14 September 2015

Visualized: Liverpool 1-3 Manchester Utd

Previous Match Infographics: West Ham (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


Another game, another disappointment.

United weren't impressive in almost any sense of the word, but United were better: comfortably in control in midfield, pressing Liverpool into mistakes at Liverpool's end of the pitch in the first half, defending resolutely on the flanks to keep Liverpool from entering the final third (those clusters of tackles and interceptions!), and actually converting a couple of their few-and-far-between chances: one set play, one deserved penalty, one on the counter. One of the drearier United sides I've seen, one without a recognized striker until a 19-year-old making his debut came on as a substitute, were definitively better than Liverpool were.

We can complain about Liverpool's temerity, an inability to even attempt to take the game to underwhelming opposition until falling behind – yet again! – in what's supposed to be the country's most contentious derby.

We can complain about Liverpool's tactical choices: Firmino and Ings basically as wing-backs in the first half, a reliance on long balls to an isolated Benteke, nonexistent pressing despite two central midfielders and two "wide forwards" more than capable of doing so, etc. We can complain about the general playing style, we can complain about the substitutions. And we can certainly complain about the result: Liverpool's seventh league loss in the last 14 league matches.

Let's just complain about another insipid attacking performance instead.

Liverpool's attack has been dire since the start of last season, but the rot's really set in over the last 14 matches, since the 1-2 home loss against Manchester United on March 22, which ended Liverpool's 13-match unbeaten streak in the league and was the beginning of the end for Liverpool's experiment with the 3-4-2-1.

Since then: 12 goals scored, 24 goals conceded, 4W-3D-7L, an average of 1.07 points per game. Admittedly, it hasn't been the easiest run – away at Arsenal twice, home and away against United, away at Stoke twice, away at Chelsea – but that's still relegation-level form.

The sad thing is, Liverpool have still out-shot their opponents over that spell, and created more chances than their opponents over that spell. 201 shots for, 157 shots against. 143 key passes for, 110 against.

Here's the problem:



8.16% goal conversion! Eight. Point. One. Six. One goal for every 12.26 on- or off-target shots.

Just the 10% better shot accuracy from Liverpool's opponents, and the better-than-double goal conversion percentage, then.



Shot location's been a problem, but it's certainly not the root cause. And blocked shots have been a problem – Liverpool had 54 shots blocked during this span, while Liverpool have blocked 35 opposition shots – but, again, it's a lesser concern.

Liverpool just don't have anyone capable of converting on anywhere remotely near a regular basis. Not Sterling, Coutinho, Lambert, Balotelli, etc last season, not Benteke et al (yet) this season.

During this stretch, Liverpool have played five different formations, not counting the changes necessarily made when reduced to ten men in two of those matches. It's mostly been 4-3-3, but we've also seen 3-4-2-1, 4-2-3-1, 4-1-4-1, and 4-3-1-2 with no strikers. And for the most part, Liverpool have struggled to conjure any competent attack no matter the set-up.

During this stretch, we've seen a match and a half where Liverpool actually played well: the 1-1 draw at an already-clinched-the-league-and-coasting Chelsea last May, and the first half at Arsenal last month – both matches where Liverpool remained goal shy but were strong enough in other areas to compensate. Otherwise, we've seen "I guess that'll do" (2-0 Newcastle, 1-0 at Stoke), "not good but hey they won" (2-1 QPR, 1-0 Bournemouth), and "good lord, won't someone please think of the children!" (1-4 Arsenal, 1-3 Palace, 1-6 Stoke, 0-3 West Ham, 1-3 United).

Of course, there are the other problems than the attack – Skrtel and Lovren in defense (see these two tweets from Dan Kennett, for starters), an often unbalanced and goal-shy midfield, the need to bed in multiple new players after needing to do the same last season, etc – but a consistently embarrassing attack since the sale of Luis Suarez and the constant injuries of Daniel Sturridge is the ne plus ultra of Liverpool woes.

And that's after spending somewhere in the realm of £140m on eight attackers in the last 16 months. Lambert, Lallana, Markovic, Origi, Balotelli, Ings, Firmino, and Benteke. Sure, four of those players have only been available for five matches, but last summer's signings contributed a grand total of 10 league goals (five from Lallana). And three of those four attackers signed last summer (not counting Origi), all but Lallana, aren't even with the club this season: two loaned (and probably unlikely to return), one sold.

We've seemingly reached the point where we're throwing shit at the wall and hoping something sticks. In tactics, in formation, in transfers, in overall strategy. There has to be a grand plan behind the thought processes, but it's hard to see it. And you can blame FSG, Ayre, Rodgers, and the players. No one escapes criticism for the last 16 months we've endured.

Right now, Liverpool don't have the personnel to recreate their best form under Rodgers – direct fast-break counter-attacking – at least not with Sturridge out, but Liverpool also don't have the personnel to support their newest, shiniest, costliest attacker: no one making runs to support and/or get beyond Benteke, few if any natural wingers or above-average crossers.

And "just wait until Sturridge returns" certainly isn't sufficient. Liverpool shouldn't be, can't be reliant on a single injury-prone player, especially given the amount of money spent on other players and in other areas. Liverpool were missing more than a few first-team players on Saturday, but one of the richest teams in football – even if those richer are much, much richer – should be strong enough to survive some absentees.

We've haven't (yet) reached the depths of Hodgeball – a comparison I never thought I'd have to employ again – and five games (including two away at Arsenal and United) remains a pitifully small sample size, but Liverpool are certainly in a very, bad place right now, from top to bottom, from back to front. And Liverpool's manager is both the easiest scapegoat and seemingly the easiest to change.

12 September 2015

Liverpool 1-3 Manchester United

Goals:
Blind 49'
Herrera 70' (pen)
Benteke 84'
Martial 86'

Once again, Liverpool get what Liverpool deserve.

Kyle Martino said it perfectly on NBC after the match. "Brendan Rodgers set up Liverpool to play against the ghost of Manchester United past." That's a perfect summation of today's proceedings.

We're all poorer for watching that first half. As against Arsenal, Liverpool sat back to defend, a firm line of four defenders protected by five midfielders. Ings and Firmino, a striker and a #10, were wing backs in all but name. But this Manchester United is not Arsenal, not on their best day. And especially not with Marouane Fellaini leading the line. This was a Manchester United almost, but not quite, as dire as Liverpool.

And it resulted in one of worst halves of football that I've ever seen. Two United shots, one Liverpool shot, none on-target for either side, none remotely threatening. Liverpool simply never looked like threatening, the "counter" routinely breaking down well before the final third, while the only chances United had came from Liverpool mistakes. It was 45 minutes of death warmed over. Which, to be fair, wasn't too far from what Rodgers seemingly intended.

Unfortunately, you can be more secure than a bank vault in open play, and still concede on a set play. Twice, in fact. With Liverpool's fullbacks – one of the few bright spots so far this season – at least initially at fault for both: Clyne's soft free kick on Young, Gomez's penalty on Herrera.

Liverpool's set play defending remains hilariously terrible, somehow continuing to find new ways to concede after more than a year of conceding in hilarious new ways. This time, no one picked up a wide open Blind on the edge of the area; sure, Schweinsteiger set a decent pick, but there should be at least one more player in position to get a block in, rather than seven or eight defenders stuck on their edge of their six-yard box. Meanwhile, Gomez's foul was an 18-year-old out-of-position full back getting done by a clever attacker when forced to defend with his weaker foot.

Shit happens. Which is why you can't solely rely on your defense keeping a clean sheet and "hoping for the best" in attack.

My favorite part of today's horror show was Liverpool persisting with its defensive 4-3-3 formation even after going two-down. Ibe replaced Firmino, Origi replaced Ings. Ibe made a difference, but Origi was a lesser version of Ings' "striker stuck on the wing." Liverpool's response was "eh, let's get some fresh legs on and maybe push the midfielders and wide players forward more." Fantastic. Brendan Rodgers really isn't helping himself.

Those changes made Liverpool marginally better in attack, but "marginally" better isn't anywhere near good enough when you're already behind and have nowhere to go but up. Benteke pulled one back with a stunning bicycle kick from a deflected cross in the 84th – one of the best goals you're ever likely to see – but it was little more than a consolation at that point, especially when Martial burnt Skrtel to a crisp two minutes later to restore the two-goal margin. Finally, at that point, Rodgers removed his defensive midfielder for another wide attacker (Moreno, who – I'm sure you're aware – is a left back). In the 87th minute. In a 1-3 match. I cannot sigh hard enough.

While we're here, we might as well get the excuses out of the way. It is still very in the season, a team full of new players in a new formation. As Bass Tuned To Red helpfully noted, none of Liverpool's top eight chance creators from last season – which, you'll remember was a pretty bad season – were available today. Liverpool will almost certainly look a much different side with Sturridge, Coutinho, and Henderson in the lineup. And, surprise of surprises, Liverpool weren't far off from scoring three or more: Blind clearing Skrtel's set play header off the line, Firmino missing the close range rebound, and wonderful saves from De Gea on Ings and Ibe. Of course, all of those chances came after Liverpool were already losing.

On the other hand, we've seen this movie before. Despite that mini-flurry after conceding, Liverpool's attack remains horrific, and has been horrific since Luis Suarez was sold and Sturridge became permanently injured. Horrific in the amount of shots, horrific in the quality of shots, horrific in the ability to create chances, and just generally horrific in the final third.

So far this season, Liverpool have scored two hapax legomenon goals and one offside goal through five matches. And have conceded six in the last two matches. So much for building from the back. And that'll continue as teams realize they can bomb forward at will because Liverpool offers next to no threat.

Sure, losing to United always makes the feelings worse, but right now, it feels all we've got is hope that Liverpool will be better as key players return and new players gel. Because we've seen nothing to suggest that this team playing in this manner will lead to better results.

11 September 2015

Liverpool at Manchester United 09.12.15

12:30pm ET, live in the US on NBC

Last four head-to-head:
1-2 United (h) 03.22.15
0-3 United (a) 12.14.14
3-0 Liverpool (a) 03.16.14
0-1 United (a; League Cup) 09.25.13

Last matches:
Liverpool: 0-3 West Ham (h); 0-0 Arsenal (a); 1-0 Bournemouth
United: 1-2 Swansea (a); 4-0 Brugge (a); 0-0 Newcastle (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke, Coutinho 1
United: Januzaj, Mata 1

Referee: Michael Oliver

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Lovren Gomez
Milner Lucas Can
Firmino
Benteke Ings

Well this is inopportune timing.

Coutinho's suspended after his red card against West Ham. Henderson and Lallana are almost certainly still absent with their respective injuries. It seems a week or two too soon for Sturridge to return, even if he is back in training. Liverpool haven't yet looked anywhere near their potential best, coming off an international break where nearly everyone was away from Melwood, and coming off their worst home loss in years.

So, yeah, it's not an ideal time to travel to Old Trafford.

Rumor has it that Ings will replace the suspended Coutinho. Which could mean a straight swap – Ings (like Origi, for that matter) is capable of playing as an advanced attacker on the left – or a switch to the 4-4-2 diamond formation.

The lack of width often present in the diamond formation makes me a bit nervous about that formation, especially given United's strength out wide. Liverpool's fullbacks won't get forward often regardless of formation, but Liverpool's midfielders will need to support the defense when Depay, Mata, Shaw, and Darmian attack. And as Swansea demonstrated, there's space to hurt United on the counter when United's fullbacks (especially Shaw) get forward. But Swansea scored their goals on the counter while using a diamond/4-3-1-2: for Ayew pulling into the channels to free space for Gomis, read Ings (or Firmino) and Benteke. And at the same time, the first four matches have also made it obvious that Benteke needs more support. So, yeah, maybe diamond, or what'll be more accurately described as a 4-3-1-2, with Can and Milner necessarily sitting deeper.

If not Ings, the only other option seems to be Jordon Ibe, his pace on the counter-attack a clear benefit, but Ibe's also struggled so far this season, tentative in the final third and more likely to be used as a substitute rather than a starter.

Regardless of formation, Liverpool will want to replicate their performance at Arsenal (except, you know, while actually scoring this time). Unlike against West Ham, the emphasis will be on defense and solidity and limiting space. Which should lead to improved performances from both Lovren and Gomez, who I expect will keep their places. Sure, I think Sakho's a better defender than Lovren, and Moreno's attacking ability will be useful in certain matches, but I doubt Rodgers is changing his defense for this derby.

And to be a little fairer to Liverpool, it's not as if Manchester United have blown the doors off to start the season either. They've scored three league goals to Liverpool's two (including one own goal), have the same total of points, and lost to Swansea last time out. United dominated both legs of their Champions League qualifier against Club Brugge but have failed to impress in any of their league matches, against an arguably weaker slate of opponents than Liverpool have faced: Tottenham (h), Aston Villa (a), Newcastle (h), and Swansea (a).

United's lineup is far easier to predict. De Gea will make his first start of the season, back in favor after his transfer to Madrid fell through and having signed a new four-year contract on Friday. Fellaini seems likely to replace Herrera in the #10 role behind Rooney. It's probably still too soon for new signing Anthony Martial, who'll most likely begin on the bench, while Carrick and Jones look likely to remain absent through an ankle injury and blood clot respectively.

Which makes an XI of De Gea; Darmian, Smalling, Blind, Shaw; Schneiderlin, Schweinsteiger; Mata, Fellaini, Depay; Rooney. Which is a far stronger XI than United's league performances would suggest; you have to suspect they'll get there, and have to hope it won't start tomorrow. Clyne v Depay and Fellaini v Lucas will be fascinating battles, while Gomez will have his hands full against Mata, who, in preferring to cut inside will put him against Gomez's stronger foot.

That the league did Liverpool no favors with the fixture list to start the season has been mentioned time and time again, and we'll still mention it again anyway. This is not a match Liverpool need so early in the season, and after an international break as well.

But Liverpool have to play the hand they've been dealt. And the same can be said for United, nearly as unimpressive as Liverpool to start the campaign. Neither side's scored with any regularity in this short season, but both have been decent-to-good defensively. Well, Liverpool were for the first three matches, but the fourth is far fresher in the memory.

That loss to West Ham rendered the first three matches, and the positivity from them, nearly moot. We're right back to where we were last May following the losses to Palace and Stoke, at each other's throats with few signs of positivity, a seemingly unbalanced squad, Rodgers under the gun already. Which isn't wholly fair, but also kinda is.

There's no better way to wash that loss against West Ham out of your mouth than to get one over on your rivals on their ground.

31 August 2015

Visualized: Liverpool 0-3 West Ham

Previous Match Infographics: Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.



That really couldn't have gone worse.

A complete inability to break down a packed defense. No width in attack, no patience in attack, no competence in attack. Narrow build-up play coupled with a marked-into-isolation lone striker. Horrific shot accuracy both inside and outside (usually outside) the box, with Lovren's 35-yard worm burner the lone shot on-target from 13 attempts.

An early goal conceded, something Liverpool's rarely able to come back from. A previously solid defense pillaged on the counter-attack, with Liverpool defenders featuring in each of West Ham's goals: one weak clearing header, one unfathomable error, a couple of unlucky ricochets.

A daft red card for Liverpool's most important player, which completely ruined any minuscule chance of getting back into the game, rendering Rodgers' attempted changes all but moot.

You name it, it went wrong: the starting XI, the strategy, the style, the substance, the substitutions. At least no one got injured? All of the optimism – minor though it may have been – wholly wiped away.

This is the first time Liverpool's had to face a well and truly parked bus. And Liverpool utterly failed against it. Liverpool's other home match, against Bournemouth, could have gone in a similar manner, but Bournemouth failed to score with their early flurry (thanks, ref!) and Liverpool's 26th minute set play goal (thanks, ref!) meant that they'd have to come out a bit more, with Liverpool unlucky not to add to its lead.

That obviously didn't happen against West Ham.



There wasn't any penetration into West Ham's box until the final 10-15 minutes, with the game all but over. West Ham easily tackled, intercepted. blocked, or cleared when Liverpool had the ball in the final third. Liverpool ran headlong into a wall, failed, and kept trying to run through that wall in the same manner with the same reward. None. No reward.

Sure, average position over 90 minutes can be a bit of a lie, but Coutinho, Milner, Benteke, Firmino, and Can's average positions on Saturday were all basically atop each other.

And, of course, Liverpool's shooting was, once again, a low water mark. One shot on-target, speculative at best, from 13. Just four shots from inside the box, three of those four in the final 10 minutes. In 90 minutes, albeit playing 40 or so with 10 men, Liverpool put together just three noteworthy attacking sequences: Firmino's single-handed near-moment of magic early on, Milner firing wide from Ings' layoff of Moreno's cross, and Lovren whiffing on Benteke's well-placed knockdown of Milner's corner.

To say there was a dearth of final third creativity would be putting it kindly.

Ideally, Liverpool can at least take a few lessons from this. No more half measures, Liverpool. You want your fullback to provide width in attack? Then, for all his positives, it's not Joe Gomez. You want to protect Dejan Lovren from having to come wide, where his errors almost always come from? Then don't send Joe Gomez bombing forward at every opportunity. Or don't play Dejan Lovren, but that's a different debate. West Ham knew where Liverpool's weaknesses would lie, and clearly exploited them. It's no coincidence all three goals came down that flank.

Also, you want your midfield to play piercing passes to break West Ham's solid lines? Then that midfield probably isn't Lucas-Can-Milner. You need to pull deep defenders out of position? Maybe don't play with both Coutinho and Firmino cutting inside and Benteke failing to pull center-backs into the channels.

I understand wanting to reward players for the previous performance, but what worked at Arsenal won't often work against West Ham. You're going to need genuine width in attack. You're probably not going to need a midfield that presses and runs well but won't unlock many defenses. Liverpool weren't helped with injuries – both Lallana and Henderson would have improved the situation – and hindsight's 20-20, but you'd think a front six of Milner, Can, Coutinho; Firmino, Benteke, Ibe would have been a better plan. Or going with two strikers; down to 10 men, Liverpool still struggled to do much in attack after Ings came on, but his inclusion was still a positive change.

The major concern is that this isn't a new experience. Sure, it's a new season, with a lot of new players, but this was a film we'd often seen last season: 1-3 at West Ham, 1-3 home and away against Crystal Palace, 1-6 at Stoke, 0-1 against Villa, 0-1 at Hull and Newcastle, etc. Saturday wasn't just a one-off; glaring weaknesses demonstrated time and time again cropped up for the first time this season. The feeble attack, the mistakes in defense, the vulnerability on counter-attacks, etc.

Thankfully, it's still early, and Liverpool aren't the only underperforming side; Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal, and United all have issues of their own. But – and I'm pretty sure this has been written before – multiple things still need vast improvement. And quickly.

29 August 2015

Liverpool 0-3 West Ham

\Goals:
Lanzini 3'
Noble 29'
Sakho 90+2'

Welcome back, Liverpool. That was a short-lived renaissance, and all of a sudden we're back to defensive idiocy and a dearth of attacking creativity. You know, the issues that completely ruined the last campaign.

Pick your analogy: last season's 1-3 loss at Upton Park in September or Arsenal's 0-2 loss to West Ham on opening day. Either works. You've seen this film before.

Liverpool's game plan destroyed within three minutes thanks to shoddy defending, a complete inability to break down a happy-to-sit-deep defense, a second first-half goal conceded because of a horrific defensive error from Lovren. Liverpool tried to stop the rot by switching to 3-4-2-1 at halftime, and it didn't look like helping, but Coutinho's second yellow in the 52nd minute ensured there'd be no comeback.

So West Ham continued to sit back and Liverpool continued to do nothing worth noting. Noble's 78th minute dismissal (which'll assuredly and rightly be overturned) would have been a microscopic ray of optimism had Liverpool shown any capability of taking advantage, but the only "highlight" in the final 15 minutes was a third goal conceded because of more defensive ineptitude, a mix-up between Moreno and Lovren allowing Sakho in on goal in injury time.

Liverpool married this season's inability to get the attack going, limited to hoping Benteke or Coutinho or Firmino could pull a rabbit from the hat (which, admittedly Firmino almost did in the 9th minute with a wicked shot off the goal post), with last season's abysmal defending. That's a bad combination, and this was a bad a performance as possible. With a bit more ambition, West Ham could have pulled a Stoke, could have absolutely taken Liverpool to the woodshed.

One shot on-target from Liverpool, a 35-yard worm burner from Lovren in the 55th minute, from 13 mostly speculative efforts. Literally no idea how to break down a packed defense, something they hadn't really seen yet this season. Often exposed on the counter, and back to making the individual mistakes which had ruined so many matches last season.

And it all happened against a West Ham missing two key players through suspension, three strikers through injury, and who hadn't won at Anfield since 1963. This was only the second time Liverpool have lost a Premier League game at Anfield by three goals, the other to runaway league winners Chelsea in October 2005. I'm gonna go out on a limb and suggest that Chelsea side was a bit better than this West Ham side.

Not wanting to change the lineup after a reasonable performance at Arsenal is understandable. But needing Joe Gomez to be an attacking fullback, often leaving Lovren exposed, probably isn't the best idea. Playing Lucas in midfield in a match where you'll dominate possession and need to create chances in compressed spaces, while also needing pace to defend against counter-attacks, probably isn't the best idea. And once Coutinho went off, while he hadn't created much to that point anyway, Liverpool had no one capable of breaking the malaise on their own.

So maybe one good half of football from four matches isn't enough progress. One good goal scored and two good opposition goals luckily chalked off isn't enough progress. But, seemingly expecting to take the next step and wallop a side that'd conceded six in the last two matches, Liverpool also went away from the strategy which had earned them seven points from the first three matches: a strategy built first and foremost on defensive solidity and patience in attack.

Someone (read: Rodgers) got the vapors from Liverpool's first half performance at Arsenal. But – and, yes, hindsight's 20-20 – doing it against a West Ham side set up to sit deep and counter away from home, is very different from doing it against an open Arsenal who had to deploy a makeshift defense. It was too soon, and obviously, Liverpool aren't there yet. Nowhere close.

And now, one of those much-loved early season international breaks, needing to fix multiple problems with most first team players away with their countries. And then, a a trip to Manchester United without Liverpool's best and most important player.

It certainly doesn't take long for optimism to fully dissipate, does it?

28 August 2015

Liverpool v West Ham 08.29.15

10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Live Extra

Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (h) 01.31.15
1-3 West Ham (a) 09.20.14
2-1 Liverpool (a) 04.06.14
4-1 Liverpool (h) 12.07.13

Last matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 Arsenal (a); 1-0 Bournemouth; 1-0 Stoke (a)
West Ham: 3-4 Bournemouth (h); 1-2 Leicester (h); 2-0 Arsenal (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke, Coutinho 1
West Ham: Kouyate 2; Maiga, Noble, Payet, Zarate 1

Referee: Kevin Friend

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Lovren Gomez
Lucas
Milner Can
Firmino Benteke Coutinho

The only question, at least in regards to the Liverpool XI, seems whether Henderson's available.

If not, same as against Arsenal. If he is, does he replace Lucas or Can? The answer's probably "Lucas" but Can is a more like-for-like swap, the Henderson-Milner-Can midfield not showing the same balance, the same division of responsibilities we saw to better effect against Arsenal.

But chances are that Henderson's protected, on the bench at best because Liverpool do not need to him to further aggravate that foot injury and because Liverpool were fairly decent on Monday, at least in midfield and defense. And otherwise, keep on keeping on: a continued resilience in defense. Increased coordination in both midfield and attack, especially the already promising link between Benteke and Coutinho. Liverpool, at home against a West Ham side coming off of losses to Leicester and Bournemouth, should see a lot more of the ball, and have more chances to get its still-stumbling attack started.

And they'll be against a West Ham side in a bit of disarray. Both Adrian and Carl Jenkinson are suspended for red cards incurred in the last two matches. Three strikers – Zarate, Valencia, and Carroll – are out injured, while Sakho's questionable but likely to play if at all possible. Kevin Nolan, who started last Saturday, was released yesterday. There has been a lot of turnover under new manager Slaven Bilic, a sea change from the often-annoying Allardyce Era.

Which means the XI will look something like Randolph; Reid, Tomkins, Ogbonna, Cresswell; Kouyate, Obiang, Noble; Payet, Sakho, Jarvis. There are questions at right-back – Tomkins and Reid, or whoever else they deploy there, are not right-backs; questions at striker; and questions on the left – Jarvis was out of favor both last season and the start of this, although new signing Lanzani could also make his first league start.

West Ham are seriously lacking in options up front. They're trying to sign either Matri – made available on loan because of Balotelli's arrival at AC Milan – and/or Adebayor, but neither will be done in time for Saturday's match. If Sakho's absent, West Ham will have to start Maïga – who's been rumored to be sold all summer – up front, the only available first-team striker.

Nonetheless, Liverpool – despite the strong defensive start – can still find ways to concede against the most impotent of attacks, and fail to score against the most makeshift of defenses. Because Liverpool. I'm sure you remember a "confident" Liverpool conceding from both a set play and a counter-attack within the first ten minutes when these sides met a year ago. Payet has had an impressive start to the season, and that's a surprisingly strong and physical West Ham midfield that will challenge whomever Liverpool put out.

Liverpool have taken 10 points from its first four games just five times in the Premier League era: 2013-14, 2008-09, 2007-08, 1998-99, and 1994-95. I suspect you remember the last two times that happened, with Liverpool finishing second and challenging for the league to the bitter end. They haven't kept four consecutive league clean sheets since January-February 2011, when Dalglish took over as caretaker manager after Hodgson finally was fired.

At the same time, Liverpool haven't lost to West Ham at Anfield since 1963. West Ham are struggling to come to terms with a new manager, new signings, and new style, impressive against Arsenal on opening day, but fairly terrible in the two matches since, having also been knocked out of the Europa League by last season's fourth-best Romanian side.

With an international break imminent and Manchester United away to come after it, at home, against a side that's lost two consecutive matches while conceding six goals in the process, this is the match where Liverpool need to start to put things together. The first three matches have been acceptable, especially given what occurred last season, but now Liverpool needs to take the next step.

25 August 2015

Visualized: Liverpool 0-0 Arsenal

Previous Match Infographics: Bournemouth (h), Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.



(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

I'm still not sure how a match with 34 shots – 19 for Arsenal, 15 for Liverpool – finished scoreless. It was the first time Liverpool against Arsenal has finished scoreless since the 1998-1999 season. It was only the third clean sheet Liverpool's kept against Arsenal – at either ground, in any competition – since 2001. Three clean sheets in 38 matches. So, yeah, it was a bit unbelievable.

Sure, Liverpool were two amazing Cech saves, the crossbar, and/or Michael Oliver swallowing his whistle on two potential penalties away from a third consecutive 1-0 win, equalling the start to the memorable 2013-14 campaign. Or, Liverpool were another linesman's incorrect decision, the goal post, and five Mignolet saves away from a 0-1 loss, at best. Liverpool could have won it in the first half, could have lost it in the second.

Contentious decisions and wonderful saves aside, each team "won" a half. A draw certainly feels like the fair result, although I'm certain that Liverpool fans are much happier with a point apiece than Arsenal's are.



That is a dramatic disparity in shots. And it wasn't unexpected from Arsenal in the second half; we've seen that settled, dangerous attack put multiple sides to the sword, including the same front six in this fixture last season. But we've not seen that first half from Liverpool yet this season.

It wasn't as if Liverpool were firing from all angles and from distance. 11 of Liverpool's 15 shots – 10 of 11 in the first half – came from inside the box. 73.3%. That percentage was 50% at Stoke (including, admittedly, the match winner) and 44.4% against Bournemouth. Liverpool took a higher percentage of shots inside the box just twice last season: the 2-0 wins at Villa and against Newcastle, two sides who are very different than Arsenal.

Despite failing to score, it was arguably a better shooting performance than any of Liverpool's three previous matches at the Emirates under Rodgers: more shots, more shots inside the box, a higher shot accuracy. And if not for Petr Cech, it could easily have led to a Liverpool win at the Emirates for the first time in four seasons.

Little by little, Liverpool's revamped attack is finding its form.

That Liverpool were able to create that many shots – and surprisingly decent shots – with so little possession is also encouraging, a sign that the counter-attack which blitzed the league in 2013-14 but wholly disappeared in 2014-15 might be close to returning. It'll almost certainly never be as potent as it was with Luis Suarez, but it's a crucial option to have, and frequently Liverpool's best option for breaking down the opposition. Liverpool have never had less possession in a league match under Rodgers than they did yesterday. The previous low? 38.2% in a 2-2 draw at Arsenal in 2012-13. The more things change...

That Liverpool did it with such a young side is even more encouraging. The average age of the starting XI was 25.3; Skrtel was the only player older than 30; Skrtel, Milner, and Lucas the only players 28 or older; Coutinho, Firmino, Can, and Gomez all 23 or younger. Seven of Liverpool's 11 starters joined the club this summer or last summer. Liverpool's three subs were 19, 18, and 23 respectively.

Special mention need be made for the youngest of Liverpool's youngsters. While Arsenal primarily attacked down Liverpool's right, Joe "Event Horizon" Gomez still managed to lead Liverpool in both tackles and interceptions.



In Liverpool's first match, Gomez shied away from possession, attempting and completing vastly fewer passes than the other three defenders. He's led Liverpool's defense in passes attempted and completed in the last two matches, increasingly confident in possession as he acclimatizes with his new teammates. And, yes, it's still worth noting that he's playing out of position, a position he hadn't played until coming to Liverpool.

Joe Gomez has also been very, very good for Dejan Lovren. A much more defensive fullback than Moreno, Glen Johnson, or anyone else used on the left last season, he offers Lovren more protection, especially since he's much more inclined to tuck inside as he's right-footed. It's a lot like what Jon Flanagan did on that flank during the 2013-14 season. And yes, it's put more pressure on Liverpool's attackers, without the added width from fullback in the opposition half, but the positives in defense have very much outweighed the negatives in attack so far.

After last season's individual errors and general ineptitude, Liverpool needed its fullbacks to defend. Liverpool's very much gotten that through the first three matches, from both Gomez and Clyne, and that's been the main reason why Skrtel and Lovren look a completely different pairing.

From Liverpool's youngest player to one of Liverpool's few veterans. Lucas Leiva, playing for the first time this season, has rightfully come in for a fair amount of praise this morning, one of Liverpool's man of the match candidates along with Gomez, Mignolet, and Coutinho. This, from Zonal Marking, is an unsurprisingly thorough review of his performance.

Curmudgeon that I am and as much as I enjoy Lucas, his performance wasn't anywhere near the end all, be all. That Lucas only attempted 27 passes, completed just 18, helps demonstrate why he's not an option every match. Yesterday was probably the least he's been involved in possession as a starter since joining Liverpool, and I suspect it's as much a sign of Lucas' decline in certain regards as Liverpool's tactics.

I reckon this graphic sums up Lucas' performance well:



Yeah, that's a lot of passes from Mesut Özil. Not many of them go to a dangerous position, with just one key pass that wasn't a corner or a cross, a layoff to Cazorla for a very long-range and very off-target shot. Lucas also pressed surprisingly well, with three of his six successful tackles and two of his four interceptions in Arsenal's half.

Liverpool's midfield can be better. And Liverpool often bypassed midfield, a function of yesterday's arguably necessary match strategy. But Liverpool's midfield, with Can and Milner running and pressing and getting forward and Lucas sitting and splitting the center-backs, was better balanced than in the two previous matches.

Once again, it was a narrow Liverpool match that could have gone very differently. A different decision from different linesmen in consecutive weeks means that Liverpool potentially have a single point rather than four from the last two games. That's how tenuous this revolution has been.

But Liverpool on a nearly level footing with Arsenal, at the Emirates Stadium, is definitive progress. A third consecutive clean sheet, by hook or by crook – something which didn't happen in the league until March last season – is definitive progress. That the two away clean sheets came against sides that Liverpool conceded 10 (!!!) goals against last season – Liverpool's worst two losses of the season – is clearly definitive progress.

Liverpool are clearly improving, little by little. Liverpool have bettered the result from last season for the third consecutive match. Liverpool did it against an opponent who has historically given them fits, matching one of the preseason favorites for the title on their own ground.

Liverpool just need to keep this progression going.

23 August 2015

Liverpool at Arsenal 08.24.15

3pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-4 Arsenal (a) 04.04.15
2-2 (h) 12.21.14
1-2 Arsenal (a; FA Cup) 02.16.14
5-1 Liverpool (h) 02.08.14

Last matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Bournemouth; 1-0 Stoke (a)
Arsenal: 2-1 Palace (a); 0-2 West Ham (h); 1-0 Chelsea (n)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Benteke, Coutinho 1
Arsenal: Giroud 1

Referee: Michael Oliver

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Lovren Gomez
Can
Milner Coutinho
Ibe Benteke Lallana

It appears that Jordan Henderson will miss out, absent from training this week due to his foot injury. Henderson will be a major loss, but it's not as if Liverpool are without options.

Lucas *might* still exist, and could play as the deepest midfielder behind Can and Milner, but I suspect it'll be a straight swap, Can for Henderson, exactly what happened when Henderson had to go off against Bournemouth. Milner and Coutinho ahead of the deeper midfielder, Lallana and Ibe flanking Benteke.

Ideally, Henderson's fit and both Can and Firmino still come into the lineup, with both Lallana and Ibe making way, the 4-3-3 we're expecting to see when Liverpool are in full flow. Maybe Lallana's dropped for Firmino regardless: a more threatening attacker, a better presser when Arsenal's in possession. Maybe Liverpool, lacking in attack in the first two matches, revert to the diamond with Ings or Firmino partnering Benteke, and Coutinho, Can, Milner, and Lucas in midfield. But, again, I doubt it. Conservatism will remain Liverpool's modus operandi, at least for a little while longer.

Meanwhile, Arsenal are similarly predictable. It'll be 4-2-3-1. It'll almost certainly be Cech; Bellerin, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal; Coquelin, Cazorla; Ramsey, Özil, Sanchez; Giroud. They're a settled side, quick, balanced, versatile, and on their day, irresistible in attack, as they were the last time they faced Liverpool. And that XI is almost the exact team which beat Liverpool 4-1 last April, with Cech for Ospina the only difference.

Liverpool that day were Mignolet; Can, Toure, Sakho; Henderson, Lucas, Allen, Moreno; Coutinho, Markovic; Sterling. At most, Liverpool will start four of those 11 players, more likely three, in a completely different formation. What a difference a little less than five months makes.

Rodgers spoke this week about "controlling the space" at the Emirates. And, unsurprisingly, it's led to jokes and jibes because Rodgers is such an easy target, but he's got a point. Liverpool's pressing, Liverpool's ability to deny Alexis, Özil, and Cazorla time and space, will be crucial. It's a bit simplistic, but when Liverpool won 5-1 at Anfield they pressed Arsenal into mistakes and ruthlessly exploited them on set plays and counter-attackers. When Arsenal won 4-1 at the Emirates in the last meeting, they pressed Liverpool into mistakes, and ruthlessly exploited them in the 10 minutes before halftime. Both home sides did well to deny space in their own half in those victories. Both home sides started as they meant to continue and coasted in the second half. Both home sides finished their chances when presented, when the opposition couldn't.

And similar happened in Arsenal's lone loss this season, disjointed and denied space in attack, conceding from a set play and a counter starting from an Arsenal error.

Easier said than done, but Liverpool will need to do that tomorrow, will need to be nearly perfect to come away with all three points tomorrow, to continue its winning streak into the teeth of this early fixture run, and all at an opponent's ground where they've won just once – in 2011-12, of all seasons – in the last 15 years.