11 January 2011

Liverpool at Blackpool 01.12.11

3pm ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
1-2 Blackpool (h) 10.24.10
2-2 (h) 01.09.71
0-0 (a) 08.17.70
1-3 Blackpool (h) 05.13.67

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 United (a); 1-3 Blackburn (a); 2-1 Bolton (h)
Blackpool: 0-2 Southampton (a); 1-2 Brum (h); 0-1 Man City (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Torres 6; Gerrard 4; Kuyt, Maxi 3; Kyrgiakos, Ngog 2; Babel, Cole, Johnson, Skrtel 1
Blackpool: Campbell 6; Harewood, Varney 5; Adam 3; Taylor-Fletcher 2; Baptiste, Eardley, Evatt, Phillips, Vaughan 1

Referee: Michael Oliver

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Aurelio
Meireles Lucas
Kuyt Cole Maxi
Torres

The return of the King in the league, in the midst of a crush of games where we're sure to see rotation of some sort.

Gerrard's suspension begs the first lineup question: will he be replaced by Cole or Shelvey? A start for Cole would necessitate a slight change in formation from the predominantly 4-1-4-1 we saw against the Mancs, as Cole's even more an attacking midfielder than Gerrard. But Shelvey could also slot straight into the formation as he did when Liverpool were down to 10 men on Sunday. That Shelvey saw any time in such an important match, let alone when Liverpool were behind and down a man, seemingly shows the faith that Dalglish has in the player.

Another talking point is whether Glen Johnson will walk back into the side after missing Sunday's match when his wife went into labor. Martin Kelly deservedly won many man-of-the-match awards, having now impressed against the likes of Lyon, Chelsea, and United. But Noel at Liverpool Offside wrote an intelligent (if not wholly well-received) piece about the danger of expecting too much too soon from young players. In addition, while Johnson struggled against Blackburn in his last start – and against Blackpool in these sides' last meeting – he's still a very good, if predominantly attacking, right back. No matter Kelly's potential, I'd expect Johnson to return if available. Kelly will have his chances this season.

There are also questions about Agger and Aurelio's ability to play three games in a week. Both will be more valuable against Everton. We saw Danny Wilson on the bench against United; if Agger or Aurelio miss out, maybe it'll be an opportunity for the young Scot, who Dalglish had a hand in convincing to come to Liverpool. At the same time, it's not really a game for Kyrgiakos, with the speedy D.J. Campbell as Blackpool's main threat. Agger's more likely to play than Aurelio – when Agger's fit, there have been fewer concerns over consecutive games than with the Brazilian left back – which means if there are any changes to the back line, Konchesky will probably return to the XI. Fair warning. Be nice.

Other possibilities? Maybe a start for Babel? He played well off the bench on Sunday, offering a more direct attack with Liverpool up against the wall. And while it's an exceptionally tenuous comparison, Dalglish used a similar tactic when in charge of Liverpool in the 1980s – one "winger" tucked in (Kuyt or Maxi) and one far more pacey and direct (Babel in this version, Barnes in the '80s – which is where the comparison becomes stretched). Meireles, who had a tough return from injury on Sunday, could also be withheld if he's not fully fit.

Blackpool are level on points with Liverpool with a game in hand but an inferior goal difference. They're winless in their last three – but ran both City and Birmingham close – yet still haven't suffered the expect fall back to Earth (read: the relegation zone) after such an impressive start to the season. Manager Ian Holloway remains one of my absolute favorites, and has been doing himself favors by talking up Dalglish and Liverpool this week.

Blackpool rested players in FA Cup, making nine changes from the team which faced Birmingham mid-week. The Seasiders' other joint-second top scorer, Marlon Harewood, will miss out through injury, as will starting goalkeeper Matt Gilks, who notably denied Kyrgiakos late late late equalizer in October. Blackpool will almost assuredly stick with Holloway's 4-3-3/4-5-1 variant with Campbell, Taylor-Fletcher, and Varney up front; Adam, Vaughan, and Phillips (or possibly Grandin if he recovers in time) in midfield; and Cathcart, Eardley, Evatt, and Crainey in defense. Ghana's keeper Richard Kingson, formerly of Wigan and Birmingham, is Gilks' back-up.

It's easy to get ramped up for an emotional return against the Mancs. Liverpool's best match of the season had been the 2-0 win against then-league leading Chelsea; other than the embarrassment suffered at Man City, the side's been better against tough opposition. They've rallied when underdogs. As Andy Gray would say, it's a bit harder to do it on a wet Wednesday in Blackpool. Dalglish had less than 24 hours in charge before facing the Mancs; we should see more of his preferred tactics and ideas against the Tangerines. And picking up league wins, especially away from Anfield, remains utterly crucial.

09 January 2011

Liverpool 0-1 Manchester United

Reina
Kelly Skrtel Agger Aurelio
Meireles Lucas
Kuyt Gerrard Maxi
Torres

Goals:
Giggs 2' (pen)

So much for a storybook return.

1st minute, Webb gives a penalty for Berbatov's clear dive. 32nd minute, Webb shows Gerrard a straight red for a tackle similar to one Rafael went unpunished for. Welcome to the FA Cup at Old Trafford. Somehow, it's still Roy Hodgson's fault.

In all seriousness, aside from the result, I'm actually happy. Okay, happy may not be the right word – it's a loss to the bloody Mancs after all – but we've had very few signs of positivity for a long time. The team selection, formation, style of play, and player desire were all a vast improvement on the dross we've been treated to all season long. Dalglish's substitutions were ambitious, and he wasn't afraid for slay sacred cows. Were it not for an amazingly soft – and incorrect – penalty after less than 60 seconds, Liverpool would have gotten a draw despite being down to 10 men for an hour.

Liverpool's higher back line let Berbatov in right away, but Agger made no contact and the linesman didn't flag. Howard Webb, in a far inferior position, saw things differently, immediately pointing to the spot. Webb gave Liverpool a penalty in the league meeting at Old Trafford earlier in the season. Alex Ferguson obviously wasn't going to allow him such free reign in this match, and Giggs made no mistake from the spot with a well-taken effort.

But Liverpool heads didn't drop. Unlike in every single away match we've seen this season, they didn't sit back. Liverpool pressed high, tried to play the ball out of defense, out-numbered United in midfield because of the Gerrard-Lucas-Meireles axis, and had far more possession. Liverpool were still disjointed in the final third as Torres continued to under-perform, but positives were readily evident.

The penalty was an unfair body blow. But the red card made certain Liverpool wouldn't get back into the game. And, as per usual, it's a contentious decision. Any time you go into a tackle with two feet, you're asking for trouble. But it's hard to stomach when we saw similar from Rafael earlier in the match, Gerrard got the ball, and Carrick rolled around as if he were shot. It certainly wasn't worse than De Jong's kung fu challenge on Alonso, but the World Cup final wasn't at Old Trafford.

And even with 10 men, Liverpool limited United chances. It took until the 38th minute for the Mancs to create a shot from open play – Nani's tame effort easily saved by Reina. But Evans roaming free in the box in first half injury time, heading a corner off the post, set the tone for the second half as Liverpool's 10 men tired.

Chicharito headed Fletcher's cross over in the 48th. Berbatov volleyed over after Reina could only palm a cross under pressure from the Mexican striker in the 56th. Kuszczak was called into action on an Aurelio free kick angled towards the top corner against the run of play in the 65th, but soon after, Reina had to make five saves in quick succession, somehow impossibly keeping the scoreline at 0-1.

Also heartening were Dalglish's substitutions. Babel and Shelvey replaced Maxi and the underwhelming Meireles with 30 minutes to play; that Shelvey saw action seems to confirm the high regard Kenny supposedly holds Jonjo in. And in the 77th, Ngog replaced the ineffective and jaded Torres, who – in his defense – was always going to struggle with a man disadvantage. The changes not only demonstrated an attacking intent, but a willingness to shake things up. Hodgson lived in perpetual fear of removing Torres. Dalglish gave no thought to it.

Babel had a couple of chances, forcing a save from Kuszczak from the top of the box and heading wide at the near post, but United were comfortable with Liverpool's dead legs and an extra man (or two, if we're still counting Webb). It's always painful to lose to United, but that Liverpool finally looks like a team is a bigger positive than going out of the FA Cup to that lot.

4-2-3-1 – although as much a 4-1-4-1 with Lucas often deeper than Gerrard and Meireles for those 32 minutes – was the correct formation. Kelly was man of the match, silencing Giggs and Evra for long stretches. Liverpool's defense was vastly improved, again, with Agger and Aurelio involved. Reina's string of saves was absolutely mind-blowing. Kuyt was more effective than in recent poor performances, although this type of match suits him down to the ground. But most important was the self-belief, something desperately missing for months, even after unfairly going behind and then going down to 10 men.

Gerrard's expected three-match absence – although there's a slight chance the suspension will be overturned (Liverpool will appeal) – means that Cole will probably replace him in a straight swap. It's not the end of the world in that department. And if Liverpool continue in this vein, we won't be worrying about being in the bottom half of the table for much longer.

I cannot wait for Blackpool on Wednesday. And I could not be happier that feeling's finally present after dreading matches for the last six months.

08 January 2011

Long Live the King

"Dalglish told me that we're the ones who make people's dreams come true. The fans can't play, so they live their dreams through us." - Fernando Torres

Dalglish in, Hodgson out. Finally. It's been a long, long wait.

It goes without saying, but from here on out, I'm done on the Hodgson vitriol. I apologize to those who thought it offensive and out-of-control over the last few months. I am irrational, petty, and quick to overreact. Thankfully, it's over now. He's a nice guy, it didn't work out. Time to move on as soon as possible.

But I can't help cite a few statistics as a requiem.

• Premier League win percentage:
Roy Hodgson: 35%
Rafa Benitez: 55%
Gerard Houllier: 49%
Roy Evans: 47%
Graeme Souness: 41%

• One league away win in 10 attempts, scoring only seven goals in the process.

• Goal difference of -3 after 20 games.

• 4 points above the relegation zone after 20 games.

• Liverpool hasn't been 12th place or lower after January since the team was relegated in 1953-54. That was the last season Liverpool had 9 or more losses after 20 games.

This is why Roy Hodgson's leaving by "mutual consent." Not because of FSG's itchy trigger finger. Not because of fan power. Not because of the 'shit squad left by the nasty Spaniard.' Cold hard stats, cold hard reality, and massively poor results. That's why he's leaving.

And yes, this is the outcome I'd hoped for.

The comparisons to Kevin Keegan and Newcastle are facile and wrong-headed. Yes, Dalglish hasn't managed in more than a decade, but his record at Liverpool, Blackburn, and even Newcastle was light years better than Keegan's with the Geordies, Fulham, England, and Manchester City. Dalglish has won the league title four times, with two separate clubs. Keegan finished runner-up twice, and won Division One (the current Championship) twice. Liverpool's current squad, despite the recent trouble, is far better than the relegated Newcastle team.

Many have written about the bind this puts FSG in. What happens if Dalglish isn't successful? What happens if he's "too successful?" First, even out of the hot-seat as long as he's been, I doubt he'll replicate the horrendous results we've seen so far this season. The respect from players he's rightfully earned and resulting morale boost should be enough to raise form. And that's not even considering tactics; it's hard to suggest what Liverpool's style will look like because of Kenny's extended sabbatical, but I doubt we'll see so many players out of positions; rigid, antiquated tactics; and a complete refusal to press higher up the pitch. If Dalglish does well this season, excellent, give him the job for as long as he wants. FSG are here for the long-term; they will get the chance to hire "their manager" in time.

This is a brilliant, brilliant day. I can't remember the last time football made me so happy. Which is how sport should be.

And just in time for a trip to Manchester. Adds a bit of luster back onto that match-up.

07 January 2011

Liverpool at Manchester United 01.09.11

8:30am ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
2-3 United (a) 09.19.10
1-2 United (a) 03.21.10
2-0 Liverpool (h) 10.25.09
4-1 Liverpool (a) 03.14.09

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-3 Blackburn (a); 2-1 Bolton (h); 0-1 Wolves (h)
United: 2-1 Stoke (h); 2-1 West Brom (a); 1-1 Brum (a)

Goalscorers (all competitions):
Liverpool: Gerrard, Ngog 8; Torres 6; Kuyt 4; Maxi 3; Babel, Cole, Jovanovic, Kyrgiakos 2; Johnson, Lucas, Skrtel 1
United: Berbatov 15; Chicharito 9; Nani 7; Park 6; Fletcher, Owen, Rooney, Vidic 3; Bebe 2; Anderson, Evra, Gibson, Giggs, Macheda, Obertan, Scholes, Smalling, Valencia 1

Referee: Howard Webb

Howard Webb has to be in charge of any Liverpool/United match. It's in the Premier League rules. Look it up.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Aurelio
Kuyt Meireles Lucas Maxi
Gerrard
Torres

The unbeaten Mancs (yes, I know they lost in the League Cup to Jonathan Spector, but bear with me) against a Liverpool side that can't win away. A lame duck manager and morale plummeting through the floor. The narrative's already written. Either United will hammer the last nail in the coffin or Liverpool will complete a miracle on grass in beating in the Evil Empire. And either way, I've never been less anxious over a match between these two sides.

Liverpool will name a stronger team than against Blackburn even though the FA Cup means far less than Liverpool's terrible league position. Ideally, it will have Gerrard behind Torres with Lucas and Meireles in central midfield, but I'm not holding my breath.

Agger and Aurelio should both return, having been rested for Wednesday's match and having played far better than the counterparts who took their places against Blackburn. Cole might play instead of Maxi – Kuyt will reclaim a starting spot as well – but I hope that won't be the case.

Meanwhile, United also rested players in their last league match, with Ferguson ready to return Rooney, Ferdinand, and van der Sar to the starting lineup. Berbatov, who tallied a hat-trick when these sides met in September, is in excellent form. United also primarily uses 4-4-2 this season, but with players such as Nani and the 87-year-old Giggs, has the ability to get outside Liverpool's narrow back-line to excellent effect, as in the 2-3 league loss at Old Trafford. At least Poulsen and Konchesky aren't likely to start in this meeting.

And after the match, no matter the result, Slur Alex will tell us that Roy's had an impossible job made harder by the shit squad left by the nasty Spaniard and should be given until the end of season.

Happy days.

End scene. Cue curtain.

05 January 2011

Liverpool 1-3 Blackburn

Reina
Johnson Kyrgiakos Skrtel Konchesky
Cole Gerrard Lucas Maxi
Torres Ngog

Goals:
Olsson 32'
Benjani 38' 57'
Gerrard 81'

The most embarrassing defeat in a season full of them.

We saw a side more shapeless than against Blackpool. A loss more unexpected than the 2-0 drubbing at Stoke, and far more unexpected that the deserved thumping suffered at Manchester City. It may have been less embarrassing than being beaten by Everton, but it was far less respectable as well. That Gerrard scored a consolation ten minutes from time and missed a penalty (which he won) with five remaining shouldn't obscure matters. Liverpool only marginally got back into the game because Blackburn shut off and starting defending their penalty box, in contrast to the usual harrying tactics that have beaten Hodgson's Liverpool with depressing regularity. If today isn't the straw that breaks the camel's back, the camel's utterly impervious.

And again, defensive mistakes were the culprit. Johnson switched off, allowing Olsson in behind, for the first. Kyrgiakos was beaten all ends up by Benjani, of all strikers, for the second. And Johnson and Skrtel both waved Hoillett towards goal from an impossible position for the third, with the midfielder easily squaring for Benjani's brace. It's little coincidence that defensive uncertainty returned after Agger and Aurelio reclaimed to their usual positions – the bench.

But Liverpool's insipidity again stemmed from a completely uncoordinated attack bereft of any ideas. As has happened all too often away from Anfield, there was zero plan once Liverpool got into Blackburn's half. Shakier and far more prone to punting up-field with Kyrgiakos and Konchesky back in the line-up, we had the added bonus of more Cole giveaways when attempting to run with the ball. And Cole actually created most of the offense before Gerrard fired back at the end, with a strike across goal in the 27th and the first shot to actually trouble Bunn in the 74th.

There's little point in a blow-by-blow match review: today was basically every away match but Bolton with the added bonus of conceding more than usual while actually scoring a consolation in the process. And make no mistake, no player did himself credit today. Once again, Gerrard came alive in the final ten minutes – and shouldn't be blamed for missing one penalty out of the countless he's taken – but spent the previous 80 far too far away from the action in attack yet again because of Hodgson's love affair with 4-4-2 and the captain's supposedly preferred position. Of course, morale has been plummeting through the floor for the duration of the season; it's hard to forgive, but it's understandable that the will to live disappeared after conceding first in yet another away match.

Liverpool have now lost one less away game than through all of the previous horrific campaign, conceding just one less goal as well. Of course, that's comparing 10 games to 18. Liverpool were never in 11th last season, let alone as late as January, having conceded more goals than they've scored. Five points from the bottom of the table, 19 points from the top. Blaming the previous manager is the trendy thing to do amongst the English fourth estate, but this season's dire statistics both home and away fall mainly at the feet of the current gaffer. But he simply can't be blamed; the nasty Spaniard lost the empire, not our nice old respectable English bloke.

Today's tactics were once again incomprehensible. Agger and Aurelio were "rested" with the FA Cup in mind – even though a cup run does little to alleviate the perilous league position – and the defense completely lost the positives from Saturday's match. All four made costly individual mistakes while resorting to the usual hoofs from the back instead of building up play. Blackburn, with players like Nelsen and Samba – neither of whom started in the previous meeting – ate up balls over the top and crosses from the flank, but Liverpool didn't deviate from the attacking "plan," which led to Ngog rendered irrelevant and Torres completely frustrated. As said above, Gerrard's attacking talents are often wasted when a central midfielder in a 4-4-2, especially away from home (in contrast to the magic weaved against Bolton). Today did not make sense and it was readily evident from the opening whistle and in the final score.

It would be nice symmetry if Hodgson lost his job after losing to the last English team he ruined. It's impossible (or massively depressing) to think that he'll be in the dugout come Sunday.

04 January 2011

Liverpool at Blackburn 01.05.11

3pm ET, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (h) 10.24.10
2-1 Liverpool (h) 02.28.10
0-0 (a) 12.05.09
4-0 Liverpool (h) 04.11.09

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Bolton (h); 0-1 Wolves (h); 0-0 Utrecht (h)
Blackburn: 0-3 Sunderland (a); 3-1 West Brom (a); 0-2 Stoke (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Torres 6; Gerrard, Kuyt, Maxi 3; Kyrgiakos, Ngog 2; Babel, Cole, Johnson, Skrtel 1
Blackburn: Kalinic, Pedersen 4; MB Diouf, Nelsen 3; Emerton, Roberts, Samba 2; Benjani, Dunn, Givet, Nzonzi 1

Referee: Andre Marriner

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Aurelio
Kuyt Gerrard Lucas Maxi
Torres Ngog

The ankle injury which saw Meireles removed from Saturday's match in the 20th minute rules him out of Wednesday's match at Blackburn. Otherwise, there's little reason to change the line-up which beat Bolton in the dying seconds.

Most important will be keeping Agger and Aurelio in the squad. Who would have thought that adding two classy defenders would help Liverpool keep possession and play the ball out of defense? Granted, both are frequent injury concerns, and Aurelio rarely played two games in four days in his best spells under Benitez, but if at all possible, both defenders should start. And yet, I can't help but fear Liverpool will return to a backline of Johnson-Soto-Skrtel-Konchesky away from the comforts of Anfield.

In addition, the manager might choose to rest key players with an FA Cup trip to United imminent – he spoke of that possibility earlier today. However – and I'm sure this won't be a popular opinion – if key players need to be rested, do it in the FA Cup. Yes, I'm well aware who Liverpool's opponents are in that competition, but given that the club is currently struggling in the league, that's where the priority lies. Liverpool will need players like Gerrard and Torres if they're going to break the all-consuming away day voodoo tomorrow.

The meeting between these two sides in October was one of the first games where Liverpool actually played to its potential. Coming after embarrassing losses to Blackpool and Everton, the Reds actually took the game to its opponents, maintaining possession and creating chances. A comical own goal equalizer nearly killed any momentum, but Torres found a winner minutes after conceding. The emphatic smackdown had to be one of the reasons Blackburn's new owners dismissed Allardyce upon arrival. Yes, even though that happened a month and a half after Liverpool's win. Blackburn were that pathetic at Anfield, despite the relatively close result.

Rovers' form has been hit-and-miss since Steve Kean took over as caretaker four matches ago. Blackburn looked impressive in a 3-1 win at West Brom, but were easily beaten by both Sunderland (3-0 away) and Stoke (2-0 at home), and could only draw relegation strugglers West Ham at Ewood Park.

Blackburn currently have the same number of points as Liverpool, although with an inferior goal differential and having played two more games. Like Liverpool's last opponents, Blackburn also have a reduced squad list: Kalinic is suspended, Emerton is at the Asian Cup, and Andrews, Grella, Jones, Nzonzi, Roberts, and Paul Robinson are injured. Robinson was especially influential when these two sides met at Anfield. But Blackburn still have the Diouf brothers (FYI: they're not really brothers), especially the infernal El-Hadji, while Pedersen is perpetually a threat on set plays. Even with a weakened squad, Blackburn still have ways to punish Liverpool mistakes.

Obviously, the biggest concerns rest on the fact that this is an away match. We're into the New Year and still wondering when, if ever, Liverpool will be able to replicate Anfield performances on the road. The late win over Bolton in October remains the only away victory of the season. Decent matches against the likes of Blackburn, Villa, and West Ham didn't lead to subsequent away success. If Liverpool are ever going to rise above the 'around 10th' mid-table mire, they need to start winning these winnable away matches.

03 January 2011

2010-11 Midseason Stats Comparison

For the fifth year running. Not for those with weak stomachs.

Points total after 19 games:
10/11: 25
09/10: 30
08/09: 42
07/08: 37
06/07: 34

Results over 19 games:
10/11: 7 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
09/10: 9 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses
08/09: 12 wins, 6 draws, 1 loss
07/08: 10 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses
06/07: 10 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses

League position after 19 games:
10/11: 9th
09/10: 7th
08/09: 1st
07/08: 4th
06/07: 3rd

# of points behind 1st place:
10/11: -16
09/10: -12
08/09: +1
07/08: -10, with a game in hand
06/07: -13

Goals scored after 19 games:
10/11: 23
09/10: 36
08/09: 30
07/08: 33
06/07: 28

Goals against after 19 games:
10/11: 24
09/10: 25
08/09: 12
07/08: 12
06/07: 15

Home Goals:
10/11: 17
09/10: 26
08/09: 16
07/08: 20
06/07: 20

Away Goals:
10/11: 6
09/10: 10
08/09: 14
07/08: 13
06/07: 8

Clean Sheets:
10/11: 6
09/10: 6
08/09: 11
07/08: 10
06/07: 10

Goal scorers:
10/11: Torres 6; Gerrard, Kuyt, Maxi 3; Kyrgiakos, Ngog 2; Babel, Cole, Johnson, Skrtel 1
09/10: Torres 11; Benayoun, Gerrard, Kuyt 5; Ngog 4; Babel, Johnson 2; Skrtel 1
08/09: Gerrard 6; Keane, Kuyt, Torres 5; Alonso, Riera 2; Arbeloa, Benayoun, Babel, Carragher 1
07/08: Torres 9; Gerrard 7; Babel, Kuyt, Voronin 3; Alonso, Benayoun 2; Hyypia, Sissoko 1
06/07: Kuyt 6; Bellamy 5; Alonso, Gerrard 3; Crouch, Garcia, Gonzalez 2; Agger, Carragher, Fowler, Riise 1

# of games Liverpool failed to score in:
10/11: 5 [Wolves (h), Stoke (a), Everton (a), Brum (a), City (a)]
09/10: 4 [Chelsea (a), Sunderland (a), Blackburn (a), Pompey (a)]
08/09: 4 [Villa (a), Stoke (h), Fulham (h), West Ham (h)]
07/08: 5 [Pompey (a), Birmingham (h), Blackburn (a), United (h), City (a)]
06/07: 7 [Everton (a), Chelsea (a), Bolton (a), United (a), Arsenal (a), Boro (a), Portsmouth (h)]

Home form:
10/11: 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; 20 points out of 30
09/10: 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; 20 points out of 30
08/09: 6 wins, 4 draws; 22 points out of 30
07/08: 4 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss; 16 points out of 27
06/07: 8 wins, 2 draws; 26 points out of 30

Away form:
10/11: 1 win, 2 draws, 6 losses; 5 points out of 27
09/10: 3 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses; 10 points out of 27
08/09: 6 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; 20 points out of 27
07/08: 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss; 21 points out of 30
06/07: 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses; 8 points out of 27

I guess it's not all bad news.

Liverpool conceded one more goal at this point last season. They scored one fewer goal at Anfield in 2008-09. There were two more scoreless performances in '06-07. Liverpool kept the same number of clean sheets last season and had the exact same home form. And I was assuming historic lows in all regards...

Otherwise, this season's seen Liverpool fewest wins, most losses, lowest points total and league placement, and fewest goals scored after 19 games since I started this blog. It's the first time that Liverpool have conceded more league goals than they've scored. As has become painfully apparent, away form is the all-consuming problem. Five points out of 27 is indescribably horrific. That's relegation form. But Liverpool is only two points worse at Anfield than they were in 2008-09, when they led the league at this point. That's the saving grace, which is why the insipid loss against Wolves last Wednesday was so worrisome. Home form is all Liverpool's had.

Liverpool's points per game after 19 games gives us a fairly safe estimate for the end-of-season total. Liverpool's currently averaging 1.32 points per game. Over the last four seasons, the differential between points per game at mid-season and the end of the season has been 0.08 or less.


Points Per Game after 19 end-of-season
2009-10 1.58 (30) 1.66 (63)
2008-09 2.21 (42) 2.26 (86)
2007-08 1.95 (37) 2 (76)
2006-07 1.79 (34) 1.79 (68)

The respective differential over the last four seasons is +0.08, +0.05, +0.05, and 0. If Liverpool increased their points-per-game record by 0.08 over the rest of this season, they'll end with 53 points. If form remains the same, they'll end with 50. I highly doubt either of those will secure 4th; it would be lucky to earn an Europa League place. 53 points would have gotten 9th in '09-10, 7th in '08-09, 9th in '07-08, and 10th in '06-07. Right around the position Liverpool currently occupies.

It will take a vast improvement over the second half of the season to reach last season's "poor" results. Liverpool would have to win 38 points over the rest of the campaign to equal last season's total of 63, an average of two points per game. That's title-contending form; United's currently the only team hitting that mark.

All we can really hope for is improvement. Especially away from Anfield.

01 January 2011

Liverpool 2-1 Bolton

Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Aurelio
Kuyt Meireles Lucas Maxi
Ngog Torres

Goals:
K Davies 43'
Torres 49'
Cole 90+2'

Improved tactics and hard work lead to the right result. It's the first time this season that Liverpool have gone behind in a league match and went on to win. Had it not taken until January 1 to achieve that result, and had Liverpool played like this all season, both Liverpool and Hodgson wouldn't be in their respective situations.

The changes to the starting XI showed more ambition and absolutely contributed to this victory. But the catalyst was the enforced substitution made in the 21st minute. And that catalyst was Liverpool's usual catalyst: Steven Gerrard. Rested following Wednesday's match, Gerrard had to come on when Meireles pulled up. And the captain was at the heart of both goals, pulling the strings throughout. The Meireles/Lucas pairing had done well prior to the injury, and the Portuguese's exit looked to be a loss, but today was one of those days where Gerrard dragged the team to victory. Yet, obviously, it wouldn't have been possible without a complete team effort.

By halftime, it looked a calamitous result in keeping with this campaign's leitmotif. Liverpool had started off better, actually keeping possesdion, aided by the changes in defense; both Agger and Aurelio started moves by keeping the ball on the floor instead of losing possession time and time again with hoofs from deep. It brought Torres into the game far more than against Wolves, but the striker misfired throughout the first half. None the less, at least the intent was there. Maxi, returned to the starting XI, had Liverpool's two best chances, seeing a ball across the box cleared off the line and a header ping off the crossbar.

Misfortune soon reared its head. Having conceded far too many soft free kicks in their own half, Liverpool succumbed two minutes before the interval. Aurelio saw yellow for a foul on the flank, Taylor whipped in a free kick, and Kevin Davies out-jumped Johnson as Skrtel drifted away, another appalling breakdown of man-to-man marking. Soon after, Lucas missed an absolute sitter of an equalizer, unable to tap-in Kuyt's chipped cross. The kicks kept coming.

But Liverpool finally demonstrated resiliency. Torres smashed in an equalizer four minutes after the break with a gorgeous volley following a flowing move: Johnson to Ngog laid off to Gerrard, whose inch-perfect cross put the chance on a plate for Torres. Four minutes after that, a quick counter from Reina to Gerrard ended with the striker shooting just wide of the far post.

And Liverpool kept battling. Yes, the play broke down in the final third frequently, and Bolton had chances on the counter. Liverpool could have a had a penalty in the 68th when a prone Mark Davies handled the ball, but the situation could have been reversed in the 87th, when Lucas incidentally handled in Liverpool's box. Reina was forced into saves from Mark Davies and Klasnic, while the Croatian substitute also turned an effort wide after two crucial blocks by Liverpool's fullbacks.

But the battling, the increased tempo, and the far better morale finally paid off, and it was Liverpool's maligned substitute who won the game in injury time. Joe Cole replaced Ngog with 10 minutes to play, and his entrance was followed by increased Bolton pressure and the two of the three aforementioned chances. But in the second minute of injury time, Liverpool pushed and Gerrard delivered another excellent cross from the right, which bounced off a Bolton defender under pressure from Maxi at the back post for Cole to tap in from inches out. Any question of offside eliminated by the Bolton defender's touch, it was Cole's first league goal. He couldn't have picked a better time to score it.

Gerrard may have been man of the match, a tremendous performance yet an arguable fluke because of Meireles' unfortunate injury, but the pre-match changes set the tone. Agger's return couldn't have been more welcome – his desire to play the ball out pervaded the entire backline, obviously helped by Aurelio's similar predilection. The defense looked far steadier throughout, and it led to passing and moving instead of hoofing and moping.

Liverpool needed this win. Had previous performances and results not been so demonstrably poor, a draw wouldn't have been the worst result. Liverpool showed improvement and Bolton were once again difficult opposition. But three points were thoroughly necessary today. That they're coupled with Liverpool's first come-from-behind win in the league in more than a year and Liverpool's first late winner since these sides last met in October can only help matters.