit of misfortunate in there, but it's also a condemnation of the entire defense, not just Mignolet, and it's still an unfathomable record. Saturday was a helpful example of how pretty much everyone's at fault: the first goal completely on Mignolet's shoulders, the second a comprehensive breakdown where Liverpool gave the ball away from a throw-in, failed to clear, allowed Sunderland to play across the width of the final third, allowed van Aanholt an easy entry pass to Khazri in the box, before Khazri turned Toure and Defoe turned Sakho.
It'd make up for it if Liverpool were doing even close to similar at the other end of the pitch. Unsurprisingly, they aren't. Liverpool have scored in 28 matches this season. They've scored from the first shot on-target in just nine: 5-4 Norwich, 2-2 Exeter, 6-1 Southampton, 2-1 Bordeaux, 4-1 Manchester City, 1-0 Kazan, 1-1 Sion, 3-2 Villa, 1-0 Bournemouth. Seven wins, two draw. Four in the league (all wins), three in the Europa League (two wins, one draw), once in the League Cup (win), once in the FA Cup (draw). That's, uh, somewhat worse than the opposition's record.
Liverpool are averaging 5.31 shots on-target per match in all competitions. Which is okay! They're fourth-best in the league for total shots on-target. On average, in matches where Liverpool have scored, they're scoring with their 2nd or 3rd shot on-target (2.43, if we're going by the exact average). And in total, Liverpool are averaging 3.98 shots on-target per goal. That's less good. Liverpool simply aren't converting enough, not that this is news to anyone. The best attacking performances have few and far between, and otherwise, Liverpool are infinitely frustrating at worst and mediocre more often than not.
Meanwhile, Liverpool's opponents are averaging 2.6 shots on-target per goal. Liverpool's save percentage in all competitions is 61.54%. The opposition's save percentage in all competitions is 74.88%. In the league, it's 58.8% for Liverpool and 73.7% for Liverpool's opponents. And the league average is 69.4%. Conceding twice from just two shots on-target yesterday, Liverpool have now passed Bournemouth for the worst save percentage in the league. Only Tottenham have faced fewer shots on-target than Liverpool this season.
If it's not one end of the pitch, it's the other. And sometimes, it's both. Again.
Are there any bright spots? Well, football folks who know a lot more about this nonsense than I do think there's a fair bit of flukiness involved in Liverpool's woes. That's something.
Otherwise, at least Roberto Firmino's becoming one hell of a player. A goal and an assist on Saturday, involved in seven of Liverpool's last ten league goals (five goals, two assists), involved in pretty much everything good that Liverpool did against Sunderland. He's scored with his left foot, his right foot, and his head; he's scored from crosses, from distance, from pressing opposition defenders into mistakes; he's assisted with layoffs, cutbacks, and crosses.
By my count, Firmino has played as a striker in nine league matches this season: eight as the lone striker, once in a partnership with Origi/Benteke (1-0 at Leicester). In those matches:
He still can go missing in games (0-2 Leicester, 0-3 Watford), his shot accuracy can still improve (five of those nine matches were without a single shot on-target). But he's finally fully adapting to a new team, new league, and new position, and he's done it without a lot of help from his teammates.
It bodes well for the future. Unfortunately, not enough else does.
As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.
Ten bad minutes can erase the 20 good ones which came before. As well as the 60 indifferent minutes that came before that.
Another late goal conceded? Yep. Two, in fact – the tenth and eleventh goals that Liverpool have conceded after the 75th minute this season in all competitions (ten in the league, one in the Europa League). Liverpool have won just one of the matches where they've conceded in the last 15 matches: the 5-4 victory at Norwich. In total, Liverpool's record when conceding in the last 15 minutes is 1W-3D-6L.
Another set play goal conceded? Yep. The 14th set play goal that Liverpool have conceded this season, from 45 goals conceded in total. That's nearly a third of Liverpool's goals conceded. To be fair, this was the first direct free kick that Liverpool have conceded from this season, but dead ball situations are dead ball situations, and Liverpool remain bad at them. Those 14 goals have come in 12 matches (two set play goals for both West Brom and Norwich). In total, Liverpool's record in those 12 matches is 2W-6D-4L.
Another goal conceded due to a goalkeeper error? Yep. It's the sixth time that's happened; those goals were 2-1 Sunderland, 1-2 Exeter, 0-1 Watford, 1-1 West Brom, 0-1 Bordeaux, and 1-1 Norwich. Which is probably being generous (at the least, Crystal Palace's winner should count as one, and probably some others I've repressed), but those are the Opta-defined goalkeeper errors. Four from Mignolet, two from Bogdan. Six times it's happened, and Liverpool have won just one of those six matches. Liverpool's record in those six matches is 1W-4D-1L.
Liverpool let a lead slip for the eighth time this season, failing to win despite taking the lead: 1-0 against Bordeaux, Norwich, Carlisle, Sion, Everton, Southampton, West Brom, and Arsenal turns into a draw, six of the eight finished 1-1, with a 2-2 and a 3-3 draw as well. Liverpool also went 1-0 up on Norwich, which turned into 1-3, which turned into 5-4.
To be fair, five of those nine matches happened under the previous manager. But this is the first time this season that Liverpool let a two-goal lead slip. Of course, Liverpool have also rarely had a two-goal lead this season: 11 minutes against Villa, eight minutes at Chelsea, 67 minutes at City, 45 minutes at Southampton in the league cup, 16 against Exeter in the FA Cup, and 12 minutes on Saturday. And that's it. 159 minutes, out of 3570 minutes of football in total this season.
When you so rarely out-score the opposition, and every single match seems to be paper-thin, knife-edge narrow, you can't keep doing stupid things in defense.
I've gotten a lot of mileage out of the "Liverpool have conceded from the first shot on-target in 21 of the 26 games where Liverpool have conceded this season" stat. Sure, there's more than a bit of misfortunate in there, but it's also a condemnation of the entire defense, not just Mignolet, and it's still an unfathomable record. Saturday was a helpful example of how pretty much everyone's at fault: the first goal completely on Mignolet's shoulders, the second a comprehensive breakdown where Liverpool gave the ball away from a throw-in, failed to clear, allowed Sunderland to play across the width of the final third, allowed van Aanholt an easy entry pass to Khazri in the box, before Khazri turned Toure and Defoe turned Sakho.
It'd make up for it if Liverpool were doing even close to similar at the other end of the pitch. Unsurprisingly, they aren't. Liverpool have scored in 28 matches this season. They've scored from the first shot on-target in just nine: 5-4 Norwich, 2-2 Exeter, 6-1 Southampton, 2-1 Bordeaux, 4-1 Manchester City, 1-0 Kazan, 1-1 Sion, 3-2 Villa, 1-0 Bournemouth. Seven wins, two draw. Four in the league (all wins), three in the Europa League (two wins, one draw), once in the League Cup (win), once in the FA Cup (draw). That's, uh, somewhat worse than the opposition's record.
Liverpool are averaging 5.31 shots on-target per match in all competitions. Which is okay! They're fourth-best in the league for total shots on-target. On average, in matches where Liverpool have scored, they're scoring with their 2nd or 3rd shot on-target (2.43, if we're going by the exact average). And in total, Liverpool are averaging 3.98 shots on-target per goal. That's less good. Liverpool simply aren't converting enough, not that this is news to anyone. The best attacking performances have few and far between, and otherwise, Liverpool are infinitely frustrating at worst and mediocre more often than not.
Meanwhile, Liverpool's opponents are averaging 2.6 shots on-target per goal. Liverpool's save percentage in all competitions is 61.54%. The opposition's save percentage in all competitions is 74.88%. In the league, it's 58.8% for Liverpool and 73.7% for Liverpool's opponents. And the league average is 69.4%. Conceding twice from just two shots on-target yesterday, Liverpool have now passed Bournemouth for the worst save percentage in the league. Only Tottenham have faced fewer shots on-target than Liverpool this season.
If it's not one end of the pitch, it's the other. And sometimes, it's both. Again.
Are there any bright spots? Well, football folks who know a lot more about this nonsense than I do think there's a fair bit of flukiness involved in Liverpool's woes. That's something.
Otherwise, at least Roberto Firmino's becoming one hell of a player. A goal and an assist on Saturday, involved in seven of Liverpool's last ten league goals (five goals, two assists), involved in pretty much everything good that Liverpool did against Sunderland. He's scored with his left foot, his right foot, and his head; he's scored from crosses, from distance, from pressing opposition defenders into mistakes; he's assisted with layoffs, cutbacks, and crosses.
By my count, Firmino has played as a striker in nine league matches this season: eight as the lone striker, once in a partnership with Origi/Benteke (1-0 at Leicester). In those matches:
He still can go missing in games (0-2 Leicester, 0-3 Watford), his shot accuracy can still improve (five of those nine matches were without a single shot on-target). But he's finally fully adapting to a new team, new league, and new position, and he's done it without a lot of help from his teammates.
It bodes well for the future. Unfortunately, not enough else does.
06 February 2016
Liverpool 2-2 Sunderland
Goals:
Firmino 59'
Lallana 70'
Johnson 82'
Defoe 89'
The easy joke is that the Liverpool players joined a large portion of the stadium in walking out after 77 minutes. They aren't – or, at least shouldn't be – related events. Sure, it probably didn't help matters, but if you buy a ticket, you've the right to do whatever you want with it. And you don't get to criticize those in the stadium from the comfort of your couch or the local pub.
The players, however, are paid to play for 90 minutes. And they didn't. That's it. That's the alpha, that's the omega. That's Liverpool.
2-0 in the 70th minute, against a team that hadn't scored against Liverpool since March 2014, should have led to a routine win if the stadium completely emptied. If Liverpool's entire back line spontaneously combusted. Under any circumstances. It took 59 minutes, because Liverpool, but Liverpool finally had control of the situation. Liverpool should have maintained control of the situation. Liverpool didn't.
For 59 minutes, par for the course. Liverpool utterly dominate possession – 81.6% in the first half, the highest percentage I've ever seen – but Liverpool struggle to create chances, struggle to take shots, take said shots in poor positions, and put the majority of said shots off-target. But then, two excellent goals: a wonderful cross from Milner finding Firmino open at the back post (aided by van Aanholt's "marking"), then Firmino pressing Jones into a mistake before running on goal and centering for Lallana's tap-in. The assist made both of those goals, during a three-match spell where Liverpool had failed to create those types of chances. There had been 359 minutes of goalless football from Liverpool between Lallana's winner against Norwich and Firmino's opener, but then, all of a sudden, two in ten minutes.
Hurrah! 2-0 up against second-from-bottom Sunderland, who'd barely attempted to play football, who'd taken just four shots in 80 minutes: all off-target, three of four from outside the box. Fine. Cruise control. We'll spend the final 15 minutes talking about the fans' protest – which, again, isn't something I'd be comfortable doing but is completely understandable and more than within their rights – and leave with three much-needed points.
But, no, because Liverpool. A free kick from nothing, an unnecessary foul by Moreno. A wall that failed to block Johnson's free kick, which somehow snuck under Mignolet's hand. Another set play goal conceded. Another concession from the opposition's first shot on-target, for the 21st time in the 26 matches where Liverpool have conceded. 21 of 26. There aren't even words.
Fine. Shit happens. Very much against the run of play, a perfectly-placed shot, a bit of a fluke both with and without context. Just collect yourselves and see the game out. Just do your damned jobs. Ha. Ha ha ha ha. Because it only got worse. Because, somehow, every single Liverpool player lost their minds. Because Liverpool.
Back to all those Rodgers' performances where Liverpool let a lead slip, all those 1-0 wins which somehow turned into 1-1 draws, a failing we'd thought we'd fixed after those first few Klopp draws. Liverpool couldn't collect, Liverpool couldn't clear. Liverpool players stand off Sunderland's, Sunderland's players allowed time and space to pass in front of Liverpool's box, allowed the opportunity to find a way through for the second. Lucas brought on to add an extra defensive presence does nothing. And with a minute left in normal time, van Aanholt in space passes to Khazri, back to goal, allowed to turn. Khazri passes to Defoe in the box, back to goal, allowed to turn. And Defoe summarily and simply turns around Sakho, hammering past a flat-footed Mignolet.
From 2-0 to 2-2 in seven minutes, against the 19th-placed side. Against a side that hadn't scored any sort of goal against Liverpool in almost two years. At Anfield. It'd be unbelievable if it wasn't so very Liverpool. Liverpool have now conceded 10 goals in the last 15 minutes of matches this season – three in Rodgers' 11 matches, seven in Klopp's 28; six at Anfield, four away from home. It's not a protest problem, a fans' problem. It's not a Rodgers problem, it's not a Klopp problem. It's not an Anfield problem. It's a Liverpool problem.
So here we are again. Stuck with an underperforming, disappointing, simply bad football team. There are either breakdowns in attack or breakdowns at the back, and often both. Somehow decent, tepid, and horrific, all within 90 minutes. It seems that Liverpool find a way to throw away points in new, inventive, and soul-killing fashion every single week.
Once again, it's sound and fury signifying nothing. And not even that much sound or fury. A nothing result. A nothing performance. Liverpool have become irrelevant. And Liverpool are very close to becoming just another mid-table side.
Firmino 59'
Lallana 70'
Johnson 82'
Defoe 89'
The easy joke is that the Liverpool players joined a large portion of the stadium in walking out after 77 minutes. They aren't – or, at least shouldn't be – related events. Sure, it probably didn't help matters, but if you buy a ticket, you've the right to do whatever you want with it. And you don't get to criticize those in the stadium from the comfort of your couch or the local pub.
The players, however, are paid to play for 90 minutes. And they didn't. That's it. That's the alpha, that's the omega. That's Liverpool.
2-0 in the 70th minute, against a team that hadn't scored against Liverpool since March 2014, should have led to a routine win if the stadium completely emptied. If Liverpool's entire back line spontaneously combusted. Under any circumstances. It took 59 minutes, because Liverpool, but Liverpool finally had control of the situation. Liverpool should have maintained control of the situation. Liverpool didn't.
For 59 minutes, par for the course. Liverpool utterly dominate possession – 81.6% in the first half, the highest percentage I've ever seen – but Liverpool struggle to create chances, struggle to take shots, take said shots in poor positions, and put the majority of said shots off-target. But then, two excellent goals: a wonderful cross from Milner finding Firmino open at the back post (aided by van Aanholt's "marking"), then Firmino pressing Jones into a mistake before running on goal and centering for Lallana's tap-in. The assist made both of those goals, during a three-match spell where Liverpool had failed to create those types of chances. There had been 359 minutes of goalless football from Liverpool between Lallana's winner against Norwich and Firmino's opener, but then, all of a sudden, two in ten minutes.
Hurrah! 2-0 up against second-from-bottom Sunderland, who'd barely attempted to play football, who'd taken just four shots in 80 minutes: all off-target, three of four from outside the box. Fine. Cruise control. We'll spend the final 15 minutes talking about the fans' protest – which, again, isn't something I'd be comfortable doing but is completely understandable and more than within their rights – and leave with three much-needed points.
But, no, because Liverpool. A free kick from nothing, an unnecessary foul by Moreno. A wall that failed to block Johnson's free kick, which somehow snuck under Mignolet's hand. Another set play goal conceded. Another concession from the opposition's first shot on-target, for the 21st time in the 26 matches where Liverpool have conceded. 21 of 26. There aren't even words.
Fine. Shit happens. Very much against the run of play, a perfectly-placed shot, a bit of a fluke both with and without context. Just collect yourselves and see the game out. Just do your damned jobs. Ha. Ha ha ha ha. Because it only got worse. Because, somehow, every single Liverpool player lost their minds. Because Liverpool.
Back to all those Rodgers' performances where Liverpool let a lead slip, all those 1-0 wins which somehow turned into 1-1 draws, a failing we'd thought we'd fixed after those first few Klopp draws. Liverpool couldn't collect, Liverpool couldn't clear. Liverpool players stand off Sunderland's, Sunderland's players allowed time and space to pass in front of Liverpool's box, allowed the opportunity to find a way through for the second. Lucas brought on to add an extra defensive presence does nothing. And with a minute left in normal time, van Aanholt in space passes to Khazri, back to goal, allowed to turn. Khazri passes to Defoe in the box, back to goal, allowed to turn. And Defoe summarily and simply turns around Sakho, hammering past a flat-footed Mignolet.
From 2-0 to 2-2 in seven minutes, against the 19th-placed side. Against a side that hadn't scored any sort of goal against Liverpool in almost two years. At Anfield. It'd be unbelievable if it wasn't so very Liverpool. Liverpool have now conceded 10 goals in the last 15 minutes of matches this season – three in Rodgers' 11 matches, seven in Klopp's 28; six at Anfield, four away from home. It's not a protest problem, a fans' problem. It's not a Rodgers problem, it's not a Klopp problem. It's not an Anfield problem. It's a Liverpool problem.
So here we are again. Stuck with an underperforming, disappointing, simply bad football team. There are either breakdowns in attack or breakdowns at the back, and often both. Somehow decent, tepid, and horrific, all within 90 minutes. It seems that Liverpool find a way to throw away points in new, inventive, and soul-killing fashion every single week.
Once again, it's sound and fury signifying nothing. And not even that much sound or fury. A nothing result. A nothing performance. Liverpool have become irrelevant. And Liverpool are very close to becoming just another mid-table side.
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