Liverpool v Rubin Kazan 10.22.15

3:05pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 1

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 Tottenham (a); 1-1 Everton (a); 1-1 Sion (h)
Kazan: 3-1 Ufa (h); 1-2 Terek Grozny (a); 0-0 Bordeaux (h)

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 1-1 Sion (h); 1-1 Bordeaux (a)
Kazan: 0-0 Bordeaux (h); 1-2 Sion (a); 1-0 Rabotnicki (h), 1-1 Rabotnicki (a); 1-1 Sturm Graz (h), 3-2 Sturm Graz (a)

Goalscorers (Europe):
Liverpool: Lallana 2
Kazan: Kanunnikov, Karadeniz 2; Carlos Eduardo, Kuzmin, Portnyagin 1

Referee: Robert Schörgenhofer (AUT)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Sakho Moreno
Allen Can
Milner Coutinho Ibe
Origi

An entirely different manager, an entirely new attempt to gauge how seriously that manager will take this competition. If Klopp puts out a full-strength XI – and that's a fairly big if – I can only see a couple of changes: Ibe for Lallana or Coutinho, and Allen for Lucas or Can.

Even if Klopp wanted to, there are few options for alterations. Ings, Gomez, and Flanagan are out for months; Henderson and Rossiter for a little while longer. Sturridge, Benteke, Lovren, and Firmino are back in training, but none will start – or probably even play – until Sunday at the earliest.

I remind: Liverpool's bench on Saturday was Bogdan, Toure, Allen, Ibe, Randall, Teixeira, and Sinclair. Other than Ibe, Allen, and possibly Toure, if there are changes, it'll be youth players getting a chance. There were the three on the bench on Saturday – a right back, attacking midfielder, and striker – but Chirivella, Brannagan, and Maguire are also remote possibilities. Maybe, under a new manager, Jose Enrique is once again a thing that exists, but I doubt it. (Whoops. Derped that. Neither Enrique nor Teixeira are registered for the EL. Thanks to wides in the comments).

So you balance who's actually available with the regular starters you're most concerned about. Lucas rarely played three matches in a week under Rodgers. Lallana rarely plays 80+ minutes, rarely starts multiple matches in a matter of days, and ran an awful lot on Saturday. We're always concerned about Sakho's number of matches and ability to stay fit. Emre Can has still featured in every match this season.

In addition, Sunday's clearly the more important, tougher fixture, but if Liverpool want to qualify for the knockout rounds, Liverpool probably need to win this match. Sion have four points, Bordeaux and Liverpool two, Kazan one. Liverpool will only have one more home match after this. Advancement isn't impossible with a draw or even a loss tomorrow, but it makes doing so infinitely harder.

At the same time, it's not as if Liverpool's opponents are in sparkling form. Kazan's home win against second-to-bottom Ufa last weekend was Kazan's first win in any competition since September 12. After 12 matches, they sit 12 in the 16-team Russian League, with three wins, a draw, and eight losses.

Midfielder Kislyak is suspended after two yellows against Bordeaux, with Georgiev the most likely replacement – although he's also questionable after missing the weekend match through injury – but otherwise, my best guess at an XI is the same which Kazan started in both their last league match. Ryzhikov; Kuzmin, Kverkvelia, Kambolov, Nabiullin; Ozdoev, Georgiev; Kanunnikov, Carlos Eduardo, Karadeniz; Portnyagin.

Maybe ex-Evertonian Diniyar Bilyaletdinov – who has received fewer opportunities since his father was fired in September, replaced by Valeri Chaly – comes into the side. Maybe Marko Devic, a former Ukrainian international, starts up front in place of the struggling Portnyagin or alongside him. Kanunnikov can start up front or on the flanks; Carlos Eduardo as the #10 or out wide. Rubin Kazan, unlike Liverpool, seemingly have options. It's just that I'm not entirely sure what those options entail or which will be preferred.

It'll be interesting to see how Liverpool under Klopp respond to the pressure of expectations. Everyone was on a high following Klopp's appointment at Tottenham – and, to be fair, still are – and considering each side's respective forms and venue, anything earned at White Hart Lane, any progress, even marginal, made would be a bonus.

That's not the case tomorrow. Liverpool are at home, for Klopp's Anfield debut. Liverpool are deservedly favored. Liverpool are the better side. Liverpool need to win. How will Liverpool react?

Visualized: Liverpool 0-0 Tottenham

Previous Match Infographics: Everton (a), FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.



(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

"I’m satisfied with the start and it was not the worst sign. … The problem was that when we had the ball, we were not cool enough and we didn’t use our skills. We were a little bit too hectic. … A nought on the right side [of the scoreline] is okay, for sure, but on the other side it doesn’t give you the same feeling."

"For the moment, it’s more important for development to become stable. We needed Mignolet and a very strong game from him [today], but we can make it better when we play better football. We are able to play better football but today, after three days [training], it is okay."

-- Jürgen Klopp

And that's pretty much the alpha and omega of Saturday's match, especially the first of the quoted paragraphs.

It's news to no one that Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool struggled in attack from the beginning of last season. That wasn't going to change in a week, especially after an international break, and especially with Sturridge, Benteke, Ings, Henderson, and Firmino absent.

Liverpool's shot selection was limited and fairly wayward, the best and only true chance when Origi hit the crossbar from a corner. Only four shots came from inside the box, only two inside the Danger Zone, from just 12 in total.

Liverpool were stifled in the opposition half, with Tottenham completing 41 successful tackles, by far the most I've seen in the three-plus seasons of these infographics.

Origi's inexperience, a new and different formation with new and different tactics from Liverpool, and a surprisingly unassuming performance from Coutinho all contributed, but Dembele and Alli did a masterful job in Tottenham's midfield, while Rose also defended well against Milner and Lallana on Liverpool's right. Four of Dembele's nine tackles came against Origi (Coutinho 2; Ibe, Lallana, Milner 1). The experienced Belgian gave the inexperienced Belgian little time to find space or turn towards goal, with Origi limited to trying to hold up play to involve midfielders behind the ball, a tactic which saw Liverpool retain possession adequately but threaten little and less.



Liverpool pressed fairly well in Tottenham's half, and did very well to compress the space on the flanks, aided by Can and Milner's work-rate and the 4-3-2-1 system. Tottenham compressed the space in their own half, both centrally and out wide, to excellent effect, almost wholly nullifying Liverpool's play in the opposition half.

Everyone's gleefully noted the "just ******* run around a bit" stat – that Liverpool's players totaled 116 kilometers on Saturday, that Liverpool were the first side to run farther than Tottenham in a match this season – but statistics like that, in isolation, are why there's a vast section of the football-watching population who hate statistics. 'Sprints don't score you goals' etc etc.

Well, yeah. There are few, if any, statistics you can take in isolation. But the underlying point still stands. That Liverpool were immediately more diligent in pursuing the ball and running hard, longer, and faster is a good sign – as Carragher pointed out on Monday Night Football, that Klopp's ideas are taking hold – even if much more work's going to be needed to make those kilometers effective. What's more meaningful than the total kilometers run is that it's Liverpool who ran those kilometers. A Liverpool side that's looked jaded, weak, and ineffectual for months, if not a full year, immediately put in the hard work to match one of the hardest-working sides in the Premier League.

There were also some continued Liverpool mistakes in defense, but – unusually – they went unpunished. Lallana's 28th minute weak pass was the only Opta-defined error, requiring a brilliant save from Mignolet, but it's not as if Liverpool were immediately flawless at the back, both lucky in Tottenham finishing and thankful for Mignolet's efforts.

Nine of Tottenham's 13 shots came in a 20-minute spell before halftime, including all five of Tottenham's shots in the box. That was when Liverpool began to tire after the initial flurry, when you saw the need for higher fitness levels, when you saw the problems with instituting such a fevered style after only three days training.

Six of those nine shots came at least partly because of what Liverpool did, lesser degrees of error than Lallana's, but misplays all the same. N'Jie's 28th minute shot wonderfully saved; a wayward, failed clearance from Sakho leading to Eriksen's blocked effort from distance and the subsequent off-target header from the corner by Vertonghen; missed tackles from Lucas and Skrtel and a missed interception from Clyne leading to Kane's saved shot and Alli's effort artfully blocked by Skrtel in the 37th; a mix-up between Skrtel and Clyne allowing N'Jie's off-target blast in the 41st.

Sure, these things happen in every match, and aside from Lallana's, none was a near-fatal gaffe. But there are still blunders in that back line. But they seem remediable blunders.

And as Tottenham did for the first 20 minutes, Liverpool weathered that storm, took the counter-punches, with much of the credit going to Mignolet and Sakho. Liverpool only took five shots after the interval, but Tottenham only took four. Liverpool, despite fading, despite pressing less often, remained secure at the back and marginally more comfortable in possession, even if it was almost all non-threatening possession.

Even considering Tottenham's 20-minute flurry, even considering Liverpool's still-occurring gaffes, Liverpool were more cohesive defensively, especially on set plays (which is no small matter). By hook, by crook, by talent or by luck, Liverpool kept its first clean sheet in any competition since August 24, nine matches ago. Klopp was not kidding when he said that defense needed to be fixed first. Benitez, Dalglish, and Rodgers all began similarly, even if Rodgers veered well away from that strategy by his second season. It's almost always a manager's first task.

These were two fairly similar teams: part of the Premiership's upper-middle class, hard-working, full of running, not quite talented enough individually or collectively to break into the top four (at least yet). Both sides were held below their usual total shots, chances created, and passes attempted and completed; both sides completed around 75% of their passes, far below their usual average and the league average. Each side had dominant spells and chances in the first half, both sides sputtered and struggled in the second.

But Liverpool had a new manager, new system, and a 20-year-old making his full debut in a new league up front. Tottenham were at home, Tottenham have a more settled and more cohesive attack, and Tottenham haven't lost a league match since opening day: a narrow 0-1 defeat due to an own goal.

So, honors even, and probably rightly so. Liverpool are still 10th, but still only four points outside of fourth. As Liverpool's new manager explicitly said, it's a start that should satisfy, but there's still a lot of work to be done.

On Jürgen Klopp

I still can't believe Jürgen Klopp is about to become Liverpool's manager, with a press conference scheduled for 10AM BST on Friday.

This feels different. And not just because it's the first time that we've seen overwhelming optimism from the fan base for the first time since 2013-14 ended. The last year has been dreary and dire. Jürgen Klopp does not do dreary nor dire.

Jürgen Klopp comes with a reputation. He is a winner. His teams are fun to watch. He is iconoclastic and idiosyncratic: an oversized, outgoing, quote machine personality who should immediately mesh with Liverpool's base.

In retrospect, the thought process which led to Brendan Rodgers named manager was similar to that which led to the signings of Origi, Luis Alberto, Ilori, Can, Markovic, etc. All those "committee" signings. A high-risk, high-reward youngster. They've never proven it at the highest level, they're comparatively inexperienced, but there's room for growth. If it works out, Liverpool exploited an inefficiency in the market. If it doesn't, well, at least they didn't waste an egregious amount of resources, I guess.

Jürgen Klopp is an actual proven commodity, an innovator, one of the top 10 managers in the world. Two-time Bundesliga winner, three-time German Supercup winner, Pokal Cup winner, Champions League runner-up. And those trophies came at a club that had underwhelmed and underperformed prior to his arrival, winning despite a rival with much, much deeper pockets. It's a résumé that reminds of Rafa Benitez.

Let's be honest: Liverpool are incredibly lucky to get him. It took a series of unlikely circumstances for this to fall in place. It took Dortmund falling apart at the exact time that Liverpool did, a necessary end for Klopp's seven-year run. It took Liverpool unable to progress from last season's nadir, made worse by the difficult start to the season. It took a dearth of other attractive jobs, at least for the moment, at least to an "incurable romantic" such as Klopp. It took Klopp wanting a sabbatical over the summer, wanting to manage in the Premier League, and wanting a "project" rather than waltzing into an already set situation. It's a similar series of circumstances which led to the signing of Luis Suarez: the kind of talent Liverpool would love to deal in on a regular basis, but one not possible the majority of the time.

He's never done it in the Premier League? Neither did Benitez or Houllier. But they came with renown, with honest-to-goodness European pedigree. You know who had managed in the Premier League? Hodgson and Rodgers. I apologize for putting Brendan in the same sentence as Roy, but experience in England is obviously not a guarantee for success, with managers or transfer deals.

There's no guarantee of success here either – if you can ever guarantee success, please immediately call Ian Ayre or John Henry – but still, it's seemingly Suarez or Torres rather than Carroll or Benteke. It's Benitez, it's Houllier; it's not Hodgson or Rodgers. Liverpool, by hook or by crook, are shopping in a store they can't usually afford.

In their heyday, Klopp's Dortmund were the football hipster's darlings. Gegenpressing – literally, "counter pressing" – became a word that English speakers actually know, and not just because compound German words are more fun. You'll want to read this, from Spielverlagerung. There are, unsurprisingly, a number of outstanding articles about Klopp's Dortmund, articulating his tactics far better than I can. Just searching Klopp's name on Spielverlagerung is a good start. So are these:

• Two interviews in The Guardian, from May 2013 and November 2013
• This video from BBC Football Focus
• Searching Zonal Marking for old Dortmund match reviews
• We Are Hooligans: Analyzing Jurgen Klopp's Tactics At Borussia Dortmund
• Michael Caley on how gegenpressing made the Bundesliga the fastest league in the world

Curiously, Klopp's preferred formation while at Dortmund – at least for the majority of his tenure, at least with his best sides – was 4-2-3-1. Otherwise known as the formation that Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool struggled the most with.

What's most important isn't the formation. It's the ability to counter-press; it's quick, vertical attacking transitions; it's getting the best players on the field. Klopp isn't dogmatic about the 4-2-3-1 – Spielverlagerung's tactical analysis of last season's Pokal semifinal against Bayern highlights Dortmund's use of a 4-3-3/4-Diamond-2 hybrid, a formation seen a fair amount last season because of the respective talents of Reus, Aubamenyang, and Kagawa – but it's still his favored deployment.



I have two questions. Well, more than two, but two big ones: the striker situation and the composition of the midfield.

When everyone's available, Liverpool's squad seemingly demands two strikers, whether it's Sturridge, Benteke, or Ings. Does that mean one of Sturridge or Ings will play from the flank? In the hole? Will Benteke be the odd man out in a heavy pressing system? Or will Klopp change: 4-4-2. 4-2-2-2, 4-Diamond-2? Klopp's Dortmund used those formations at times, mostly in his last two seasons, albeit not on a regular basis.

And who's going to be the central midfield pairing? This, admittedly, is a question that dogged Rodgers since the beginning of last season, because no two-man pairing as stood out. Liverpool pretty much had to play two midfielders ahead of a single holder, or a diamond, or three at the back to function. And even then, it was a Band-Aid on a gaping wound. I suspect Henderson and Allen will eventually win out. Jordan Henderson is, hands down, Liverpool's best midfielder, and almost certainly will remain captain. Joe Allen, perpetually underrated by Liverpool fans, seems to fit Klopp's style. Sure, he doesn't stand out in any area, but he can press, pass, run, and hold to decent effect; after Henderson, he's Liverpool's most well-rounded midfielder. But Emre Can should see much more time in the middle. Lucas remains Liverpool's best defensive midfielder. Your guess is as good as mine.

Also, spare a thought for James Milner, signed this summer because of Brendan Rodgers, because he wanted to play more as an orthodox central midfielder. Welp. I wouldn't be surprised if he's back to being a versatile jack-of-all-trades, mainly used as a right winger, especially once Henderson returns. Can, Allen, and Lucas all seem better suited to playing in the midfield base in whatever formation Klopp chooses, while Milner's work-rate, pressing, and crossing ability would fit on the flank opposite Coutinho, Lallana, or Firmino. Sorry about that, Jimmy.

Regardless, it'll be awhile before we see Klopp's preferred XI, with Henderson out for another six weeks, Firmino and Lovren out for another couple, and questions over Benteke and Coutinho's availability immediately after the international break.

I really wish we'd be able to see it sooner. Because Klopp's first six weeks will be a baptism by fire.

• October 17 - Tottenham (a)
• October 22 - Rubin Kazan (h)
• October 25 - Southampton (h)
• October 28 - Bournemouth (h) [League Cup]
• October 31 - Chelsea (a)
• November 5 - Rubin Kazan (a)
• November 8 - Crystal Palace (h)
• November 21 - Manchester City (a)

Eight matches in little more than a month; two matches a week until the next international break. Matches in three different competitions. Three of Klopp's first four league matches all away, against last season's 5th, 1st, and 2nd place sides, with a dangerous Southampton at home the fourth.

No one said it was gonna be easy.

Of course, Klopp's not here for six weeks. He's here for the next three years – we hope, at least. Klopp's methods, especially synchronized pressing and quick attacking transitions, take time on the training pitch, and Liverpool is not going to have a lot of training time over the next couple of months. Dortmund improved in Klopp's first season – one with a full preseason – but it was a 13th-to-6th improvement. Then fifth. Then the two consecutive Bundesliga titles.

Top 4 remains the goal this season, and this change was made early enough to ensure it's a still possible goal, but after a managerial change, anything tangible reward this season seems a bonus. And yes, Liverpool's fixture list looks a lot better starting in December, giving Liverpool more than enough time to push towards fourth in this goofy, messed up league as long as they at least survive the next month.

It's going to be an interesting ride. Buckle up, sports fans, it's about to get fun. We've been missing fun for far too long.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Everton

Previous Match Infographics: FC Sion (h), Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


Unfortunately, this was a fitting capstone to Rodgers' Liverpool tenure.

Some ways, it was a typical Merseyside derby: both sides well below their usual output in both passes and shots, a potential sending-off or two ignored by a referee who wanted to "let them play," a match without a plethora of individual brilliance, a slog rather than a showpiece.

Liverpool weren't bad, considering form, fixture, opponent, and venue. Liverpool started well enough, not great in open play, but at least a little dangerous from set plays, finally converting through Ings from a Milner corner in the 41st minute. But, admittedly, it was as much Everton as it was Liverpool; we'd all be screaming had Liverpool's set play defense broken down in such a manner: Barkley not close enough to Ings, Howard failing to come just two yards off his goal-line.

Incidentally, it was Liverpool's first goal directly from a corner since Gerrard's winner against QPR last May.

Liverpool took decent enough shots, if not enough of them, even if the best of the bunch were from set plays. Nine in the Danger Zone. 11 of 13 from inside the box. Three shots in the six-yard box, which is the most that Liverpool's had in that zone in a league match since the 3-0 win at Tottenham in August 2014. 44 league matches ago.

And once again, Liverpool underperformed their Expected Goals total, converting their best chance, but only their best chance. Liverpool underperformed Expected Goals in three of Rodgers' four full seasons, 2013-14 the only exception. Meanwhile, Everton had the best three chances of the match, but little more.

xG map for #EFC-#LFC. Liverpool's struggled to retain control after giving up an equalizer from a defensive error. pic.twitter.com/JcoNACAAsN

— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) October 4, 2015

And then, not long after scoring, Liverpool conceded, through both a mistake and an unfortunate ricochet. And then Liverpool fall apart. And Liverpool were subsequently under pressure for the majority of the second half, and Liverpool were unable to change proceedings through substitutions. And that's basically the story of the last 16 months. It's the same process and same result we've seen in five of the last six matches.

Aside from the same old, same old, there were two features of Liverpool's play which disappointed: Sturridge and Coutinho unable to get into the game and Liverpool's midfield once again unbalanced and unable to control proceedings.

For the most part, Everton marked Coutinho with McCarthy and Sturridge with Funes Mori. And both players did an excellent job on their respective opponents. McCarthy made seven successful tackles, of eight attempted; three were on Coutinho, two on Sturridge. Three of Funes Mori's four successful tackles came against Sturridge. The two were held to six shots, five off-target or blocked, with only Coutinho creating a single chance. Neither player did much with the ball at their feet.

That Coutinho pulled out of the Brazil squad today suggests he was carrying an injury yesterday, something his limited involvement also suggests.

As for Liverpool's midfield. Coutinho's limited involvement is part of the explanation. Average position is always somewhat of a lie, an average position based on where players touched the ball rather than where they were throughout the match, but it was still odd to see Milner as Liverpool's most-advanced player, even ahead of Sturridge and Ings in the above passing network chalkboard. Yes, Liverpool need its midfielders to get beyond the strikers on occasion, to make meaningful runs into the box, but Milner so far forward meant that there were few options available when Lucas or the center-backs wanted to make a short pass out from the back. And so, Liverpool looked long.





Everton unsurprisingly attempted more long passes – that is one of Lukaku's great strengths, after all, especially when he's working against Skrtel and Can – but Liverpool also attempted a surprisingly large amount, bypassing the midfield, looking for Ings to play like Liverpool seemingly wants Benteke to play. Danny Ings is not Christian Benteke.



And it left Lucas with a lot of work to do in defense. That he successful completed eight of nine tackles, spread across the width of the pitch, demonstrates how much work he put it, and that he was fairly successful at doing so. That he committed seven fouls, breaking up Everton attacks, while also only picking up a single yellow card, shows some veteran guile (in addition to demonstrating that Martin Atkinson, thankfully, didn't want to "ruin the game"). Along with Mignolet, for his two outstanding first-half saves, and Ings, if only for his goal and work-rate, Lucas was Liverpool's main contender for man of the match.

Thus marks the end of Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool tenure. Not with a bang, but a whimper. With Liverpool not especially good, but not especially bad. With Liverpool scoring first, then conceding, then unable to change the tenor or tempo of proceedings through substitutions or tactical tweaks. It was all rather mundane, only lightened by handbags at ten paces from Can and Barkley, than Sakho and Lukaku. That seemed the sum of Liverpool's fight. Sure, there are excuses for the performance: new players, key absentees, away from home, etc. etc. It's not as if Everton didn't have similar handicaps. Ennui and mediocrity, in a Merseyside Derby.

It wasn't the straw that broke the camel's back. It wasn't the worst we've been subjected to, but it wasn't the best. And, after more than a season of similar, it just wasn't good enough anymore.

On Brendan Rodgers

Can something be completely expected and wholly unexpected at the same time? Decisive and indecisive?

Brendan Rodgers has felt like a dead man walking since Liverpool hit its first stutter in August. Brendan Rodgers probably should have been fired last May, after that abysmal season hit it lowest low at Stoke. But FSG gave him a chance to make amends, for whatever reason, and when amends didn't seem like coming, FSG pulled the rug out. Feel free to pick your narrative: whether it shows FSG acting at long last or whether it's FSG scrambling for answers. I honestly don't know.

You all suffered through the last 16 months, same as I. The dire, depressing football. Repeated mistakes regardless of opposition or tactics. Little evidence of improvement, little evidence of any grand tactical plan to fix the failings. The transfer debacles, even if it's still unclear who's to blame for each purchase.

I have a theory why Brendan Rodgers was fired.



The short version: Suarez left, Sturridge got injured, Liverpool stopped scoring. I know, it's radical.

Every now and then, Liverpool would put a decent defensive run together. The end of 2012-13 through the start of 2013-14. Midway through last season. The first three matches this season, even if they were bracketed by 1-3 Palace, 1-6 Stoke and then 0-3 West Ham, 1-3 United. But Liverpool consistently let in at least one goal, if not more, throughout the course of Rodgers' tenure.

No matter who Liverpool signed, no matter who Liverpool played, no matter what formation Rodgers tried. Liverpool have not been able to score for more than a season, let alone come anywhere near the free-scoring tumult which nearly led to the title two seasons ago.

2012-13 showed promise, a plan. 2013-14 was unbelievable. 2014-15 was an abomination. And 2015-16 was cut short because it looked far too much like the previous season rather than the first or second.

It was only 16 short or long months ago that Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool nearly won the title, the only good season in five years, scoring a record 101 goals in the process.

I suspect you remember the issues. That lack of goals. Consistent failings in big games, in the league, cups, and Europe, especially away from home. A scattershot approach to tactics and formations over the last calendar year, sometimes deploying three in the same match, which Liverpool inevitably drew or lost. Since the beginning of last season, Liverpool won just one (1) league match after going behind: 3-1 at Leicester in December. Since the beginning of last season, Liverpool lost or drew eight league matches after taking a lead, including this most recent.

This had to happen. And since it didn't happen last May, that it's happening before an international break, giving Liverpool time to make the hire before fast and furious league, Europe, and cup campaigns resume is at least small consolation. It wasn't the right time, but it's a right time.

It is hard to reconcile 2013-14 with what followed, especially now, at the end. I've been following Liverpool for nearly 15 years. I've been doing this blog for nine. There were seasons with better reward – 2001, 2005, even 2006 – but the 2013-14 version of Liverpool was the most fun I've ever had watching football. It was exhilarating, it was non-stop, it was a Tasmanian Devil wrecking machine, until it came up against Chelsea's anti-football, and the slip, and the decline, and the descent into madness. This, by The Anfield Wrap's Neil Atkinson, is absolutely required reading, probably the best Rodgers eulogy you'll see.

Sure, a lot of credit for that season goes to Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge, especially considering what came after, but Rodgers at least put Liverpool in the position for them to succeed, for Liverpool to succeed. You could say similar about 2008-09, that Gerrard and Torres carried Liverpool to that almost. But, like with Benitez, that success gets you approximately one season. You're only as good as your best players, and only as good as your manager gets out of those players. And you're only as good as your last season.

At the end, you remember the good times. And you expect the next man up to be better.

Good luck with whatever follows, Brendan. It's sad that won't be at Liverpool, but it had to happen.

Liverpool 1-1 Everton

Goals:
Ings 42'
Lukaku 45+2'

In isolation, a draw at Everton isn't the worst result. It's the same result Liverpool have gotten at Goodison in the previous three seasons. It's the sixth Merseyside Derby draw in the last seven meetings. Everton were the more dangerous side throughout the second half, if not the entire match; Everton have played better than Liverpool since the start of the season.

In context, it's supremely depressing. Because it's the fifth 1-1 in the last six matches. Because it's the fifth time in six matches that Liverpool have scored first only to concede a quick equalizer. Because it's the fifth goal – from 13 in all competitions – that Liverpool have conceded when a Liverpool player made the penultimate touch before the opposition scored, setting up the opposition goal through either ricochet or error or both. Because, once again, the opposition only equalized because of an individual mistake and unfortunate bounce of the ball.

Once again, Liverpool were mediocre in open play: mostly decent at the back, if needing a couple of wonderful saves from Mignolet, but outmuscled in midfield and isolated in attack. After 40 minutes of meh, with Liverpool marginally on top in possession and territory but Mignolet saving the best two chances, from Lukaku and McCarthy, it's no surprise that Liverpool's goal came from a set play, as Liverpool at least kept racking up corners and a goal didn't look like coming from open play. And it a very Dirk Kuyt goal against a side that Dirk Kuyt loved to score against from Liverpool's new Dirk Kuyt: Milner's corner, Ings in the six-yard box, beating Barkley and Howard failing to come off his line.

But – unlike Bordeaux, Norwich, Carlisle, and Sion – Everton didn't need 15 or so minutes to find the equalizer. Just five. Everton possession, Deulofeu's cross, Can's mis-hit clearance deflecting off Skrtel straight to Lukaku, easily hammered in from seven yards. It was the exact mistake which should have cost Liverpool against Aston Villa. But Romelu Lukaku is not Rudy Gestede, especially when he's about 10 yards closer to goal. And it happened a minute before the halftime whistle, when – you'd assume, maybe incorrectly – that Liverpool would be able to regroup and solidify for the second half onslaught. Sigh.

And then came the second half, where only one team looked like winning. Where only one team appears to want to win. Nine Liverpool shots in the first half, just four in the second (just one on-target, from Coutinho, straight at Howard). Five Everton shots in the first half, nine in the second.

At least Liverpool didn't concede? At least neither Can nor Lucas picked up a second yellow; Emre Can especially regrouped well after a first-half yellow and at fault for the equalizer. Browning's header from a corner was luckily deflected just over thanks to Sakho, Mignolet denied Lukaku on a second clear-cut chance. For all of Everton's possession and better play, Liverpool actually defended well. In the previous five 1-1s, Liverpool hadn't been put under much pressure after conceding, the "better" side, at home, in all five. Not this time, but they still held on. That's at least a bit of progress, I think.

The story of the match – other than the sloppy concession, of course – is that Liverpool got nothing from its two most important players: both Coutinho and Sturridge were marked into isolation by Everton's makeshift back-line, neither given space to create something from nothing, neither supported by the teammates who need to create chances for them. Everton are not Aston Villa; it was going to take a lot more work to pass and dance through the back-line, while any attempted pressing wasn't anywhere near as effective because of Everton's ability to quickly pass over the midfield to Lukaku.

Even though he was a big reason why Liverpool had little control in midfield, Milner played well, Liverpool's most creative player, full of running and contributing more from set plays than in any previous match. Even though he picked up a stupid yellow and was at fault for the goal, Emre Can regrouped well in the second half. Even though he's not Christian Benteke, Ings worked hard to be an outlet for Liverpool's hoofs from the back, and scored the needed goal on a set play, his third in the last five matches. Even though he's been mostly terrible all season long, featuring a disturbing low save percentage, Mignolet kept Liverpool in the match.

But that's not good enough, not after what we've seen over the last month, over the course of the season so far, not with Liverpool's horrific record away from home against the Top 4 and Everton throughout Rodgers' tenure. That's not good enough when Liverpool have won just once since August 17. The 3-1-4-2 wasn't good enough in providing Liverpool a platform to attack, nor the 3-4-2-1 after Lallana replaced Ings. Liverpool should have been good enough to pose more of a threat against a back line that featured a new signing at center-back and two inexperienced under-21 full-backs. Liverpool "should be good enough" to have gotten much better results than they have all season long. But it hasn't happened, for a plethora of reasons that we've discussed time and time again: impotence in attack, little pattern to the play – mainly due to questionable tactics and an unbalanced midfield – and mistakes in defense.

So, yeah, a draw's both disappointing for all we've seen before and acceptable based on the run of play in the match. Will that be good enough to save Rodgers' job through the upcoming international break?

Liverpool at Everton 10.04.15

8:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (a) 02.07.15
1-1 (h) 09.27.14
4-0 Liverpool (h) 01.28.14
3-3 (a) 11.23.13

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Sion (h); 3-2 Villa (h); 1-1 Carlisle aet (h) [3-2 pens]
Everton: 3-2 West Brom (a); 2-1 Reading (a); 0-0 Swansea (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke, Sturridge 2; Coutinho, Ings, Milner 1
Everton: Lukaku 4; Naismith 3; Barkley, Kone 2

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Can Skrtel Sakho
Lucas
Clyne Coutinho Milner Moreno
Sturridge Ings

So, are we going to get 3-2 against Aston Villa Liverpool (*waves at Daniel Sturridge*) or 1-1 against Norwich, Carlisle, and Sion Liverpool?

I'll be very surprised if it's not the same XI we saw at Villa: 3-1-4-2, Ings and Sturridge up front, Milner and Lucas returning to midfield, Sakho and Can returning to defense. Maybe it's a slight formation change, a 3-4-1-2 instead, with both Milner and Lucas behind Coutinho, as we saw against Norwich, the same formation we saw against Sion.

It's not as if Liverpool have been awful during this 1W-3D stretch. As written over and over and over and over, they've been reasonably in control in all four games, they're creating chances. Liverpool just cannot score. And when they do, they then concede against the run of play, and then they can't get the lead back. Sturridge's inclusion obviously helps this failing, playing Coutinho and Milner ahead of Lucas helps this failing, getting more players forward for both combination play with the strikers and runs into the box. Coutinho and Milner ahead of Lucas makes pressing more possible, unsettling Everton's McCarthy-Barry base, allowing for the quick transitions against an out-of-position defense so crucial to Liverpool actually getting goals. Liverpool will need the added impetus from midfield because chances are that the wingbacks will need to defend more than they've had to in this system. Which Nathaniel Clyne is not opposed to.

But whether we see "impotent Liverpool" or "almost reasonably competent Liverpool" might not be up to Liverpool. Everton are clearly a better side than the last four that Liverpool have faced. A less impressive Everton held Liverpool to draws in both meetings last season: a fairly turgid, watching-paint-dry 0-0 at Goodison, while Liverpool wasted multiple chances and conceded a late, unlikely equalizer (sound familiar?) at Anfield.

Through seven league matches, Everton have been much better this season, looking more like the 2013-14 version which competed for a Champions League place. They're unbeaten since August 23rd, a 2-0 loss to Manchester City. Since then, victories over Chelsea, West Brom, and Reading; 0-0 draws against Tottenham and Swansea; and an extra time cup win over Barnsley.

If there's any weakness, it's injuries, mainly in defense. Stones and Coleman are doubtful, while Baines, Cleverley, Besic, Pienaar, and Hibbert are out. Kevin Mirallas is also suspended. If neither Stones nor Coleman are available, it'll be another makeshift defense, similar to the one which allowed two goals at West Brom last week: a West Brom side that had scored two goals combined in the previous five matches in league and cup. But then Everton scored three, coming back from 0-2 down in the second half. Must be nice when a team's able to come back after conceding.

Lukaku scored two of those three goals and set up the other. Lukaku's four goals through seven games is joint-fourth best in the league. I'm terrified of Lukaku against Skrtel and Can, especially since the striker likes to pull towards the inside left channel, exactly where he can exploit the space between Can and Skrtel, and each's respective weaknesses. Not only is he a powerful header, just as Gestede trucked Liverpool last week, he can be brutal on the counter with the ball at his feet. The key will be cutting off supply, whether through Liverpool's pressing, whether through Lucas, whether through defense on the flanks to ensure crosses aren't coming.

Without Stones and Coleman, the XI will probably be the similar to the one which beat West Brom: Howard; Browning, Funes Mori, Jagielka, Galloway; McCarthy, Barry; Deulofeu, Barkley, Naismith; Lukaku. Maybe Kone or Lennon replaces Deulofeu, maybe Gibson plays as a makeshift right-back. Given the length of their respective injuries, I suspect Stones is more likely to return than Coleman.

Either way, it's a fairly settled and confident Everton, at home, looking for its first win over Liverpool since Roy Hodgson was Liverpool's manager. Liverpool, for once, are the underdogs. Liverpool are the out-of-form, struggling, underperforming side. Liverpool's manager is constantly rumored to be edging closer to being fired.

Liverpool need a result much, much more than their opponents, opponents who often treat this fixture as their cup final. Or else.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 FC Sion

Previous Match Infographics: Aston Villa (h), Norwich (h), Bordeaux (a), Manchester United (a), West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always for Europa League matches, all data from WhoScored.


(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

From two weeks ago:

Liverpool's next four matches are at home. Liverpool's next four matches are against Norwich, Carlisle, Aston Villa, and FC Sion. We're all aware that Liverpool have the potential to lose any match against any opponent on any day, and usually in the most comical fashion possible, but those are four winnable matches, especially considering what Liverpool's fixture list has looked like so far.

Welp. At least Liverpool didn't lose any of them?

4 #LFC homes in a row vs Norwich, Carlisle, Villa and Sion 111 shots to 33 43 on target to 12 6 goals to 5 3 draws and a 3-2 win

— Dan Kennett (@DanKennett) October 1, 2015

I'm gonna go out on a limb and suggest that more-than-tripling your opponents' shot total but only scoring one more goal is a bad thing.

23 shots against Villa. 47 against Carlisle. 21 against Villa. 19 against Sion. Six goals from 111 shots. Six goals from 43 shots on-target. Meanwhile, that murderers' row slate of opponents scored five goals from 33 shots, five goals from 12 shots on-target. I'm not sure which is worse.

Every outfield Liverpool player, including all three subs, created at least one chance. Nine of the 13 took at least one shot.

Liverpool had six Opta-defined clear-cut chances: "A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range." Six! Liverpool only created nine combined through its first seven league matches, with no more than three in any of the matches (against Bournemouth and Norwich, one of the three scored in each).

• 4' - Lallana Goal
• 16' - Ings blocked
• 39' - Can saved
• 64' - Origi saved
• 69' - Origi saved
• 74' - Lallana saved

One goal, one blocked, and four saved. Goal, Ings' touch allowing Pa Modou to recover, free header straight at the keeper, shot straight at the keeper, shot straight at the keeper, shot straight at the keeper. I reiterate: 'Reasonably expected to score.' That's not good.

It wasn't as if Liverpool took bad shots yesterday, which we've seen in more than a few disappointing performances since the beginning of last season. Those six clear-cut chances. 15 of 19 shots inside the box, with eight in the Danger Zone. Only five of 19 shots blocked. An overall shot accuracy of 42.1%.

Unlike in the first six matches of the season, creativity wasn't the problem. Which, I guess, is a modicum of progress. Liverpool. Simply. Could. Not. Finish. And not for the first time.

We worried about whether the Villa result was a Sturridge-inspired fluke, and yesterday did nothing to dispel that notion. If you can't consistently finish your chances, you're not going to win many matches, especially when you concede at least one regrettable goal per game. Yesterday's equalizer looked a bit like Carlisle's: Liverpool concede possession, Liverpool get caught out by pass in behind the defense (against Carlisle, a throughball; against Sion, a long cross-field over a failed offside trap), Liverpool's keeper fails to save a savable shot. It wasn't the insanity we saw against Norwich or the misfortune against Bordeaux, but it was disappointing all the same.

Brendan Rodgers didn't miss all those chances. Brendan Rodgers didn't pass directly to Kouassi when Liverpool were quickly pushing forward in transition. But those misses and errors could well end up costing him his job. For the fourth consecutive match, admittedly against less-than-impressive opposition, he set his team up in a way that should have led to a Liverpool victory had players done what they're supposed to do. But Rodgers picked those players, Rodgers signed those players (endless transfer committee debates notwithstanding). Once again, Rodgers' side is incapable, whether due to morale, talent, or tactics, to come back after conceding. Insert your very original *character* joke here.

In Liverpool's last four draws, beginning at Bordeaux, Liverpool conceded 16, 13, 11, and 14 minutes after scoring the opener. It's followed the same script, whether Liverpool score in the 4th, 23rd, 48th, or 65th minute: a brief flurry where Liverpool could maybe almost get a second but unsurprisingly don't, and then an opposition stomach punch. Rather than put supposedly weaker opponents to the sword, Liverpool let them get back in the game not long after. And this all happened at Fortress Anfield. Aside from the match at Bordeaux, where Liverpool scored the latest and were away from home, Liverpool had a long time and multiple chances to retake the lead. Yet couldn't, yet didn't.

And it's not as if this is a new phenomenon.

The Merseyside Derby in two days' time somehow became even more important.