Visualized: Liverpool 0-1 Basel

Previous Match Infographics: Everton (h), West Ham (a), Ludogorets (h), Aston Villa (h), Tottenham (a), Manchester City (a), Southampton (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


Rodgers tried to adapt a more counter-attack strategy, which was an understandable gambit away from home in European competition. It failed for two reasons. Liverpool constantly mis-controlled or chose the wrong pass when attacking (while Basel also defended well, especially on their right flank, where Liverpool focused its attacks), and Liverpool yet again conceded from a set play despite looking reasonably secure in open play.

Liverpool's attacking third passing and play was reminiscent of the West Ham loss, which – I doubt I need remind – was very much not good.



Liverpool were caught offsides seven times yesterday, more than double the previous high for the season (three each against Villa and Ludogorets). Twice those offside decisions came with the ball in the back of the net: Sterling in the third minute, Balotelli in the 88th.

We covered pretty much all there is to cover about Sterling's performance in yesterday's match review – and I'm still quite angry he played the full 90 minutes – but it's also worth noting that he was dispossessed four times and turned the ball over four times, more than any other Liverpool player, another sign of the "mental fatigue" hypothesis, dwelling long enough on the ball for a defender to get involved. This season, he'd averaged 1.46 dispossessions and 1.79 turnovers per 90 minutes prior to yesterday's match.

Two more things mentioned in yesterday's match review that bear repeating.

First, not one of Liverpool's front three created a single chance. That's happened just once before under Rodgers – the 1-3 loss at Southampton in 2012-13 – whether counting the striker and wide attackers in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, or both strikers and the central attacking midfielder in the 4-4-2 diamond, or just when counting the front two strikers the few times Liverpool have played 4-4-2 or 3-5-2. That's a startling lack of creativity, and a sign that there's no coordination in attack at the moment, just a bunch of individual attackers hoping that something comes off.

Second, Mario Balotelli did not touch the ball once inside Basel's penalty box.



We've excused a fair amount of Balotelli's play because he's still adapting to a radically changing team and he's been mostly as advertised, but that's still inexcusable. You're the central striker. Get in the box.

That 10 of Liverpool's 15 shots came in the Danger Zone surprised in retrospect, but not many were especially viable chances. Five were blocked, three were off-target, and two on-target: Lovren's 44th minute header hit into the ground rather than directly at goal, easy for Vaclik to claim, and Markovic's close range bicycle kick taken right atop the keeper in the 54th. Three of those DZ shots came from corners: two headers from Lovren, one from Gerrard. All five of the blocks came after Basel had taken the lead, which – yet again – allowed the defenders to sit deeper to deny Liverpool space in the final third.

And, interestingly, Liverpool didn't take a single shot from wide areas, either inside or outside of the penalty area. Against Everton and West Ham, that's where the majority of Liverpool's shots came from.

Despite Basel's overwhelming edge in possession, Liverpool did fairly well in denying open play chances. Just five of Basel's 11 shots came inside the box, just two inside the Danger Zone. Mignolet made smart saves of Basel's best two opportunities from open play. Had Liverpool not failed yet again when defending a corner – even if it was failing just once from seven corners and four attacking third set plays – Liverpool would at least have taken a point, which is no small matter away from home in Europe, up against the side likely to be the closest competitors for that second qualifying spot.

But Liverpool failed yet again on a corner, and a still broken side is now returning to England with no reward and more headaches.

Liverpool 0-1 Basel

Goals:
Streller 52'

Complete disconnect in attack and a goal conceded from a set play. Stop me if you've heard this one before.

So rather than hash over the gory details about how Liverpool looked reasonably secure until conceding not long after halftime or how Basel actually became better after a 5th minute injury, forcing a switch from 4-2-3-1 to 3-5-2, I'm going to focus on something else.

We'll quote it in its entirety.

“Some managers would take the stance of ‘I don’t care’ because you might only be in a job for three, four, five years so make sure he plays as much as he can for you,” said Rodgers. “But I have welfare for the boy. I think it has to be critical that, in 10 years’ time, he is approaching his peak, as opposed to having played his best games. When he gets to 28 and if he has got too many miles on the clock and he is burned out, that is something we will have to look at. He is a big talent. He broke into the team at 17. As a club, we have managed him quite well. But it is hard when you are such a good player and you keep performing. Both your club and your country need you. Michael Owen had different types of injuries. Then you look at Robbie Fowler. You think of how good he was when he was a kid and then injuries caught up with him. He was 27, really. That is why I am protecting them when I can. You want that form to be consistent. You have to make sure he is fresh and well. He is a talented boy who will be managed as we feel is best.

I really try not to partake in the second-guessing game, but Raheem Sterling should not have played 90 minutes today. In fact, he probably shouldn't have played at all. Playing him made the side worse, and is potentially detrimentally to his career. I want to make it clear. I'm not criticizing the player. I'm criticizing the manager. All that's changed between now and the above quotes from Rodgers are Liverpool's increasingly poor form and results, so Rodgers is riding Sterling as hard as he can, because he sees a still-developing 19-year-old as his best hope.

That's not good.

I realize that Sterling is Liverpool's best attacking option at the moment. But three times the ball found him in space in or just outside the box, all in the second half with Liverpool chasing the game. Three times he failed to control, either forcing a shot easily blocked or losing possession. It's not so much physical fatigue – although that's there too – but mental fatigue. The kind of fatigue that also leads to losing possession in the 90th minute against Ludogorets or back passes in the 120th minute against Middlesbrough. And unlike on Saturday, where he was Liverpool's most creative player, he also failed to create a single chance.

To compound matters, Liverpool have lots of other problems at the moment.

Part of the reason Sterling continues to play no matter form or fitness is that Liverpool's other attackers aren't offering much help. Balotelli again worked hard, but never even touched the ball in Basel's penalty box, which is very much a bad thing for your central striker, and – like Sterling – failed to create a single chance. Sure, he's been as advertised and will be better once Sturridge returns, but he's been fairly dire as a lone attacker in this still-changing Liverpool system. Markovic's performance was an improvement on Boro or Everton, but he still looks every bit a 20-year-old low on confidence adjusting to a new team and league, and – like Sterling and Balotelli – failed to create a single chance. It's also not good when none of your attackers complete a key pass.

Meanwhile, Coutinho completed five, and was the first player substituted, for Lallana in the 70th minute. And to be fair, Liverpool had two decent opportunities after Lallana came on. Unfortunately, the first was one of the aforementioned opportunities for a clearly fatigued Sterling, the other was put wide by Markovic from Enrique's pass. And after Rickie Lambert replaced Markovic in the 81st minute, Liverpool's marginal opportunities completely dried up, the only moment of note when Balotelli was very offside when receiving Gerrard's chip over the defense, otherwise sputtering to yet another narrow, disappointing loss. As against Villa, as against West Ham.

Liverpool weren't incredibly exposed in midfield, with Henderson and Gerrard offering enough protection, but they had absolutely no control either, with Basel dominating possession until taking the lead, and continuing to edge possession even after taking it. Liverpool were however, very exposed on the flanks, the wing-backs getting forward to excellent effect against both Manquillo and Enrique.

And, of course, set play defending remains almost as big a problem as the misfiring attack, today's effort featuring Skrtel holding, Lovren ball-watching, and Mignolet parrying Schär's initial header straight into the path of Streller. Superb. 0-0 would have been disappointing, but still a decent result away from home in the Champions League, and set play defending is the reason Liverpool didn't even get that. Again.

All told, Liverpool were outclassed by a side that wasn't very good. Yes, life without Suarez, and now without an injured Sturridge, acclimating all these new players in a new system was always going to be difficult, and was going to be a process, but it shouldn't be this arduous. This was a team that Liverpool should have beaten, even struggling for form and with key players missing. Basel worked hard and caused problems down the flanks, but that shouldn't be enough to beat Liverpool.

Unfortunately, at the moment, it is, just as Villa and West Ham also demonstrated. And now Liverpool have to claw back even the minuscule boost in confidence from the decent performance against Everton. Because in three days time, they face a West Brom side not only above them in the league, but who also won their last game solely because of their threat from set plays.

Liverpool at Basel 10.01.14

2:45pm ET, live in the US on Fox Sports 2

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Everton (h); 2-2 Boro [14-13 pens] (h); 1-3 West Ham (a)
Basel: 1-1 Thun (h); 3-1 Vaduz (h); 4-0 Winterthur (a)

Previous CL matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Ludogorets (h)
Basel: 1-5 Real Madrid (a)

Goalscorers (CL):
Liverpool: Balotelli, Gerrard 1
Basel: Gonzalez 1

Referee: Jonas Eriksson (SWE)

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Manquillo Skrtel Lovren Moreno
Gerrard Henderson
Lallana Coutinho Sterling
Balotelli

Once again, it's still too soon for Daniel Sturridge, who didn't travel with the team to Switzerland. And neither did Mamadou Sakho, currently being punished for walking out on the club after being left out of the squad over the weekend.

Which means that tomorrow's XI is going to look an awful lot like the one we saw on Saturday. I suspect we'll see Coutinho or Borini in place of Markovic, who was suspended for the last match against Ludogorets, as the young winger's disappointed in his last two appearances. He'd probably benefit from being used as a substitute, where his speed can have more effect, especially if Liverpool are ahead in the match.

Liverpool could play a diamond, with Gerrard at the base; two from Henderson, Lucas, and Coutinho as the shuttlers; Lallana, Sterling, or Coutinho at the apex; and Balotelli and Borini or Lambert up front. Which doesn't seem ideal – even though Liverpool need help up front, the diamond doesn't ever seem ideal without Allen or Can opposite Henderson – it could work against Basel's likely 3-4-2-1 formation, giving Liverpool added strength in the middle of the pitch and an extra body up front so Balotelli isn't isolated against all those center-backs.

But for the most part, the XI writes itself. Unlike in the League Cup, we won't see many, if any, usual starters rested. Even if some players (*cough* Gerrard *cough*) clearly benefited from the lack of a midweek fixture. This match will go a long way in deciding the group – Liverpool and Basel are seemingly playing for second place – and it's not as if Liverpool are spoilt for choice, mainly thanks to lingering injuries.

As with Ludogorets, I won't pretend to know much about Basel's set-up or tactics. I know that they walk the Swiss Super League almost every season – league winners in the last five seasons, two points clear at the top after 10 games this season – and that they usually sell one or two key players every season, and then rebuild. See: Shaqiri, Xhaka, Salah, etc.

They're now managed by Paulo Sousa, who you may remember from QPR, Swansea, or Leicester. Sousa was Swansea's manager prior to Brendan Rodgers, leaving for a bigger salary at Leicester, where he lasted all of 86 days, while Rodgers got Swansea promoted to the Premier League in his first season.

Basel's usual system so far this season is 3-4-2-1, and the XI which lost 1-5 to Real Madrid was Vaclik; Schär, Samuel, Suchy; T Xhaka, El Nenny, Frei, Safari; Gonzalez, Zuffi; Streller. Fabian Schär is seemingly the next player to depart for a bigger club/league/paycheck, while Samuel and Streller are cagey veterans, and Fabian Frei is Basel's cornerstone central midfielder. Serey Die is another option as a defensive midfielder, Matias Delgado as an attacking midfielder. The legendary Philipp Degen still plays for Basel, but will surprisingly miss out due to injury, as will center-back Ivan Ivanov, the reigning Bulgarian Footballer of the Year.

Basel have been difficult European opponents in the last few seasons, making the round of 16 in the Champions League in 2011-12, reaching the Europa League semifinals in 2012-13 (where they lost to Chelsea), and beating Chelsea twice in the Champions League group stage last season, ultimately ending up in the Europa League where they made the last eight.

Unlike Liverpool, they have experience in European competition, no matter the turnover Basel's squad goes through every season. Liverpool certainly can't take them lightly, but Liverpool's form of late has meant they can't take anyone lightly.

No matter the result, Liverpool were a better side on Saturday, delivering one of the stronger performances of the season despite the continuing struggles in front of goal. Not that that's saying much. Sousa's preferred tactics and the fact that Liverpool are away from home should mean that the team has more space to operate, to counter-attack, compared to almost every other fixture so far this season. It's always dangerous to have hope, but if Liverpool can build on Saturday's performance, tomorrow's match could well be a much-needed turning point.

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Everton

Previous Match Infographics: West Ham (a), Ludogorets (h), Aston Villa (h), Tottenham (a), Manchester City (a), Southampton (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


So close, yet still so far.

Compare it to Villa or West Ham, or Ludogorets or Boro, and Liverpool were vastly better. In all areas.

In contrast to Villa and West Ham, Liverpool started exceptionally well, only denied a goal in the first 11 minutes by both Tim Howard and Martin Atkinson. Liverpool created more chances, better chances, and took more shots. The link-up play in attack was much improved, with Henderson, Coutinho, Lallana, and Sterling involved in almost all of Liverpool's most prolific passing combinations. Liverpool allowed Everton just two Danger Zone chances: the threatening header that Lukaku barely made contact with in the 66th minute and Barry's near post flick from a free kick after Everton had already equalized. Otherwise, the away side took just one more shot inside the box, which was blocked, and eight speculative shots from outside the box. Liverpool avoided the individual errors that either cost or nearly cost points in all the aforementioned fixtures.

And yet Liverpool still dropped two points because football is not fair and life is not fair.

Mario Balotelli took 10 of Liverpool's 24 shots. Which is both a good and bad thing. But mostly bad, as eight of the 10 were off-target, and eight of the 10 came from outside the box. He took five of the six shots in "Out Box Left" on the above chart, Sterling's blocked effort which should have been a handball and penalty the only exception. Liverpool took 39 shots in that zone through all of last season, resulting in four goals (three from Suarez, one from Sturridge).

A couple of those shots actually came on the end of good build-up play. Which, coincidentally, were his two Danger Zone shots: sustained possession ending with a blocked effort from Sterling's centered pass, and the counter-attack and cross where he hit the bar in the 67th. Two were from direct free kicks – one into the wall, one saved by Howard – in the first 10 minutes before Gerrard rightfully pulled rank. The other six… eh, not so much.

• In the 25th minute, from outside the box, with two teammates in the box and three just outside, hitting an offside Moreno with his wild effort.

• In the 38th minute, a wormburning roller from 25 yards out not even close to goal with six (!!!) teammates ahead of him.

• In the 40th minute, a shot from nearly 35 yards, deflected out for a corner.

• In the 43rd minute, another attempted curler from outside the box on the left, straight at Tim Howard and easily caught, with five players ahead of him and three in the box.

• In the 59th minute, scrambling to pick up a loose ball, his shot from 25 yards hitting Henderson, who was attempting to recycle possession. And yes, there were four Liverpool players ahead of him, along with Moreno level and wide open on the left flank.

• In the 80th minute, wonderfully controlling Mignolet's goal kick before volleying narrowly wide, the best of his efforts from distance. This was Liverpool's last shot of the match.

Balo can really be a Carmelo-esqu ball stopper.

— Mike L. Goodman (@TheM_L_G) September 27, 2014

That's the perfect cross-sports comparison. He is an excellent player who will win you games, but you're probably not winning anything of note if he's your main or only attacking option.

There is some value in long-range shots and shot monsters with no conscience, and we knew this was the case with Balotelli long before Saturday's match. I recommend scrolling through this long conversion on Twitter yesterday, where this article from Colin Trainor was also mentioned. Liverpool would be struggling for shots in general without Balotelli's efforts, and speculative long range chances still have a chance of going is, as Phil Jagielka cruelly demonstrated.

Nonetheless, let me reiterate. Balotelli took 10 shots, and did not create a single chance. He took 10 shots, the same number of passes he completed. That's less than ideal.

Luis Suarez took 10 shots in just two matches after Rodgers became manager: against Fulham last season, where he scored twice, and against Reading in 2012-13, a match where his accuracy was even worse than Balotelli's on Saturday but Liverpool still narrowly won 1-0 because Reading didn't have Phil Jagielka. Both Gerrard and Coutinho have attempted nine in a match during that time frame (the latter in the same Fulham match where Suarez attempted 10, the former in that match against Chelsea last season that we won't discuss any further); Sturridge's high so far is eight, in the 5-0 win against Swansea in 2012-13. In every single match mentioned above, the individual player took a lower percentage of Liverpool's total shots than Balotelli did on Saturday.

Regardless, finally, Liverpool got its goal, from a set play. The first set play goal of the season. The first direct free kick scored since Gerrard's at Sunderland on March 26, 14 league matches ago. Liverpool won eight games thanks to set play goals last season: 1-0 United (h), 1-0 Fulham (h), 2-0 Norwich (h), 2-0 West Ham (h), 1-0 Hull (h), 1-0 Everton (h), 2-0 Arsenal (h), and 2-1 Newcastle (h). And the goal came from a free kick that Balotelli won.

And then – unsurprisingly, considering the goals that Liverpool conceded late against both Ludogorets and Middlesbrough – Liverpool reverted into a defensive shell, a tactic which brought them victory in the first three matches to start last season, but rarely since then.

In a just universe, Liverpool's defensive shelling would have worked.




The one chance that Everton created inside the box in the final 20 minutes was from a free kick conceded by Moreno after Everton had equalized. Before that, for more than 20 minutes, all Everton could create despite near total possession was three shots outside the box: McCarthy, Eto'o, and McGeady, all well off-target. Liverpool's packed defense shoved Everton out wide in the attacking, denying passes into the box and centrally in front of the box.

But then that goal happened. Everton allowed to build inside its own half, under some pressure from Lallana but with everyone else dropping back, a long ball to the right back near the corner flag, an overhit cross picked up by McGeady, McGeady's cross headed out of the box, but WHAM, Jagielka from nearly 30 yards out. Maybe Lovren could and should have directed his header elsewhere rather than out centrally where it could be picked up, maybe Moreno should have blocked Browning's initial cross, but otherwise Liverpool did little wrong on that sequence. And they were punished all the same.

If Liverpool play like this in every match, it sure seems as if they'll win far more than they lose or draw, especially once Sturridge and Allen return to the XI. But the frightening thing is that we used similar "ifs" to justify results from 2009-10 through 2012-13, and I suspect you remember how that went.

Liverpool 1-1 Everton

Goals:
Gerrard 65'
Jagielka 90+2'

If you don't laugh, you're gonna cry and maybe explode and maybe go on a murderous rampage, so I recommend laughing.

It's the third game this season – and there have only been eight matches so far this season – where Liverpool have conceded in injury time. One in each competition that Liverpool's currently involved in. All three of them at Anfield.

The Ludogorets breakaway after Liverpool stupidly lost possession in the attacking third when defending a 1-0 lead. A Middlesbrough penalty in extra time when Sterling back-passed to a Boro attacker when defending a 2-1 lead and Toure unnecessarily scythed down the attacker. And now, the most unbelievable. The best shot of Phil Jagielka's life after Lovren headed away an Everton cross, with Liverpool looking secure despite 15 minutes of defensive shelling. Liverpool were actually doing what they should in that situation, and even doing it marginally well, and that happens. Sports are the worst.

And, of course, that it happens against Everton, at Anfield, makes it approximately 10000% worse. Wonderful.

Otherwise, same old Liverpool but with what looked to be the return of the set play saving grace. Well, not quite same old Liverpool, as both the defense and midfield were the best they've been since beating Tottenham, maybe all season. But same old Liverpool in attack without Daniel Sturridge.

It's probably a very different match if Barry concedes a penalty (and gets a second yellow) for handball in the 9th minute, or a deserved second yellow for a foul less than a minute later. But Martin Atkinson Doesn't Want To Ruin The Game™, in the vein of great English referees such as Howard Webb, and wrongly ignores both. Liverpool will be right to complain about those moments.

Nonetheless, Liverpool were dominant in that first half and still better than Everton in the second – something we haven't been able to say often this season – and really should have been able to take advantage, regardless of the referee.

Lallana and Henderson's work rate made a massive difference to the midfield, and Liverpool's defense looked much more secure, despite the same personnel, until that preposterous equalizer, although they were aided by Martinez's conservative tactics, clearly remembering what happened the last time Everton came to Anfield.

It's still the attack that's problematic, with Mario Balotelli the most problematic. Aside from an excellent start, Liverpool rarely looked like scoring despite taking 24 shots. 10 of those came from Balotelli: two on target, three off-target, and five blocked. Eight of 10 from outside the box. It's exactly as advertised – he shoots from everywhere with no conscience – and made worse because Liverpool didn't have many other options. But it's not working at the moment, and Liverpool desperately misses Daniel Sturridge, who'll help ease some of Balotelli's burden.

Last season, when the attack struggled, set plays saved the day. And that looked to be the case today, when Gerrard fired past Howard from 25 yards after Balotelli was fouled, for Liverpool's first set play goal of the season. Finally.

The struggles in attack meant that Liverpool were always going to defensively shell after going ahead, only looking for a second when Everton gave them opportunities on the break. And the only time Everton truly threatened before injury time was immediately after the goal, a deep cross from Besic narrowly missing Lukaku's head. And Liverpool almost replied straight away: a counter-attack ending with Sterling's cross finding Balotelli six yards from goal but only able to hit the crossbar, possibly aided by the slightest of touches from Howard.

Liverpool had few opportunities on the break, but stifled Everton, long shots from Eto'o and McGeady that weren't even close Everton's only chances. Liverpool isolated attackers, Liverpool cleared free kicks, corners, and crosses. Until injury time, until only half clearing a cross, until that moment from Jagielka that he'll never be able to replicate.

To be fair, if Liverpool continue to play like that, they'll score more than a lone goal in most games and win most of those games. Balotelli's shooting was awful but he still worked hard, tracked back and held the ball up well. Lallana was outstanding, although – like Sterling – clearly started to tire and became less influential after his midweek exertions. Henderson did Henderson things in midfield, both linking with attack and protecting Gerrard. Lovren and Skrtel finally looked a decent partnership. Sturridge will eventually return, Liverpool's all-new attackers will become more accustomed to one another.

Yes, it's not even October yet, but the season is quickly getting away from Liverpool. Seven points from six games is a horrific return, reminiscent of the early failures which ended up defining both 2009-10 and 2012-13. They're currently 11th, and will probably be nine points off the league leaders in a little more than an hour. Already. Liverpool did mostly right and good things and only dropped two points because of a freak occurrence, even if unfairly, even if harshly, but that's made much worse because of what's come before.

This was always possible when trying to adapt to a different system with a lot of new players, especially in attack, and without Liverpool's most important attacker because of an international break injury. It's now become reality. Things should and probably will get better, but that has to happen before the mountain's too high to climb.

Liverpool v Everton 09.27.14

7:45am ET, live in the US on NBCSN

Last four head-to-head:
4-0 Liverpool (h) 01.28.14
3-3 (a) 11.23.13
0-0 (h) 05.05.13
2-2 (a) 10.28.12

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 Boro [14-13 pens] (h); 1-3 West Ham (a); 2-1 Ludogorets (h)
Everton: 0-3 Swansea (a); 2-3 Palace (h); 4-1 Wolfsburg (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Sterling 3; Gerrard, Moreno, Sturridge 1
Everton: Naismith 3; Mirallas, Lukaku 2; Baines, Coleman, Eto'o, McGeady 1

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Manquillo Skrtel Lovren Moreno
Gerrard Henderson
Borini Lallana Sterling
Balotelli

I dislike derbies at the best of times – even remembering how the last one ended – but this match definitely comes a week or so too soon.

Both Henderson and Coutinho are questionable, while Sturridge seems slightly more doubtful. And, of course, Allen, Can, Johnson, and Flanagan are all still absent as well.

I shudder to think what Liverpool's midfield will look like if both Henderson and Coutinho miss out. It would probably have to be 4-2-3-1, with Lallana ahead of Lucas and Gerrard, and Sterling and Borini/Suso/Markovic flanking Balotelli. Yes, a 4-2-3-1 with Lucas and Gerrard, remembering that Lucas played 120 minutes on Tuesday, might actually be Liverpool's "best" option. I can't sigh hard enough.

If just Henderson's fit (and I guess I just always expect Honey Badger to be fit), it'll probably be a similar set-up as against Boro, but with Henderson instead of Lucas. 4-2-3-1, with Lallana left, Sterling central, Borini/Suso/Markovic right, and Balotelli up front.

Maybe Rodgers plays three at the back, as we saw in most of the match at West Ham, to mitigate the losses in midfield. Something like Lovren, Skrtel, Sakho; Manquillo, Henderson/Lucas, Gerrard, Moreno; Lallana, Balotelli, Sterling.

If everyone's fit, it's probably the diamond, with Sterling at the apex and Henderson and Coutinho as shuttlers. That'd be ideal. I very much doubt everyone's fit. Liverpool's staff will know far better than I do, but given Sturridge's injury record, you'd have to think he'd be used as a substitute if at all after missing the last three weeks.

Everton aren't in the best shape either, in regards to form or fitness. One win, two draws, and two losses in the league, the worst loss in the last league match, a 2-3 home defeat to Palace at home despite scoring in the 9th minute, for Palace's first league win of the season. Which was followed by a second-string Everton absolutely dismantled by Swansea on Tuesday. On the injury front, Seamus Coleman and Steven Pienaar will be game-time decisions, while Barkley and Kone are assuredly absent.

Their defense has been even more frail than Liverpool, having conceded 13 in the league through six games, by far the most in the league but made worse by letting in six while chasing the match against Chelsea. But Everton have at least been decent in front of goal, with 11 strikes to Liverpool's seven so far.

Martinez's most likely XI (if Coleman and Pienaar are absent) is Howard; Stones, Jagielka, Distin, Baines; Barry, McCarthy; Mirallas, Naismith, McGeady; Lukaku. Osman, Besic, or Gibson could start instead of McGeady for more midfield solidity, Atsu could for more counter-attacking pace. But I also assume Coleman will be available, because I always assume the worst.

Maybe it's a good thing that form goes out the window in derbies, as the cliché goes. For both sides. It's obvious, but whoever best remedies the problems which have plagued so far – Everton in defense, Liverpool in all three sections of the pitch – will have the best chance of coming out on top.

Even with European football (albeit the Europa League), matches against Liverpool are often Everton's most meaningful fixtures of the season. But tomorrow's match is even more important to Liverpool. A win tomorrow, remembering how to score against a shaky defense, could reinvigorate Liverpool's season, especially with all those injuries soon to heal. But I'm terrified to think of the effect that a loss would have given what's come before it.

Liverpool v Middlesbrough 09.23.14

2:45pm ET, not live on TV in the US. Delayed on BeIN Sport at 4pm ET.

Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Boro (a) 02.28.09
2-1 Liverpool (h) 8.23.08
3-2 Liverpool (h) 02.23.08
1-1 (a) 01.12.08

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-3 West Ham (a); 2-1 Ludogorets (h); 0-1 Villa (h)
Middlesbrough: 4-0 Brentford (h); 1-0 Cardiff (a); 2-1 Huddersfield (a)

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: n/a
Middlesbrough: 3-1 Preston (h); 3-0 Oldham (a)

Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Sterling 3; Gerrard 2; Balotelli, Moreno, Sturridge 1
Middlesbrough: Leadbitter 7; Kike 5; Tomlin 2; Adomah, Ayala, Bamford, Williams 1

Referee: Mike Jones

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Manquillo Skrtel Lovren Moreno
Lucas Rossiter
Lallana
Markovic Lambert Borini

I have but one request. Do not play Gerrard.

That's easier said that done with news that both Henderson and Coutinho have minor injuries and are unlikely to play tomorrow, in addition to the already missing Allen and Can. But it still has to happen, even if it means a midfield comprising of three from Lucas, Lallana, Rossiter, and Suso.

Otherwise, whatever. The packed fixture list means Liverpool have to work around absentees and rest others. The result is fairly low down the list of priorities, no matter the current dearth of confidence or the match taking place at Anfield.

It's a chance for Lambert, Lallana, and Markovic to become better acclimatized to the side. I wouldn't have minded seeing Balotelli in place of Lambert – he needs minutes with his new teammates too – but Rodgers has confirmed Lambert will start, and considering the players injured and who need resting, I doubt Liverpool will go with the diamond.

Lallana in midfield would mean that either Sterling or Borini has to start in the front three (Balotelli's seemingly less likely than either). It'll probably be Borini, and rightfully so considering Liverpool's priorities and Sterling's age, but Sterling has been Liverpool main and frequently only attacking threat.

It's a chance for the defense to maybe think about removing their heads from their rear ends for a change, which is why I've guessed no changes in that area. But Sakho and/or Toure could come in, Jones might well start because it's a cup game, Enrique might actually make an appearance to rest Liverpool's first-choice left-back.

In the last two seasons, Rodgers' line-ups were stronger than expected in the two matches in this competition. But that seems less likely this season. Liverpool are back in the Champions League, and Liverpool have a much more important match early Saturday to worry about. Resting players who need resting seems both alpha and omega.

But make no mistake. This won't be easy, regardless of who starts. Middlesbrough are a decent side, fifth in the Championship, winning five and losing three so far this season, full of confidence after dominating Brentford in their last outing.

Aitor Karanka, who used to be Mourinho's assistant manager at Real Madrid, usually plays 4-2-3-1, but signing both Jelle Vosson and Kike (yes, I know what it looks like, but it's pronounced KEY-que) this summer gives him options. Vossen has started the last two matches up front: as a lone striker against Brentford, partnered with Kike against Cardiff. Patrick Bamford, on loan from Chelsea, is also dangerous, whether deployed out wide or in the hole, predominantly used as a substitute so far this season. Captain Grant Leadbitter, formerly of Sunderland and Ipswich, is top scorer, but top scorer like Gerrard was third-top scorer for Liverpool last season, with only one of seven goals from open play. His usual midfield partner, Dean Whitehead, is suspended, likely replaced by Adam Clayton. You may also recognize one of Boro's central defenders, Daniel Ayala, who will return from suspension.

Remember, it's the League Cup. Of course, I'd like to see some improvement in Liverpool's cohesion, performances, tactics, but the result is pretty much incidental. Liverpool have enough games this season already. Just be better than the dross we've seen in the last two league matches.

That's not asking too much, is it?

Visualized: Liverpool 1-3 West Ham

Previous Match Infographics: Ludogorets (h), Aston Villa (h), Tottenham (a), Manchester City (a), Southampton (h)

As always, match data from Stats Zone, except shot location from Squawka and average player position from ESPN FC.


That may have looked familiar. You may have remembered similar from the previous weekend. But while Liverpool's impotence and general ineptitude was similar, there were some crucial differences from the loss to Aston Villa.

No matter the formation, Liverpool remained broken. Mainly 4-3-3 against Villa (4-2-3-1 and 4-1-2-3), both 4-4-2 diamond and 3-5-2 against West Ham, but not good in any shape. Which was depressing, as Liverpool had at least looked competent in the diamond's other appearances this season. West Ham's similar formation and fast start rendered that moot, though.

The biggest similarity between the two losses was conceding an early goal, coincidentally, both from set plays. Last season, it was Liverpool who did this to the opposition. Increasingly, that's looking a function of having Luis Suarez in your side, scaring defenders backwards before the whistle even blows. This season, sides have learned that you can get at Liverpool, the quicker the better, and it's fairly safe to assume you won't be punished for it (unless you're Tottenham). I've no idea how to remedy this except for not conceding preventable goals. The only way Liverpool's attack is pushing anyone back at the moment is when Sturridge gets back into the side.

The main difference in the last two losses was in Liverpool's shooting. During Saturday's match, it felt as if Liverpool had better chances, but that might solely be because of Sterling's goal. Or maybe because Liverpool's shot accuracy was better; it could hardly be worse. But both the location and volume were vastly worse. Liverpool took 18 shots against Villa; they could only manage 11 against West Ham. Seven of those 18 shots against Villa came from the danger zone; Liverpool took just one against West Ham. Aside from Sterling's goal, those accurate shots were fairly easy for Adrian, in large part because they came from the wide areas of the box and outside the box – shots with a very low expectation of a goal.

Also, Liverpool struggled to get the ball into the box against Villa. Liverpool struggled to get the ball into the attacking third against West Ham.



60% attacking third accuracy is abhorrent, and both the completion and accuracy statistics are similar to matches at Everton and Spurs last season – matches where Liverpool took an early lead and were able to sit back and blitz the opposition on the counter, not when they were chasing a match after going behind early. And, Liverpool often completely bypassed the midfield against West Ham, which is a big reason why the attacking third totals and accuracy is so low.

A lot of it has to do with Liverpool's personnel. Balotelli – who, again, played okay on Saturday – is a wholly different striker than Daniel Sturridge or Luis Suarez. Liverpool haven't been able to play to his strengths, haven't been able to alter its style to play to his strengths, seemingly because of both tactics and personnel.

Compare where Balotelli received the ball at West Ham to where Sturridge received it against Southampton, another match where Liverpool assuredly weren't at their best, but still found a way to win.



It's no coincidence that Balotelli's best match (and Liverpool's best match, for that matter) was when he played with Sturridge against Tottenham.



Balotelli could drop deep and pull wide while Sturridge made runs in behind, or get into the box to receive crosses when Sturridge dragged defenders into the channels. Neither of those things happened when partnered with Borini or Lambert up front (Balotelli did link better with Borini, "better" being very much a relative term), and a large part of Liverpool's solitary goal came from Balotelli's excellent control when receiving one of Liverpool's 20 crosses into the box (not to take away from Sterling's awareness or excellent finish). That was one of the two successful Liverpool crosses.

Finally, yes, we have to talk about Steven Gerrard. For the second league match in a row, an opposition player both cancelled out his strengths and exploited his weaknesses. First, Agbonlahor, at least while Villa were in the ascendancy in the first half. On Saturday, Downing to an even greater degree.

Using an intelligent winger (for all Downing's faults, so evident when at Liverpool, he is an intelligent footballer) as a #10 was something of a masterstroke by Allardyce, and it's probably something Liverpool will see again. Each side Liverpool's faced this season has added something to the template for disrupting Liverpool (except Tottenham). Downing likes to play wide, is two-footed, and willing to run. He both covered Gerrard when Liverpool were in possession and dragged Gerrard out of position when Liverpool weren't, taking away one of the few layers of protection in front of an already shaky defense which already had to cope with two strikers.

Liverpool, known for being an at-least-competent pressing team, had two tackles and four interceptions in West Ham's half, most clustered on the right flank near the halfway line. Meanwhile, West Ham made five tackles and four interceptions across the width of midfield, which helped force that long passing to bypass midfield. Gerrard and Henderson exchanged 16 passes (most in the second half when Henderson moved deeper with Lallana in the hole), but Lucas and Gerrard exchanged just three (including none from Gerrard to Lucas), while Henderson and Lucas exchanged just three. It was incredibly different than the midfield triangle's passing against Villa, and it's not coincidence that the only match where Gerrard attempted fewer passes was in the win over Tottenham, with Liverpool conceding possession and relying on the counter attack after its early goal.

The inference, which we have a decent amount of evidence for, is that Gerrard has to play with two mobile, high-intensity midfielders who'll both support in defense and link with the attack. Otherwise, he's dragged out of position by players like Downing while Henderson and Lallana try to get forward, or Lucas struggles to track back when asked to fill a shuttling support role. Which puts pressure on the center-backs, which helps lead to all those mistakes we're perpetually ruing.

Ideally, it's Henderson and Allen, but Henderson and Coutinho also worked when the Brazilian was in-form last season, and, in theory, Can should be able to fill the role when fit. But not Lucas, and not Lallana (at least not yet).

And it's probably safe to assume that the captain can't play three matches in a week anymore, not three full 90 minutes at the least. One of this week's matches probably should have seen Lucas take over Gerrard's role, both to see if it's any improvement and to rest the captain. Tomorrow's League Cup at Middlesbrough had better see that change happen.