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Last four head-to-head:
3-2 Liverpool (h) 03.10.13
1-2 Tottenham (a) 11.28.12
0-0 (h) 02.06.12
0-4 Tottenham (a) 09.18.11
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 4-1 West Ham (h); 5-1 Norwich (h); 1-3 Hull (a)
Tottenham: 4-1 Anzhi (h); 2-1 Sunderland (a); 2-1 Fulham (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 15; Sturridge 9; Gerrard 3; Coutinho, Moses, Sakho, Skrtel, Sterling 1
Tottenham: Soldado 4; Sigurðsson 3; Paulinho 2; Chiriches, Holtby, Sandro, Townsend, Walker 1
Referee: Jon Moss
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Skrtel Sakho Flanagan
Lucas Allen
Sterling Coutinho Henderson
Suarez
I doubt there will be much deviation from the side which beat West Ham last week, aside from Gerrard's obvious absence.
Missing Gerrard and Sturridge and Enrique is bad enough, but at least the rumors that Henderson was also injured turned out to be false. And I suspect we'll see Henderson on the left – as he was for spells against West Ham – to counteract Spurs' threat down that flank and protect Flanagan. That's the side where Spurs are most threatening, with Walker bombing forward from right back and one of Lennon, Townsend, or Lamela as a wide forward.
The other option seems to be packing the midfield, most likely with Henderson and Allen marginally ahead of Lucas, with Coutinho, Sterling, and Suarez as the lone attackers, set up for the counter, in more of a 4-3-3.
But there's also a small temptation to revert to three at the back. Mignolet; Skrtel, Sakho, Agger; Henderson, Lucas, Allen, Johnson; Coutinho; Aspas/Sterling, Suarez. It could be either 3-4-1-2 or 3-4-3. Eight players who'll do far more defending, three attackers as release valves, but even more players packed in the central area of the middle and defensive thirds, the areas where Spurs will look to dominate.
15 matches into the campaign, and I've no idea what Tottenham's strongest XI is. I don't think Andre Villas-Boas does either. And that's probably a large reason why Spurs are still underperforming, still disjointed, and sat in sixth, albeit only three points behind Liverpool and Chelsea. Yes, yes, Suarez has scored as many league goals as Spurs in total in five fewer matches. But Spurs are unbeaten in the last five matches since losing 0-6 to City, with two Europa League wins and two wins and a draw in the Premiership.
Which of Sandro, Paulinho, and Dembele makes the best midfield pairing? Or do you try to play all three? And how does Capoue get shoe-horned back into that group? He's been needed in central defense recently, with Vertonghen injured, but you'd assume the Belgian will walk back into the XI once fit. And it doesn't help that Chiriches and Kaboul are also likely out, although the Romanian could be available after missing the last week with a swollen knee.
Is it possible to have too many wide players? Any of Holtby, Sigurðsson, Lennon, Townsend, Lamela, or Chadli could get the nod. Holtby and Sigurðsson are more patient on the ball, more like central attacking players that just happen to start out wide, helping Spurs keep possession in the opponent's half. Either can play in the middle of an attacking line of three or on the flank; Holtby can also play deeper in central midfield, as he did against Anzhi. Lennon and Townsend are speedy wingers; the former adds width and crosses, the latter cuts inside and shoots from distance with little conscience or thought to where anyone else is on the pitch. Chadli's height could add an extra dimension on set plays, especially given how much trouble Liverpool have had defending them. And Lamela, on paper, seems the most talented: an excellent dribbler, passer, and goal-scorer at Roma, but he's seen the least pitch time of the six, and there has been little indication as to why.
Is Jermain Defoe really a better fit than Roberto Soldado? Well, maybe. Soldado's struggled to make an impact – aside from his hat-trick against Anzhi on Thursday – and Defoe's pace might well do more to unsettle Liverpool's defense. However, Defoe underwhelmed and failed to score when starting both matches against Liverpool last season, and has just three goals in 20 (!!) appearances against Liverpool since 2001 (!!!!). The third option up front, Adebayor, is also out injured.
And what's the deal with Lamela and Eriksen? Two highly, highly, highly touted signings who haven't seen anywhere near the playing time we expected, although Eriksen's at least has the excuse of a month-long injury, which he's just returning from.
It's probably safe to assume that few of the players who started against Anzhi on Thursday will also start on Sunday. Spurs' Europa League lineup was: Friedel; Naughton, Capoue, Fryers, Rose; Dembele, Holtby; Lamela, Sigurðsson, Townsend; Soldado.
So my best guess at Tottenham's XI is Lloris; Walker, Capoue, Dawson, Rose; Sandro, Paulinho; Lennon, Holtby, Chadli; Defoe.
Liverpool haven't won, haven't even taken a point, at White Hart Lane since May 2008, a last-day-of-the-season 3-1 victory which meant little; Liverpool were locked in fourth, Tottenham had moved all the way up to 11th after Jol was sacked with Spurs in the relegation zone. It's Liverpool's longest drought on any ground, as long as they've played the opposition more than once during that stretch. Since that win? Six consecutive losses, including one in the League Cup, outscored by a 16 to 6 margin. Incidentally, four of the five league matches have finished 2-1 to Tottenham, in case you're in a mood to gamble on Sunday's scoreline.
Liverpool are deservedly ahead of Spurs in the table after 15 games. This is not last season's Tottenham, or 2011-12 Tottenham. Not yet, at least. But it will still be a tough test, probably Liverpool's toughest of the season aside from the 0-2 loss at Arsenal last month. And it will be a very good indicator how much Liverpool might struggle, or how much Liverpool could surprise and impress, in even tougher tests to come at City and Chelsea in the next couple of weeks.
The snowball will start rolling down the hill with this fixture. Either it picks up steam and mass and rolls over Liverpool's opponents, or it crushes Liverpool's hopes of a top four finish.
13 December 2013
09 December 2013
Visualized: Liverpool 4-1 West Ham
Previous Match Infographics: Norwich (h), Hull City (a), Everton (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), West Brom (h), Newcastle (a), Crystal Palace (h), Sunderland (a), Southampton (h), Swansea (a), Manchester United (h), Aston Villa (a), Stoke (h)
As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.
Liverpool have now scored three or more goals in its last five league matches at Anfield. That hasn't happened since 2008-09, when Liverpool did it in the last five of the season – 5-0 Villa, 4-0 Blackburn, 4-4 Arsenal, 3-0 Newcastle, 3-1 Tottenham – when Liverpool came oh so close to winning the title. And that streak includes a 1-3 Champions League loss to Chelsea. Last season, Liverpool scored three or more at Anfield in six of the 19 league matches. In 2011-12, Liverpool scored three or more in seven league matches in total, just four at home. This team is finally recreating Fortress Anfield, even if it's a slow process, one which still sees Liverpool concede too many goals. So it's a fortress with shoddy walls and a shallow moat, but it's armed to the teeth with archers, cannons, and trebuchets. You've got to start somewhere.
Liverpool's 32 shots came from 30 chances created; 93.8% of Liverpool's attempts were set up by a teammates' pass. There was very little one-man improvisation, very little 'Suarez wins possession, runs at defenders, scores all by himself.' Liverpool's attacked as a team, which seems a good thing considering how resiliently West Ham usually defend. And how well James Collins has marked Suarez in the past. In the previous 14 matches, Liverpool had averaged 72.3% of its shots from chances created, bettering 93.8% just once this season, when all five of its shots against Villa came from a teammate's pass.
Nine of those Liverpool shots came in the 10 minutes after Gerrard went off. Liverpool utterly dominated those ten minutes, completely camped in the opposition half, and were more than unlucky not to find a third goal before West Ham's very lucky goal of their own.
An average of just under a shot per minute, 7.3 completed passes per minute, seven chances created. Liverpool completed 95% of its passes during those 10 minutes. 95%! And just six of those 77 passes originated from Liverpool's defensive third. Hopefully, it was a sign of Liverpool's potential if Gerrard's out for any extended stretch of time (it's rumored to be a month, meaning he'd miss the three crucial away games against Tottenham, City, and Chelsea). Of course, none of those 73 completed passes, seven chances created, or nine shots led to the needed third goal. And that Liverpool (read: Lucas) was hassled out of possession in the center of the park, directly leading to the extended move to get West Ham back into the game, was as worrying as the previous 10 minutes were encouraging.
Saturday was just the sixth time where Liverpool's opponent has registered a single shot on target since Rodgers took over as manager. It's happened one other time this season, last month's 4-0 win against Fulham, and four times last season: the 1-0 win against QPR, 0-0 in this fixture last April, the 5-0 win over Norwich, and the 1-1 draw against Sunderland. Probably not coincidentally, all six matches took place at Anfield.
West Ham's shot on target yesterday was brilliantly saved by Mignolet while the game was still 0-0. Of course, West Ham still managed to score, thanks to an own goal, but it was still a vastly improved defensive performance. Going into this match, Liverpool had allowed 5.0 shots on target per match this season, well above last season's 3.7 on target per match. And, as we've learned in a few previous matches, allowing that many shots on target can be a recipe for disaster. Mignolet can only save Liverpool so often.
There were more similarities between Saturday's match and last April's 0-0 draw at Anfield besides West Ham's one shot on target. The passing and possession totals are incredibly alike, especially West Ham's totals.
Of course, there's one big, obvious difference – Liverpool scored four more goals than they did in the last meeting – and a couple of reasons for it. Liverpool took 12 more shots on Saturday, but it's not as if Liverpool peppered Jaaskelainen more frequently, putting eight shots on target in both matches. Still, you can't ride the carousel without buying a ticket, and Liverpool bought an awful lot of tickets this weekend.
Liverpool's attacking third passing was also drastically, dramatically better. They only attempted nine fewer passes in April, but completed 38 more on Saturday. 69.8% attacking third accuracy last season, 83.9% this season. 83.9% is also Liverpool's highest attacking third accuracy in any match under Rodgers. This season's previous high was 82.8% against 10-man Newcastle, last season's was 83.0% in the 5-0 home win against Norwich. Liverpool had averaged 72.1% attacking third accuracy this season prior to this match.
But, of course, you still need those intangible bits of luck: that ricochet off Demel for the opening own goal, that deflection off O'Brien for Liverpool's fourth. But, of course, there's also something to be said for making your own luck.
As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.
Liverpool have now scored three or more goals in its last five league matches at Anfield. That hasn't happened since 2008-09, when Liverpool did it in the last five of the season – 5-0 Villa, 4-0 Blackburn, 4-4 Arsenal, 3-0 Newcastle, 3-1 Tottenham – when Liverpool came oh so close to winning the title. And that streak includes a 1-3 Champions League loss to Chelsea. Last season, Liverpool scored three or more at Anfield in six of the 19 league matches. In 2011-12, Liverpool scored three or more in seven league matches in total, just four at home. This team is finally recreating Fortress Anfield, even if it's a slow process, one which still sees Liverpool concede too many goals. So it's a fortress with shoddy walls and a shallow moat, but it's armed to the teeth with archers, cannons, and trebuchets. You've got to start somewhere.
Liverpool's 32 shots came from 30 chances created; 93.8% of Liverpool's attempts were set up by a teammates' pass. There was very little one-man improvisation, very little 'Suarez wins possession, runs at defenders, scores all by himself.' Liverpool's attacked as a team, which seems a good thing considering how resiliently West Ham usually defend. And how well James Collins has marked Suarez in the past. In the previous 14 matches, Liverpool had averaged 72.3% of its shots from chances created, bettering 93.8% just once this season, when all five of its shots against Villa came from a teammate's pass.
Nine of those Liverpool shots came in the 10 minutes after Gerrard went off. Liverpool utterly dominated those ten minutes, completely camped in the opposition half, and were more than unlucky not to find a third goal before West Ham's very lucky goal of their own.
An average of just under a shot per minute, 7.3 completed passes per minute, seven chances created. Liverpool completed 95% of its passes during those 10 minutes. 95%! And just six of those 77 passes originated from Liverpool's defensive third. Hopefully, it was a sign of Liverpool's potential if Gerrard's out for any extended stretch of time (it's rumored to be a month, meaning he'd miss the three crucial away games against Tottenham, City, and Chelsea). Of course, none of those 73 completed passes, seven chances created, or nine shots led to the needed third goal. And that Liverpool (read: Lucas) was hassled out of possession in the center of the park, directly leading to the extended move to get West Ham back into the game, was as worrying as the previous 10 minutes were encouraging.
Saturday was just the sixth time where Liverpool's opponent has registered a single shot on target since Rodgers took over as manager. It's happened one other time this season, last month's 4-0 win against Fulham, and four times last season: the 1-0 win against QPR, 0-0 in this fixture last April, the 5-0 win over Norwich, and the 1-1 draw against Sunderland. Probably not coincidentally, all six matches took place at Anfield.
West Ham's shot on target yesterday was brilliantly saved by Mignolet while the game was still 0-0. Of course, West Ham still managed to score, thanks to an own goal, but it was still a vastly improved defensive performance. Going into this match, Liverpool had allowed 5.0 shots on target per match this season, well above last season's 3.7 on target per match. And, as we've learned in a few previous matches, allowing that many shots on target can be a recipe for disaster. Mignolet can only save Liverpool so often.
There were more similarities between Saturday's match and last April's 0-0 draw at Anfield besides West Ham's one shot on target. The passing and possession totals are incredibly alike, especially West Ham's totals.
Of course, there's one big, obvious difference – Liverpool scored four more goals than they did in the last meeting – and a couple of reasons for it. Liverpool took 12 more shots on Saturday, but it's not as if Liverpool peppered Jaaskelainen more frequently, putting eight shots on target in both matches. Still, you can't ride the carousel without buying a ticket, and Liverpool bought an awful lot of tickets this weekend.
Liverpool's attacking third passing was also drastically, dramatically better. They only attempted nine fewer passes in April, but completed 38 more on Saturday. 69.8% attacking third accuracy last season, 83.9% this season. 83.9% is also Liverpool's highest attacking third accuracy in any match under Rodgers. This season's previous high was 82.8% against 10-man Newcastle, last season's was 83.0% in the 5-0 home win against Norwich. Liverpool had averaged 72.1% attacking third accuracy this season prior to this match.
But, of course, you still need those intangible bits of luck: that ricochet off Demel for the opening own goal, that deflection off O'Brien for Liverpool's fourth. But, of course, there's also something to be said for making your own luck.
07 December 2013
Liverpool 4-1 West Ham
Goals:
Demel OG 42'
Sakho 47'
Skrtel OG 67'
Suarez 81'
O'Brien OG 84'
Well that was one of the strangest 4-1s I've seen in a long time.
For 42 minutes, it was typical Liverpool v West Ham. Few chances thanks to West Ham's resilient defense, all wasted, with Collins continuing to mark Suarez as well as any defender in the league. It was a better team performance than Wednesday, even though the only change was Sakho for Agger due to the latter's illness, but without the single-minded single-handed brilliance which won Liverpool that match. And West Ham arguably had the two best chances until the the last five minutes of the half, as Maiga narrowly missed contact with Diame's 10th-minute throughball and Mignolet brilliantly denied the same striker's 22nd-minute header, what would have been a carbon copy of Norwich's consolation on Wednesday.
Then own goal happened. The impressive Joe Allen pressed Nolan into a mistake, Johnson and Suarez combined to create a shot for the Uruguayan, parried by Jaaskelainen directly into Demel and unluckily bundled into West Ham's net. Yes, yes, better to be lucky than good, but Allen, Johnson, and Suarez's good work directly contributed to that luck.
Going into halftime with the lead was utterly crucial. Liverpool's second half scoring struggles are widely known, Liverpool hadn't lost a match this season when leading after 45 minutes.
Liverpool could have been up by two going into the break, but somehow Suarez contrived to shoot wildly wide when released by Sterling on the break, when he seemingly had the time to take a touch and round Jaaskelainen. Quickly followed by West Ham demonstrating the perpetual threat that any Liverpool opponent provides with a set play clusterfuck just before intermission. Still, thankfully, we weren't made to wait long for a second, Gerrard's free kick scrambled in by Sakho at the back post, nearly another own goal rather than the Frenchman's first for the club.
From there, it seemed cruise control. Liverpool dominated – absolutely, completely, totally, wholly dominated – for a 15 minute spell, penning West Ham in its own half without a moment's reprieve. Gerrard's 56th minute injury, seemingly precautionary with a slight hamstring problem, didn't knock Liverpool off its stride at all; if anything, they were more threatening, rotating play at speed, refusing to let West Ham take a breath. Coutinho and Sakho could have scored, Sterling should have scored twice: the first skied, the second wonderfully saved. As against Norwich, West Brom, Fulham. It seemed a matter of how many.
And it was a matter of time, but for the wrong side, as Liverpool proceeded to shoot itself in the foot. Again. Specifically, sadly, the substitute Lucas, who mis-controlled and dallied in midfield, conceding possession with Liverpool completely out of its defensive shape. Liverpool wouldn't touch the ball again until Skrtel unfortunately redirected into his own net after Jarvis won a back-post header over Johnson from Nolan's right-wing cross, after 30 seconds of West Ham possession in Liverpool's defensive third.
From 2-0 up, comfortably strolling towards victory, to 2-1 with clenched butt cheeks and 15 minutes of West Ham possession. More set play disarray, with Maiga fortunately poking wide at the back post, then Diame given time and space to shoot from distance, thankfully well wide.
But then that man, finally scoring his first goal in 261 minutes against West Ham, by far his longest drought against any club he's faced. Liverpool's first sustained possession since conceding, coincidentally coming just after Kelly replaced Flanagan, Coutinho opening up West Ham's defense by spreading play wide to an open Johnson, a perfect cross from the full-back to Suarez at the far post, finally eluding Collins' constant surveillance and an unstoppable point-blank header past Jaaskelainen.
Finally, sweet relief, the coffin further nailed down by Nolan's immensely frustrated red card for studs into the back of Henderson's calf a minute later and the third own goal of the match two minutes after that. The dubious goals committee would do well to give it to Suarez, twisting and turning Noble out of his shoes and socks before a shot that appeared on target was heavily deflected by Joey O'Brien. More luck, but again deserved, deserved luck.
It really was a better team performance than on Wednesday, despite how much more terror the match inspired. Joe Allen was at the heart of it, by far Liverpool's most impressive performer, winning possession in midfield, passing crisply and accurately, playing a handful of through-balls that would have inspired fevered praise and a fair few erections had they come from Coutinho or Suarez. That's the Joe Allen we saw at the start of last season, the Joe Allen which cost £15m. And it comes at the best possible time if Gerrard's out for any length of time.
Sakho was the other standout: a handful of crucial interceptions, tackles, and blocks; winning six of his 12 aerial duels; scoring the very, very crucial, eventually game-winning second. But those two, combined with Mignolet's immaculate save and relatively decent distribution, Sterling's vast improvement with increased playing time, Suarez finally rising above the fray in the final ten minutes, and little to complain about from any Liverpool player, were a needed demonstration that Liverpool can do it as a team rather than relying on one or two stars. Especially when against a side and manager that's frequently frustrated Liverpool over the last few years.
Now, with trips to Tottenham, City, and Chelsea in the next three weeks, Liverpool will have to replicate that against even tougher opposition.
Demel OG 42'
Sakho 47'
Skrtel OG 67'
Suarez 81'
O'Brien OG 84'
Well that was one of the strangest 4-1s I've seen in a long time.
For 42 minutes, it was typical Liverpool v West Ham. Few chances thanks to West Ham's resilient defense, all wasted, with Collins continuing to mark Suarez as well as any defender in the league. It was a better team performance than Wednesday, even though the only change was Sakho for Agger due to the latter's illness, but without the single-minded single-handed brilliance which won Liverpool that match. And West Ham arguably had the two best chances until the the last five minutes of the half, as Maiga narrowly missed contact with Diame's 10th-minute throughball and Mignolet brilliantly denied the same striker's 22nd-minute header, what would have been a carbon copy of Norwich's consolation on Wednesday.
Then own goal happened. The impressive Joe Allen pressed Nolan into a mistake, Johnson and Suarez combined to create a shot for the Uruguayan, parried by Jaaskelainen directly into Demel and unluckily bundled into West Ham's net. Yes, yes, better to be lucky than good, but Allen, Johnson, and Suarez's good work directly contributed to that luck.
Going into halftime with the lead was utterly crucial. Liverpool's second half scoring struggles are widely known, Liverpool hadn't lost a match this season when leading after 45 minutes.
Liverpool could have been up by two going into the break, but somehow Suarez contrived to shoot wildly wide when released by Sterling on the break, when he seemingly had the time to take a touch and round Jaaskelainen. Quickly followed by West Ham demonstrating the perpetual threat that any Liverpool opponent provides with a set play clusterfuck just before intermission. Still, thankfully, we weren't made to wait long for a second, Gerrard's free kick scrambled in by Sakho at the back post, nearly another own goal rather than the Frenchman's first for the club.
From there, it seemed cruise control. Liverpool dominated – absolutely, completely, totally, wholly dominated – for a 15 minute spell, penning West Ham in its own half without a moment's reprieve. Gerrard's 56th minute injury, seemingly precautionary with a slight hamstring problem, didn't knock Liverpool off its stride at all; if anything, they were more threatening, rotating play at speed, refusing to let West Ham take a breath. Coutinho and Sakho could have scored, Sterling should have scored twice: the first skied, the second wonderfully saved. As against Norwich, West Brom, Fulham. It seemed a matter of how many.
And it was a matter of time, but for the wrong side, as Liverpool proceeded to shoot itself in the foot. Again. Specifically, sadly, the substitute Lucas, who mis-controlled and dallied in midfield, conceding possession with Liverpool completely out of its defensive shape. Liverpool wouldn't touch the ball again until Skrtel unfortunately redirected into his own net after Jarvis won a back-post header over Johnson from Nolan's right-wing cross, after 30 seconds of West Ham possession in Liverpool's defensive third.
From 2-0 up, comfortably strolling towards victory, to 2-1 with clenched butt cheeks and 15 minutes of West Ham possession. More set play disarray, with Maiga fortunately poking wide at the back post, then Diame given time and space to shoot from distance, thankfully well wide.
But then that man, finally scoring his first goal in 261 minutes against West Ham, by far his longest drought against any club he's faced. Liverpool's first sustained possession since conceding, coincidentally coming just after Kelly replaced Flanagan, Coutinho opening up West Ham's defense by spreading play wide to an open Johnson, a perfect cross from the full-back to Suarez at the far post, finally eluding Collins' constant surveillance and an unstoppable point-blank header past Jaaskelainen.
Finally, sweet relief, the coffin further nailed down by Nolan's immensely frustrated red card for studs into the back of Henderson's calf a minute later and the third own goal of the match two minutes after that. The dubious goals committee would do well to give it to Suarez, twisting and turning Noble out of his shoes and socks before a shot that appeared on target was heavily deflected by Joey O'Brien. More luck, but again deserved, deserved luck.
It really was a better team performance than on Wednesday, despite how much more terror the match inspired. Joe Allen was at the heart of it, by far Liverpool's most impressive performer, winning possession in midfield, passing crisply and accurately, playing a handful of through-balls that would have inspired fevered praise and a fair few erections had they come from Coutinho or Suarez. That's the Joe Allen we saw at the start of last season, the Joe Allen which cost £15m. And it comes at the best possible time if Gerrard's out for any length of time.
Sakho was the other standout: a handful of crucial interceptions, tackles, and blocks; winning six of his 12 aerial duels; scoring the very, very crucial, eventually game-winning second. But those two, combined with Mignolet's immaculate save and relatively decent distribution, Sterling's vast improvement with increased playing time, Suarez finally rising above the fray in the final ten minutes, and little to complain about from any Liverpool player, were a needed demonstration that Liverpool can do it as a team rather than relying on one or two stars. Especially when against a side and manager that's frequently frustrated Liverpool over the last few years.
Now, with trips to Tottenham, City, and Chelsea in the next three weeks, Liverpool will have to replicate that against even tougher opposition.
06 December 2013
Liverpool v West Ham 12.07.13
10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Live Extra
Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (h) 04.07.13
3-2 Liverpool (a) 12.09.12
1-3 West Ham (a) 02.27.11
3-0 Liverpool (h) 11.20.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 5-1 Norwich (h); 1-3 Hull (a); 3-3 Everton (a)
West Ham: 0-1 Palace (a); 3-0 Fulham (h); 0-3 Chelsea (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 13; Sturridge 9; Gerrard 3; Coutinho, Moses, Skrtel, Sterlin 1
West Ham: Morrison 3; J Cole, Vaz Te 2; C Cole, Diame, Noble, Nolan, Reid 1
Referee: Michael Oliver
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Skrtel Sakho Flanagan
Henderson Gerrard Lucas Coutinho
Aspas Suarez
As usual when games come in quick succession, I assume there will be some rotation, but I've no idea how much rotation.
It's probably safe to pencil in Mignolet, Johnson, Flanagan, Gerrard, Coutinho, and Suarez. Johnson's usually excellent against his former club; Cissokho didn't even make the bench against Norwich and Hull; Gerrard, Suarez, and Coutinho always start if available.
That leaves five places. Center-backs have become surprisingly hard to predict. Skrtel's started more than any other, and odds are that continues. I'd still love to see a Sakho/Agger pairing given a chance, but Rodgers have given us absolutely no hint that he's willing to try it. And I suspect Agger might be dropped tomorrow because of West Ham's physicality and the way that Bradley Johnson beat him to the header for Norwich's consolation. Combine that with the fact that I really, really hope Toure and Skrtel aren't paired again – thanks, Hull – and a Skrtel-Sakho duo seems the most likely.
I find it hard to believe that Lucas will miss consecutive matches when fit, although Gerrard and Allen did do reasonably well on Wednesday and Liverpool are at home.
And, as I wrote in the Norwich preview, I'd like to see Suarez and Aspas paired up front, playing Aspas in a similar manner as Sturridge when combined with Suarez, which informs the guessed front four. Henderson on the right, Coutinho ostensibly on the left, and two strikers up front: a fluid system to try and pull a resilient, deep defense out of position.
Because I expect Allardyce will be Allardyce, setting West Ham up to be tight, hoping for a draw at worst and nicking something against the run of play at best. Whether that means we'll see the 4-6-0 formation he's deployed at times, or Carlton Cole as the burly lump up front to unsettle Liverpool's defense with physicality is the main, really the only, question.
Jaaskelainen, Demel, Collins, Tomkins, Rat, Noble, Nolan, Downing, Morrison, and Diame seem certain starters. Either Carlton Cole or Maiga play as a lone striker, or Morrison and Diame are the furthest forward attackers with Downing and either Joe Cole or Jarvis on the flanks. West Ham are missing three strikers through injury – Petric, Vaz Te, and someone named Andy Carroll (*shrugs*) – as well as center-back Reid. And I always, always worry about players facing their former club, even if those players are Downing and Joe "Lil Wheezy" Cole.
The fear is that this could be a lot like last weekend. Multiple men, the team bus, and Allardyce himself camped in West Ham's penalty box – tackles and blocks, tackles and blocks – then dangerous on the break and set plays, ready to capitalize on the seemingly inevitable Liverpool mistake(s).
This fixture ended 0-0 last season. West Ham had one shot on target, 35% possession, and barely completed 200 passes. Liverpool took 20 shots, but Jaaskelainen made seven saves, Tomkins had a crucial goal-line clearance, and Suarez hit the woodwork. Two penalty shouts ignored, a goal dubiously ruled out for offsides. Allardyce would be more than happy with that result tomorrow.
It's fairly simple. Knowing Liverpool's aims for the season, these are matches that Liverpool should be winning. Achieving that result will be slightly more complex, though.
Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (h) 04.07.13
3-2 Liverpool (a) 12.09.12
1-3 West Ham (a) 02.27.11
3-0 Liverpool (h) 11.20.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 5-1 Norwich (h); 1-3 Hull (a); 3-3 Everton (a)
West Ham: 0-1 Palace (a); 3-0 Fulham (h); 0-3 Chelsea (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 13; Sturridge 9; Gerrard 3; Coutinho, Moses, Skrtel, Sterlin 1
West Ham: Morrison 3; J Cole, Vaz Te 2; C Cole, Diame, Noble, Nolan, Reid 1
Referee: Michael Oliver
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Skrtel Sakho Flanagan
Henderson Gerrard Lucas Coutinho
Aspas Suarez
As usual when games come in quick succession, I assume there will be some rotation, but I've no idea how much rotation.
It's probably safe to pencil in Mignolet, Johnson, Flanagan, Gerrard, Coutinho, and Suarez. Johnson's usually excellent against his former club; Cissokho didn't even make the bench against Norwich and Hull; Gerrard, Suarez, and Coutinho always start if available.
That leaves five places. Center-backs have become surprisingly hard to predict. Skrtel's started more than any other, and odds are that continues. I'd still love to see a Sakho/Agger pairing given a chance, but Rodgers have given us absolutely no hint that he's willing to try it. And I suspect Agger might be dropped tomorrow because of West Ham's physicality and the way that Bradley Johnson beat him to the header for Norwich's consolation. Combine that with the fact that I really, really hope Toure and Skrtel aren't paired again – thanks, Hull – and a Skrtel-Sakho duo seems the most likely.
I find it hard to believe that Lucas will miss consecutive matches when fit, although Gerrard and Allen did do reasonably well on Wednesday and Liverpool are at home.
And, as I wrote in the Norwich preview, I'd like to see Suarez and Aspas paired up front, playing Aspas in a similar manner as Sturridge when combined with Suarez, which informs the guessed front four. Henderson on the right, Coutinho ostensibly on the left, and two strikers up front: a fluid system to try and pull a resilient, deep defense out of position.
Because I expect Allardyce will be Allardyce, setting West Ham up to be tight, hoping for a draw at worst and nicking something against the run of play at best. Whether that means we'll see the 4-6-0 formation he's deployed at times, or Carlton Cole as the burly lump up front to unsettle Liverpool's defense with physicality is the main, really the only, question.
Jaaskelainen, Demel, Collins, Tomkins, Rat, Noble, Nolan, Downing, Morrison, and Diame seem certain starters. Either Carlton Cole or Maiga play as a lone striker, or Morrison and Diame are the furthest forward attackers with Downing and either Joe Cole or Jarvis on the flanks. West Ham are missing three strikers through injury – Petric, Vaz Te, and someone named Andy Carroll (*shrugs*) – as well as center-back Reid. And I always, always worry about players facing their former club, even if those players are Downing and Joe "Lil Wheezy" Cole.
The fear is that this could be a lot like last weekend. Multiple men, the team bus, and Allardyce himself camped in West Ham's penalty box – tackles and blocks, tackles and blocks – then dangerous on the break and set plays, ready to capitalize on the seemingly inevitable Liverpool mistake(s).
This fixture ended 0-0 last season. West Ham had one shot on target, 35% possession, and barely completed 200 passes. Liverpool took 20 shots, but Jaaskelainen made seven saves, Tomkins had a crucial goal-line clearance, and Suarez hit the woodwork. Two penalty shouts ignored, a goal dubiously ruled out for offsides. Allardyce would be more than happy with that result tomorrow.
It's fairly simple. Knowing Liverpool's aims for the season, these are matches that Liverpool should be winning. Achieving that result will be slightly more complex, though.
05 December 2013
Visualized: Liverpool 5-1 Norwich
Previous Match Infographics: Hull City (a), Everton (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), West Brom (h), Newcastle (a), Crystal Palace (h), Sunderland (a), Southampton (h), Swansea (a), Manchester United (h), Aston Villa (a), Stoke (h)
As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.
Here's the formation diagram usually included in the match review, as I didn't do a match review last night. Sorry about that.
Anyway.
Sometimes you just can't legislate for genius. Luis Suarez was the alpha and omega – and every other letter in every other alphabet – of that match.
And without Suarez – more specifically, without Suarez in that form – that's most likely a very, very different match.
Until his first moment of breathtaking, jaw dropping brilliance, Norwich's plan worked surprisingly, depressingly well. For 15 minutes, Liverpool looked disjointed, while Norwich started dangerously, wasting a couple of half chances made from Liverpool's mistakes, with Hull seemingly still fresh in the memories. Just as importantly, the away side were getting bodies behind the ball, blocking Liverpool's first four shots before Henderson tentatively put two decent chances well off-target.
But then Luis Suarez happened. And happened again. And again. And again. And again, but that time as creator rather than finisher.
So, as strange as it sounds, let's remove Suarez from the equation. Liverpool still dominate possession and still take 21 shots, but only six of those 21 were on-target; seven were off-target, and eight were blocked. And four of those 21 shots were set up by Suarez, including Liverpool's final goal. Liverpool's first non-Suarez shot on target wasn't until the 38th minute, Gerrard's easily held effort from around 30 yards out. Liverpool's first clear chance not involving Suarez wasn't until the 52nd minute, Gerrard's diving header parried by Ruddy. Of Liverpool's three best non-Suarez chances, two were brilliantly saved by Ruddy, from Allen and Gerrard, and then Gerrard hit the woodwork with two minutes left in regulation.
If Suarez has an off-day, like against Hull, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Liverpool loses 0-1 thanks to Bradley Johnson's late goal, another Liverpool defensive breakdown, this time as Liverpool let Hull pass across midfield before failing to block Redmond's cross before Johnson beat Agger to the header far too easily. That result would have looked and felt an awful like the Liverpool of 2011-12 or a handful of matches in the first half of last season: well on top in passing, possession, tenor, and tempo, but unable to find the needed goal(s) thanks to opposition keeper excellence and the woodwork. And that's fairly worrisome following Sunday's performance and result.
But yes, there's an awful lot of "if my aunt had testicles, she'd be my uncle" in that line of reasoning. Liverpool did have Luis Suarez yesterday. And Luis Suarez sure was amazing. He won't convert four of seven shots in many matches, but he is converting 25% of all shots this season (13 goals from 52 shots), an absolutely unfathomable rate, light years away from 12.3% last season or 8.6% in 2011-12.
Six of his 11 goals against Norwich have come from outside the box. He's only scored seven other goals from outside the box – so 13 of his 64 in total for Liverpool – direct free kicks against City, Udinese, Zenit (twice), Wigan, and Everton as well as a open play goal against Stoke. Suarez is the first Premier League player to score three hat-tricks against the same club, and the third Liverpool player to score four goals in a Premier League match (Fowler did it twice, Owen once). I swear, he's got Saxon blood somewhere in his family tree, because no one's pillaged East Anglian opposition like this in about 1500 years.
But, despite that genius that I'm really running out of superlatives to describe, it's not as if it was all Suarez and 10 others brought in from the stands. Coutinho made a massive difference, everywhere in Norwich's half and Liverpool's top chance creator, although none of his five shots found the target (two off-target, three blocked). He's getting better and better with each passing minute following his too-long injury absences. Glen Johnson was also vastly improved, much more involved, especially when going forward, than he was on Sunday, creating the same number of chances as Coutinho.
Gerrard and Allen also looked a good pairing in midfield, even though I'm tempted to hold Norwich being allowed to pass across Liverpool's midfield prior to the lone goal against them. Aside from the consolation and those aforementioned early half-chances, Norwich offered little in attack, but Gerrard felt comfortable enough with Allen holding, knew when and where Allen would cover, to get forward more than in any other match this season. He did deserve a goal for his efforts, and that lovely improvised flick off the woodwork would have been a fitting one. And at the same time, each central midfielder made six tackles, a reassuring amount with Lucas left on the bench. As important as I think Lucas is when he's at his best, this partnership looked promising enough to think that dropping the Brazilian is a viable option in certain matches, especially at Anfield when Liverpool expects to monopolize the run of play.
As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.
Here's the formation diagram usually included in the match review, as I didn't do a match review last night. Sorry about that.
Anyway.
Sometimes you just can't legislate for genius. Luis Suarez was the alpha and omega – and every other letter in every other alphabet – of that match.
And without Suarez – more specifically, without Suarez in that form – that's most likely a very, very different match.
Until his first moment of breathtaking, jaw dropping brilliance, Norwich's plan worked surprisingly, depressingly well. For 15 minutes, Liverpool looked disjointed, while Norwich started dangerously, wasting a couple of half chances made from Liverpool's mistakes, with Hull seemingly still fresh in the memories. Just as importantly, the away side were getting bodies behind the ball, blocking Liverpool's first four shots before Henderson tentatively put two decent chances well off-target.
But then Luis Suarez happened. And happened again. And again. And again. And again, but that time as creator rather than finisher.
So, as strange as it sounds, let's remove Suarez from the equation. Liverpool still dominate possession and still take 21 shots, but only six of those 21 were on-target; seven were off-target, and eight were blocked. And four of those 21 shots were set up by Suarez, including Liverpool's final goal. Liverpool's first non-Suarez shot on target wasn't until the 38th minute, Gerrard's easily held effort from around 30 yards out. Liverpool's first clear chance not involving Suarez wasn't until the 52nd minute, Gerrard's diving header parried by Ruddy. Of Liverpool's three best non-Suarez chances, two were brilliantly saved by Ruddy, from Allen and Gerrard, and then Gerrard hit the woodwork with two minutes left in regulation.
If Suarez has an off-day, like against Hull, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Liverpool loses 0-1 thanks to Bradley Johnson's late goal, another Liverpool defensive breakdown, this time as Liverpool let Hull pass across midfield before failing to block Redmond's cross before Johnson beat Agger to the header far too easily. That result would have looked and felt an awful like the Liverpool of 2011-12 or a handful of matches in the first half of last season: well on top in passing, possession, tenor, and tempo, but unable to find the needed goal(s) thanks to opposition keeper excellence and the woodwork. And that's fairly worrisome following Sunday's performance and result.
But yes, there's an awful lot of "if my aunt had testicles, she'd be my uncle" in that line of reasoning. Liverpool did have Luis Suarez yesterday. And Luis Suarez sure was amazing. He won't convert four of seven shots in many matches, but he is converting 25% of all shots this season (13 goals from 52 shots), an absolutely unfathomable rate, light years away from 12.3% last season or 8.6% in 2011-12.
Six of his 11 goals against Norwich have come from outside the box. He's only scored seven other goals from outside the box – so 13 of his 64 in total for Liverpool – direct free kicks against City, Udinese, Zenit (twice), Wigan, and Everton as well as a open play goal against Stoke. Suarez is the first Premier League player to score three hat-tricks against the same club, and the third Liverpool player to score four goals in a Premier League match (Fowler did it twice, Owen once). I swear, he's got Saxon blood somewhere in his family tree, because no one's pillaged East Anglian opposition like this in about 1500 years.
But, despite that genius that I'm really running out of superlatives to describe, it's not as if it was all Suarez and 10 others brought in from the stands. Coutinho made a massive difference, everywhere in Norwich's half and Liverpool's top chance creator, although none of his five shots found the target (two off-target, three blocked). He's getting better and better with each passing minute following his too-long injury absences. Glen Johnson was also vastly improved, much more involved, especially when going forward, than he was on Sunday, creating the same number of chances as Coutinho.
Gerrard and Allen also looked a good pairing in midfield, even though I'm tempted to hold Norwich being allowed to pass across Liverpool's midfield prior to the lone goal against them. Aside from the consolation and those aforementioned early half-chances, Norwich offered little in attack, but Gerrard felt comfortable enough with Allen holding, knew when and where Allen would cover, to get forward more than in any other match this season. He did deserve a goal for his efforts, and that lovely improvised flick off the woodwork would have been a fitting one. And at the same time, each central midfielder made six tackles, a reassuring amount with Lucas left on the bench. As important as I think Lucas is when he's at his best, this partnership looked promising enough to think that dropping the Brazilian is a viable option in certain matches, especially at Anfield when Liverpool expects to monopolize the run of play.
03 December 2013
Liverpool v Norwich 12.04.13
2:45pm ET, live in the US on NBC Sports Live Extra
Last four head-to-head:
5-0 Liverpool (h) 01.19.14
5-2 Liverpool (a) 09.29.12
3-0 Liverpool (a) 04.28.12
1-1 (h) 10.22.11
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-3 Hull (a); 3-3 Everton (a); 4-0 Fulham (h)
Norwich: 1-0 Palace (h); 1-2 Newcastle (a); 3-1 West Ham (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Sturridge, Suarez 9; Gerrard 3; Coutinho, Moses, Skrtel 1
Norwich: Fer, Hooper, Howson 2; Pilkington, Redmond, Snodgrass, Whittaker, van Wolfswinkel 1
Referee: Anthony Taylor
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Sakho Agger Cissokho
Henderson Gerrard Lucas Coutinho
Aspas Suarez
Is that terrible taste from Sunday still stuck in your mouth, and you can't get rid of it no matter how many times you gargle? Yeah, me too. And I hope it's still stuck in the Liverpool players' mouths as well.
Norwich are seemingly the best possible opponents to remove that terrible taste. Liverpool have beaten Norwich by a combined 13-2 in the last three meetings and Suarez has especially delighted in sinking his teeth into the Canaries, tallying seven goals – including two hat-tricks at Carrow Road – as well as an assist.
There will clearly be a fair bit of rotation – much needed rotation – from Sunday's line-up, and Rodgers has more than a few choices how to set up his side.
Personally, I'd like to see Aspas – if fit enough to start after being left on the bench at Hull – used as something of a direct replacement for Sturridge. The same 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 formation with Henderson and Coutinho ostensibly on the flanks, Aspas and Suarez buzzing dangerously across the width and breadth of the final third, pulling center backs out of position for each other and the two players cutting in from the flanks. Preseason is often a poor barometer, but Aspas looked more capable as an out-and-out striker than he did playing as a deeper #10 when fit early in the season.
Admittedly, even at best, that doesn't fix Liverpool's midfield or defense, which – discounting the abomination at Hull – have been the bigger issues. This might well be a match to rest Lucas or Gerrard, to see what Liverpool's midfield looks like with one of those players missing, as the longer the season goes on, the less likely it seems they'll eventually began complementing each other's game.
And I'd finally like to see both Sakho and Agger starting, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. Lies, damned lies, and statistics, but Liverpool's conceded six goals in the last two matches, and Skrtel's the only center-back who started both. Agger was a part of of one of those, at Everton, but he's also started in all four of Liverpool's clean sheets this season; his other two starts came at Everton and in the narrow 0-1 loss to Southampton. Sakho's done little wrong as well. Norwich will pose threats, to be sure, and this won't be as easy as the last meeting between these two sides at Anfield, but this seems as good a match as any to try a Sakho-Agger pairing. Flanagan may also be rested in order to give Cissokho another chance, ostensibly providing more attacking threat from full-back, but starting Toure at right-back with Johnson on the left also seems an option.
However, I wouldn't be surprised to see something different than the above guess. Whether it's either Moses or Sterling retaining a place on the flank – surely it won't be both – or both Henderson/Allen and Gerrard ahead of Lucas, inverting the midfield triangle at the expense of a #10, or reverting to a back three in an attempt to stop the goals from flying in and feel more comfortable using Sakho and Agger at the same time. It's not as if Rodgers is lacking for options. Even if we're a long way from being convinced by some of those options.
Norwich have rebounded from being hammered by Arsenal, United, and City in the space of two weeks at the end of October/beginning of November, beating Palace and West Ham while narrowly losing at Newcastle over the last month.
Hull gave other sides the template for beating Liverpool, although it's not as if Steve Bruce's side exposed any new deficiencies. Set plays and counter-attacks, set plays and counter-attacks. In Hooper, Redmond, and Hoolahan, Norwich have three dangerous attackers capable of punishing any side on the break. Redmond's pace and talent with the ball at his feet frightens the most. Thankfully, their supremely talented set-play taker, Robert Snodgrass, will miss out through injury, but Liverpool have managed to concede set-play goals to far less talented takers and teams.
With Pilkington, Tettey, and van Wolfswinkel also absent through injury, Norwich's most likely XI is the same which beat Palace on Saturday: Ruddy; Martin, Bennett, Bassong, Olsson; Howson, Fer; Hoolalan, Elmander, Redmond; Hooper. Bradley Johnson may come in for Elmander, shifting Fer further forward for more heft in midfield, but that seems the only probable change.
Three of Norwich's four wins have been narrow 1-0 victories, and they've also drawn more than half of the fixtures played so far this season. That feeds into the aforementioned template for nullifying Liverpool. Keep it tight, prevent an early goal, frustrate the home side, and hope to nick one against the run of play. Take a first half lead, as Hull did, as Newcastle did, as Swansea did, and you're almost assured of at least of point.
Liverpool, with Sunday still fresh in the memory, need to remind they can comprehensively beat these sides as they did so thoroughly last season, need to demonstrate that improving resilience Rodgers has often mentioned, and need to prove that Sunday truly was a fluke occurrence.
---
As has become depressingly usual, I won't be able to see this game live. Well, maybe live if I can sneak watching it on my phone, but not live enough for the usual match review. I might be tempted into writing a review late Wednesday night, but chances are that I'll combine the match review and match infographic into one big Thursday post.
Last four head-to-head:
5-0 Liverpool (h) 01.19.14
5-2 Liverpool (a) 09.29.12
3-0 Liverpool (a) 04.28.12
1-1 (h) 10.22.11
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-3 Hull (a); 3-3 Everton (a); 4-0 Fulham (h)
Norwich: 1-0 Palace (h); 1-2 Newcastle (a); 3-1 West Ham (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Sturridge, Suarez 9; Gerrard 3; Coutinho, Moses, Skrtel 1
Norwich: Fer, Hooper, Howson 2; Pilkington, Redmond, Snodgrass, Whittaker, van Wolfswinkel 1
Referee: Anthony Taylor
Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Johnson Sakho Agger Cissokho
Henderson Gerrard Lucas Coutinho
Aspas Suarez
Is that terrible taste from Sunday still stuck in your mouth, and you can't get rid of it no matter how many times you gargle? Yeah, me too. And I hope it's still stuck in the Liverpool players' mouths as well.
Norwich are seemingly the best possible opponents to remove that terrible taste. Liverpool have beaten Norwich by a combined 13-2 in the last three meetings and Suarez has especially delighted in sinking his teeth into the Canaries, tallying seven goals – including two hat-tricks at Carrow Road – as well as an assist.
There will clearly be a fair bit of rotation – much needed rotation – from Sunday's line-up, and Rodgers has more than a few choices how to set up his side.
Personally, I'd like to see Aspas – if fit enough to start after being left on the bench at Hull – used as something of a direct replacement for Sturridge. The same 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 formation with Henderson and Coutinho ostensibly on the flanks, Aspas and Suarez buzzing dangerously across the width and breadth of the final third, pulling center backs out of position for each other and the two players cutting in from the flanks. Preseason is often a poor barometer, but Aspas looked more capable as an out-and-out striker than he did playing as a deeper #10 when fit early in the season.
Admittedly, even at best, that doesn't fix Liverpool's midfield or defense, which – discounting the abomination at Hull – have been the bigger issues. This might well be a match to rest Lucas or Gerrard, to see what Liverpool's midfield looks like with one of those players missing, as the longer the season goes on, the less likely it seems they'll eventually began complementing each other's game.
And I'd finally like to see both Sakho and Agger starting, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. Lies, damned lies, and statistics, but Liverpool's conceded six goals in the last two matches, and Skrtel's the only center-back who started both. Agger was a part of of one of those, at Everton, but he's also started in all four of Liverpool's clean sheets this season; his other two starts came at Everton and in the narrow 0-1 loss to Southampton. Sakho's done little wrong as well. Norwich will pose threats, to be sure, and this won't be as easy as the last meeting between these two sides at Anfield, but this seems as good a match as any to try a Sakho-Agger pairing. Flanagan may also be rested in order to give Cissokho another chance, ostensibly providing more attacking threat from full-back, but starting Toure at right-back with Johnson on the left also seems an option.
However, I wouldn't be surprised to see something different than the above guess. Whether it's either Moses or Sterling retaining a place on the flank – surely it won't be both – or both Henderson/Allen and Gerrard ahead of Lucas, inverting the midfield triangle at the expense of a #10, or reverting to a back three in an attempt to stop the goals from flying in and feel more comfortable using Sakho and Agger at the same time. It's not as if Rodgers is lacking for options. Even if we're a long way from being convinced by some of those options.
Norwich have rebounded from being hammered by Arsenal, United, and City in the space of two weeks at the end of October/beginning of November, beating Palace and West Ham while narrowly losing at Newcastle over the last month.
Hull gave other sides the template for beating Liverpool, although it's not as if Steve Bruce's side exposed any new deficiencies. Set plays and counter-attacks, set plays and counter-attacks. In Hooper, Redmond, and Hoolahan, Norwich have three dangerous attackers capable of punishing any side on the break. Redmond's pace and talent with the ball at his feet frightens the most. Thankfully, their supremely talented set-play taker, Robert Snodgrass, will miss out through injury, but Liverpool have managed to concede set-play goals to far less talented takers and teams.
With Pilkington, Tettey, and van Wolfswinkel also absent through injury, Norwich's most likely XI is the same which beat Palace on Saturday: Ruddy; Martin, Bennett, Bassong, Olsson; Howson, Fer; Hoolalan, Elmander, Redmond; Hooper. Bradley Johnson may come in for Elmander, shifting Fer further forward for more heft in midfield, but that seems the only probable change.
Three of Norwich's four wins have been narrow 1-0 victories, and they've also drawn more than half of the fixtures played so far this season. That feeds into the aforementioned template for nullifying Liverpool. Keep it tight, prevent an early goal, frustrate the home side, and hope to nick one against the run of play. Take a first half lead, as Hull did, as Newcastle did, as Swansea did, and you're almost assured of at least of point.
Liverpool, with Sunday still fresh in the memory, need to remind they can comprehensively beat these sides as they did so thoroughly last season, need to demonstrate that improving resilience Rodgers has often mentioned, and need to prove that Sunday truly was a fluke occurrence.
---
As has become depressingly usual, I won't be able to see this game live. Well, maybe live if I can sneak watching it on my phone, but not live enough for the usual match review. I might be tempted into writing a review late Wednesday night, but chances are that I'll combine the match review and match infographic into one big Thursday post.
02 December 2013
Visualized: Liverpool 1-3 Hull City
Previous Match Infographics: Everton (a), Fulham (h), Arsenal (a), West Brom (h), Newcastle (a), Crystal Palace (h), Sunderland (a), Southampton (h), Swansea (a), Manchester United (h), Aston Villa (a), Stoke (h)
As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.
Joy. Like the worst of last season, where Liverpool "won" the possession and passing battles by some distance, but very much lost the war.
Because Liverpool's attacking third passing was dreadful, especially considering how much possession the side had. 65.5% attacking third pass accuracy is the third-lowest of the season, behind only Everton away and Southampton at home. As a reminder, those two teams are currently 5th and 7th in the division; Hull were 13th, barely, going into yesterday's match. And only 19% of Liverpool's completed passes took place in the attacking third. That's the second-lowest tally of the season, behind the 2-2 draw at Swansea, and well below Liverpool's season-long average of 27%.
Because Hull outshot Liverpool. Hull, who had averaged 11 shots per match and 14 shots conceded per match going into this fixture. And had scored just nine goals all season. Compared to Liverpool's average of 16 shots per match and 24 goals going into this fixture.
Because Liverpool didn't register a single shot in the center of the six-yard box. That had been Liverpool's most prolific zone, with 32% of all shots (60 of 187) and 46% of all goals (11 of 24) prior to this match. Just one of Liverpool's 11 shots came from a "prime location" – either the six-yard box or the center of the 18-yard box – the 71st minute chance that Moses should have buried, which, if converted, almost certainly would have led to a different result.
Because Liverpool's attackers, especially Suarez, couldn't find a way through Hull's packed defense.
Because Jordan Henderson, despite his numerous talents, is not the one to play as the attacking midfielder against a side who sets up like Hull sets up. Zero shots, just one chance created, and compare his and Coutinho's passes when they played in the #10 role.
Because Glen Johnson also had an absolute nightmare. This is not what an attacking fullback's passing chalkboard should look like. Especially when he's facing deep-lying wing-backs. Especially when he's needed in attack because the fullback on the opposite flank isn't getting forward very often. And what's with all those hoofs forward, Glen?
Because of that massive hole in the middle of Liverpool's half in the above "tackles and interceptions" chalkboard, unable to make the tackles or interceptions which could have stopped the moves for Hull's first and third goals before they became threatening. Huddlestone allowed to amble forward for the third goal, barely faster than walking pace, without a Liverpool player even thinking about marking him was especially infuriating, no matter how many players were caught upfield in search of the needed equalizer. 14 tackles is well below Liverpool's average of 23 per match this season, and three tackles is well below Lucas' average of 5.1 per match this season.
Some credit goes to Hull, for the determined defense, for taking advantage of Liverpool's numerous mistakes – both tactical and from individual players – but this loss feels very much self-inflicted and very, very costly.
As always, match data from Stats Zone and Squawka.
Joy. Like the worst of last season, where Liverpool "won" the possession and passing battles by some distance, but very much lost the war.
Because Liverpool's attacking third passing was dreadful, especially considering how much possession the side had. 65.5% attacking third pass accuracy is the third-lowest of the season, behind only Everton away and Southampton at home. As a reminder, those two teams are currently 5th and 7th in the division; Hull were 13th, barely, going into yesterday's match. And only 19% of Liverpool's completed passes took place in the attacking third. That's the second-lowest tally of the season, behind the 2-2 draw at Swansea, and well below Liverpool's season-long average of 27%.
Because Hull outshot Liverpool. Hull, who had averaged 11 shots per match and 14 shots conceded per match going into this fixture. And had scored just nine goals all season. Compared to Liverpool's average of 16 shots per match and 24 goals going into this fixture.
Because Liverpool didn't register a single shot in the center of the six-yard box. That had been Liverpool's most prolific zone, with 32% of all shots (60 of 187) and 46% of all goals (11 of 24) prior to this match. Just one of Liverpool's 11 shots came from a "prime location" – either the six-yard box or the center of the 18-yard box – the 71st minute chance that Moses should have buried, which, if converted, almost certainly would have led to a different result.
Because Liverpool's attackers, especially Suarez, couldn't find a way through Hull's packed defense.
Because Jordan Henderson, despite his numerous talents, is not the one to play as the attacking midfielder against a side who sets up like Hull sets up. Zero shots, just one chance created, and compare his and Coutinho's passes when they played in the #10 role.
Because Glen Johnson also had an absolute nightmare. This is not what an attacking fullback's passing chalkboard should look like. Especially when he's facing deep-lying wing-backs. Especially when he's needed in attack because the fullback on the opposite flank isn't getting forward very often. And what's with all those hoofs forward, Glen?
Because of that massive hole in the middle of Liverpool's half in the above "tackles and interceptions" chalkboard, unable to make the tackles or interceptions which could have stopped the moves for Hull's first and third goals before they became threatening. Huddlestone allowed to amble forward for the third goal, barely faster than walking pace, without a Liverpool player even thinking about marking him was especially infuriating, no matter how many players were caught upfield in search of the needed equalizer. 14 tackles is well below Liverpool's average of 23 per match this season, and three tackles is well below Lucas' average of 5.1 per match this season.
Some credit goes to Hull, for the determined defense, for taking advantage of Liverpool's numerous mistakes – both tactical and from individual players – but this loss feels very much self-inflicted and very, very costly.
01 December 2013
Liverpool 1-3 Hull City
Goals:
Livermore 20'
Gerrard 27'
Meyler 72'
Skrtel OG 87'
Pathetic. Abject, wretched failure. The worst performance since Rodgers arrived, the worst of Dalglish's reign all over again, almost a mirror injury of Liverpool's soul-killing 1-3 loss at Bolton that winter despite the massive differences in formation and personnel.
Rodgers gambled with the XI and paid dearly for it. I simply do not understand what he was trying to do today. Sure, both Sturridge and Coutinho were absent through injury, the latter only fit enough for 25 minutes off the bench – seriously, what went on in training this week? – and Liverpool have a lot of matches over the next month. Changes had to happen. But these were the wrong changes, and the wrong tactics.
Steve Bruce's Hull sit as deep as any side in the division, playing for counter-attacks and set plays. Bringing in Moses and Sterling – two speedy, direct wingers who thrive on counters and will try to dribble past every defender – made little sense at best. In practice, it played directly into Hull's hands, at fault for both the first goal and Liverpool's inability to create anything from open play.
So maybe Rodgers wanted to try to draw Hull out of their own half, invite a modicum of pressure before attacking at pace. If that was the case, playing four right-footed defenders when Hull's lone strength in attacking from open play is down their right flank, was just as unjustifiable. Sure, Agger's fitness needs to be managed and Flanagan deserved a second start. Playing four right-footed defenders was as bad a decision as playing four center-backs against Southampton. Arguably worse. And especially unforgivable with both Sakho and Agger on the bench. Yes, two of Hull's three goals took incredible lucky deflections, both off the helpless Martin Skrtel, but Liverpool should have never let them into those positions in the first place, and were deservedly, ruthlessly punished.
It's no excuse for the three goals that Liverpool conceded. A horrific giveaway for the first (from one of those personnel changes), an inexplicable failure to clear an unthreatening set play for the second (mainly from another of those personnel changes), carved wide open on the counter for the third when pressing in vain for an equalizer.
The match started ominously, with Liverpool camped in Hull's half for the first 20 minutes but somehow failing to create a single chance, whether in open play or through one of five set plays. Hull, earning an unnecessary corner, registered the first shot of the contest, created by two center-backs: Bruce's cross back in headed wide by Davies. So it was little surprise when Hull took the lead. I can't describe just how awful, how stupid Moses' giveaway was: poorly attempting to rainbow a chip over a defender when trying to break from his own half, succeeding in handing possession straight back to Hull when almost every Liverpool player had started to charge forward. A one-touch triangle around Lucas, then Livermore's shot from distance deflecting off of Skrtel's backside to loop over Mignolet. When you do something that mind-bogglingly dumb, the opposition deserves that little bit of luck.
That Liverpool responded in the best possible manner, equalizing within seven minutes, seemed to bode well. Once again a set play, once again a direct free kick. This time, from Steven Gerrard, wonderfully whipped around the wall when everyone in attendance expected Suarez to take. But Liverpool's disjointed attack couldn't take advantage of the momentum shift, Hull's deep defense continuing to deny Liverpool's dribble-happy attackers. Liverpool didn't manage an open play shot until the 45th minute, a tame Suarez effort straight at McGregor.
The second half continued in the same vein, the lone goal-scoring chance another Davies header wide from a Hull set play until Rodgers finally made a substitution, with Coutinho replacing Sterling in the 66th minute. And Liverpool should have taken the lead with one of their three chances in the subsequent five minutes, all set up by the Brazilian. But both Suarez and Henderson shot wide from outside the box, followed by the worst miss of the bunch, with Moses shooting directly after McGregor from point-blank range, released by Suarez's chip over the top and Coutinho's one-touch centering pass.
And then, because Liverpool, because football, Hull scored a minute later. A deep free kick headed skyward by a wide-open Davies, Skrtel and Toure colliding and hashing at a clearance, then Toure and Lucas failing to hoof Meyler's blocked effort away, it rebounding straight back to the ex-Sunderland midfielder, wide open for the shot. Cue Yakety Sax. It can still be a comedy of errors even if it isn't funny.
As against Everton last week, Liverpool piled forward in search of an equalizer, with Luis Alberto replacing Moses. And like against Everton, the lone chance for one came from a set play, with Suarez's dangerous free kick whistling wide of the far post. Unlike against Everton, Liverpool proceeded to concede when more open than a pervert's trench coat, Sagbo allowed to charge at the two defenders left in Liverpool's half before holding up play for Huddlestone, stepping around one retreating defender before his off-target shot was redirected into Liverpool's net by the again helpless Skrtel.
Once again, if Liverpool concede first, Liverpool are pretty much screwed. Before this match, Liverpool had allowed the first goal in 18 of the 50 league matches played under Rodgers. The record in those matches? Two wins, seven draws, nine losses. It's ten losses now. Conceding first in just 37% of their matches isn't horrific, but – for all of Liverpool's increasingly ability to respond to setbacks – averaging just 0.68 points per game when conceding first sure is.
No player stood out today, to say the absolute least, and Moses and Sterling (along with Johnson) certainly seemed the most culpable, but Suarez was almost as appalling. It's just harder to criticize the Uruguayan when he's been so crucial in the past. Five shots, but only one posed any threat, the aforementioned 83rd minute free kick. Zero chances created, zero successful take-ons (of six attempted), and just 67% pass accuracy (56% in the attacking third). He didn't have much help, but Suarez has single-handedly won matches for Liverpool without help. That certainly wasn't happening today.
Rodgers has gotten it right more than he's gotten it wrong, but that doesn't make today's decisions or result any easier to stomach. Liverpool will almost assuredly drop into fourth, possibly fifth, after Chelsea v Southampton and City beat Swansea. Given the difficulty of Liverpool's fixtures over the next month, made worse by Sturridge's absence, it'll take a hell of a response to stay amongst the Champions League places.
This month will define Liverpool's season. And it's started in the absolute worst manner.
Livermore 20'
Gerrard 27'
Meyler 72'
Skrtel OG 87'
Pathetic. Abject, wretched failure. The worst performance since Rodgers arrived, the worst of Dalglish's reign all over again, almost a mirror injury of Liverpool's soul-killing 1-3 loss at Bolton that winter despite the massive differences in formation and personnel.
Rodgers gambled with the XI and paid dearly for it. I simply do not understand what he was trying to do today. Sure, both Sturridge and Coutinho were absent through injury, the latter only fit enough for 25 minutes off the bench – seriously, what went on in training this week? – and Liverpool have a lot of matches over the next month. Changes had to happen. But these were the wrong changes, and the wrong tactics.
Steve Bruce's Hull sit as deep as any side in the division, playing for counter-attacks and set plays. Bringing in Moses and Sterling – two speedy, direct wingers who thrive on counters and will try to dribble past every defender – made little sense at best. In practice, it played directly into Hull's hands, at fault for both the first goal and Liverpool's inability to create anything from open play.
So maybe Rodgers wanted to try to draw Hull out of their own half, invite a modicum of pressure before attacking at pace. If that was the case, playing four right-footed defenders when Hull's lone strength in attacking from open play is down their right flank, was just as unjustifiable. Sure, Agger's fitness needs to be managed and Flanagan deserved a second start. Playing four right-footed defenders was as bad a decision as playing four center-backs against Southampton. Arguably worse. And especially unforgivable with both Sakho and Agger on the bench. Yes, two of Hull's three goals took incredible lucky deflections, both off the helpless Martin Skrtel, but Liverpool should have never let them into those positions in the first place, and were deservedly, ruthlessly punished.
It's no excuse for the three goals that Liverpool conceded. A horrific giveaway for the first (from one of those personnel changes), an inexplicable failure to clear an unthreatening set play for the second (mainly from another of those personnel changes), carved wide open on the counter for the third when pressing in vain for an equalizer.
The match started ominously, with Liverpool camped in Hull's half for the first 20 minutes but somehow failing to create a single chance, whether in open play or through one of five set plays. Hull, earning an unnecessary corner, registered the first shot of the contest, created by two center-backs: Bruce's cross back in headed wide by Davies. So it was little surprise when Hull took the lead. I can't describe just how awful, how stupid Moses' giveaway was: poorly attempting to rainbow a chip over a defender when trying to break from his own half, succeeding in handing possession straight back to Hull when almost every Liverpool player had started to charge forward. A one-touch triangle around Lucas, then Livermore's shot from distance deflecting off of Skrtel's backside to loop over Mignolet. When you do something that mind-bogglingly dumb, the opposition deserves that little bit of luck.
That Liverpool responded in the best possible manner, equalizing within seven minutes, seemed to bode well. Once again a set play, once again a direct free kick. This time, from Steven Gerrard, wonderfully whipped around the wall when everyone in attendance expected Suarez to take. But Liverpool's disjointed attack couldn't take advantage of the momentum shift, Hull's deep defense continuing to deny Liverpool's dribble-happy attackers. Liverpool didn't manage an open play shot until the 45th minute, a tame Suarez effort straight at McGregor.
The second half continued in the same vein, the lone goal-scoring chance another Davies header wide from a Hull set play until Rodgers finally made a substitution, with Coutinho replacing Sterling in the 66th minute. And Liverpool should have taken the lead with one of their three chances in the subsequent five minutes, all set up by the Brazilian. But both Suarez and Henderson shot wide from outside the box, followed by the worst miss of the bunch, with Moses shooting directly after McGregor from point-blank range, released by Suarez's chip over the top and Coutinho's one-touch centering pass.
And then, because Liverpool, because football, Hull scored a minute later. A deep free kick headed skyward by a wide-open Davies, Skrtel and Toure colliding and hashing at a clearance, then Toure and Lucas failing to hoof Meyler's blocked effort away, it rebounding straight back to the ex-Sunderland midfielder, wide open for the shot. Cue Yakety Sax. It can still be a comedy of errors even if it isn't funny.
As against Everton last week, Liverpool piled forward in search of an equalizer, with Luis Alberto replacing Moses. And like against Everton, the lone chance for one came from a set play, with Suarez's dangerous free kick whistling wide of the far post. Unlike against Everton, Liverpool proceeded to concede when more open than a pervert's trench coat, Sagbo allowed to charge at the two defenders left in Liverpool's half before holding up play for Huddlestone, stepping around one retreating defender before his off-target shot was redirected into Liverpool's net by the again helpless Skrtel.
Once again, if Liverpool concede first, Liverpool are pretty much screwed. Before this match, Liverpool had allowed the first goal in 18 of the 50 league matches played under Rodgers. The record in those matches? Two wins, seven draws, nine losses. It's ten losses now. Conceding first in just 37% of their matches isn't horrific, but – for all of Liverpool's increasingly ability to respond to setbacks – averaging just 0.68 points per game when conceding first sure is.
No player stood out today, to say the absolute least, and Moses and Sterling (along with Johnson) certainly seemed the most culpable, but Suarez was almost as appalling. It's just harder to criticize the Uruguayan when he's been so crucial in the past. Five shots, but only one posed any threat, the aforementioned 83rd minute free kick. Zero chances created, zero successful take-ons (of six attempted), and just 67% pass accuracy (56% in the attacking third). He didn't have much help, but Suarez has single-handedly won matches for Liverpool without help. That certainly wasn't happening today.
Rodgers has gotten it right more than he's gotten it wrong, but that doesn't make today's decisions or result any easier to stomach. Liverpool will almost assuredly drop into fourth, possibly fifth, after Chelsea v Southampton and City beat Swansea. Given the difficulty of Liverpool's fixtures over the next month, made worse by Sturridge's absence, it'll take a hell of a response to stay amongst the Champions League places.
This month will define Liverpool's season. And it's started in the absolute worst manner.
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