Visualized: Liverpool 1-0 Bournemouth

Previous Match Infographics: Stoke (a)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.



(Nota Bene: Here's the formation diagram usually included in match reviews.)

Baby steps.

Liverpool won, again. Liverpool took 18 shots compared to last week's eight at Stoke, seven Danger Zone shots (including the goal) to last week's two. Had Coutinho (44'), Milner (55'), or Benteke (90') buried glorious chances, the result would have been much more emphatic. Liverpool displayed better interplay between the attackers, although, to be honest, there was nowhere to go but up.

Of course, just two of those 18 shots were on-target, both from Benteke. Liverpool's goal shouldn't have counted, Coutinho clearly offside and going for the ball. Liverpool were lucky that Bournemouth had a 5th-minute goal ruled out from – surprise! – a corner, although it seemed a pretty clear foul with Elphick climbing on Lovren.

Obviously there's still a fair bit of work to be done.

Christian Benteke Shots: 2 on-target [GOAL], 1 off-target
Other Liverpool Shots: 0 on-target, 10 off-target, 5 blocked.

Yikes.

Liverpool's 11.1% shot accuracy would have been third-worst last season, behind the 1-3 loss at Palace and 0-1 loss to Aston Villa. And, as I'm sure you remember, Liverpool had more than a few horrific shooting performances that season.

Coutinho was clearly the most profligate, with three off-target shots (including the one clear-cut chance) and five blocked shots, all five of the shots Liverpool had blocked. Since joining Liverpool, Coutinho's taken eight or more shots just three other times: 0-0 v West Brom last season, 4-1 v West Ham and 4-0 v Fulham in 2013-14. Bournemouth clearly wanted to deny the little magician space in the final third, and, for the most part, succeeding in doing so.

That he found the space to at least attempt eight shots is kind of a good thing, even if there's more than a whiff of "if not Suarez than no one" to it, and Coutinho is not Luis Suarez. That all four of Benteke's key passes – the most created by a single player in yesterday's match – went to Coutinho is a good thing, further proof that both are nearing the same page. But Liverpool still need its best and most important player to do more when in those positions.

Liverpool's fullbacks were very good yesterday, especially Nat King Clyne (the effect he's had on the defense is obviously), and Liverpool's defense did what it had to do, but for the most part, Liverpool can thank its marquee £32.5m summer signing for all three points yesterday.




We saw Benteke receive the ball higher up the pitch, in more dangerous positions. We saw more variance between long and short passes, a greater versatility in Liverpool's attacking style. Sure, some of this has to do with the difference in opposition and in venue, but it also seems a positive development.

All told, Liverpool were better than last week, although that should be the case in the second match compared to the first, against Bournemouth rather than at Stoke. And that was with continuing – albeit less – disconnect in midfield, and fairly uninspiring performances from both Lallana and Ibe.

Liverpool have won their first two league matches, something that's happened just four times since 2000, also doing so in 2002-03, 2008-09, and 2013-14. And I'm sure you remember that the latter two were Liverpool's two best seasons in recent memory. Liverpool have kept two clean sheets in the process; Liverpool didn't have two clean sheets in the league until October 25 last season. Liverpool have taken five more points than in last season's comparable fixtures, which saw that humiliating loss at Stoke and a home draw against the promoted Championship winners (2-2 v Leicester).

That Liverpool have started slowly, with a bunch of new players and something of a new system, is little surprise. That Liverpool have started slowly yet still won both matches can't be anything other than a positive.

So yes, there's an awful lot left to be desired. There's an awful long way to go. And it's going to get an awful lot harder in the next few weeks. But, despite some poor play and performances, some seemingly poor line-up and formation decisions, this is still about as good as we could have reasonably expected.

Liverpool v Bournemouth 08.17.15

3pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
3-1 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 12.17.14
2-0 Liverpool (a; FA Cup) 01.25.14
4-1 Liverrpol (h; FA Cup) 01.30.68
0-0 (a; FA Cup) 01.27.68

Last match:
Liverpool: 1-0 Stoke (a)
Bournemouth: 0-1 Villa (h)

Referee: Craig Pawson

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Lovren Gomez
Can
Henderson Milner
Ibe Benteke Coutinho

There won't be many, if any, changes from last Sunday's XI. Rodgers preached and practiced continuity during preseason, and I expect that'll remain the case for the time being.

That said, there should be at least one change based on Liverpool's performance a week ago. And there are two options for that one change. Either start with the midfield that finished the match at Stoke or start Bobby Firm. And either way, Adam Lallana should be the player that makes way.

Emre Can provides more midfield balance, a stronger platform to build from. Bobby Firm – in theory, admittedly, as we've seen little of the player – provides more attacking explosiveness and pressing. Liverpool could do with either of those abilities. Maybe both changes occur, both Ibe and Lallana replaced (at this point of his career, I still think Ibe's more useful as a substitute), the exact XI which finished the match at Stoke, but that seems a bridge too far at this stage of the season.

Tomorrow will help answer the question, "Was Liverpool's conservatism at Stoke because of the opponent or because Rodgers feels it's the best way for the new Liverpool to acclimatize or because Liverpool's just not very good right now?" And I suspect the answer is "Yes."

Liverpool, at Anfield, against a promoted side, have to be more threatening, but by how great a degree remains to be seen. Last Sunday was nearly a low-water mark as far as attacking output goes, a dire affair rescued by the magical right foot of Coutinho. But Liverpool's focus was on not conceding, which was wholly explainable given what had gone on the previous time Liverpool travelled to Stoke. Safety first. There's no historical trauma in this fixture, but I still suspect we'll see similar tomorrow, a more threatening Liverpool at home, but not as threatening as we'd expect or like. In August, all that matters is getting points on the board. I don't want to encourage the parallel, because this is a very different, not-as-good side, but it's the same thought process that was behind the start of 2013-14.

At least Bournemouth isn't an unknown quantity. Liverpool have had rather straightforward ties against the club in both domestic cup competitions in the last two seasons. Of course, this will be a different predicament; cup competitions were a bonus for both clubs, this is the league.

Bournemouth's XI will look a lot like last week's against Aston Villa, and a fair bit like their recent matches against Liverpool. Boruc; Francis, Elphick, Cook, Daniels; Ritchie, Gosling, Surman, Pugh; King; Wilson. Maybe new signing Lee Tomlin makes his debut in place of Josh King. Maybe record signing Tyrone Mings comes in at center- or left-back. Maybe Christian Atsu – on loan from Chelsea, missing last week through injury – or Max Gradel start on the flanks, but I suspect both will be potential attacking changes used from the bench, if at all. And that's about all the possible changes. Bournemouth, like so many other promoted sides, have a fairly small squad to choose from.

Last week's match against Aston Villa would have proceeded rather differently had Bournemouth taken one of their many first-half chances, but Gosling missed his, Pugh's and Wilson's were saved. Had it been Liverpool, you'd expect at least one of those to go in because, well, Liverpool. I also can't help but focus on Callum Wilson, a player who won 11 (!!!) penalties last season, more than double anyone else in England.

Like Rodgers was at Swansea, Eddie Howe is both praised and kind of patronized in the same measure, a young manager lauded for his unfashionable side's attacking football: dominating possession, creating chances. As they did all of last season in the Championship, and as they did against Villa. But Bournemouth couldn't convert possession into goals last week, couldn't take those chances, and succumbed 0-1 to a towering header from a corner. Any of this sounding familiar, Liverpool fans?

More than enough pixels and ink have been spilled about Liverpool's difficult start to the season. These matches, those at home, those Liverpool are "expected" to win, are where Liverpool need to shine. Last week was a start, a pleasing if also bare minimum start, but a start nonetheless. Now Liverpool need to take the next step.

---
Meta: I suspect most of you remember from previous seasons, but as tomorrow's a weekday match (as is next week's), there won't be an immediate match review because work. There will be the usual, probably-slightly-longer, match infographic up on Tuesday morning though.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-0 Stoke

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.



Rodgers set his team up to win 1-0, and succeeded. Yes, that success was wholly down to a wonder strike from Philippe Coutinho, but the point still stands. Liverpool played for a 1-0 and got that 1-0, by hook or by crook, by an unbelievable goal. That's not something we've often seen Liverpool capable of during Rodgers' tenure.

Liverpool simply were not going to let last May happen again.

Credit for that goes to Liverpool's midfield and defense, both unbalanced, discordant, and irreparably broken in the last meeting. Four of Stoke's goals that day came down Liverpool's flanks, Emre Can the notable scapegoat on the right, Alberto Moreno not much better on the left. The other two saw Stoke players – N'Zonzi, Diouf – break through Liverpool's midfield through pressing and counter-attacks.

That didn't happen yesterday, with two debutant fullbacks – including an 18-year-old who'd never played left-back at first-team level – and a reshuffled midfield.

Sure, it's a different match if Stoke convert one of their two good first half chances, both down Liverpool's left, but Adam whiffed on a difficult shot when the ball deflected to him in the 8th minute, and Glen Johnson skied a left-footed effort in the 35th after Skrtel cleared out of the six-yard box and Clyne blocked Affelay's attempt. Gomez, caught out by both, demonstrably improved as the match went on. Meanwhile, Nat King Clyne was wholly unthreatened down the other flank, even winning a crucial aerial duel – something he rarely attempts – in front of Diouf less than two minutes before Liverpool's winner.

Mame Biram Diouf, with two goals and two assists the last time these sides met, was especially irrelevant, limited to one harmless on-target shot from distance and one key pass layoff for a harmless Charlie Adam off-target shot from distance. Which is why Lovren, of all players, has been praised to the hilt today, outstanding when one-on-one with the striker.

That said, there are – of course – still very valid concerns about Liverpool's attack. Liverpool took just eight shots, fewer than all but three matches last season (at Newcastle, at Southampton, v United), with just two from the Danger Zone. Ibe found little space down the right, well- and closely-marked by Stoke defenders, often holding onto the ball too long and running into trouble. Lallana did next to nothing, although to be fair, Gomez did need more protection than Clyne on that side. Benteke had moments of promise linking up with other players, but struggled to make things happen in the final third, limited to just one threatening-but-blocked shot. If not Coutinho, seemingly no one.

Did Liverpool's attack struggle because of its unfamiliarity, not quite clicking because of all the new players and style? Did Liverpool's attack struggle because the focus was (rightly) on remaining secure? Are there just still structural problems in Liverpool's attack?

Well, yes, to probably all of that. It is worth noting that things got better when Lallana made way for Can, making a better base to build from in midfield, with both Henderson and Milner now getting forward, pressing more intensely (especially after Firmino came on), while Coutinho remained influential from the left.

One match doesn't make a season at all, not in praising Liverpool's defense or condemning Liverpool's attack. It obviously wasn't brilliant – in fact, it was rather boring, and that's putting it nicely – but it's a still the right start.

Liverpool 1-0 Stoke

Goals:
Coutinho 86'

Your star player has to win you the games where you don't play especially well. And Philippe Coutinho did that today.

Just like Brendan Rodgers drew it up, I'm sure.

Look, your concerns are all valid. Liverpool weren't very good. Liverpool's first three shots, the only three in the first half, were all blocked. Liverpool's first shot on-target didn't come until the 63rd, from Dejan Lovren of all players.

Liverpool's quasi 4-3-3, quasi 4-2-3-1 formation, with Henderson usually at the base but also trying to join infrequent attacks, left Benteke isolated, with Ibe often well-marked and Lallana invisible. Liverpool's two new fullbacks were restrained, clearly more focused on solidifying the defense than adding to the attack. It made for a fairly dire opening hour.

This side, for all the new players, clearly remembers the last trip to Stoke. Brendan Rodgers clearly remembers the last trip to Stoke.

Liverpool's priority was to keep it tight, to eliminate the mistakes and Stoke chances which plagued last May's massacre. Maybe sneak a goal, but otherwise keep it level for an hour before gradually opening up the throttle. And that's exactly what happened.

Sure, Stoke had a couple of first half chances, chances better than anything Liverpool created, both cutbacks coming from debutant Joe Gomez's (and Dejan Lovren's) flank. But Adam mis-kicked his opportunity, Glen Johnson skied his. It's about time they started earning all those Liverpool paychecks. So, yes, Liverpool got a little lucky, but on the whole, Liverpool did actually defend well, even on set plays.

The pattern remained the same until just after the hour mark, when Emre Can replaced Lallana. It wasn't the expected Firmino substitution - that'd come 15 minutes later - but Liverpool duly improved because the set-up improved: a more orthodox 4-3-3 with Can holding, allowing both Milner and Henderson to join the attack, Coutinho replacing the irrelevant Lallana on the left.

It didn't immediately result in good chances - Benteke's effort blocked, Skrtel straight at Butland from a set play, Coutinho nowhere close from distance, a couple of openings missed because of a poor final pass - but, for the first time, Liverpool actually looked the better side. Stoke had an immediate set-up play opportunity following the substitution, Adam's deep free kick through everyone, requiring a brilliant save from Mignolet, but otherwise, the home side asked few questions.

Regardless, it looked like the game would ebb away, a deserved but unimpressive 0-0 draw. Until Coutinho happened. O Mágico. It's gonna be hard to top the first goal of the season as the best goal of the season.

It's beyond cliché, but three points is three points is three points. Especially in the first game of the season. Especially at the Britannia, where Liverpool's now won two league matches in eight attempts since Stoke's promotion in 2008-09. Two wins (the other, you may remember, in 2013-14), two draws, and four losses. Especially after last May's meeting.

Would I have preferred a more-attacking Liverpool, a Liverpool that did more to try to win the game? Absolutely. Football should be fun, even if it's often not. Liverpool's problems in attack, especially in the first half, were far too reminiscent of last season's struggles.

But Liverpool's caution was understandable. Liverpool's dissonance in attack, with so many new players, was understandable.

All told, this match looked an awful lot like the preseason matches, albeit against better competition. That admittedly won't be enough to achieve this season's goals. But it'll do for now.

Liverpool at Stoke 08.09.15

11am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-6 Stoke (a) 05.24.15
1-0 Liverpool (h) 11.29.14
5-3 Liverpool (a) 01.12.14
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.17.13

Last three preseason matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Swindon (a); 2-0 HJK (a); 1-1 Malaysia (a)
Stoke: 0-3 Porto (a); 1-2 Köln (a); 0-2 Brentford (a)

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Who, coincidentally, was in charge of the 1-6 loss at Stoke last May. Coincidentally.

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Skrtel Lovren Gomez
Henderson
Coutinho Milner
Ibe Benteke Lallana

I can't decide whether returning to the scene of the crime as soon as possible is healthy or harmful. Psychologists suggest facing your fears helps you get over those fears, but I think I'd prefer a few confidence-building fixtures before the Britannia PTSD.

At the least, Liverpool will get an immediate chance to prove this season will be different than the last.

Sunday's Liverpool side should look an awful lot like the one we saw last Saturday at HJK Helsinki, but with Benteke in place of Ings. Kind of 4-2-3-1, kind of 4-3-3, depending on how deep Henderson sits. Just like throughout preseason.

Maybe Firmino gets thrown into the deep end as well, but I suspect he'll be brought along more slowly – relatively speaking – used off the bench if at all. Maybe Lucas starts as the deepest midfielder, a more orthodox 4-3-3, with one of Ibe or Lallana left out. Maybe all the noise about Gomez starting over Moreno is just noise. Maybe Rodgers comes to his sense and picks Sakho rather than Lovren. But, again, I doubt it.

Liverpool need to start this season quickly, start this season well. It's why we've seen such a settled side in preseason. And Sunday's side will look a lot like those preseason sides.

Just like Liverpool, Stoke's XI will be a bit different than last May's. Not as different as Liverpool's, but Hughes has added a few impressive players: Joselu and Affelay in attack, Wollscheid and Glen Johnson in defense, van Ginkel on loan from Chelsea in midfield. Bojan and Sidwell are fit again after missing the previous meeting. And Stoke already had a reasonably competent attack in Diouf, Crouch, Arnautovic, Odemwingie, and Walters. Mark Hughes is building a surprisingly decent side, one that looks more than capable of challenging for a place in Europe.

I won't pretend to have watched a single second of Stoke's preseason, so guessing at their XI is very much a guess, but I suspect that – again, like Liverpool – it'll be a mix of last season's players and a few of the new signings. Something like Butland; Johnson, Wollscheid, Muniesa, Pieters; Sidwell, van Ginkel; Walters, Adam, Affelay; Diouf.

Joselu could start up front, in place of Diouf or with Diouf on the flank. Bojan or Arnatovic could feature instead of Affelay. Ireland in place of Adam, or pushing Adam deeper in midfield in place of van Ginkel or Sidwell. Stoke actually have a plethora of options. Ryan Shawcross is injured, meaning Stoke's center-backs will be two from Wollscheid, Cameron, Muniesa, and Marc Wilson – and I've no idea which two – while Arnautovic and Wilson will undergo late fitness tests.

Fair warning: for all his faults, Glen Johnson loves scoring against his former clubs. As does Charlie Adam. And Peter Crouch. Sigh. We really could have picked a better match to start the campaign with, Premier League.

But the season is what it is. Yes, yes, one match doesn't make a season, especially the first match, but you can't help take overarching narratives from this one contest. Not after last May's massacre. And it ain't getting any easier after this fixture.

Welcome back, Liverpool.

Liverpool 2015-16 Season Preview

The less said about last season, the better. In fact, it can be summed up in just one word. Goals.

Liverpool scored 52 league goals, barely half of the previous season's total, after selling Suarez and losing Sturridge for the majority of the campaign. That goals total was the worst since 47 in Dalglish's 2011-12 horror season, and it was only the third time since 2000 that Liverpool scored 52 or fewer.

Liverpool's +4 goal difference was the joint-worst of the Premier League era, equalling the 1993-94 campaign which saw Liverpool finish 8th and fire Graeme Souness.

Liverpool's top scorer in the league had all of nine goals, four of which were penalties, one a direct free kick. That player's now plying his trade in MLS. You may have heard of him. The second highest total was scored by a 20-year-old who's now at Manchester City.

Liverpool scored 49 fewer goals than in 2013-14, but only took 61 fewer shots, created only 53 fewer chances.

From:


To:


Shooting accuracy was a problem. Shot location was a problem. Goal conversion was a problem. Slow build-up and slow attacks allowing defenders to get into position to block shots was a problem. And it seemed further proof that 2013-14 was a Suarez- and Sturridge-led aberration.

Fancy Stats (via Michael Caley):
TSR (Total Shots Ratio): 3rd
xG (Expected Goals): 5th
xGA (Expected Goals Against): 5th
xGR (Expected Goals For/Against): 5th

So, yes, Liverpool's shooting was pretty bad, but Liverpool were pretty much the fifth-best side according to the favored fancy stats. And Liverpool were in fifth prior to the last day's humiliation.

But that still wasn't good enough.

And it doesn't necessarily jibe with my memory of the season. A season that started badly and continued badly – a post-World Cup hangover combined with the need to bed in eight new players, compete in four competitions, and deal with the departure of Liverpool's top scorer and an injury to Liverpool's second-best scorer – but eventually got better thanks to the mid-season switch to 3-4-3. But just when you thought Liverpool had all the answers, someone changed the questions. And the side collapsed during the run-in, climaxing with a 1-6 loss at Stoke, Liverpool's worst defeat in 52 years.

Sure, it's a good thing that Liverpool were fairly terrible and still in the race for fourth until the final month, but the play was often a bad thing.

How are Liverpool going to fix these issues?


Summer business

In:
Christian Benteke (£32.5m)
Roberto Firmino (£29m)
Nathaniel Clyne (£12.5m)
Joe Gomez (£3.5m)
Danny Ings (TBD by tribunal)
James Milner (free)
Adam Bogdan (free)

Out:
Raheem Sterling (£49m)
Iago Aspas (£4.4m)
Sebastian Coates (£4m)
Rickie Lambert (£3m)
Steven Gerrard (free)
Glen Johnson (free)

Total In: ~£82.5-87.5m (depending on Ings' fee)
Total Out: ~£60.4m (and hopefully soon to include paltry sums for Enrique, Borini, and Balotelli)

Despite the big names and fees, that's not a huge net spend thanks to Sterling, made even narrower when factoring in the wages both Gerrard and Johnson were on. But the plan seems fairly clear.

Buy goals. That's the plan. That always needed to be the plan, and it's an obvious plan. Also, an experienced midfielder to replace Gerrard in Milner, Clyne to replace Johnson, and the usual youth prospects in Gomez and Ings, but mostly goals. Benteke, Firmino, Ings, plus Origi after last season's loan at Lille. But all except Milner are 24 or younger; FSG wouldn't have it any other way, and it makes sense given the market and Liverpool's financial powers.

Whether or not Benteke as the centerpiece – an aerially dominant target-man focal point – is the correct move has been a summer-long debate. And it'll continue to be so; his performance, more than any other summer signing, will most likely set the tone for the season. But it's not as if the European market's overflowing with available proven strikers this summer and holy wow did you see his goal last Sunday? Let's have more of that.

Liverpool seemingly bought well, even if the headline fees were higher than expected. But for the second summer in a row, Liverpool blew everything up again.


Continuity



There are a handful of players not included in the above graphic. Enrique (96 appearances), Borini (38), and Balotelli (28) because their sales are apparently imminent; Wisdom (22), Luis Alberto (12), and Williams (1) because they're on loan; and Sinclair (3), Yesil (2) and Ilori (0) because who knows what's going on with them and I wouldn't be surprised if none see first-team minutes this season. But aside from Enrique, those players barely make dents in an already sparse appearances total.

Most notably, there are just four players who predate Brendan Rodgers' tenure: Martin Skrtel, Lucas Leiva, Jon Flanagan and Jordan Henderson. Well, again, five if you count Jose Enrique, but come on, no one counts Jose Enrique. And that's it. Those five players are the only ones who've seen Liverpool lift a trophy: the League Cup in 2011-12, with only Skrtel, Henderson, and Enrique on the pitch for the final.

Just four players who've made more than 100 appearances for Liverpool. Just seven who've made more than 50. And that's all competitions, not just the league. 14 first-team players either signed or brought up from the academy in the last 14 months.

The total number of Liverpool appearances for the above list of 26 players is just 11 more appearances than Carragher and Gerrard made in their Liverpool careers.

For the second-straight season, there is a startling lack of continuity in the side, a startling lack of institutional memory in the side, made even more dramatic by the inevitable (and necessary) departures of Gerrard and Johnson.


Key Players

• Henderson: Henderson has some very large boots to fill. Not necessarily on the pitch, where he's been one of Liverpool's better players for a couple of seasons now, but off it. He's Liverpool's first new captain in more than a decade. At all of 25 years old, he's Liverpool's third-most capped player. He is expected to be a leader, both in the dressing room and on the field. And, like Liverpool as a whole, where he needs to improve the most is in front of goal.

• Coutinho: One of Liverpool's lone bright spots in attack last season, he'll continue to be the hub of most of what's good, charged with setting up Liverpool's two new stars and Sturridge when he returns. Like Henderson, he's necessarily experienced beyond his age, one of Liverpool's veterans at all of 23-years-old. And chances are, if Liverpool maintain the formation we've seen so far, he'll have to do it from a wide position, at least in name, rather than his preferred central berth.

• Benteke: It's not fair to saddle him with constant references to his fee or Liverpool's most expensive transfer, but it's going to happen. He's the main man now, seemingly Liverpool's top priority all summer long. He's simply got to justify that. Because, as you may have heard, Liverpool desperately need goals from somewhere.

• Sturridge: Can he get fit and stay fit? Because if he can, this is a very, very different team.

Henderson aside, those are all attackers. It's not as if Liverpool's defense was blame-free last season (*glares at Lovren* *glares at Skrtel* *glares at Moreno* *glares back at Lovren*). But it was arguably Liverpool's best defensive season under Rodgers, conceding just 1.10 goals in all competitions, albeit rising to 1.26 in the league. Which was at least still better than the 1.32 conceded per league match in 2013-14. Liverpool conceded 47 league goals last season, 50 in 2013-14, and 43 in 2012-13. We pretty much know what's going to happen at the back.

Liverpool's success will be determined by Liverpool's attack: whether or not that attack improves enough, whether or not that attack improves at all. And how quickly that attack settles into place.


The First Choice XI



We've seen a little bit of the diamond and a little bit of the 4-2-3-1 in preseason, but 4-3-3 has been Rodgers' preferred formation. Which isn't necessarily a surprise; it's seemingly always been his preferred formation, forced into changes in previous seasons by injuries or poor form. And it's not difficult to see how Liverpool's current personnel fit into that formation. Benteke or Sturridge or Ings or Origi up front; two from Coutinho, Firmino, Lallana, and Ibe out wide; three from Henderson, Milner, Allen, Can, and Lucas in midfield; Clyne and Moreno or Gomez at fullback; Skrtel and Lovren or Sakho in defense.

With those additions, Liverpool have more firepower up front than last season. With Milner (and more time for Emre Can in his preferred position), Liverpool are more dynamic in midfield. Clyne's certainly an upgrade on Johnson/Manquillo/Can, but for the most part, the defense remains the defense, more reliant on eliminating the individual mistakes which cost Liverpool both goals and points last season.

From front to back, it's a stronger side than last season. And it's a deeper side, two or three reasonable options at every position, ideally capable of competing in both the league and Europe.

But that might not be the first choice XI when Sturridge is fit.

If both Benteke and Sturridge are available, that firepower seemingly demands a diamond, a formation that'd see some favored players left out, but one that also fits with the talents of Firmino, Coutinho, Lallana, Milner, and Henderson, among others.

Nor is it out of the question to see Sturridge ostensibly on the right of a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 with Benteke central, a formation we sometimes saw with Suarez in the second half of 2012-13 and first half of 2013-14.



Once again, Liverpool have options. Brendan Rodgers loves options.


Start As You Mean To Finish

But options can be both a good and bad thing.

Having options didn't work out so well at the start of the 2012-13 and 2014-15 campaigns. A new manager not wholly familiar with his (not especially good) squad in the former, an attempt to replace Suarez (and, for the majority of the time, Sturridge) while getting eight new players settled in the latter. It took months for Rodgers to find some semblance of consistency, some semblance of form, and a preferred formation. It's arguable that Liverpool spent all of last season looking for a preferred formation without finding it.

Liverpool doesn't have that luxury this season. Liverpool has very little margin for error this season. Not with this start to this season, its first seven away matches against Stoke (*gulp*), Arsenal, United, Everton, Tottenham, and Chelsea, and Manchester City. I suspect it's why we've seen a surprisingly settled lineup during preseason. Brendan Rodgers has very little margin for error.

As This is Anfield pointed out yesterday, when Liverpool start well, the season usually goes well. When Liverpool start poorly, Liverpool usually find it difficult to make up the gap. It is far easier to maintain momentum than stumble upon midseason form.



And with the Europa League starting on September 17 – incidentally, after Liverpool's fifth league match – it'll become a lot harder to make up any lost ground.

This summer has to be different from last summer. Or else Brendan Rodgers won't be around to see if the third rebuild's the charm.


So, Where Will Liverpool Finish?

Four teams look much better than Liverpool. Chances are that Chelsea and City will finish first and second, again, although City certainly didn't finish all that impressively and they've only added Fabian Delph and some lad named Raheem Sterling. It's easy to see a settled Arsenal breaking into that duopoly, but it'd also be very Arsenal if they were plagued by injuries and fell back. Manchester United could continue to improve under van Gaal – Depay's an incredibly frightening signing – or could implode under van Gaal because van Gaal.

Which leaves Liverpool hoping that its rivals fail as much as Liverpool hope to succeed. Which is never a promising starting point, but the league is what the league is.

Could Liverpool finish fourth? Yeah, maybe, although I wouldn't bet any significant sum on it. Could Liverpool improve on last season's morass and still finish fifth or even sixth? Yeah, easily.

The league is what the league is. Sure, there's always a surprise or two, but it's not often that surprise comes at the top of the table. And Liverpool currently look like the fifth strongest team in the league.

It's all well and good to demand fourth. Liverpool look to be stronger and more settled than last season, Liverpool bought good players, things have to get better. And chances are, they will. But rebuilds take time. A squad coalescing usually takes time. Catching up to the more established, richer Top 4 usually takes time.

Brendan Rodgers may not have that time.

On Christian Benteke

The transfer we all suspected (and feared, and complained) was inevitable finally becomes inevitable.

It seems most have finally come around to the transfer, or at least come to terms with it, but I'm sure you've seen the frantic condemnation and hand-wringing all the same.

Let's just get it all out of the way now.

"£32.5m????"

"Why didn't Liverpool sign Lacazette/Aubameyang/Vietto/Reus?"

"He only scores from crosses, Liverpool never cross!"

"Mid-table over-priced Premier League signing, just like Ings, Milner, Clyne, Lallana, etc."

"blah blah blah Andy Carroll!!!!!!!!!! blah blah blah."

To which I feel obliged to respond:

- Transfer prices have skyrocketed this summer thanks to the massive amount of money in the league, but yeah, that sure is a boatload of cash.

- Either those players didn't want to come to Liverpool, their clubs didn't want to sell them, or (less likely) Liverpool didn't want them. I'd have preferred Messi myself, if we're pipe-dreaming.

- Benteke doesn't only score from crosses, although he doesn't get a bunch from crosses – both in open play and from set plays – but A) having an alternative isn't a bad thing, B) Liverpool will probably cross more this season, after adding Milner and Clyne and someone to actually cross to. and C) if you think he's nothing but headers and crosses, you've haven't seen that much of him. Because he's done far more than that in just his matches against Liverpool.

- Okay, true, but some of those players have actually been acceptable, I guess. And I expect decent things from those signed this summer. Also, be fair, Liverpool have signed a lot of players from outside the Premier League who've failed too.

The Andy Carroll comparison seems especially facile. Benteke is not Carroll for more than a few reasons, but most notable is that he's done it for a few seasons, rather than half of one. He's also faster, stronger, more durable, and seemingly a responsible professional rather than a running joke soaked in booze and Axe Body Spray, but his résumé is the more meaningful difference.

Benteke has averaged a nearly a goal every two games for three Premier League seasons.

As Paul Tomkins wrote, Emile Heskey seems a better comparison, at least physically, but Heskey was never as prolific as Benteke either, scoring once every four league games prior to moving to Liverpool compared to Benteke's once every two games.

Arguments with folks about Heskey's attributes were one of the first Liverpool arguments I remember having. Sure, he didn't score enough. Sure, he was an easy target for jokes and criticism. But, at his best, at Liverpool's best, he was vital in making space for Owen and Fowler to thrive, winning and holding possession, occupying and dragging defenders out of position, offering a different option. At the very, very least, Benteke will be able to do similar for Sturridge, Firmino, Coutinho, Lallana, etc. That's probably not enough to justify £32.5m, but it's a reasonable floor for expectations as well, and better than Liverpool currently have.



Benteke adds a different option to Liverpool, something Rickie Lambert was supposed to, but ultimately couldn't do last season. Multiple options, and a much deeper, varied squad, seem good things. Although there is still the worry that Rodgers never seemed to figure out his best side last season, and now he's got more pieces for the puzzle in this.



Also, let's be fair. Aston Villa – unless they were playing Liverpool, naturally – were generally awful. Only Sunderland averaged fewer key passes per match last season; only Sunderland and West Brom averaged fewer shots; only Sunderland and Burnley scored fewer goals. They were generally awful in all three of Benteke's seasons, threatened with relegation in each. So it's hard to tell how many of Benteke's flaws – the lack of dribbling and defensive contribution, the reliance on crosses and aerial duels – is due to the player's preferences or Aston Villa's style under Lambert and Sherwood. It's still enough to make you worry, but it's also enough to make excuses.

And if not for Benteke, Aston Villa probably would've been out of the Premier League three years ago.







Like Danny Ings, Benteke's seemingly bought to remedy one of last season's major failings.

LFC couldn't get shots on target in the DZ last yr. Their two targets didn't trouble from anywhere else pic.twitter.com/oB4myUouP3

— Paul Riley (@footballfactman) July 17, 2015

So, all of Benteke's shots are headers, yes?

Not quite. 27 of Benteke's 79 non-penalty shots last season were headers (34.2%), and I actually thought it'd be more. 33.3% were on-target, leading to four goals, all from open play. Seven of his goals came with his right foot, two with his left. Eight of his goals came from open play (four headers, three right-footed, one left-footed), two from corners (both right-footed), one from a free kick (left-footed), and one each from a penalty and a direct free kick.

However, removing headers does make Benteke look much less potent in the Danger Zone. 25 of Benteke's 52 non-penalty Danger Zone shots were headers (48.1%). Eight were on-target (four goals), 14 off-target, and three blocked. 12 from set plays, 13 from open play.





Yes, Benteke likes a header. Yes, Benteke likes a cross. But, again, I suspect a fair amount of that was due to Villa. Three of Benteke's seven international goals from Belgium came from headers (all open play crosses); the other four were from a low cross, a byline cutback, running onto a chipped ball over the back line, and picked up the rebound after the defense failed to fully clear a cross.

He may prefer headers, as they're still his strongest attribute, but there's a fair bit of variation in his goals.

Preseason so far, while still very much preseason, has seemingly demonstrated that Liverpool intend to be a more direct side. Not necessarily a long ball side, although I suspect we'll see more of them this season than last, but a more vertical side, quick to push forward after winning possession, quick to get multiple players forward – most notably, Henderson and Milner from midfield, in contrast to last season's midfield – quick to get into the box.

Benteke will very much help in this manner, whether as an orthodox target-man or running at defenses. Which he can do; I suspect you'll remember him doing both against Liverpool in previous seasons. And, as many others have noted, he'll help on set plays, both attacking and defending them. Liverpool scored just 13 set play goals last season while conceding 19, down from 26 scored and up from 12 conceded the season before (all competitions).

Yes, this transfer is a massive risk. Yes, this could go very badly. Yes, there are valid concerns about both style and adaptability. Yes, Liverpool overpaid – although, if you hadn't noticed, every single Premier League transfer this summer has seemed to be an overpay, because money, there's so much money and everyone has money.

Brendan Rodgers has designed his bed, bought the sheets, pillows, and quilt, and made his bed. And now, for better or worse, he'll lie in it.

On Nathaniel Clyne

Liverpool buying a player from Southampton? What could possibly go wrong?

Okay. Now we've gotten that out of the way.

Liverpool really aren't messing around this summer. Nathaniel Clyne just became Liverpool's sixth signing, after Milner, Ings, Bogdan, Gomez, and Firmino. Liverpool have announced replacements for Colin Pascoe and Mike Marsh.

Last summer and last season demonstrated that massive player turnover can be very much a bad thing, but Liverpool at least seem to have a plan this summer. And Liverpool have addressed almost every area of the pitch so far – even if there's still some way to go at the sharp end – midfield improved, attack improved, goalkeeping improved, and now, defense improved.



Let's be honest. Clyne's not incredibly impressive going forward, competent but slightly overrated and preferring to cross once he gets there. He is, however, very good in the tackle, good at avoiding fouls, good at keeping possession. He is, however, terrible in the air. He is solid, but not spectacular.

And, like Milner, like Ings, like Firmino, Clyne is durable, excellent at avoiding injuries. He started 35 and 34 games in 2014-15 and 2012-13. He only started 25 in 2013-14, but that was mainly due to splitting time with Calum Chambers more than injury, missing six matches because of two minor injuries.

As you may have noticed, Clyne's aerial statistics are really bad. That those totals span all three of his Premier League seasons, have stayed consistent through three different Southampton managers, means they're probably not improving much. That's a bit terrifying.



His key passes map is also slightly vexing. Eight of Clyne's 22 key passes (36.4%) last season came from crosses. That total was 11 of 28 (39.3%) in 2013-14 and eight of 20 (40%) in 2012-13. That's a fairly high total. Last season, if he got within 18 yards of the byline, he often crossed, and that was especially true when he created chances. And, as I'm sure you may remember, Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool do not cross all that often, although that might change somewhat depending on which striker Liverpool end up buying.

And, to be fair, I suspect that was at least partly by Southampton's design, with Graziano Pelle as target-man. Only West Ham averaged more crosses per game than Southampton last season. Only Swansea attempted fewer than Liverpool. You may also remember Clyne wreaking havoc in the box in the first game of last season. He might not get forward as often as other fullbacks, but he can be capable once getting there.



I wish I had Steve Finnan's stats from around the time he joined Liverpool in 2003-04, his last season with Fulham and his first few with Liverpool. I bet there'd be more than a few similarities. Clyne's almost certainly better going forward – Finnan scored just once and made only 11 assists in his five Liverpool seasons – but both are/were solid, steady, defensive-minded fullbacks who kept it simple and safe and committed few fouls. Similar was true for Alvaro Arbeloa.

I remember a lot of Liverpool supporters spending those two players' tenure wishing for the spectacular. And we got that with Glen Johnson: a tremendous attacking right-back, arguably the best in the league for his first few seasons, then an utter liability for the last couple when his legs went. Given both Rodgers' philosophy and Liverpool's flaws, solid and steady is probably better for the club at the moment. And it's absolutely an improvement on what Liverpool had at right-back last season.



Comparing Clyne to other Premier League right-backs generally thought of as some of the best last season leads to the same conclusion. He's not the best at anything, but he's rarely the worst either. Clyne completed fewer key passes compared to the other five players, but that might well be a function of what Southampton – read: Koeman – required from its fullbacks. And yes, Clyne's aerial ability will remain a preeminent concern; it's not as if Liverpool are already competent at defending crosses or set plays. But Clyne's seemingly aware of that weakness – every single player he's compared to above, Liverpool or Premier League, attempted more aerial duels. Not even aerial duels per 90. In total. Either that, or Southampton went out of their way to protect him from that weakness.

But otherwise, there are few holes in his game.

Nathaniel Clyne's solid and steady, dependable and durable, consistent, fairly well-rounded, and still fairly young having just turned 24. If everything goes to plan – and, admittedly, that doesn't happen for Liverpool all that often – this should be the right back position nailed down for the next five to eight years.

£12.5m certainly isn't cheap. I can't remember many Premier League teams paying more for fullbacks in the past ten years: Johnson and Moreno for Liverpool, Luke Shaw and Calum Chambers from Southampton, Boswinga, Kolarov, Filipe Luis, and maybe Debuchy are all that come to mind.

But considering Clyne is a newly-established English international, considering the fees Southampton received for Shaw and Chambers and Lovren and Lallana, considering the rise in transfer prices thanks to the ever-increasing influx of TV money, £12.5m actually does kind of seem cheap, even for a player in the last year of his contract.

Welcome to Liverpool, Nathaniel.