oh you beauty

Liverpool v Manchester United 01.28.12

2012-01-27T09:20:00.002-05:00

7:45am ET, live in the US on FSC.

Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 10.15.11
3-1 Liverpool (h) 03.06.11
0-1 United (a; FA Cup) 01.09.11
2-3 United (a) 09.19.10

Previous round:
Liverpool: 5-1 Oldham (h)
United: 3-2 City (a)

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 City (h); 1-3 Bolton (a); 0-0 Stoke (h)
United: 2-1 Arsenal (a); 3-0 Bolton (h); 3-2 City (a)

Goalscorers (all competitions):
Liverpool: Bellamy, Suarez 8; Gerrard 5; Carroll, Maxi 4; Adam, Skrtel 2; Downing, Henderson, Johnson, Kelly, Kuyt, Shelvey 1
United: Rooney 18; Welbeck 9; Berbatov, Nani 8; Chicharito 6; Valencia 4; Giggs, Owen, Young 3; Anderson, Carrick, Fletcher, Jones, Park, Smalling 2; Macheda, Scholes 1

Referee: ~~Martin Atkinson~~ Mark Halsey

Atkinson was supposed to be in charge, but pulled out Thursday with a virus. Halsey, who hasn't refereed Liverpool in more than a year, is his replacement.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Gerrard Adam
Kuyt Henderson Downing
Carroll

A normal, subdued cup tie, then. Back to routine business after Wednesday's big match. What? Oh, right. Crap. So, do we just talk about the football, humming with fingers in ears pretending nothing but the match exists, hoping that the on-field play is all that'll be worth discussing? Yes. Yes we do.

Who starts for Liverpool is obviously, as always, contingent on who's fit after Wednesday's exertion.

It goes without saying that Bellamy has been Liverpool's best player recently, the main and sometimes only goal threat during Suarez's suspension. But he played 87 grueling minutes on Wednesday, which came after 90 minutes at Bolton. His knees have held up far better than expected (*knocks feverishly on wood*) but three games in a week, especially this week, seems a very long bridge too far.

Admittedly, there are worries about almost every player involved after City, after 90 minutes of high-pressure, heavy pressing, at times end-to-end football. And it's not as if Liverpool are spoilt for options. But that XI was basically Liverpool's best possible XI, and Dalglish will change it as little as possible.

The continuing absence of Spearing and Lucas pretty much demands three in central midfield based on recent evidence, and those three almost certainly have to be Gerrard, Adam, and Henderson. Dalglish spoke about possibly having Spearing back, which would be a massive boon, but I'm doubtful given that he couldn't make the bench two days ago.

Neither Kuyt nor Downing has set the world afire from the flanks, although both did well on Wednesday, but Maxi's been little better lately, we've already discussed Bellamy, and Shelvey's seen few chances. While it's grounded in less concrete concerns, I also fear for Agger, who's only recently gotten over a knock picked up in the first leg against City, caught flat-footed for City's near-winner second goal. And Carroll remains that disappointing expensive elephant in the blah blah blah you get the picture we've been here before.

United have multiple fitness problems of their own. Jones and Nani were injured against Arsenal, joining Young, Cleverly, Owen, Fletcher, and Vidic on the casualty list. Rooney, Ferdinand, and Anderson are also doubtful, but will play – especially the first two – if at all possible. Pity that United are one of the teams most capable of overcoming so many injuries.

The Mancs continue to be a creaky but deflatingly-effective crushing machine, three points behind City and on a three-game win streak having beaten both City and Arsenal following a two game slide against Newcastle and Blackburn bracketing the New Year. Even with the aforementioned players absent, Welbeck, Chicharito, and Berbatov can score goals from nothing, while Valencia's in resurgent form on the flanks. United's potential weakness come in the team's spine. Evans and Smalling have been unimpressive as a back-up pairing, the usual midfield of Carrick and Giggs can be out-numbered and overrun, and neither De Gea nor Lindegaard have been able to make the first-choice goalkeeper position their own.

United were surprisingly defensive in the previous meeting, lucky to come away with a draw when Chicharito got free on a set play, scoring with what was United's second (and only threatening) shot on target. It's doubtful that Ferguson will make the same mistakes, which will require Liverpool's midfield – which contained both Gerrard and Adam – to be as good, if not better, than in October's draw. Also, Liverpool need to take their chances blah blah blah you get the picture we've been here before.

Liverpool are missing key players, United are missing key players. It's a one-off cup tie, on Liverpool's ground. It'll be a typical English masterpiece: blood, thunder, sweat, tears, and kicking anything that moves. Anything can happen. Which, I assume, is something we're all afraid of. The other fear relates to that off-field nonsense we're not acknowledging in the hopes it won't rear its ugly head. La la la I can't hear you.

Liverpool 2-2 Manchester City

2012-01-25T17:30:00.001-05:00

Liverpool win 3-2 on aggregate

Goals:
De Jong 31'
Gerrard 40' (pen)
Dzeko 67'
Bellamy 74'

*Shakes head* Football, man. Football.

So much for Liverpool holding what they had. This was no lock-down defensive effort. Liverpool played defense by attacking, and would have settled the tie far sooner if not for Joe Hart's continuing brilliance.

Liverpool played as they played for the first twenty minutes in the previous leg, taking the game to City, and could have been ahead within four minutes. Lescott's failed clearance fell to the feet of Enrique, somehow denied point-blank by Hart. Bellamy was an indescribable handful up front, and forced another excellent save with a strong turn and shot in the 21st. The all-action striker was supported by Downing, Henderson and Kuyt, with Adam and Gerrard deeper, Adam joining the attack more often than the captain.

City had more and more possession, but had been wholly blunted until the 31st, unable to enter the final third and unable to register a shot anywhere near the target. Until de Jong, of all players, found space 25 yards out when Adam stupidly chased Silva and the ball even though both were covered by Gerrard, leaving space for City's holding midfielder to cannon a shot he'll never be able to replicate. One shot on target, one goal.

But Liverpool weren't behind for long. Unlike against Bolton, or in other dreadful disappointments, heads didn't drop. Nine minutes later, Adam partly made amends by starting a move which won the penalty, brilliantly shifting into space past Barry, with his cross deflected out to Agger, the same player who won the penalty in the last meeting. City fans and contrarian "neutrals" will decry the decision, as Agger's shot struck Richards' leg before hitting his arm, but Richards probably shouldn't have had both hands above his head to block a goal-bound effort. Gerrard's penalty was a carbon copy of the last, and Hart had even less of a chance to stop this one.

Back ahead, Liverpool didn't look to change tactics after the interval. And although City made a half-time substitution, bringing on Agüero for the hapless Savic (having strangely played three center-backs in the first half), Liverpool remained the more-attacking side. Hart repeated earlier excellence with wonderful saves to deny Skrtel and Downing within ten minutes of the whistle. But then City struck again. Quickly countering with Glen Johnson caught upfield, Kolarov eluded Gerrard, with his cross met by Dzeko inches from goal as Agger didn't track his run. Two shots on target, two goals. Meanwhile, Liverpool had taken somewhere around 15 at this point.

But what looked to be a hammer blow, yet another nail in a coffin full of them, was only a seven-minute setback. Bellamy, who looked out on his feet, ready to be substituted any minute, restored Liverpool's aggregate lead after lovely interplay with Kuyt and Johnson: Kuyt cut in from the right and found Bellamy in the box, and Bellamy played a wonderful one-two with the advancing Johnson before slotting past his former teammate. It's always nice when a narrative comes to fruition.

Unsurprisingly, Liverpool were under pressure for the final 15 minutes, and City actually registered shots on target which didn't go in. Substitute Adam Johnson shot tamely at Reina following unbelievable recovery speed from Enrique, while the otherwise uninvolved Agüero bicycled straight at the keeper in injury time. Agger also had to be on hand to block Dzeko's scrambled close-range effort in the 87th, right before Dalglish replaced Bellamy with another defender in Martin Kelly.

For once, attack serves as the best form of defense for Liverpool, which is a welcome but rare occurrence this season. Bellamy was indescribably important, a release valve with his pace, a non-stop irascible handful who put City under constant pressure. His reward is facing another former club in the final. Gerrard was Liverpool's other standout, playing as the deepest midfielder. It's no coincidence both Silva and Agüero were almost nonexistent with the captain in that position. And, with Liverpool using a five-man midfield, his partnership with Adam was vastly improved, despite the Scot's role in City's opener. Henderson was also excellent as the most advanced midfielder, while Kuyt had what was easily his best match of this otherwise forgettable season.

I hate to be Captain Buzzkill, but this obviously doesn't excuse poor performance after poor performance against all those sides we expected Liverpool to beat. If anything, it makes those performances more infuriating. Once again, Liverpool hit heights against top-quality opposition, at their best against the best. Tactics, personnel, and individual performances all ranged from mostly faultless to supremely impressive.

And now, with the first trip to the new Wembley on the horizon – Liverpool's first trip to any Wembley for 16 seasons – hopefully this performance will serve as the confidence boost and catalyst we've been waiting months for.

Liverpool v Manchester City 01.25.12

2012-01-24T10:43:00.000-05:00

Liverpool lead 1-0 on aggregate.

2:45pm ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (a) 01.11.12
0-3 City (a) 01.03.12
1-1 (h) 11.27.11
3-0 Liverpool (h) 04.11.11

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 2-1 Chelsea (a); 2-1 Stoke (a); 2-1 Brighton (a); 3-1 Exeter (a)
City: 1-0 Arsenal (a); 5-2 Wolves (a); 2-0 Brum (h)

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-3 Bolton (a); 0-0 Stoke (h); 1-0 City (a)
City: 3-2 Tottenham (h); 1-0 Wigan (a); 0-1 Liverpool (h)

Goalscorers (Carling Cup):
Liverpool: Suarez 3; Maxi 2; Bellamy, Carroll, Gerrard, Kelly, Kuyt 1
City: Dzeko 2; Agüero, Balotelli, Johnson, Hargreaves, Nasri 1

Referee: Phil Dowd

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Gerrard Spearing
Downing Henderson Bellamy
Kuyt

What exactly did Dalglish mean by "If that's the level they [the players] expect this football club to play at, they won't be here long"? More importantly, who exactly was he referring to?

Sure, we all have guesses. Educated guesses, no less. And everyone has their favored scapegoat, almost certainly bought last summer. My guesses are immediately evident from the two usual starters missing in the line-up predicted above. The fact remains that they're still guesses. Nonetheless, there will assuredly be changes from Saturday's line-up. Heads have rolled and are probably still rolling.

Despite being at Anfield, Liverpool will probably protect their lead and look to counter. Dalglish may well deploy the three at the back as against Stoke and in the last stages of the last leg, but keeping faith with the preferred back four seems safer, even after conceding three at Bolton. Inviting City pressure is loosening the thread which holds the sword of Damocles over the club, but a compact, cagey game should suit Liverpool far more than the opposition. At Anfield, Liverpool should be more expansive than at the Etihad two weeks ago, but this will not be a 4-0 romp of Real Madrid; the template will still be based more on this season's wins at Chelsea and City. At the least, that Liverpool are protecting a lead and are facing difficult opposition means we shouldn't see the much-maligned, easily criticized 4-4-2 formation.

If Kuyt does play up top – as often happens in "big games," no matter his current struggles – or even if it's Carroll again, Liverpool have to have to have to get runners from midfield forward when attacking, whether Bellamy, Downing, Maxi, Henderson, Kuyt, or whomever play behind the striker(s). That was the biggest problem in the second half of the last leg, the biggest problem against Stoke, and one of many problems last Saturday.

Central midfield remains the other overriding concern. It's ever so strange to write, but if he's fit, the midfield is Spearing plus two. And Spearing's fitness is crucial. The loss at Bolton dreadfully exposed Gerrard and Adam's limitations as a midfield pairing. Liverpool need a defensive midfielder, even more so than Liverpool need added firepower. Some teams are able to excel without one – most notably the Mancs, who often use a Giggs-Carrick partnership. Liverpool have not been able to do similar at any time this season. Liverpool need a water-carrier, someone to do the dirty work to free up the likes of Gerrard, Adam, and Henderson. Right now, Spearing looks the only player on the roster with that ability.

Having Henderson in the hole, even though he was another of Saturday's disappointments, provides a willing runner who'll also help solidify the spine, and moves him into a position where he's far more comfortable. Shelvey is another possibility who can deliver similar, but that he's only started at Villa in mid-December and against Oldham three weeks ago is a clue that he probably won't start here either.

Balotelli will probably join Kompany on the FA's blacklist, as City have until tomorrow to decide whether to appeal the Italian's four-game suspension for "stamping" on Scott Parker. City should probably count their blessings that Lescott isn't suspended as well for smashing his forearm into Kaboul's face; the already-thin defense would miss Lescott far more than City's attack will miss Balotelli. With both Toures still at the African Cup of Nations, the back-line is likely to be the same as in the last leg: Richards-Savic-Lescott-Clichy. No matter the missing players, predicting City's midfield and attack is a bit harder.

The league leaders have played 13 domestic away fixtures in the league and cups. They've scored at least two goals in seven, winning four of those matches by at least two goals, the margin which would ensure victory tomorrow. However, those seven games with at least two goals were the first seven away fixtures of the season. Starting with November's 1-1 draw at Anfield, City have two wins, two draws, and two losses on the road, scoring no more than once in each. Winning 1-5 at Spurs and 1-6 at United seems like a long time ago, especially after a 0-0 draw at West Brom and a 0-1 injury time loss at Sunderland. Nonetheless, Liverpool are certainly well aware of City's potential for those egregious score lines. You know the murderer's row attack: Agüero, Silva, Nasri, Milner, Dzeko, Johnson, etc. etc. Any one of those players can single-handedly destroy Liverpool's Wembley hopes if given the opportunity. So don't give them the opportunity.

That Liverpool have usually been at their best against the best and that Dalglish will undoubtedly demand a response to the abortion at Bolton should provide fans some needed optimism. If nothing else, a mid-week Anfield night with a cup final at stake should be inspiration enough for whoever lines up on the pitch.

Winter Blues

2012-01-22T13:07:00.002-05:00

"Now is the winter of our discontent."

Yikes.

Liverpool have averaged 1.00 points per game or fewer in eight months over the last four-and-a-half seasons – eight of 46 months during this time frame. Three were in January, including this season, with one in December. Half of Liverpool's horrible months since the 2007-08 season have come during winter, under Benitez, Hodgson, and Dalglish.

Admittedly, January isn't quite over with just yet. If Liverpool win at Wolves on the 31st, it will bump this season's January average all the way up to 1.00 points per game. Which will still be worse than just four other months since the start of 2007-08. A draw would lead to an average of 0.50 points per game; a loss an average of 0.25. If Liverpool don't win in nine days, it'll be the worst month during this span, possibly tied with the end of 2009-10 when Liverpool lost to Chelsea and drew at Hull with nothing to play for. No matter next week's result, this month's average will be really, really not good. The highest the four-and-a-half season January average can climb is 1.33 points per game, still worse than the next-closest month by more than a third of a point.

January cost Liverpool its long-desired league title in 2008-09. It nearly cost Liverpool Champions League qualification in 2007-08 if not for a remarkable run to finish that campaign, not unlike the subsequent season. December plus the first match in January were the final blow to Hodgson's ill-fated rotten regime. And while Liverpool's results clearly improved after Dalglish took the reins, last January would have been Dalglish's worst month of the campaign if not for two tepid losses to close the season once Champions League qualification was finally a lost cause. The best January in recent history came in 2009-10, that abhorrent campaign which saw Benitez get the sack, which should tell you how strange that season truly was.

That Liverpool are historically awful during this month is little consolation for the team's recent troubles. But we've seen this script before, even if this season's script is frustratingly far more goal-shy and frustratingly far more frustrating given heightened expectations.

Selfishly, this is all the evidence Liverpool fans need for a winter break. And from now on, we'll just tell Liverpool players than every month is March.

Month-by-month statistics in the comments section.

Liverpool 1-3 Bolton

2012-01-21T15:03:00.001-05:00

Goals:
M Davies 4'
Reo-Coker 29'
Bellamy 36'
Steinsson 50'

So is this what FSG feared when appointing Dalglish? A manager that should be, hopefully, exempt from criticism, but there has been so much to criticize in tactics, personnel, and transfer dealings lately. Let alone the performances from those on the pitch. Hodgson was absolutely excoriated for games like this. Being the best player and one of the most-successful managers in Liverpool history can't save Dalglish from similar, if deservedly less vehement.

I can't keep making excuses, and probably have to finally admit I've been proven wrong. The jury I've tried to keep hung keeps delivering its verdict louder and louder. Liverpool's summer signing scapegoats still aren't clicking, and still don't look like doing so. More bad games than good means the bad games aren't aberrations. Still just six points behind fourth, but again failing to take advantage of competitors' results means that the Champions League looks less and less likely for yet another season.

It's another terrible performance against a relegation-threatened side, as in losses to Blackpool and West Ham last season and in draws against Blackburn and Wigan (and arguably others) this season. It's the first loss to Bolton in 11 tries, a comprehensive defeat to the side with the worst home record in all four divisions. With this win, Bolton move out of the bottom three for the first time this season.

It was the type of performance that can push even a sycophant like me over the edge. The tone was set when Bolton carved open Liverpool's 4-4-2 within four minutes. The home side got at a disjointed, second-best Liverpool immediately, and Davies easily burst behind Liverpool's midfield from Ngog's flick-on when no one tracked his run, sliding his shot past Reina before Skrtel could recover.

Liverpool had little response for the early concession and continued to look completely insipid. Bolton could have had a second soon after, but Eagles could only cross across the face of goal after beating Enrique all ends up. The only reason Bellamy and Carroll were marginally exempt from criticism was because the other nine Liverpool players couldn't create anything. Unlike in recent setbacks, chances weren't coming at all.

Bolton added an improbable second in the 29th, again carving open Liverpool like that clichéd Thanksgiving turkey. Eagles, Reo-Coker, and Ngog excellently combined on a throw-in, with Liverpool embarrassingly static; Eagles' chip found Reo-Coker charging into the box unmarked, controlling with his chest then firing past Reina.

Finally finding a semblance of attack when two down, Bellamy and Carroll pulled one back in the 36th, as Bellamy charged onto Carroll's header after Adam headed Bogdan's goal kick out of defense, beating Knight for pace before slotting home. An equalizer even looked possible before the interval, as Bogdan saved shots from the goal-scorer and Gerrard.

It didn't take long for Bolton to destroy that optimistic notion after the restart. Again, Liverpool started sloppily and again, Liverpool paid for it, this time on a set play. Wheater, out-jumping Skrtel, headed Petrov's corner up and Steinsson classily volleyed it in. The clearly unconfident side had little heart to try to fight back from a two-goal deficit again, and the final forty minutes were a depressing formality. Kuyt and Downing replaced Maxi and Adam, who were probably Liverpool's worst players today, but neither made the side any more cohesive. Liverpool's subsequent half-chances followed the stereotypical script. Agger cannoned a shot off the crossbar. Carroll hilariously whiffed when open for Maxi's cutback. Bellamy selfishly shot at Bogdan when Liverpool broke in the 78th, a deflection making it easy for the keeper. I can't even think of any consolation chances in the last 10 minutes, with Liverpool solely focused on leaving the Reebok as soon as possible.

Where Liverpool go from here is the crucial question. Somehow, Dalglish has to restore self-belief when absolutely none is evident. Earlier this season, Liverpool played well but couldn't take advantage for any number of unfortunate reasons. Now, Liverpool are struggling in every section of the pitch and are getting exactly what they deserve. It's no coincidence Liverpool are far, far worse without Lucas and Suarez, but no one expected them to suffer this mightily. That Liverpool went 4-4-2 with Gerrard and Adam in midfield and Henderson and Maxi out "wide," no matter previous results, is mostly unexplainable and nearly unforgivable.

Panicked January spending probably isn't the answer. Another new manager almost certainly isn't the answer. But something, lots of things, need to change. And very, very quickly.

Liverpool at Bolton 01.21.12

2012-01-20T12:11:00.001-05:00

12:30pm ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
3-1 Liverpool (h) 08.27.11
2-1 Liverpool (h) 01.01.11
1-0 Liverpool (a) 10.31.10
2-0 Liverpool (h) 01.30.10

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 Stoke (h); 1-0 City (a); 5-1 Oldham (h)
Bolton: 2-0 Macclesfield (h); 0-3 United (a); 2-2 Macclesfield (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 5; Bellamy 4; Adam, Carroll, Gerrard, Maxi, Skrtel 2; Henderson, Johnson 1
Bolton: Klasnic 7; Eagles 3; K Davies, Ngog, Reo-Coker 2; Boyata, M Davies, Muamba, Petrov, Ricketts 1

Referee: Kevin Friend

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Henderson Gerrard
Downing Shelvey Maxi
Carroll

The same questions and concerns continue to be the focus. Where are the goals coming from and who'll comprise Liverpool's stuttering attack?

Chances are that the three at the back system so lauded after Stoke will be shelved. Liverpool's options are partnering Kuyt or Bellamy with Carroll, or reverting to the 4-2-3-1/4-3-3/4-1-4-1 system (whatever you want to call it; five midfielders, one striker) we've seen most often during Suarez's suspension, especially since Spearing's likely to miss out again.

Agger's should be available, while Dalglish didn't mention Maxi when discussing injuries in the pre-match press conference. Spearing remains questionable, Lucas is obviously absent. In theory, Liverpool have to choose three from four to make up central midfield, and two from four to fill the flanks. Gerrard, Henderson, Adam or Shelvey; Downing, Bellamy, Kuyt or Maxi.

Adam remains the primary midfield scapegoat, disappointing over the last month after marked improvement prior to Lucas' injury, while Shelvey seems one of the few dynamic runners who can help shake Liverpool's attacking malaise. Bellamy will be more valuable next week when Liverpool face City on Wednesday and United next Saturday. I'd imagine he'll be kept on the bench in a "break glass if needed" box, with an eye on the upcoming cup ties. Both Kuyt and Downing have also underperformed almost all season, but with both struggling, it's a catch-22 damned whatever you do situation. Somebody's got to play.

In 19th, a point (and nine goals) from safety, this will be Bolton's first league match since selling Gary Cahill. The defender was left out of Wanderers' last league match, a 0-3 loss at United, which gives us an idea of how Coyle will line up until a replacement (likely to be American Tim Ream) is signed. With on-loan Dedrick Boyata out of favor, Bolton's back line was Steinsson-Wheater-Knight-Ricketts, with Reo-Coker and Muamba in midfield, Eagles and Petrov on the flanks, and Mark Davies behind Ngog as a lone striker (a combination which has started the last two league fixtures). Klasnic or Kevin Davies' elbows may replace the former Liverpool striker, while Jaaskelainen should be fit again. Despite the myth's about Owen Coyle's aesthetics, Bolton are still Bolton: burly defenders, combative terrier midfielders, crossing-specialist wingers, and awkward, aerially-effective strikers.

Liverpool have won ten consecutive matches against Bolton, coinciding with the end of Allardyce's tenure. The reverse fixture saw one of Liverpool's most comprehensive performances of the season: first goals for Henderson and Adam, wholly unthreatened until Klasnic's cheap late consolation, and one of just two league matches this season where Liverpool's scored three. Meanwhile, Bolton have conceded three or more in eight of their 21 league fixtures and have kept just two clean sheets.

Maybe this will be the week the dam breaks. If only so we all can stop writing (and hoping) that maybe this will be the week the dam breaks.

Liverpool 0-0 Stoke

2012-01-14T12:36:00.000-05:00

Tried to replicate the formation from the 2-0 win against Stoke last season, starting with three center-backs for the first time this season. Didn't work. Tried sending Carroll on for final thirty minutes. Didn't work. Bellamy couldn't change matters either. Another disappointing, frustrating draw at Anfield. Quelle surprise.

Liverpool were actually "better" – a term used incredibly loosely – in September's 0-1 loss at the Britannia. That match saw Liverpool attempt 24 shots with seven on target, only denied at least a draw by Begovic's brilliance. Today, Liverpool had just one shot on target, nine off, and five blocked – 15 in total, eight of which came from outside the area. The one on target – Henderson's tame left-footed effort from distance – couldn't have threatened Sorensen less.

Most importantly, Liverpool were able to get runners from midfield past Kuyt last season. Scoring from a scrambled set-play immediately after half-time opened Stoke up for the second, scored by a speedy striker on the counter. Yes, you know who. For some reason, Henderson, Adam, Gerrard, and Downing rarely got beyond Kuyt today – a striker in name only who often drops deep and who's in horrific form in front of goal this season – let alone behind Stoke's seven (at a minimum) defenders, even though we know all four are capable of doing so.

What was tactically brilliant a year ago was wholly wrong today. Fine margins and so on. The three center-backs completely nullified Stoke, while Johnson and Enrique got forward at will. Stoke had exactly one threatening chance: Etherington shooting straight at Reina from the top of the box on the break in the 24th. If the point of the formation was to nullify Stoke, then hurrah, it was hugely successful. Unfortunately, most aren't content with simple nullification of a side which hasn't scored at Anfield since the early 90s, and that Liverpool kept all three defenders on for 90 minutes will surely provoke a few questions.

Liverpool just couldn't do anything right in attack, no matter its overwhelming superiority in possession, camped in Stoke's half throughout. Again. Liverpool's midfield was ineffective in supporting said worthless attack. And without Agger's ability on the ball, not in the squad after picking up a knock, having three center-backs was far less effective in building the so-called attack.

As in the reverse fixture and against Sunderland, Norwich, Swansea, Wigan, and Blackburn, Liverpool finally dialed up the pressure in the final 15 minutes, aided by Carroll and Bellamy replacing Downing and Henderson. Kuyt headed Liverpool's best chance wide in the 77th, diving to reach Enrique's deflected cross. The same player hit the side netting at the far post six minutes later, while Skrtel unfortunately headed Bellamy's corner down and over the bar in the 86th. Carroll could have had a couple of penalties when barged over by defenders, Kuyt could have had one, but referees rarely give them, especially Howard Webb and especially against Stoke, whose defending relies on that tactic. But that was the extent of it. That Liverpool created so little, even after "dialing up the pressure" is unforgivable. That Liverpool have now drawn seven of 11 home league matches is even more unforgivable. Everyone's culpable. The front five and two attacking substitutions all disappointed, although the usual scapegoats will probably get the most criticism. I have little defense for any of them.

Yes, yes, Stoke are excellent at being Stoke, especially against Liverpool. The fixture pile-up over the last month clearly didn't help either, forcing Liverpool's hands tactically, ensuring Bellamy (and probably Carroll) weren't fit enough to start and with Gerrard far more muted than against either Oldham or City. But this wasn't good enough, and hasn't been good enough for quite awhile. I'm excited to look up the last time Liverpool's home form was so terrible over the first half of a season.

We've been saying the same since August 14. Liverpool need to find a way score more goals, especially at Anfield and especially against sides Liverpool expect to beat. Playing Kuyt up top and three center-backs did not achieve that breakthrough. Bolton away in a week's time before the next chance to rectify that deficiency comes against City for a trip to Wembley.

Liverpool v Stoke 01.14.12

2012-01-13T12:42:00.001-05:00

10am ET, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a; Carling Cup) 10.26.11
0-1 Stoke (a) 09.10.11
2-0 Liverpool (h) 02.02.11
0-2 Stoke (a) 11.13.10

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 City (a); 5-1 Oldham (h); 0-3 City (a)
Stoke: 3-1 Gillingham (a); 2-1 Blackburn (a); 2-2 Wigan (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 5; Bellamy 4; Adam, Carroll, Gerrard, Maxi, Skrtel 2; Henderson, Johnson 1
Stoke: Crouch 6; Walters 5; Delap, Ethrington 2; Huth, Jerome, Jones, Shawcross, Shotton, Whelan 1

Referee: Howard Webb

Strangely enough, this will be the first time Liverpool have had Webb this season. On the one-year anniversary of Babel-Webb Twittergate, no less.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Henderson Adam
Downing Shelvey Maxi
Carroll

Once again, midfield is Liverpool's biggest concern. With Spearing likely to miss out thanks to a hamstring injury, will Liverpool also risk Gerrard so soon after playing 90 minutes twice in the last week?

Of course, both Henderson and Adam are probably fatigued after City as well, which makes Shelvey's participation even more likely. Dalglish has dropped few hints, as is Dalglish's wont, so it's a guessing game as to who's in the best condition to play on Saturday.

Maybe, just maybe, we'll see three center-backs, as in the late stages of Wednesday's match and in this fixture last season. Agger played at left back in October's Carling Cup meeting to give Liverpool more height when defending Stoke's set plays; three at the back – whether it's Kelly-Skrtel-Agger or Skrtel-Carragher-Agger – would achieve the same purpose in addition to supplementing Liverpool's defense with both Spearing and Lucas injured. Aurelio, who I believe is still fit but that could change in the next minute, played midfield against this lot last season, but that seems the remotest of remote possibilities given Fabio's infrequent participation this season.

Playing three at the back could also ease Liverpool's worries on the flanks, with Johnson and Enrique more advanced. Bellamy evokes the same concerns as Gerrard after featuring against Oldham and City. At the same time, both Kuyt and Downing have struggled recently. If not three at the back, it seems as if the flanks will be Maxi and one other, even if Maxi rarely starts without Suarez. And if Bellamy's fit, he seemingly has to be preferred. Incidentally, Suarez has scored Liverpool's last three goals against Stoke: both in the Carling Cup and the second at Anfield 11 months ago. Step forward, Andy Carroll. Please.

Stoke could be missing three defenders, as Woodgate, Wilson, and Shotton are carrying knocks. But Stoke's attack will be all too familiar. Walters scored Stoke's penalty winner in the reverse fixture in September and Peter Crouch knows Anfield (and Liverpool's defenders) exceptionally well. Agger and Carragher did well against the Gangly Handful at the Britannia, but Stoke will be even more reliant on Crouch's hold-up ability with Liverpool likely to see even more of the ball. And then there are the usual Pennant and Etherington crosses and Delap long throws. Perpetually fun times.

Liverpool's Anfield record against sides content to defend remains abhorrent; the 3-1 win at Newcastle after Gerrard came on did little to reassure other than in reasserting Gerrard's talismanic qualities. If the captain's rested, protected, Liverpool will be under pressure to carve through an undoubtedly determined Stoke with the knowledge of past failures looming large in the minds.

What's The Formation, Kenneth? (Again)

2012-01-12T08:44:00.000-05:00

I've seen some hand-wringing and questions as to how Liverpool were lined up yesterday, especially in the second half.

I tried to explain the set-up and the reasons for it in yesterday's match review, but pictures always make things easier. Not a 1000 words easier, but easier nonetheless.

Liverpool's first substitution obviously wasn't planned, and Spearing's exit restrained the away side more than they would have liked in the first 45 minutes when on top. But there was a clear strategy with the next two substitutions. The second half followed a simple narrative. Mancini made a change, Dalglish would respond. Mancini made another change, Dalglish parried a different way.

Adam Johnson was key to both sides' tactics, City's most dangerous play-maker with Silva absent, even after Nasri came on. Glen Johnson began on the left in response, an inverted full-back used to mute an inverted winger, evoking fond memories of Arbeloa on Messi four years earlier. When the Manchester City winger stopped playing down that flank early in the second half, shifting into the hole with Milner on the right and Nasri on the left, Enrique came on. Glen Johnson went central, as a left-sided center-back, partly to still keep an eye on Adam Johnson and partly to continue doubling up on Micah Richards' dangerous overlaps. When Dzeko and Kolarov entered, Johnson went to right back, tasking with keeping Nasri and Kolarov from getting crosses in for the target-man, while Carragher came on as defensive midfielder. Or, to go all in on the nomenclature game, as a libero: Carra Baresi, just as he's always fancied himself. Really, he came on to add another body in defense, because Liverpool certainly weren't looking to add anything to attack. Just to seal any possible cracks in the armor.

The most debate will probably be about the "second sub" formation: was Johnson a third center-back or a defensive midfielder? This sort of detail borders on semantics, splitting the finest of hairs, but I'll argue he was a center-back. Johnson stepped forward the few times Liverpool were in possession, but as soon as City entered the final third, Johnson was on the same line as Skrtel and Agger, defending like a center-back, making tackles in the penalty area, most notably on Agüero in the 68th. If Liverpool had more possession and Johnson was able to spend more time stepping forward, there's more an argument for calling him a midfielder. But Liverpool were almost always on the back foot. Yes, partly by design. And partly because Manchester City is still Manchester City.

Was it risky? Sure. Any time you invite pressure, you invite risks. Liverpool's defensive 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge last season was risky too, but Liverpool's five-man defense held on for the win after getting the goal. Any time you play a team as strong as Manchester City, especially on their ground, you have to take risks, no matter the key players they (and Liverpool) had absent.

Was it overly defensive? Nope. Because Liverpool won. There was no guarantee of a second Liverpool goal had the away side kept up the pressure seen the first 15 minutes. But there certainly would have been a greater danger of conceding an equalizer. City's two goals against United on Sunday, despite being down to ten, clearly loomed large in Dalglish and Clarke's minds, a reminder of what the league leaders are capable of when you give them space to operate, even at a man disadvantage. Preventing that from happening, keeping Liverpool's narrow edge for the second leg, was the only goal. And understandably so.

Liverpool 1-0 Manchester City

2012-01-11T17:40:00.004-05:00

Goals:
Gerrard 13' (pen)

The same template we saw when Liverpool traveled to Stamford Bridge, and more than a hint of Benitez-era Champions League matches. Get the goal, kill the game. So, will one goal be enough in two weeks time?

If not for Joe Hart, Liverpool would have taken the lead even earlier. Between the 5th and 11th minutes, Hart replicated the heroics we saw in this season's Anfield meeting, first saving Carroll's right-footed effort after the striker excellent turned and beat Savic, then saving Gerrard's shot from the top of the box, and then saving Downing's deflected blast from the subsequent corner.

But there was no saving Gerrard's penalty. Savic felled Agger on the corner following Downing's deflected shot, a high boot with Agger trying to control and run through the defense. Unsurprisingly, Liverpool's return from the penalty spot has been vastly improved with Gerrard's return, and the captain hammered in his second in as many games; Hart went the right way but Gerrard's shot was too hard and too perfectly-placed low into the corner.

A goal to the good, Liverpool looked far happier to soak up City pressure, and Spearing's 23rd-minute injury exacerbated the defensive, vertical tendencies. Adam's entrance forced Gerrard to sit deeper for added protection, in a more orthodox 4-2-3-1 than what Liverpool started with, but Liverpool were already shifting from all-out attack to all-out defense. From five good chances in the first 15 minutes to just one afterwards – Carroll heading Kelly's deep cross just wide of the far post in the 35th. But City didn't test Reina until the 43rd, parrying Nasri's shot from distance; the Frenchman had replaced the ineffective and volatile Balotelli just four minutes earlier, the first instance of the tactical tete-a-tete which dominated the second half. In the 45th, Richards beat Johnson for the first time, but Milner skied the cut-back from the spot.

There's no way around describing Liverpool's second half performance as parking the bus. There was no semblance of attack from the away side, and Carroll was wholly completely utterly isolated. But, unlike during the last regime, it was bus parking with a purpose which earned a result.

One manager made a change, then the other responded. Adam Johnson stopped playing on the right, so Glen Johnson stopped playing on Liverpool's left. Enrique replaced Downing on the hour as Liverpool shifted to something like a 5-4-1, with Glen Johnson as a roaming left-sided center-back, doubling up on Richards' overlaps and keeping an eye on Adam Johnson floating between the lines. Mancini then replaced Johnson with Dzeko followed by Kolarov for De Jong, adding width and an out-and-out target man. Liverpool's riposte was a more defensive, more natural five at the back, with Johnson moving back to his normal right back berth, followed by Carragher replacing Bellamy, playing as a holding midfielder and dispelling any misplaced notion that Liverpool might go in search of a second.

However you slice, dice, excuse, and explain the tactical minutiae, Liverpool parked the bus. Carroll was often the only Liverpool player in Manchester City's half, and he spent nearly all of the final minutes defending. Reina had multiple saves to make, but City were mostly limited to set plays and shots from distances due to Liverpool's nonstop work. It wasn't pretty, but it was effective. We'll sacrifice aesthetics for results every now and then. Especially without Suarez, without Lucas, with an early Spearing injury, against the league leaders, on a ground where Liverpool lost heavily just eight days earlier.

Liverpool dominated possession in last week's league meeting but went down three-nil thanks to mistakes being punished, poor set play defense, and being carved open on the break when pushing for an unlikely comeback. Today, City had 56% possession while Liverpool had zero second half shots, but Liverpool leave winners. Incidentally, Liverpool also made far fewer mistakes – just one, Kelly's sloppy back pass, but Reina was there to prevent Agüero taking advantage.

Pick a defender and he'll have a case for man of the match; my choices are Reina for his saves and Johnson for his versatility. Henderson and Gerrard did well in midfield, although Spearing was the pick of the bunch prior to his injury. City also dearly missed both Yaya Toure and David Silva. Barry and De Jong were functional but added little in attack, while Milner mostly played wide. Nasri couldn't create with no space as Silva's done time and time again. Carroll's role was totally thankless, but he pressed until his legs fell off and was crucial in defending set plays, especially late on. There'd be no complaints about his performance had he taken one of his two first-half chances, but such is the striker's life.

Today's away goal is meaningless as we know it from Europe; away goals only count in this competition after second-leg extra-time, and if there's extra time, City will have at least one away goal of their own. Liverpool will have to be more than just diligent and defensive at Anfield in two weeks time. Nonetheless, this result gives Liverpool the perfect foundation to do so in front of a baying and expectant Kop, with the first trip to Wembley for 16 years at stake.

Liverpool at Manchester City 01.11.12

2012-01-10T14:52:00.004-05:00

2:45pm ET, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus

Last four head-to-head:
0-3 City (a) 01.03.12
1-1 (h) 11.27.11
3-0 Liverpool (h) 04.11.11
0-3 City (a) 08.23.10

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 2-0 Chelsea (a); 2-1 Stoke (a); 2-1 Brighton (a); 3-1 Exeter (a)
City: 1-0 Arsenal (a); 5-2 Wolves (a); 2-0 Brum (h)

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 5-1 Oldham (h); 0-3 City (a); 3-1 Newcastle (h)
City: 2-3 United (h); 3-0 Liverpool (h); 0-1 Sunderland (a)

Goalscorers (Carling Cup):
Liverpool: Suarez 3; Maxi 2; Bellamy, Carroll, Kelly, Kuyt 1
City: Dzeko 2; Agüero, Balotelli, Johnson, Hargreaves, Nasri 1

Referee: Lee Mason

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Spearing Adam
Bellamy Gerrard Downing
Carroll

Yes, it's the Carling Cup. It's also the semi-finals. Liverpool will almost assuredly play the strongest lineup possible. This 'Mickey Mouse' cup will take precedence over Saturday's home match against Stoke, and then there's a week until the next fixture. Liverpool haven't a had a week between matches since mid-December.

Most of the starting spots seem guaranteed. Reina plays every match ever. Liverpool's best back four should return after being rested on Friday. To the delight of all, Adam is also likely to return after missing the FA Cup match. Gerrard will start if at all possible. Carroll seemingly has to play up top.

Which leaves two or three questions. Who'll be the third in midfield: Spearing, Shelvey, or Henderson? Will Bellamy's knees allow him to start consecutive matches? And will we see Downing after this weekend's alleged events?

If both Gerrard and Adam play, Spearing seems the most natural third; an out-and-out defensive midfielder in contrast to Shelvey usually attacking between the lines or Henderson's roaming hustle and bustle. However, Gerrard has played deeper than we're used to more often than not, and could well be a replacement for Liverpool's polarizing Scot, joined by Spearing and Shelvey or Henderson.

As for Bellamy or Maxi, Bellamy rightfully won the club's player of the month award this week and was clear man of the match last time out. Maxi's almost always at his best when Suarez plays, with the two combining almost involuntarily, and starts far less frequently when Carroll starts. Downing's alleged shenanigans may force Liverpool's hand, playing both Bellamy and Maxi or one with Kuyt on the right, but my first guess is Liverpool's two best crossers – Bellamy and Downing – feeding Carroll. If Bellamy's knees allow it.

No matter injuries, suspensions, or the African Cup of Nations. No matter three losses from the last four, including a third-round exit at the hands of their noisier, nosier neighbors. Manchester City will still be Manchester City, the team which beat Liverpool 0-3 on this ground a week ago.

Kompany's suspension, with his red card against United upheld today, should make Liverpool's life easier, especially with Kolo Toure also absent. Savic is inexperienced and Lescott is accident-prone, but both are still very good defenders. They're just not Vincent Kompany. Or Kolo Toure, for that matter. A back four of Richards-Savic-Lescott-Clichy (or, less likely, Zabaleta-Richards-Lescott-Clichy) is still better than the first-choice defense for the majority of the Premiership.

Gareth Barry will return from a one-match ban, but in addition to the missing Toures, Balotelli, Dzeko, and Silva are injury doubts; the first two missed City's FA Cup tie against United. It's hilarious to see Mancini cry about squad depth after spending approximately £60 trillion over the last couple of seasons, but City had to include youngsters Abdul Razak and Denis Suarez to fill out the bench against United.

Despite missing key players and despite being unfairly down to ten after 12 minutes, City were excellent against United, fighting throughout and unlucky not to overhaul a three-goal deficit with United reeling for the entire second half. Ideally, those exertions – just three days prior to this match – will have depleted City's already-depleted reserve, but the adage about a wounded animal being the most dangerous feels applicable.

That the first leg is away – with the climax at Anfield in two weeks – and comes so soon after City faced United, will benefit Liverpool. Nonetheless, Liverpool are still underdogs, with City odds-on favorites to lift the Cup next month. Which is probably exactly how Liverpool prefers it.

Liverpool 5-1 Oldham

2012-01-06T17:59:00.002-05:00

Goals:
Simpson 28'
Bellamy 30'
Gerrard 45' (pen)
Shelvey 68'
Carroll 89'
Downing 90+4'

It should be illegal to complain when Liverpool score five, including firsts for Shelvey and Downing and a cameo from Carroll off the bench, no matter the opposition or merits of overall performance.

But after 44:59, Liverpool did not look capable of scoring five, let alone winning anywhere near comprehensively, having conceded first after starting the match as the worse side. Whether due to multiple changes to Tuesday's XI, fatigue, or the different shape, Liverpool couldn't get or keep possession, with a deep back-line and far too many misplaced passes when going forward.

Oldham should have taken the lead long before Simpson's wonder strike in the 28th. 137-year-old Shefki Kuqi out-muscled Coates before gliding past Carragher only to blast into the side-netting in the 10th; Adeyimi headed a corner just over four minutes later, far too similar to the second goal conceded at City; and Taylor shot wide in 24th after cutting in and around Aurelio. Simpson's back-to-goal turn and bazooka in the 28th was a formality, no matter its singular brilliance.

But, as the correct cliché goes, goals change games. Two minutes later, Liverpool were level, albeit fortunately. Bellamy released Shelvey on the right; firing after cutting in, the midfielder's shot deflected off Bellamy's chest, wrong-footing Cisek. Liverpool were ascendant for the final 15 minutes of the half, and Maxi, Shelvey, and Bellamy had chances to snatch the lead. Maxi and Shelvey's opportunities three minutes after the equalizer were the best, with the Argentinean's free shot from the spot saved and Shelvey comically slipping just as the rebound presented itself. But Liverpool's second came just before the interval, a quick counter-attack leading to Maxi barged over by Adeyimi when attempting to reach Gerrard's cross. With the captain stepping to the spot, Liverpool broke this season's penalty voodoo, his strike unstoppably hammered in off upper corner of the frame.

A one-goal lead is never safe, and Oldham had off-target chances through goal-scorer Simpson and substitute Parker, but Liverpool were far better in the second half, mainly due to a formation change during the break. Rather than the initial 4-4-2, Bellamy dropped off to the right, with Kuyt up front alone and Shelvey roaming between the lines. The Welshman was a constant danger, presenting cross after cross to Maxi and Kuyt, all spurned. Then, the sadly expected opposition keeper heroics in front of the Kop, as Cisek somehow kept out Kelly's header on a 58th-minute corner.

But in the 68th, someone was finally on hand to convert a Bellamy set-up. In fact, two were. Kuyt released Bellamy down the right, and both Gerrard and Shelvey ran onto his cut-back cross, Shelvey reaching the ball first and slotting past Cisek.

Two goals to the good, Liverpool were on cruise control, and Flanagan and Downing replaced Aurelio and Bellamy with 15-20 minutes left. Carroll's entrance in the 87th appeared to give the birthday boy little time, but ended up opening the floodgates. The striker scored with his second touch, a left-footed rocket from the top of the box reminiscent of his first goal for the club. He should have gotten a second in the 94th when Downing put a cross on a dinner plate only for Carroll to head over. But in karmic retribution, Downing got his first Liverpool goal seconds later, a sweetly volleyed rebound after Cisek saved Flanagan's effort.

Hopefully, this is what Liverpool needed. A bit of adversity, then a goal deluge, including strikes from key players who have notably gone without. What could have been another 2-2 against Northampton turned into another 5-2 against Havant & Waterlooville. Bellamy was absolutely brilliant, even when Liverpool weren't at its best in the first half, then was crucial to Liverpool's better play in the second half. Gerrard surprisingly played 90 minutes, capable of both the rampaging and the sublime, as per usual. Shelvey did more than enough to earn more appearances, impressive in a free role as against Villa.

Yes, passing was wayward and casual at times, Kuyt and Maxi both struggled to finish chances, and Liverpool's second-string defense looked exceptionally rickety, especially in the first half. Having Carragher and Aurelio on either side clearly didn't help Coates, and the back four played notably deeper than in the 11 consecutive matches with Johnson-Skrtel-Agger-Enrique.

But Liverpool scored five, and Liverpool are on to the fourth round. No complaining, and no Homers, allowed. Carling Cup semifinal at City on Wednesday.

Liverpool v Oldham 01.06.12

2012-01-05T11:32:00.003-05:00

3pm ET, not live on TV in the US ~~anywhere in the world. The whole world, apparently. So there probably won't be streams and there probably won't be an OYB match review either. Yes, this sucks. I'm sorry.~~ Looks like there will be streams after all. Complaining on the internet works again. Check the usual locales.

Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (a) 01.15.94
2-1 Liverpool (h) 10.16.93
2-3 Oldham (a) 05.05.93
1-0 Liverpool (h) 04.10.93

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-3 City (a); 3-1 Newcastle (a); 0-0 Wigan (a)
Oldham: 1-1 Chesterfield (a); 3-2 Notts County (h); 0-1 Hartlepool (h)

Goalscorers (all competitions):
Liverpool: Suarez 8; Bellamy 5; Maxi 4; Carroll 3; Adam, Gerrard, Skrtel 2; Henderson, Johnson, Kelly, Kuyt 1
Oldham: Kuqi 13; Reid 5; Simpson, Wesolowski 4; Adeyemi, Smith 3; Furman, Morais, Scapuzzi, Taylor 2; Clarke, Diamond, Lee, Mellor 1

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Don't think he's ever done a Liverpool match. Only began infrequently refereeing Premier League games in 2010-11 (twice last season, six times this season).

Guess at a line-up:
Doni
Kelly Carragher Coates Aurelio
Spearing Henderson
Kuyt Shelvey Maxi
Carroll

Dalglish deployed surprisingly strong line-ups in the early rounds of the Carling Cup, but those rounds came away from Anfield, when games weren't being played every three or four days, and when Liverpool weren't dealing with injuries and suspensions to key players.

The back four will undoubtedly change for the first time since facing Chelsea in the Carling Cup, with Kelly, Carragher, and Coates almost assured of starting spots. Left-back continues to be an issue; it's one of those rare periods where Fabio Aurelio's actually fit, so he'll probably start, but Liverpool could also use Kelly and Flanagan at the full-back spots, as often happened in the run-in last season.

One of Gerrard, Adam, and Henderson should join Shelvey and Spearing in midfield, unless Liverpool play two up top. Which seems a less likely possibility. Dalglish will want at least one experienced midfielder in there, no matter the opposition (and yes, Henderson counts as an experienced midfielder, at least for this discussion). Gerrard still might not be fit enough to start, and Liverpool have a far-more-important Carling Cup semifinal on Wednesday. Adam's been dire for the last three matches. So I'm guessing Henderson. Hesitantly. As with all the other guesses here.

Predictions for the flanks are just as speculative. Maxi seemingly has to start, left out of the last two. Kuyt, surprisingly poor this season, needs game time, while an ineffective Downing could probably use a break. There could be a reserve-team curveball, with the likes of Sterling or Suso making a debut, but Dalglish will probably stick with the fatigued devil he knows. Kuyt could also start up top, either on his own or with Carroll, but I think yet another match for the misfiring giant is most likely. Bellamy will probably start on the bench with an eye on Wednesday because of his rickety, one-game-a-week knees.

Oldham are currently 14th in League One. After losing three of the first five matches of the season, the Latics have hovered around mid-table for the last few months, bouncing between 12th and 16th since September. They've won just one league match since mid-November, beating Notts County on New Year's Eve, but also successfully held league leaders Charlton on Charlton's ground four matches ago. Since that home win against Chesterfield on November 19, Oldham have won one, drawn three and lost two against League One opponents.

In the "Players You May Have Heard Of" Department, Shefki Kuqi, who's been playing since World War I, is Oldham's top scorer by some distance and will start up front. Ex-Liverpool reserve keeper Dean Bouzanis is the back-up for the Latics, and will probably be planted on the bench. Ex-Chelsea academy player Felipe Morais, who's spent the majority of his career in Scotland, will feature on the wings. Two Italian youngsters on loan from City, including Mancini's kid, probably won't play. That's all I got. I won't embarrass us both by pretending to know more.

Liverpool have history with disappointing performances in domestic cups, notably against Reading, Barnsley, and Burnley in recent years. Not to mention last season's nadir against Northampton, which has far too many frightening parallels with this match: at Anfield, with a second-string lineup expected, against almost-unknown (at least incredibly unfamiliar) lower-league opposition, not televised, and with players' focus understandably most likely elsewhere. The main difference is that Dalglish is in charge of this side. As the last year's proven, that's a fairly large difference.

Liverpool Crossing 2011-12

2012-01-04T11:04:00.000-05:00

So, how's that crossing toward Carroll thing going?

Through the first 17 league games, Liverpool averaged just under 19 crosses per match. In the three since, Liverpool are averaging exactly 35 crosses per match, with 43 against Blackburn, 26 against Newcastle, and 36 against City. Aside from an aberration at Blackburn, when Liverpool completed 16 crosses, the side hasn't delivered more than eight successful crosses in a single match. And all those crosses have led to just two league goals this season.

The change in tactics isn't totally down to Andy Carroll's inclusion. Prior to Blackburn, Liverpool's crossing habits barely differed whether the big striker played or not. Carroll featured in slightly less than half of Liverpool's first 17 games – 750 minutes, starting in eight. Liverpool attempted 165 crosses with Carroll on the pitch in those 17 games, completing 34, a success rate of 20.6% and an average of 4.54 minutes per cross. Liverpool played 780 minutes without Carroll during that span, attempting 154 crosses and completing 29 – 18.8% successful and an average of 5.06 minutes per cross. A negligible difference, at best.

However, with Carroll completing 90 minutes in each of the last three matches, twice without Luis Suarez, Liverpool have attempted 105 crosses, completing 26 – 24.7% successful and an average of 2.57 minutes per cross. A slightly better success rate, but with almost twice as many crosses attempted. The tactic led to exactly one goal – the equalizer against Blackburn, when Maxi (!) headed in Skrtel's (!!!) volleyed cross after a broken-down corner.

That was one of just two Liverpool goals from crosses, according to Guardian's chalkboards.The other was Suarez's header against QPR, assisted by Adam, after a corner was initially cleared. Corners (Bolton, Villa) and free kicks (Sunderland) do not count. Why Enrique's chipped cutback to Carroll against Everton isn't included is beyond my comprehension, but that'd make it three instead of two. Which is hardly better considering Liverpool have attempted 424 crosses this season.

With Suarez out for the next seven matches, Liverpool will invariably continue blasting crosses toward target-men, primarily Carroll. The mocked and maligned striker's finishing has to has to has to improve, but Downing, Kuyt, Johnson, Enrique, Adam, Henderson, etc, etc also need to provide better balls. Gerrard's cameo against Newcastle at least gives some encouragement that Liverpool's delivery can and will improve.

Hopefully, practice makes perfect. Liverpool don't have much margin for error anymore.

Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City

2012-01-03T18:00:00.001-05:00

Goals:
Agüero 10'
Yaya Toure 33'
Milner 75' (pen)

Mistakes punished by cruel, efficient competency combined with continued Liverpool impotence in front of goal. An added bonus of a referee error, a game-ending penalty given for Yaya Toure's dive, mere moments after fleeting good fortune when Barry saw red for two soft yellows. It's just the second time Liverpool conceded two or more goals in 20 league matches, away to two of the three best sides in the league, but today still felt all too familiar.

In a parallel universe, Downing scored in the 8th minute for his fifth of the season, while Kompany wasn't able to block to Kuyt's 43rd-minute point-blank poke. Liverpool were in first in this parallel universe league going into this fixture, having drawn just once at Anfield. Needless to say, Liverpool haven't made many defense mistakes in this parallel universe league. Science needs to discover parallel universes.

But in this universe, when Downing was one-on-one with Hart, released down the left by a wonderful Henderson through-ball, he looked eerily like Henderson did in a similar position against Stoke. Hart did well to block with his back foot, but the unfortunate winger uncertainly tried to place it around a charging keeper.

Two minutes later, Agüero thumped City ahead after mistakes from Kuyt and Reina. The former over-intricately dawdled in possession deep in Liverpool's half, letting Milner steal in and release City's top scorer. The latter, admittedly unsighted, somehow saw Agüero's dipping shot squirm under his diving frame.

Following some initial uncertainty, with Agüero shooting too close to Reina and Dzeko's blast deflecting off Johnson just wide of the post, Liverpool's best spell came prior to City's crucial second. Able to keep possession on City's ground, but with all the goal-threat of a legless XI, Liverpool's best chances came on Adam and Henderson shots from distances and a couple of "close but not quite" Downing crosses toward Carroll.

Then, history repeated on two City corners, as Liverpool failed to learn from the goal conceded in November's meeting. First, Reina redeemed his earlier error by parrying Kompany's bullet header with a brilliant reaction save. He couldn't reach the second as Yaya Toure was in front of Glen Johnson the entire time, hammering in at the near post. As implied in the earlier paean to parallel universes, Liverpool nearly pulled one back before half-time, but Kompany reacted excellently to deny Kuyt after Carroll's knockdown of Enrique's cross.

Liverpool couldn't even replicate that marginal goal-threat in the second half, with City content to stifle thanks to the two-goal advantage. Gerrard and Bellamy replacing the ineffective (to put it nicely) Adam and Kuyt couldn't change the dynamic, and any hope of scoring two in fifteen minutes against ten men was immediately erased after Toure burst past Skrtel and Agger and fell under the slightest of (if any) contract from the Slovakian, counter-attacking after Liverpool wasted the free kick which earned Barry's dismissal.

Liverpool had multiple half-chances for a consolation in the final few minutes, almost all through the three substitutes (Maxi also came on, for Spearing after City's third), but the best was another counter-attack from City, Adam Johnson cannoning a shot off the woodwork in the 80th having already spun away to celebrate.

Back-to-back three-goal losses at Eastlands will invite far too many unwelcome, unwarranted, and idiotic Hodgson-Dalglish comparisons. At least it'll make it easier to weed out half-wits. It's impossible to argue Liverpool merited a draw, but the game could and probably would have been different had a confident attacker taken the first chance of the match. There's still no comparison to last season's horrors; Liverpool's weren't terrible today, and had the majority of possession throughout, both when level and behind. Liverpool just remain really bad in front of goal.

Spearing was a competent and diligent holding midfielder and Henderson was probably Liverpool's best player. Neither Skrtel nor Agger deserve to be part of a defense that let in three, and that it was Skrtel who conceded that penalty is especially callous. But the aforementioned Adam and Kuyt were passengers, Reina had a frighteningly-increasingly-familiar howler, Downing didn't do enough when back on the left, and both Johnson and Enrique disappointed going forward. Carroll was as blunt as ever, without a bare minimum of unlucky close-calls as against Blackburn, Newcastle, and when City came to Anfield. Some credit has to go to to the hosts; Kompany was especially impressive, pocketing Carroll as severely as Skrtel pocketed Dzeko, redemption for being out-muscled when they met at Anfield last season. City counter-attacked at pace and took their chances, no matter how harsh any goal might seem. Liverpool did not.

You may have noticed I haven't mentioned Suarez until now, under the assumption you're aware that Liverpool aren't appealing his ban. Yes, he may have helped. Liverpool's attack assuredly needed help. That he isn't available and won't be until early February, returning against either Spurs or United contingent on progression in the FA Cup, makes the discussion meaningless. I want to believe Liverpool can turn the corner without additions, Suarez or no Suarez, given how these players have played in the past, whether that past is with Liverpool or another. But Kuyt, Carroll, and Downing – while not the only culprits – continue to make that look a belief based on faith rather than fact.

Oldham on Friday before a return trip to the City of Manchester Stadium in the Carling Cup semis.

Liverpool at Manchester City 01.03.12

2012-01-02T16:56:00.001-05:00

3pm ET, live in the US on espn2.

Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 10.27.11
3-0 Liverpool (h) 04.11.10
0-3 City (a) 08.23.09
0-0 (a) 02.21.10

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-1 Newcastle (a); 0-0 Wigan (a); 2-0 Villa (a)
City: 0-1 Sunderland (a); 0-0 West Brom (a); 3-0 Stoke (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 5; Bellamy 4; Adam, Carroll, Gerrard, Maxi, Skrtel 2; Henderson, Johnson 1
City: Agüero 13; Dzeko 10; Balotelli 8; Johnson, Silva 5; Kompany, Milner, Nasri, Y Toure 2; Barry, Kolarov, Richards, Savic 1

Referee: Mike Jones

Yes, again. Had him as recently as Boxing Day. As well as 0-4 Spurs, beach ball, etc.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Spearing
Downing Gerrard Henderson Maxi
Suarez

After two substitute appearances, Gerrard should be fit enough to start. How he'll feature in a Liverpool side that's taken shape in his absence has been one of the most-frequently asked questions this season.

I expect Liverpool will stick with the malleable 4-1-4-1/4-5-1 used against the league leaders at the end of November. When coming on against Newcastle, Gerrard's entrance for Adam saw Liverpool switch to that formation, pushing forward with Henderson as Spearing sat in front of the back four. That I'm guessing Adam is the odd man out is partly based on the fact Gerrard replaced him in the last two matches and partly based on hope. I've been one of his biggest defenders, but the Scot has not played well in the last two matches. Spearing's holding and Henderson's hustle and bustle seem more important, even if Adam hasn't missed a league match yet.

Suarez is back from suspension, and will be for 14 days until a) his appeal is turned down b) Liverpool decline to appeal or c) his eight-match ban is overturned. Until then, I'll hope these three tweets will suffice for comment on the FA's written evidence. And I expect Suarez will play every game (except maybe Oldham) until a, b, or c happen.

Bellamy was outstanding against Newcastle, but odds are that he'll be kept in reserve after Friday's exertions. That it's been four days – in comparison to City's two days off – means participation against another old club is slightly more likely, but odds are that Maxi comes in instead – like Bellamy, one of Liverpool's few consistent scorers and performers. It's especially unfair as Craig missed last month's tie against City as well, but those are the cons of signing a 32-year-old with dodgy knees. Regardless, he's been more than worth the gamble.

Away against difficult opposition, Kuyt could well start on the right, having earned his "big game player" label. Downing's been better on that flank recently, but Kuyt's work-ethic and precedent might win out, even though he's been far below his standards this season. Finally, once again, Liverpool's back four should remain the same for the 11th-straight game until fitness requires otherwise, no matter the heavy schedule or two unfortunate own goals conceded in the last two matches. The combination has been that good.

City scored 53 goals in its first 17 league games, an average of more than three per match. Liverpool were the only opposition to hold them to just one until December 18. They've been kept scoreless in the last two, held by Hodgson at West Brom before going down to an injury time goal at Sunderland. I'm not sure whether to be terrified of City's response when back on home soil or if these last two results are gravity bringing an arriviste back to earth.

City played 4-2-3-1 when these sides met at Anfield, with Nasri, Silva, and Milner behind Agüero and Barry-Toure holding. That's seemingly been Mancini's preferred formation, but the 4-4-2 used against Arsenal and Chelsea is also a possibility. Agüero, Silva, Milner, and Balotelli were left out on Sunday; Balotelli had an ankle problem but the others were with an eye clearly on tomorrow's match. Other than Balotelli, City have no injury concerns.

After tomorrow, Liverpool will have traveled to Arsenal, Spurs, Stoke, Everton, Chelsea, and City – six of the seven hardest away fixtures, missing just United to complete the set. Despite multiple setbacks, most notably a massive inability to score leading to multiple frustrating draws, Liverpool are just three points off fourth as both Arsenal and Chelsea also contrive to toss away points.

The second half of the season starts with the league leaders, no longer runaways after two holiday setbacks. Aside from one bad day at Tottenham, Liverpool's best football in the first half of the campaign came when facing the toughest opposition.

Liverpool 3-1 Newcastle

2011-12-30T17:38:00.000-05:00

Goals:
Agger (og) 25'
Bellamy 29' 67'
Gerrard 78'

Another tepid, frustrating, harsh 1-1 at Anfield. Until Gerrard came on at the hour mark.

As usual, Liverpool were the better side from the start, but neither keeper had a save to make in the first half. More often than not, Liverpool's possession ended at the edge of the final third, mainly with shots from distance charged down by Newcastle defenders or crosses just too high/far for Carroll. And as in Liverpool's last home frustration, the undeserving away side took the lead thanks to a more-than-fortuitous own goal. This time, too many Liverpool players shut off after Johnson's cross ricocheted off Vuckic's jaw as the young striker waved to the sidelines for treatment. Ryan Taylor didn't, crossing for Cabaye, whose flicked header veered past Reina off Agger's shoulder.

Just like when Liverpool went behind to Blackburn (and City), it didn't take long to level. Four minutes later, Taylor headed Enrique's cross to Adam at the back post. Tiote cut out the Scot's low cross to no one, but Bellamy was on hand for the rebound at the penalty spot, doing well to place his shot past three or four defenders on or near the goal line.

But to continue the infuriating Blackburn parallel, Liverpool rarely looked like converting a quick equalizer into a definitive advantage. Newcastle started the second half the stronger side, with concrete, tangible spells of possession in Liverpool's half, if still wholly starved of chances by Skrtel, Agger, and Spearing.

Then Gerrard replaced Adam, with Liverpool more a 4-3-3 as both Henderson and Captain Fantastic pushed forward. Seven minutes later, Liverpool had the lead, coming back from a deficit in a league match for the first time under Dalglish. Agger bombed forward on another trademark run, tripped by Tiote, and Bellamy's free kick eluded Williamson, Simpson, and Krul with Carroll causing statuesque havoc in front of the trio.

But if not for Martin Skrtel, Newcastle would have scored their second almost immediately after, on Demba Ba's (and Newcastle's for that matter) only true sight of goal. Cabaye's perfectly-timed throughball released Ba behind Agger before Reina could close down, but Skrtel heroically flew into the goal mouth to clear the striker's insanely smart flick. Indescribably important, and yet more evidence of just how immense Skrtel has been this season, up there with the best center-backs in the league.

Carroll could have increased the gap in the 73rd, hitting the woodwork for the 1776783rd time when out-jumping Williamson to meet Gerrard's cross. It was the captain who sealed matters in the 78th, put through by Henderson's blind through following a nice set-up by Spearing, sliding the strike under Krul from the acutest of angles after a dictionary definition run into the box. From there, 15 or so minutes of exceptionally-welcome cruise control as Liverpool finally saw out a win under no pressure.

If we're being churlish, we could complain about how Newcastle could have seen two players sent off: Cabaye's stamp on Spearing and Coloccini's elbow to Bellamy's brow line. It's the first time this season that Liverpool have overcome a referee's potentially game-altering errors. That's heart-warming in and of itself. Something along the lines of "you make your own luck" seems fitting here.

Bellamy and Skrtel were both fantastic, each deserving of man of the match. Bellamy scored twice, a typical abrasive handful, while Skrtel trapped Ba in a closet for 89:50 of 90 minutes. Nonetheless, it's impossible to look past Gerrard's cameo, arguably a more important substitute appearance than last season's hat-trick against Napoli. Just having Gerrard on the pitch was enough to make other raise their games, while Kuyt also put in a shift when replacing Bellamy off the bench. His goal was one of those Liverpool have dearly missed, midfielders supporting strikers with dangerous runs from deep, but his crossing was just as impressive. More than any other, Carroll should massively benefit from his return.

Meanwhile, defending Carroll has become like defending Heskey under Houllier – a comparison that will reassure no one, I'm sure. It's fairly easy when Liverpool win. It's a lot harder when they're struggling for goals. His hold-up play was hit and miss, his movement questionable, and his touch in front of goal terrible. But his positioning on Liverpool's goals shows how he helps the team even when wholly goal-shy: a general handful who creates space for others by occupying defenders. Liverpool far need more than a spearhead decoy during this goal drought, but at least there are signs of potential. And while it's not a very good excuse, he remains unfortunate; few if any strikers even reach the chance he headed off the bar with Williamson draped all over him. He looked far, far, far more dangerous with Gerrard whipping in crosses.

Liverpool scoring three was a long-delayed inevitability. That it was against Newcastle, no matter their form, should surprise no one. Liverpool have now scored three against the Geordies in the last four matches at Anfield, winning the last seven by at least a two-goal margin.

At the same time, it's another good performance against good competition. Newcastle are still seventh after all. Playing up to the opposition's level hasn't been an issue – see Arsenal, Everton, United, Chelsea (x2), and City for other examples. It's still, and will remain still, beating the sides Liverpool are supposed to beat, especially at Anfield.

Regardless, there are multiple good signs leading to Tuesday's trip to Manchester City. None more so than Gerrard's barnstorming comeback.

Liverpool v Newcastle 12.30.11

2011-12-29T12:12:00.000-05:00

2:45pm ET, live in the US on FSC.

Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (h) 05.01.11
1-3 Newcastle (a) 12.11.10
3-0 Liverpool (h) 05.03.09
5-1 Liverpool (a) 12.28.08

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 Wigan (a); 2-0 Villa (a); 1-0 QPR (h)
Newcastle: 2-0 Bolton (a); 2-3 West Brom (h); 0-0 Swansea (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 5; Own Goal 3; Adam, Bellamy, Carroll, Maxi, Skrtel 2; Gerrard, Henderson, Johnson 1
Newcastle: Ba 14; Best 3; R Taylor 2; Sh Ameobi, Ben Arfa, Cabaye, Gosling, Jonas 1

Referee: Lee Probert

Terrified of jinxing it, but since I bash referees here all the time, unfairly or not, probably should mention that Probert is one of my favorites. Please keep it that way.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Downing Henderson Spearing Maxi
Carroll Bellamy

And to think, in Monday's match review, I hoped that Suarez would soon get a rest, both for his and Liverpool's sake. Thankfully, the FA has everyone's best interests at heart. Due to Suarez's non-verbal "outburst" against Fulham, he's suspended for Friday's match.

With the Uruguayan absent, Carroll seemingly has to start against his former club – something he was unable to do in this fixture last May. Whether it's with Bellamy or Kuyt or, less likely, up front on his own is a far tougher question. Aside from Carroll's penalty miss, one of seemingly hundreds for Liverpool so far this season, the Carroll-Bellamy pairing played well in its last outing, against Chelsea in the Carling Cup.

The other lineup question pertains to central midfield. Maxi and Downing played well against Blackburn; there's no need to change either without fitness concerns. Conversely, Liverpool's central midfield was incredibly poor against Blackburn. Adam was the worst offender, and his unlucky own goal is irrelevant to that opinion. More important was that he and Henderson failed to look a pairing in the slightest. They were two central midfielders ostensibly playing in the same area, with only a general idea of what the other was trying to accomplish. Small wonder Liverpool looked so disjointed at times. Liverpool have multiple options for rectifying that problem: Gerrard could join the duo or replace either – although I suspect he'll have one more appearance off the bench before starting – or Spearing could replace one of the two or Shelvey could play behind the striker as against Aston Villa. Regardless, something needs to change. Cabaye and Tiote are miles upon miles better than Nzonzi-Dunn-Pedersen or McCarthy-Diame.

Finally, there also seems no need to change the back-line unless fitness demands it. If Johnson-Skrtel-Agger-Enrique start, it'd be the 10th league game in a row where Liverpool played the same back five. That's implausible consistency, and it's no coincidence the team has only conceded three goals during that 810-minute stretch. Long may it continue.

That Newcastle is just one point behind Liverpool despite winning just one of their last seven – Monday's trip to Bolton – losing four and drawing two, demonstrates just how strong the club's start to the season was. Or it's a sign that Liverpool have been wholly unable to take advantage of competitors' setbacks. Maybe both. Newcastle's descent from third on November 20 to seventh has coincided with injuries to both central defenders. Coloccini's fit again, but Steven Taylor will miss the rest of the season after tearing his Achilles. Marveaux's also out with a groin injury (surprise, surprise), while Dan Gosling is suspended.

Despite the recent slide, Demba Ba is still scoring like the world's really ending in 2012, Cabaye and Tiote have made an excellent midfield partnership, and both Obertan and Jonas could reap the benefits if Johnson and Enrique bomb forward just once too often. Ben Arfa was excellent off the bench in Newcastle's last match at Bolton; I expect he'll start on Friday, with Newcastle more a 4-4-1-1/4-5-1 than the more-frequently-seen 4-4-2 with Ba and Best/Ameobi up top. Krul; Simpson, Williamson, Coloccini, R Taylor; Obertan, Tiote, Cabaye, Jonas; Ben Arfa; Ba.

None of the Newcastle players who scored against Liverpool nearly a year ago are still with the club: Nolan's at West Ham, Barton's at QPR, and you all know where Andy Carroll ended up. I'm sure you remember the 1-3 loss; that followed up with 0-1 v Wolves and 1-3 at Blackburn were the blows which finally broke the doddering camel.

Meanwhile, Newcastle haven't scored at Anfield since December 2004, a Kluivert opener in a 3-1 Liverpool win. Liverpool have won all six meetings since conceding that goal, scoring 16 without reply. It's one of the best recent records against any club in the division.

But this is the best Newcastle side Liverpool have faced since then, no matter recent woes. The template for beating them remains the template to Liverpool's improvement. Keep doing the same successful things in defense, but put the ball in the back of the net slightly more often.

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Meta FYI: I'll be gone through the weekend immediately following the match. Happy New Year's and whatnot. I will try to finish the match review before leaving town, but no promises. Then radio silence until Monday.

Liverpool 1-1 Blackburn

2011-12-26T13:08:00.001-05:00

Goals:
Adam (og) 45'
Maxi 53'

Liverpool have been massively unlucky in an awful lot of matches, but this one's going to take some beating. Another terrible, horrible, no good, very bad home draw in a season already chock-full of them.

Blackburn had exactly one chance, from Dunn in the 79th, on the break and spoiled by his own teammate. The one they scored was entirely of Liverpool's own making. Entirely. At least Larsson struck a wonder goal to get Sunderland a point. Stoke's penalty winner was harsh but fair. Norwich and United arguably merited their equalizers; Hart's been brilliant for City in the past.

There's far less of an excuse for this one. It should have been a replica of Liverpool's last home victory against QPR, going ahead early in the second half after wasting first half supremacy; 1-0 despite frustration, despite profligacy, despite a back-up keeper's brilliance. No such luck.

To be fair, Liverpool haven't been good enough in an awful lot of matches either. Same old story writ large, again and again and again. At least the woodwork wasn't involved. Blackburn's defensive discipline was enough to cancel out being "terrible in midfield" and "absolutely invisible in attack." At least until Liverpool's inevitable, typical late flurry, which again saw yet another unfathomable save from a goalkeeper with no history of them. And then a clearance off the goal-line for good measure.

Tactics changed – back to the 4-4-2 formation with Carroll in the line-up and Liverpool looking to open by Blackburn with long passing and crosses – but the story stayed the same. All the possession, mostly in Blackburn's half, with chances missed due to a combination of poor finishing, surprising keeping, and questionable decisions. Suarez created four openings almost by himself, but put all four shots off target, then spoiled Downing's excellent opportunity by selfishly touching when clearly offside. Carroll was denied during a 27th-minute goal-mouth scramble when Bunn smartly flashed a hand up to stop his point-blank effort. And Maxi was wrongly ruled offside when he should have won a clear penalty in the 32nd. Yes, yes, Liverpool probably would have missed it anyway. Ha ha.

To make matters infinitely worse, the dominant home side were behind at half-time for the first time at Anfield thanks to one player's poor decision and one player's supremely unlucky touch. Agger lingered on a Blackburn hoof out of defense, trying to be clever when under pressure from a lumbering Yakubu, conceding an unmerited corner. In beating Formica to the near post cross, Adam somehow flicked the ball just over Enrique guarding the post, nestling unerringly in the top corner. 99 times out of a hundred, that ends up in the Kop. Even this season.

As against QPR, Liverpool had tails up after the restart, almost certainly rightfully screamed at for 15 straight minutes. A 53th-minute equalizer, Maxi at the back post heading in Skrtel's (!!!) clever cross after Liverpool's corner was only half-cleared, looked karmic retribution, with more than 35 minutes to escape to victory against opposition previously unable to do anything right. Nope. Like against Blackpool last season – coincidentally, another Mike Jones match – Liverpool didn't have enough, didn't do enough, to earn the "deserved" result.

Gerrard's return, on in the 68th for the suffering Adam, improved matters, with the captain's dynamism immediately evident, but Liverpool left the late flurry late, frustrated by Blackburn's packed defense until the final minutes.

But the infinitely repeated narratives roared back with a vengeance in those final minutes. First, opportunities squandered: a Carroll header wide, Downing shots tame then over, Enrique shots well over. Then, out-of-character, unbelievable defensive heroics. Deep into injury time, Bunn preposterously stopped Carroll's flick from a yard out. On the subsequent corner, Agger's free header found 17-year-old left back Henley on the far post.

We can only blame wastefulness and misfortune so often. Once again, stats lie. 65% possession to Blackburn's 35%. 27 shots to 6; 7 on target, 15 off, 6 blocked to 1, 4, and 1. More than 200 more passes attempted and completed than the away side. Any progress this team is making, any possible optimism, continues to be squashed by Liverpool's inability to get wins they have little excuse for not getting.

Downing played well, Maxi scored again, and the defense was untroubled aside from that moment of madness. Liverpool's midfield wasn't very good until Gerrard came on – even discounting the own goal, Adam did not play well – but Liverpool also often abdicated the center of the park in favor of long balls and working the flanks.

Carroll certainly shouldn't be the scapegoat, twice foiled by Bunn, getting into position for three of Liverpool's best chances. It's not as if today's problems have only come with the much-maligned 35 MILLION POUND!!!!!!! man on the pitch. Meanwhile, all six of Suarez's shots missed the target. It seems insane to suggest, but I'm increasingly convinced Liverpool need to leave Suarez out one of these days. Few are better at creating someone from less than nothing, losing defenders with feints, shimmies, and shakes, but his shooting accuracy's been beyond horrific. To say nothing of his off-field concerns, as I won't pretend to divine his current mental state, it feels almost as if Liverpool need to see what they're capable without its attacking focal point.

With another match on Friday, at least there's little time to linger on a familiar setback. That match will finally mark the season's halfway point; it'll be a lot harder to trot out these tiresomely reiterated excuses no matter the overall progress made over the last 12 months.

Liverpool v Blackburn 12.26.11

2011-12-24T16:39:00.000-05:00

10am ET, live in the US on Fox Deportes and FoxSoccer.tv. And all the usual streams that most will have to fall back on.

Last four head-to-head:
1-3 Blackburn (a) 02.12.11
2-1 Liverpool (h) 11.10.10
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.08.09
2-1 Liverpool (h) 08.24.09

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 Wigan (a); 2-0 Villa (a); 1-0 QPR (h)
Blackburn: 1-2 Bolton (h); 1-2 West Brom (h); 1-2 Sunderland (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 5; Own Goal 3; Adam, Bellamy, Carroll, Skrtel 2; Gerrard, Henderson, Johnson, Maxi 1
Blackburn: Yakubu 10, Hoilett 3; Formica, Rochina, Samba 2; Dann, Gamst, Simon 1

Referee: Mike Jones

Beachball. 1-2 Blackpool at Anfield. 0-4 Spurs. Mike Jones might not be Liverpool's favorite referee.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Spearing Adam
Kuyt Henderson Maxi
Suarez

Gerrard might make the bench. Spearing returns from suspension. Anything else happened over the last week?

Otherwise, it's the same old questions. 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1? What will the midfield look like? Who'll play on the flanks? Will Liverpool use Carroll and/or Bellamy? Match after match after match over the festive season, not to mention Liverpool's consistent inconsistency, makes this guessing game even more difficult than usual.

Since Gerrard almost certainly won't start – most likely coming off the bench whenever he returns, as in his aborted comeback a few months earlier – what formation Liverpool will use will probably depend on how (and if) Spearing's reintegrated into the side.

Liverpool played 4-4-2 with Spearing and Adam against Fulham, then 4-2-3-1 two out of the last three matches, with Henderson and Adam holding in midfield. My consensus solution is to push Henderson further forward, as he played against Arsenal in August and where Shelvey and Maxi played during Spearing's suspension. But there's also the small matter of Bellamy and Carroll. Either could partner Suarez, as could Kuyt, with two of the three above midfielders in Liverpool's "old" formation. Both Bellamy and Kuyt could show up on the wings, either in place of Maxi or Downing, as could Henderson with Spearing back in the side.

Liverpool aren't lacking in possibilities, just lacking answers to persistent, malingering questions: how can the side fulfill its sometimes-seen potential, will players start converting the multiple chances at goal. It's nearly January, and "own goal" is still Liverpool's second top-scorer with three. The side's scored three in just one league fixture this season, back in August against Bolton. And yet, somehow, the club's just three points from fourth spot.

All that seems certain, or at least probable, is the back five remaining the same and Suarez starting yet again. England's favorite scapegoat stuttered in the spotlight against Wigan, but I doubt he'll be left out, no matter the sky-consuming storm cloud still hovering directly overhead.

It could be worse. Blackburn have it worse. Bottom of the league, having lost the last three. Steve Kean is Lancashire public enemy number one, and poor Scott Dann's woes sum up the season – unremittingly horrible. I wouldn't wish a ruptured testicle on my worst enemy. Paul Robinson's probably out as well, which means it'll have to be Blackburn's back-up, Matt Bunn, who has the usual opposition blinder at Anfield. Givet, Olsson, and Nelsen are also injured.

Despite Blackburn's utterly woeful form, Yakubu has twice the amount of goals as Luis Suarez, and more than Suarez, Carroll, Bellamy, and Kuyt combined. That stat says more about Liverpool's current scoring proficiency than almost any other. Dalglish unsurprisingly singled out the player in pre-match comments, but it's worth noting that both Skrtel and Agger have done well against burly strikers over the last month.

Blackburn haven't beaten Liverpool at Anfield since 1999, Rovers' season of Hodgson woe, one which saw the side relegated soon after that Anfield win. Fittingly, last season's trip to Blackburn represented the end of Liverpool's Hodgson era, an all-too-typical pathetic 1-3 loss. That victory was the high-water mark of Steve Kean's short reign, the one which earned him a long-term contract. It'd be another eerie parallel if Liverpool were to doom his regime by finally exorcising their goal-scoring demons.

Infographic – Captain Fantastic

2011-12-23T09:10:00.001-05:00

I've been working on this sporadically for a few weeks. It's not finished, as Gerrard's career isn't finished, but I thought I'd open the floor for comments. Consider it an early Christmas (or late Hanukkah, very late Diwali or Ramadan, etc) gift.

All stats from the indispensable LFCHistory.net. Full-size version, in new window, available here.

Maybe this is better termed a "draft." It will obviously be updated when Gerrard retires in a decade or so (here's hoping!), and there are undoubtedly more stats I could and should have included. Plus, I'm not sold on the title layout. I welcome any and all suggestions, even more than usual.

But I couldn't wait that long to break it out, and these few days between Wigan and Blackburn presented the opportunity. He'll be back on the pitch soon, adding to these extraordinary totals, and it's not like there's anything to write about in regards to off-the-pitch matters or Liverpool's Uruguayan striker.

Preview for Monday's match against Blackburn up when I get a chance tomorrow. Have a happy holidays.

Liverpool 0-0 Wigan

2011-12-21T17:54:00.000-05:00

Remember that perverse, pervasive sense of impending doom that followed the club around throughout 2009-10? Not the dreadful, soul-killing horribleness that was the Hodgson era, but the perpetual Sword of Damocles which hung over Benitez's final campaign, where we fearfully waited to see what could go wrong next. Yeah, this week has brought back that feeling. Even this trip to Wigan paralleled that season's, Benitez's nail in the coffin, in its overwhelming disappointment. At least Liverpool held on for the point here? Regardless, feeling that feeling probably isn't good.

Instead of this week's perceived injustices catalyzing the side, we saw the most-comprehensive team failure since the 0-4 thrashing at Spurs, a failure marginally more excusable because of Adam's early red card. It is no exaggeration to suggest that every player save Reina disappointed today. Another match where Liverpool started well, missed chances, and ended the worse side probably makes the Swansea contest the closest comparison, not to mention the equivalent results, but that didn't come with the same stomach punch. It's been that sort of week.

Yes, Liverpool would have won had they taken advantage of its excellent pressing start, with a handful of chances in the opening 25 minutes. Yes, Liverpool would have won had they converted a gifted penalty soon after the restart when Caldwell handballed Suarez's bicycle, only to miss the fourth spot kick in this season's five attempts. But Wigan were simply better – at least more threatening – for long stretches after that initial promise, with 19 shots to Liverpool's 21, 45% possession to Liverpool's 55% (after something in the region of 68-32% possession in the first half of the first half), and tested Reina from in and outside the box. The consistently steady back line became stretched with Liverpool haphazardly piling players forward, and both Skrtel and Johnson committed frightening errors reminiscent of bad memories from previous campaigns.

But with another clean sheet, the full scapegoat glare will fall on Liverpool's chronic inability to put the damned ball into the damned net, whether because of poor finishing, excellent keeping, or intangible luck. The woodwork wasn't involved this time. Al Habsi did well to stop Henderson, Kuyt, and Johnson's smart first half shots, and did even better to stop Adam's 51st-minute spot kick, a harder-hit copy of the one Carroll had saved in the league cup. Despite a couple of half-chances as the match went on, mostly through set plays, Liverpool got notably worse after the penalty miss, with the frustration evident from across the ocean. Meanwhile, Wigan continued to sporadically petrify when breaking out of its nine-at-the-back defense.

Tactically, full credit goes to Roberto Martinez. Wigan's five-man back line, a replica of the formation deployed against Chelsea, blanketed Liverpool's 4-2-3-1. No space plus mounting frustration is rarely a productive combination. The away side used the same XI as against QPR, with Maxi and Kuyt replacing Shelvey and Bellamy, but kept the same formation as at Villa Park on Sunday. Most likely rattled by events on and off the pitch, Liverpool pushed harder and harder but not smarter and smarter, which allowed Wigan to expose the defense on the counter. After two solid performances, the Henderson-Adam pairing simply did not work, and like Fulham, it's a result I'm tempted to credit most to Lucas' absence, no matter Liverpool's never-ending profligacy.

I probably can't get away without writing about Suarez, off-form and often isolated. Maxi dropped deeper than Shelvey on Sunday, and never looked the magic goal-scorer he's been from the flanks. Blaming Suarez's woes on yesterday's FA verdict and his subsequent ostracism by the great and good English media is simplistic but unavoidable, trudging off miserably when replaced by Carroll in the 87th. Not that he had much help. Sadly, off-field events do matter.

With Liverpool more open than a pervert's trench-coat when Wigan counter-attacked, it'll be interesting to see if Spearing comes straight back into the side with his suspension over. And then there's the small matter of Steven Gerrard imminent return.

Things do not look good at the moment. After 17 games, Liverpool have eight wins, six (!!!) draws, and three losses. Right now, Liverpool deserve to be in sixth, and Dalglish has multiple plates to spin and problems to solve. But the season isn't half over yet, and there are many more twists and turns to come despite current, obvious faults. We'll have more than enough time to wring hands and cry woe over falling skies if need be. Hope is dwindling, but hope isn't lost because of an away draw in a venue where Liverpool haven't won in five seasons.

Liverpool at Wigan 12.21.11

2011-12-21T07:56:00.000-05:00

This preview was written yesterday, before the Suarez verdict. I thought about rewriting it. I still don't know what to say. Everyone's fumbling in the dark with just the FA's paltry statement to grasp onto, basing every opinion (and they are opinions) on their own biases (myself included). Until the FA releases its corresponding evidence, this ordeal seems more Franz Kafka's The Trial than "standard" football discipline. Two fingers, one in the eye of Liverpool, one in the eye of FIFA, in the hopes of political point scoring. I truly hope that isn't the case.

The only change I'd make to this preview is in regards to Suarez' starting. I honestly have no clue whether Dalglish will throw him into the fray. He's not suspended (yet), but only the manager knows if his mind's in the right place to play. Or whether Kuyt and/or Carroll will play because both will be needed if Suarez ends up missing eight games. But, again, no one but the club and the FA can answer these questions, and they've not been answered yet. Anyway...

3pm ET, live in the US on espn3. Or WatchESPN. Whatever it's called now. The online-only one, available only if your TV/internet providers aren't jerk-offs.

Incidentally, ESPN has the rights to three matches today: this, Villa v Arsenal, and Everton v Swansea. They are televising none, relegating all to the internet in favor of NFL Live, Dan LeBatard, and Jim Rome. Those lazy bums in Congress should pass a law preventing ESPN from bidding on "soccer" rights or something. I will not stop complaining about this and I apologize for nothing.

Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 02.12.11
1-1 (a) 11.10.10
0-1 Wigan (a) 03.08.09
2-1 Liverpool (h) 08.24.09

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-0 Villa (a); 1-0 QPR (h); 0-1 Fulham (a)
Wigan: 1-1 Chelsea (h); 2-1 West Brom (a); 0-4 Arsenal (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 5; Own Goal 3; Adam, Bellamy, Carroll, Skrtel 2; Gerrard, Henderson, Johnson, Maxi 1
Wigan: Di Santo, Gomez 4; Diame, Watson 2; Caldwell, Crusat, Moses 1

Referee: Michael Oliver

The youngest PL referee, Oliver's been in charge of just two Liverpool games: a 2008 Carling Cup win against Crewe and Dalglish's first league game back last season, a loss at Blackpool. I remember absolutely nothing about his performance in either and hope that's a good sign.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Henderson Adam
Downing Shelvey Maxi
Suarez

Once again, I doubt there'll be many changes despite another away match 78 hours after the previous.

One likely switch seems to be someone in place of Bellamy, who played 87 minutes against Villa and who rarely starts consecutive matches, especially two in the space of a few days. Maxi, in a straight swap, seems the most likely replacement, but Dalglish could also bring Downing back to the left flank with Kuyt coming in on the right.

Shelvey, a surprise starter on Sunday, also seems less guaranteed than most. I'd like to see him given a second opportunity, but either Kuyt or Carroll could come into the side if Liverpool revert to the standard 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 formation. Again away from Anfield, that formation seems more probable than against Villa, with Liverpool likely to dictate terms and tempo to the home side. Similar to how Liverpool lined up at West Brom earlier this season, but obviously (sigh) without Lucas.

If Carroll plays, I'm increasingly convinced he needs to start. He's had next to no impact when featuring as a substitute, almost always struggling to adapt to the rhythm. Off the bench against Bolton, Stoke, Norwich, Chelsea, City, and Villa, the only match where Carroll came close to making a difference was against City, forcing Hart into a heroic win-denying save, but that was with Liverpool pushing furiously thanks to the man advantage. Not that Carroll's often impressed from the start either (sigh), but they've been vastly different degrees of "struggling."

Currently 18th, Wigan are coming off an encouraging draw against Chelsea, definitely deserving of their point. Roberto Martinez's biggest problem has been his side's scoring inaptitude – 15 through 16 matches, joint-lowest in the league (yes, yes, only five fewer than Liverpool). Historically reliant on Rodallega over the last few campaigns, the Colombian's disappointed so far, still scoreless and now doubtful after picking up a knock against Chelsea. Either Sammon or Di Santo has usually started in his stead.

Wigan used five at the back on Saturday (which inevitably became nine at the back), attempting to soak up Chelsea pressure before bringing on both Rodallega and Di Santo, leading to Gomez's equalizer when Cech fumbled Rodallega's fairly-routine shot. Looking far more secure than in the previous home match, an 0-4 loss to a rampant Arsenal, Martinez could replicate those tactics against Liverpool, forcing the away side to patiently break them down, as many others have done to Dalglish's men this season.

With one win in the last five against Wigan and without a win at the DW Stadium since September 2007, the Latics have become something of a bogey side. Both of last season's draws – 1-1 in each, under both Hodgson and Dalglish – came when Liverpool conceded a second half goal after scoring in the first. With similar results "earned" against Sunderland, United, and Norwich earlier this season, that remains a frightening possibility if Liverpool remains unable to put chances created to full use.

Liverpool 2-0 Aston Villa

2011-12-18T11:55:00.000-05:00

Goals:
Bellamy 11'
Skrtel 15'

Winning with ease when not on top form is far more fun than frustrating draws or defeats when dominant. Still, if not for converting the first two corners within 15 minutes, Liverpool could well be ruing more missed chances and more effort rebounding off wider-than-normal goal posts. That narrative's not going away.

Liverpool's 4-2-3-1 formation, with Shelvey replacing Kuyt in a free role behind Suarez and Bellamy in Maxi's stead, announced the game plan. The away side were content to smother and nullify the opposition while playing for the counter-attack and set plays, allowing frequently goal-shy Villa (missing its top two attackers) less than zero time and space in the final third.

Those tactics paid off quickly thanks to Villa's abysmal set play defending. It was easy to see how they'd conceded more than a third of their goals from corners. All involved stood still as statutes while Suarez then Bellamy attempted to prod in Shelvey's near-post flick for the opener. Four minutes later, Skrtel's straight run across the six-yard box easily freed him from both Dunne and Hutton, although his header had to be perfectly placed to beat Guzan.

Two goals to the good, rather than the usual tenuous one (at best), meant Liverpool could focus on cementing defense solidity. Villa took 16 shots, 11 in the first half. Just three came from inside the penalty box (one in the first half). None troubled Reina. But Liverpool only threatened once more before the interval, with Guzan saving Shelvey's point-blank toe-poke in the 38th, set up by Suarez after nutmegging Petrov on the break.

The away side should have extended its lead in the 15 minutes after the restart, with five excellent opportunities to exterminate the game once and for all, denied by a mixture of poor finishing, decent saves, and that blasted woodwork. Agger headed wide after continuing his bursting run forward, Suarez cheekily hit both bar and post on separate delightfully-created chances, Guzan saved Johnson's swerving bolt, and Adam saw his selfish shot on the counter deflected just wide with Shelvey open and screaming for the ball. It's a good thing that Liverpool didn't need those goals. For once. The side's 17 shots off the frame is more than 15 of 20 Premiership sides had through all of last season. Suarez remains the only player to hit the woodwork more than once in a match, and he's done it twice this season.

The last thirty minutes were a mere formality. Liverpool stopped sending so many forward when countering, Villa remained wholly unable to penetrate a resolute back line. That Dalglish used all three subs – Carroll for Suarez, Kuyt for Bellamy, and Carragher for Shelvey (playing as a holding midfielder!) – seems the only matter of note.

Villa were absolutely dire, as in last season's Anfield meeting, devoid of confidence and shorn of the two players with any attacking competence. That Liverpool rendered them more hopeless than usual – while scoring twice for only the sixth time in 16 games – can't be overlooked, though. Some credit has to go to Dalglish's tactics, both in nullifying Villa's attack and exposing a slow back line with direct counter-attacks. And it's been more than a year since Liverpool scored twice from corners, Liverpool's third and fourth goals from corners this season.

The defense was the star of the show: Johnson and Enrique bombed down the flanks, Skrtel was successful in all of his tackles and aerial duels again, and Agger completely blunted the already-blunt Heskey. Bellamy's probably man of the match, scoring one and making one. Downing had another good game on the right of midfield; while still assist-less, he played a crucial role in taking Liverpool's first corner. Shelvey did well in his first start, trying to dictate play from a free role high up the pitch. Suarez, usually hanging on the shoulder of the last defender, merited at least one goal, pressing furiously from the front.

If it were eight months ago, this would have been another 5-0 or 5-2 romp a la Brum or Fulham, but we'll have to be satisfied with a comfortable 2-0. Yes, Liverpool should have had more – not the first time that's been written this season – but two goals is more than Liverpool have scored at Villa Park since 2007-08, which required an unfathomable Gerrard free kick in the dying seconds for three points. Liverpool now have five wins away from Anfield in eight matches, which is the same total taken through all of last season. Regrettable losses against Stoke and Fulham aside, Dalglish and Clarke have so far solved Liverpool's away day calculus.

Now Liverpool just need to calculate a way to convert more of its chances and remove that bedeviling woodwork from the equation.

Liverpool at Aston Villa 12.18.11

2011-12-16T13:56:00.000-05:00

9:05am ET, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus

Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Villa (a) 05.22.11
3-0 Liverpool (h) 12.06.10
1-0 Liverpool (a) 12.29.09
1-3 Villa (h) 08.24.09

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 QPR (h); 0-1 Fulham (a); 2-0 Chelsea (a)
Villa: 2-1 Bolton (a); 0-1 United (h); 0-0 Swansea (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 5; Own Goal 3; Adam, Carroll 2; Bellamy, Gerrard, Henderson, Johnson, Maxi, Skrtel 1
Villa: Agbonlahor, Bent 5; Petrov 3; Albrighton, Bannan, Dunne, Heskey, Warnock 1

Referee: Peter Walton

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Downing Henderson Adam Maxi
Suarez Bellamy

It'll seem as if Liverpool are playing nearly every day over the next few weeks, with eight matches in a month, but there's probably little point in wholesale changes just yet. Last Saturday's XI, while undeniably (still) goal-shy, played well, and Liverpool will probably have to break down a similarly cagey, blunt opposition.

The lone suggested alteration is Bellamy, rested after exertions against Chelsea and Fulham, in place of Kuyt. The Dutchman, while diligent against QPR, has been slightly off-form all season, failing to score since May. And Andy Carroll remains the suave, expensive elephant in the room. He will assuredly receive chances over the holiday fixtures, but I don't know if 90 minutes spent wrestling in the agricultural Dunne and Collins' pig sty is the best way to break his drought.

Otherwise, Henderson and Adam were excellent in midfield last time out, the back four has been near flawless, Maxi continues to look one of Liverpool's few goal-threats, and Downing – tantalizingly up against his former club – was much-improved on the right. More of that please.

It hasn't taken long for McLeish to mold Villa in his image. Until last weekend's win at even-more-depressing Bolton, Villa had nearly the same record as relegated Birmingham had through 14 games last season: an equal number of points, while scoring and conceding just one less goal. Villa have beaten the three sides in the relegation zone plus Norwich, lost to three of the top four and West Brom, and have drawn the other seven, all against sides somewhere between 7th and 17th. Par for the course.

Given's hamstring injury is Villa's biggest woe at the moment, although the Midlands club will also miss Agbonlahor, suspended for Sunday. With Delph recovering from a knee problem, Villa's other casualties are Jenas and American Eric Lichaj. If McLeish sticks with the 4-4-2 used in the last five or six matches, Heskey will partner Bent up front; two of Delph, Herd, and Petrov will be in central midfield; two of Albrighton, Bannan, and N'Zogbia will man the flanks; and the back four will be Hutton, Collins, Dunne, and former red Stevie Warnock.

Harsh losses against Stoke and Fulham aside, Liverpool have been marginally better away from Anfield. At the least, wins against Chelsea, Arsenal, and Everton are still the acme for the season so far.

In recent years, games against Villa have followed a fairly set pattern. Lots of goals are scored at Anfield (3-0, 1-3, 5-0, 2-2, and 3-1 since 2006-07), hardly any are scored at Villa Park (0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2, and 0-0 in the same time frame). No matter Liverpool's enduring impressive knack for wasting chances or the undeniable desire to maul some hapless opponent into oblivion, any sort of win – narrow or vast, lucky or deserved – will suffice on Sunday.

Infographic – Goals Through 15 Games

2011-12-12T10:48:00.001-05:00

Goals, goals, goals. With Liverpool wasting chance after chance, profligacy to blame for home draws with Norwich, Swansea, and Sunderland as well as away losses to Stoke and Fulham, the number of goals scored has become both millstone and mantra, a clear problem in obvious need of fixing, the major fault keeping the side from reaching its full potential.

But how does this season compare to Liverpool's goal tally in previous campaigns?

18 goals through 15 games is the third-lowest total since 2004-05, behind last season's abomination (by just one) and the 2006-07 campaign. But the most goals scored through 15 games came in 2009-10, where Liverpool had 31 by this point yet finished in 7th, the worst result from these seven seasons. Which makes for poor precedent.

So, is there any correlation with goals and league position?

The best correlation isn't between goals scored and overall points total, it's goals conceded and overall points total. Those two lists are in almost the exact same order. Which would be good news for this season if correlation always implied causation; the 13 conceded through 15 games is fourth-best since Benitez took over. And that includes the four-goal drubbing Spurs gave 10-man Liverpool in September, almost a third of the total goals conceded and the only time the team's let in more than one per match this season.

Four from seven clearly isn't the most-authoritative sample size, but since 2004-05, Liverpool have never finished worse than fourth when conceding less than a goal per game through 15 matches. Writing as much seems unnecessary, but fourth place is both target and bare minimum this season.

Nonetheless, obviously, scoring more goals certainly couldn't hurt.

Liverpool 1-0 QPR

2011-12-10T13:00:00.000-05:00

Goals:
Suarez 47'

Just good enough. The difference that taking just one of those oft-mentioned chances makes.

25 shots, eight on target, with the woodwork hit twice. 62% possession, 21 chances created. A handful of impressive, out-of-character saves by the opposition goalkeeper. But one went in, and one was enough.

The first half was the same story writ large in giant, tedious letters. Liverpool dominant, Liverpool untroubled, but Liverpool unable to score despite multiple opportunities to do so. The home side simply played keep-away, camped in QPR's half, winning seven corners in the first half hour. Within 15 minutes, Suarez had put a free header straight at Cerny, had an impossible-angled shot skitter across the face of goal after nicking the post, and had misfired after a brilliant one-two with the again-impressive Maxi. Cerny spectacularly denied the South American dynamic duo in the 31st and 42nd, then smothered Downing's near post blast to close the half. Suarez and Johnson also appealed for respective penalties that Mason would never deign to give. Meanwhile, QPR's lone riposte was a Wright-Phillips blast from distance that was more threatening to the stewards than Reina.

But nothing went in.

Then, in the 47th, something went in. Suarez, somehow allowed a second chance to avenge an opportunity wasted, set up by Adam's outstanding right-footed cross, put a free header from the exact same position where Cerny couldn't reach it this time.

Nothing ever comes easily, so it goes without saying that Liverpool weren't fortunate enough to burst that ubiquitous dam. Repeating heroics seen in front of the Kop all too often this season, QPR were kept in the game by their third-string (!) keeper, on a personal mission to deny Maxi an 11th goal in 10 starts. Cerny stonewalled the Argentinean twice, in the 61st and 67th, both set up by Suarez. The first was the other effort off the woodwork, saved onto the post after Suarez jinked into space and cut back to the penalty spot. The second was point blank after a four-touch one-two-one-two rendered both center-backs irrelevant.

With Liverpool increasingly content to counter-attack a compressed opposition after finally making the break-through, QPR's second substitution – replacing winger Tommy Smith with former Blackpool striker DJ Campbell with 25 minutes to play – made life marginally more terrifying. The away side finally had spells of coordinated possession, but few moments actually required Reina to contemplate intervention: a wild shot from distance here, a dangerous free kick flicked well over there, a few punches on the few corners QPR earned. When needed, Liverpool's defenders defended excellently: Skrtel consistently and Enrique notably on QPR's best and only real chance, in injury time, doing just enough to prevent a close-range back post header.

Because Liverpool's attackers got that one needed goal, the spine can get its due plaudits. The center-backs brooked no quarter and the only two available central midfielders, who hadn't previously started together in a two-man pairing, set the tone and tempo. Henderson's non-stop movement and Adam's ability on the ball muted Barton and Faurlin, and were crucial to Liverpool controlling the pace in the first hour. Adam, increasingly comfortable in every successive match, has been in outstanding form since Chelsea – better positionally, stronger on the ball, and winning aerial duels to go along with the ever-present (sometimes wayward) guided missile passing. And another pairing – the aforementioned Suarez and Maxi – will get deserved plaudits, the latter constantly threatening, as is his wont, and the former sccoring the winner, having his best game since that (sigh) first FA charge.

Admittedly, just one goal wasn't good enough against Norwich or Sunderland, and there were still far too many similarities to those set-backs. Opposition keeping and opportunities spurned remain valid, frustrating talking points, foreplay too often unfulfilled. But getting the necessary three points, any way possible, forged with resolute defending from all involved, is both confidence-enhancing progress and far more enjoyable than previously-seen alternatives.

Liverpool v QPR 12.10.11

2011-12-09T12:20:00.002-05:00

10am ET, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 02.11.96
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.30.95
1-1 (h) 02.11.95
1-2 QPR (a) 10.31.94

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 Fulham (a); 2-0 Chelsea (a); 1-1 City (a)
QPR: 1-1 West Brom (h); 1-2 Norwich (a); 3-2 Stoke (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 4; Own Goal 3; Adam, Carroll 2; Bellamy, Gerrard, Henderson, Johnson, Maxi, Skrtel 1
QPR: Helguson 6; Bothroyd, Young 2; Barton, Campbell. Faurlin, Smith 1

Referee: Lee Mason. Sigh.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Henderson Adam
Downing Shelvey Maxi
Suarez

At Anfield against a bottom-half side. What could go wrong? Oh, right. Swansea, Norwich, Sunderland. Well then.

Reina and the back four seem guaranteed, but with Lucas' injury, Spearing's suspension, and the entire strike force misfiring, I don't dare assume to be able to guess the front six with any certainty.

Does Dalglish stick with the 4-3-3 formation, which would suggest dropping Henderson deeper and bringing Shelvey in? Or will Liverpool actually try to play 4-4-2 with Henderson and Adam? Will Maxi, the only player scoring regularly, get back in the lineup? Or will we get some combination of Bellamy, Suarez, and Carroll again? And what about Kuyt – also not scoring, and hasn't started in Liverpool's last two games? So many questions. So many possibilities. So little precedent. Despite not totally humiliating myself with the "What Would Kenny Do" game this season, any predicted XI is less educated than usual.

Suarez seems the only sure starter in attack, and even he's not been in the best form of late. Think it's coincidence he hasn't scored since being charged with racially abusing Evra. Or that his last league goal came in the match prior to United? Or that he needs to be mauled with a dull hacksaw to win a free kick? Or that he's now facing another FA censure for a gesture that has seen multiple members of the England team go unpunished? If any game needed some Uruguayan thunder as a statement of intent, it's tomorrow's.

As for the other lot, Colin Wanker's side remains built in his image: experienced and irritating. At least Barton's amusing (and often redeems himself with Hillsborough campaigning). In 12th, with the same number of points as 9th-placed Villa but a -10 goal difference, Warnock's side are also maddening inconsistent. The three matches that opened the season were a win at Goodison bracketed by comprehensive losses to two sides who now prop up the table. In the last six weeks, they beat Chelsea, gave City one of its closest games of the season, and did something Liverpool notably failed to do – beat Stoke at the Britannia – but have since lost at Norwich and drawn West Brom at home.

With last season's Championship Cassanata wunderkind Taarabt still doubtful, missing the last few games with a thigh strain, the Hoops will probably continue with their 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 hybrid. Bothroyd or Mackie lurks around and behind Icelandic battering ram Helguson, Wright-Phillips and Barton patrol the flanks, and Faurlin and Derry hold in midfield. The veteran back-line – Traore (Armand, not Djimi), Gabbidon, Ferdinand (Anton, not Rio), and Young (Luke, not Neil) – is both veteran and settled, but QPR will have to play third-choice keeper Radek Cerny due to Paddy Kenny and Brian Murphy's injuries. In keeping with Liverpool's season so far, I congratulate on his game-of-the-season performance in advance.

Liverpool keep suffering glitches in the mainframe on and off the pitch, and like Monday's loss at Fulham, this will be arguably more of a test than reassuring results against Chelsea and City. The team notably struggles when facing supposedly weaker sides, emboldened against others in the "Big Six" (aside from recent bête noire Spurs). Of those currently in the bottom half of the league, Liverpool have met Norwich, Swansea, Sunderland, and Wolves at Anfield. I doubt I need to remind that they've won just one of those four, and had to fight to hold on against Mick McCarthy's side after taking a two-nil first half lead.

On Suarez and Spearing's Positioning

2011-12-06T15:22:00.001-05:00

Lucas' absence and Liverpool's subsequent change in formation altered the position of two of Liverpool's key players against Fulham: whoever the holding midfielder is and Luis Suarez.

Jay Spearing often played further up the pitch than Lucas usually defends, while far more static in general. The 4-3-3 formation, with Carroll as center-point and Suarez and Bellamy lurking on either side, meant Liverpool's talismanic Uruguayan took up positions further from goal.

I'm using West Brom away, Stoke away, and Wolves at Anfield as points of comparison in chalkboards below. As said in yesterday's review, I think West Brom is the strongest parallel except in finishing – similar opposition playing style, away from Anfield, and with Carroll and Henderson starting. Stoke away is comparable in result, losing despite domination, while Wolves at home was another where Liverpool's performance disappointed but the side ground out a result due to taking its chances early on. The possession, passing, and shot statistics against Fulham are relatively similar to those against West Brom and Wolves; the result is the same as that against Stoke. If anything, stats from Stoke and Fulham – the two losses – look "better" than those against Wolves or West Brom.

As usual, click on the chalkboards to make them pop-up full size.

Suarez

The chalkboards and heatmaps against Fulham show Suarez making more of his contributions further from the penalty area, whether deeper centrally or spending more time on the flanks. He attempted the fewest passes from these four matches against Fulham, and his performance is especially disappointing in comparison to that at West Brom – where he won the penalty and set up the second goal.

Suarez was widely known as a wide forward with Ajax before coming to Liverpool, but he's played as an out-and-out striker in almost every match under Dalglish, and is now playing a similar role with Uruguay (see Zonal Marking's Copa America reports, among others). His performance in a three-man front, an admittedly unfamiliar role at Liverpool, left much to be desired.

Update: Should have included take-ons as well. StatsZone chalkboards from Fulham (1 successful, 5 total), West Brom (3 of 6), Wolves (4 of 9), and Stoke (4 of 12).

Spearing

Unlike in Suarez's case, the amount of passes played seemed less important than the location, so I'm just including the heatmaps. That 40% zone stands out like a Las Vegas neon sign, surprisingly static, and further forward than Lucas usually plays. There was less movement in Liverpool's midfield without the Brazilian, as well as more space between the holding midfielder and back four, allowing more shots from distance than Liverpool regularly permits.

More chalkboards from Spearing at Fulham compared to Lucas against West Brom:

Spearing's tackles all occurred in the center of the pitch and most of his interceptions are in the same zone where 40% of his passes came from. Filling in for Lucas is a weighty burden, and it's a new role without a Brazilian safety net. Lucas partnered Spearing in all ten of the Liverpudlian's starts under Dalglish last season and in three of four prior to Fulham this season; Spearing with Adam in a 4-2-3-1 against Exeter had been the lone exception.

To be fair, Dalglish may have shifted to a 4-3-3 because of the opposition or to try to use Carroll, Bellamy, and Suarez at the same time, rather than because of Lucas' absence. Given how rarely we'd seen the formation – at Spurs was the only other time this season by my count, and that didn't last long; incidentally the only other time Liverpool's incurred a red card this season – some struggles are to be expected. But at the first time the question's asked, it's frightening evidence that Liverpool will miss Lucas Leiva very, very much.

Liverpool 0-1 Fulham

2011-12-05T18:10:00.005-05:00

Goals:
Dempsey 85'

Familiar storyline: Liverpool fail to convert chances when dominant, leading to more points dropped in a game Liverpool bossed. New plot twist: Refereeing decisions punish Liverpool even more than usual, culminating in a harsh red on Spearing that gave Fulham the advantage needed to take all three points.

Despite Liverpool's upper hand until the red card, we got an initial answer as to how the team will cope without Lucas. Not well.

Liverpool started in a 4-3-3 formation, with Suarez roaming and Bellamy staying quite wide on the right. After an early scare, with Reina coming out to block Dembele's shot after Ruiz' pass bisected Liverpool's back line, patient possession led to early Carroll and Henderson chances, both unluckily spurned. Carroll saw his diving, prodded attempt on Suarez's cut-back hit too close to Schwarzer in the 8th minute, Henderson hit the inside of the inside of the far post after bursting into the box 20 minutes later. Again unable to translate superiority into tangible results, Liverpool's increasing frustration allowed Fulham into the game late in the first half, often conceding possession by looking for overly-ambitious cross-field passes in a futile attempt to open up space somewhere.

Fulham's marginal ascendancy paid off with three marginally threatening shots from distance around the 40th minute: one saved, one well wide, and one tamely deflected to Reina. Those opportunities resulted from a gap between midfield and defense. You know, where Lucas usually draws a line in the sand in blood.

Spearing's instinct to play further forward, almost always partnered with Lucas under Dalglish, didn't help matters. It rendered Zamora fairly irrelevant as both center-backs kept him under close watch, but allowed what Dempsey and Dembele are best at. Liverpool were eventually punished by one, even if Reina's flub was more culpable and Spearing was long off the field by that point. The young midfielder will suffer enough criticism for his red card, and probably feels worse than any of us; I'm not necessarily criticizing his play, just where he played. He made five interceptions before going off. Three came in or near the center circle. These hitches are sadly expected when losing as crucial a player as Lucas. And, admittedly, those first half chances came to nothing and Spearing didn't do poorly. He's just not Lucas. Lucas didn't used to be Lucas either.

Liverpool pummeled Fulham for half an hour after the restart, still unable to break the damned breakthrough, cursed by poor finishing, good keeping, and strange decisions before the turning-point dismissal. It's hard to argue against cosmic balance when the universe refuses to proof otherwise; the closest comparison to Spearing's sending-off is Rodwell's in the derby – both harsh but given because the referee saw two feet with raised studs off the ground even though the ball was won and contact was minimal. And now Liverpool's without its lone back-up defensive midfielder for three games unless the FA demonstrates an unlikely act of charity. But it is the holiday season, after all.

Fulham's onslaught began soon after, despite Dalglish immediately making changes, bringing on Kuyt and Downing for Carroll and Bellamy, switching to a 4-1-3-1. Dempsey cannoned a curler off the bar with Reina stranded, while Dembele shot too close to the keeper and then wide. But Liverpool had chances of their own: the woodwork re-reared its awful head, with Downing's blast when surrounded by three pushed onto the post by Schwarzer, while Adam placed a left-footer just wide after Liverpool went behind. But a Fulham back-breaker always looked likely, and that it came from a Reina howler reinforces the notion that when everything goes wrong, absolutely everything goes wrong: he saved Murphy's shot after the midfielder cut in and around Johnson, but spilled it straight to the first-to-react American less than two yards out.

Now seems a good time to recount the other questionable incidents. Dempsey was lucky to stay on the pitch after a retaliatory head-butt on Bellamy in the 48th, as Friend weakly booked both. Adam could have won a penalty instead of a free kick when felled by Senderos on the break in the 59th, right on the edge of the area. Suarez won just three free kicks when he could have had 10; another referee's subscribed to the media's narrative of the Uruguayan's malicious cheating. The same player should have been ruled onside when cleverly "scoring" in the 66th, level with Hangeland. We passed the point of coincidence into the realm of suspiciousness. Not unlike when Liverpool lost this fixture in 2009-10, with Lee Mason handing out two dismissals in a 1-3 embarrassment.

But regardless of those multiple, infuriating moments, Liverpool didn't look anywhere close to comprehensively fluid and yet again, Liverpool couldn't get the necessary goal from anyone. I've defended Carroll, and will most likely do so in the future, but today was not a good argument for his inclusion. His movement was decent, he tracked back, held up play – all those little things you hope for which make the icing on the complete player cake. But there was no cake. There was no there there. He did not score and did not win his battle against the opposing center-back. The focal point of a 4-3-3 instead of dropping deep to link possession between long balls and Suarez (as in previous games) allowed Hangeland to do what he does best, a brute mix of trench and aerial warfare in the penalty box, with the added bonus of the tactics moving Suarez further from goal. That combined with Liverpool's patience in the early stages, letting Fulham get back, settle into position, and defend like Hodgson was still staring vacantly from the sidelines played into Fulham's strengths rather than exploiting weaknesses demonstrated in last season's 5-2 mauling.

Maxi's relegation to the bench will receive the most howls, understandably so, but there are multiple questions about the line-up and tactics: the decision to switch formation, the decision to push both Bellamy and Suarez surprisingly wide (the former more than the latter), not including Liverpool's best crosser when playing Carroll as a spearhead (and only subbing him on when taking Carroll off). All these questions demonstrate just how important Lucas is and how much had and has to be changed to cope with his long-term absence.

But at the same time, despite all those questions and concerns, once again, Liverpool could and should have won if not for poor finishing, the woodwork, and some controversial calls. Just like that, all the good feelings from Chelsea and City evaporate and we've regressed to post-Swansea/Norwich/Sunderland/Stoke hand-wringing.

Fun times. As if anything else should be expected.

Liverpool at Fulham 12.05.11

2011-12-03T10:48:00.000-05:00

3pm ET, live in the US on espn2. Yep, espn2 is actually airing a Monday game!

Last four head-to-head:
5-2 Liverpool (a) 05.09.11
1-0 Liverpool (h) 01.26.11
0-0 (h) 04.11.10
2-3 Fulham (a) 10.31.09

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-0 Chelsea (a); 1-1 City (a); 2-1 Chelsea (a)
Fulham: 0-1 Twente (a); 1-1 Arsenal (a); 0-0 Sunderland (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 4; Adam, Carroll 2; Bellamy, Gerrard, Henderson, Johnson, Maxi, Skrtel 1
Fulham: Dempsey, Johnson, Zamora 3; Dembele, Murphy, Ruiz 1

Referee: Kevin Friend

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Henderson Spearing Adam Downing
Carroll Suarez

They're all uneducated guesses until we see what Dalglish has in mind, but regardless of Lucas' undeniable importance, I don't expect Liverpool to change tack that much with the Brazilian out for the season.

Dalglish has clearly preferred the 4-2-2-2 this season and Carroll's started more often in away matches (West Brom, Everton, Arsenal, Stoke in the Carling Cup). Spearing as a like-for-like replacement for Lucas, in the first game after the injury and with Liverpool away from Anfield, will probably be the first fallback option. Henderson on the right instead of Kuyt, who's started the last two league games there, seems a likely half-measure used to add another body in the middle when Liverpool are without the ball given the ex-Sunderland midfielder's proclivity for coming inside.

Once again, it's difficult to argue Maxi shouldn't keep his place, scoring in both starts against Chelsea in nine days, but I think we'll see Downing back in the XI, replacing the Argentinean as he did against City, used to help stretch Fulham's defense and aim crosses into the box. Bellamy's another in a fine vein of form, and could start in place of Carroll. But Carroll been used far more away from Anfield, and played well aside from the missed penalty on Tuesday. There's also the more-important question of whether Bellamy's fit enough for two starts in fewer than seven days, something he's not done all season unless we're counting that moronic Rangers friendly. Given each's respective abilities, it's not out of the question to suggest Downing should play if Carroll plays, and Maxi should if Bellamy does.

Admittedly, there's something to be said for a 4-2-3-1 formation with Suarez up front and Maxi included, as that's how Liverpool ran roughshod at Craven Cottage last season. But as against City last weekend, I expect Dalglish to stick with this season's preferences rather than try to replicate one of last season's triumphs.

Martin Jol's tenure has begun in fits and starts, with Fulham currently 15th after finishing 8th last season under Hughes. There are signs of a team in there: one dominant 6-0 win over QPR, more-than-competent draws against Arsenal and City, and good form in the Europa League. But they've been all-too-often dismal as well: insipid in 0-2 losses at Stoke and Wolves, and 1-3 losses versus Everton and Tottenham.

Zamora was a handful when coming on in the second half in last May's meeting, causing Skrtel multiple problems and setting up Dembele's consolation. Dembele and Dempsey are both dangerous attackers, as is Bryan Ruiz if he starts on the right. Dempsey cutting in from the left can cause Johnson problems if his positioning isn't spot on. Only Damien Duff is unlikely to feature after re-injuring his calf against Twente; both Dembele and Dempsery – the other worries – should be fit.

When decent, Fulham are at least very hard to beat, with six of the 13 league matches finishing level, three at 0-0. Hangeland and Hughes – both run ragged by Suarez last May – are intelligent, strong defenders, while Schwarzer's prone to stop-stopping heroics. Which is slightly foreboding given how many scoring opportunities Liverpool have somehow failed to take, or how many opposition goalkeepers have had the game of the season against the side.

Lucas' absence may be an enormous setback for both club and player, but primary concerns still center on Liverpool finishing its chances and winning the matches they're supposed to win.

Liverpool Without Lucas

2011-12-01T11:21:00.000-05:00

Finally confirmed out for the season after a day filled with rumors, it's incredibly hard to forecast what Liverpool will do without Lucas. He's missed just three of Dalglish's 39 matches: rested for two, suspended for one. Since 2009, he's missed so few games that it's statistically irrelevant posting win-loss percentages with and without the player: he appeared in 34 of 38 league games in '10-11 and 35 of 38 in '09-10. Incidentally, he's never missed a Liverpool game through injury. Until now.

Considering the three missed under Dalglish, Exeter in the Carling Cup barely counts, so we're left with this season's 1-1 v Norwich and last season's 1-0 v Fulham. The former saw Liverpool stick with the primary 4-2-2-2 formation with Gerrard and Adam in midfield. With Liverpool's captain still out indefinitely, that's an unlikely template. The latter, early in Dalglish's reign, saw a 4-2-3-1 with Gerrard and Poulsen holding behind Meireles – also a poor template with both Meireles and Poulsen gone and Gerrard still injured. Liverpool impressed in neither.

There seem to be two options, at least until the January window when Liverpool will probably reinforce. One, stick with the 4-2-2-2 formation with Spearing or Henderson instead: the former more a like-for-like replacement, the latter probably adding more to the attack (which would require more defense out of Adam and, to be fair, he's been better in that regard lately). Or Liverpool could shift to a 4-2-3-1/4-2-1-3 as the primary formation, with both Spearing and Henderson included.

Either way, it's as big a loss as possible. Only Suarez and Reina are arguably more important to the side. I'm tempted to suggest that the three-man midfield is a better option, using a trio to try to cover Lucas' one-man band, but Dalglish has shown a distinct preference for the former formation this season. I expect Spearing will be given the nod in the 4-2-2-2 for Liverpool's trip to Fulham on Monday. Lucas' defense, his tackling and positioning, will be dearly missed, but Spearing's shown he can replicate that. It's the metronomic control over midfield, a calm head under pressure, settling and starting Liverpool's attacks, which will be the hardest to replace.

There are also a couple of more remote possibilities: Aurelio's covered in midfield before, while Liverpool could play three at the back, but neither seems incredibly likely.

Trying to sap the frightening emotion from this development, it'll be interesting to see how Liverpool cope. More often than not, Dalglish and Clarke have done excellently on the tactical front. This might be their biggest challenge yet. Yes, bigger than settling the ship last season, coping with the loss of the captain, or dealing with the exit of the former star striker. Interesting and terrifying.

Good luck, Lucas.

Liverpool 2-0 Chelsea

2011-11-29T17:50:00.000-05:00

Goals:
Maxi 58'
Kelly 63'

A diligent, comprehensive win sealed with two strikes within five minutes around the hour mark. After briefly basking in the afterglow of yet another away win and yet another victory over Chelsea, the result seems somewhat overshadowed by Lucas's frightening knee injury – the last thing the team needed from this poorly-scheduled fixture.

With wholesale changes for both sides – only Reina, Lucas, Enrique, and Henderson from those who started against City a little more than 48 hours ago – it's little surprise it took both teams time to come into the game. With Carroll and Bellamy up front, Lucas and Spearing in central midfield, and Henderson and Maxi on the flanks, Liverpool looked to take the sting out of the match, keep possession, and work the ball up the flanks for crosses towards Carroll. And it was little surprise to see a fairly tepid first half mainly devoid of chances for either club.

Chelsea's one notable opportunity was a penalty shout that wasn't in the opening minutes: Coates rashly diving in on Luiz (his lone misstep of the match), but the Brazilian going to ground early prompted Phil Dowd to show the Chelsea man yellow. Liverpool's one notable opportunity was a penalty, won because of Carroll and then wasted by Carroll. Holding up play for Bellamy, eventually ending with Enrique's cross, Carroll's aerial threat forced Alex to awkwardly handle while defending. Carroll stepped up, looking for that needed confidence boost, but blasted straight down the middle, easily saved by Turnbull. Of course he can't catch a break. It was Liverpool's third miss in four penalty attempts this season.

The second half was far more open, with both sides feeling the effects of the recent weekend matches, and Liverpool looked to play more direct football on the break. Liverpool had a couple of quick half-chances before Chelsea should have opened the scoring, somehow failing to prod the ball over the line after a righteous scramble following a 55th-minute free kick: Lampard's dead ball found Malouda at the back post, whose attempted volley hit the cross bar, fumbled half-clear by Coates, who then excellently blocked Luiz's follow-up on the goal line.

It didn't take long to punish the home side, helped by the half-time adjustment focusing more on quick counter attacks. Bellamy had spent the majority of the first half dropping deep onto the left, taking up positions Maxi normally takes up and not helped by Enrique having an off-game. But in the second, the Welshman moved to the right, and it was down that flank that Liverpool burst in the 58th. Henderson's throughball found Bellamy's clever run behind the defense, and Bellamy smartly centered for a Maxi tap-in – his tenth goal in his last nine starts.

With Chelsea reeling, Liverpool killed the tie five minutes later: Bellamy winning a free kick on the left holding up play well, then providing the assist to a free Martin Kelly, who cleverly lost his marker (Lukaku) to head in from point-blank range, his first senior goal for the club.

The game would have been completely done and dusted if not for Lucas' injury four minutes later. Colliding knees with a Chelsea player and left with a bloody gash, the midfielder attempted to play on, but had to be stretchered off soon after, leaving us all in a dreadful worry. Without Lucas' perpetual, wonderful holding in midfield and two goals to the good, Dalglish re-jigged the formation, replacing Lucas with Adam and bringing on Kuyt for Bellamy, shifting to an orthodox 4-5-1 with Adam, Henderson, and Spearing sealing the middle. Torres wasted a couple of headers, while Reina needed to play sweeper-keeper once more, coming out to deny Anelka an easy opportunity when put through on goal in the 75th, but otherwise, Liverpool safely saw out the match. More than a few Chelsea "supporters" left well before the 90th minute, summing up their hopes for an unlikely comeback. London traffic is notoriously difficult, after all.

Deserved winners, the better side for long stretches, it's difficult to pick a man of the match. Despite his first half struggles, it's hard to look past Bellamy's two assists, in what had to be a difficult match so soon after Sunday's tragedy. A clever, perfect run and assist for the first, winning and taking the free kick for the second. Kelly's first goal for the club is also special, especially since the defender kept the dangerous Bertrand and Malouda quiet for long stretches. Coates was also excellent after the early jitters, ably assisted by the returning Carragher (interestingly, Reina kept the armband). Lucas was Lucas prior to the injury, ostensibly trying to further destroy Torres' soul with every bone-crunching tackle; it goes without saying we should all be holding our breaths for good news on that front. Henderson and Spearing were solid in midfield; Maxi scores goals; and despite the penalty miss, Carroll's work-rate, tracking back, defending on set plays, and hold-up play were promising. The 2-0 victory was more than merited.

On to the semi-finals, to face City, Cardiff, or United/Palace over two legs. As Andrew Beasley pointed out on Twitter, Dalglish's three wins at Stamford Bridge over the last 10 months are more than Liverpool managed in the previous 21 years. Can we play you every week? More importantly, Liverpool maintains its unbeaten run, showing continual improvement in almost every area, with a record of seven wins and four draws since losing to Spurs in September.

Keep on keeping on.

Liverpool at Chelsea 11.29.11

2011-11-28T16:39:00.003-05:00

2:45pm ET, live in the US only on FoxSoccer.tv, so most of us will have to make do with streams again. There is a delayed showing on Fox Soccer Plus at 5pm ET.

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 11.20.11
1-0 Liverpool (a) 02.06.11
2-0 Liverpool (h) 11.07.10
0-2 Chelsea (h) 05.02.10

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 2-1 Stoke (a); 2-1 Brighton (a); 3-1 Exeter (a)
Chelsea: 2-1 Everton [aet] (a); 0-0 Fulham [4-3 pens] (h)

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 City (h); 2-1 Chelsea (a); 0-0 Swansea (h)
Chelsea: 3-0 Wolves (h); 1-2 Leverkusen (a); 1-2 Liverpool (h)

Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Suarez 7; Carroll 3; Adam, Bellamy, Maxi 2; Gerrard, Henderson, Johnson, Kuyt, Skrtel 1
Chelsea: Lampard, Sturridge 7; Mata, Ramires, Terry, Torres 4; Drogba, Kalou 2; Anelka, Boswinga, Ivanovic, Luiz, Malouda, Meireles 1

Referee: Phil Dowd

Dowd missed his weekend assignment due to illness, but should be available for tomorrow's match.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Carragher Coates Aurelio
Downing Lucas Spearing Maxi
Carroll Bellamy

Been awhile since Liverpool faced this lot, eh? More importantly, it's been awhile since Liverpool had a Carling Cup game at Anfield, forced to travel for all four fixtures this season.

Few starters from Sunday's match seem likely to play with just 48 hours of recovery time. I doubt Dalglish will throw the youth team to the lions, as was threatened when the fixture was announced, but Liverpool will assuredly make multiple changes, and we'll probably see a 'weaker' XI than in previous rounds of the competition. Which Liverpool has taken surprisingly seriously to this point. At least the next match isn't for six days, on Monday at Fulham.

Four players have started all three cup matches to date: Suarez, Maxi, Spearing, and Reina. Of those four, only Suarez seems doubtful, and that's solely down to the amount of games he's played. The only match he hasn't started was the second at Arsenal, way back in August.

Carragher and Coates look likely to renew the pairing which featured in the last two rounds, spelling the outstanding Skrtel and Agger. Either Kelly or Flanagan will replace Johnson on the right, while left-back is harder to forecast – Enrique hasn't played any of the cup games, but Robinson's injured and Aurelio's hasn't yet appeared this season. I doubt we'll see Agger at left back, as against Stoke, which was most likely a one-time occurrence to counter Stoke's height.

Despite his all-action performance on Sunday, Lucas might have to play due to a lack of options in midfield; I'd assume Adam needs the rest more than the Brazilian. Henderson is another possibility, but he also played 90 minutes against City. As said above, Maxi seems certain to take one of the two spots on the wing. Having started the last two league fixtures, Kuyt's unlikely; I expect the right flank to be manned by either Henderson or Downing playing as an inverted winger, as he often did for Villa.

And up top should be Carroll and Bellamy – the former returning to the XI after nearly notching the winner yesterday, the latter back after missing Sunday's match due to compassionate leave. Suarez could take the place of either, but could use the respite given the number of minutes he's played, held in reserve if needed off the bench.

As we'll probably see a weakened lineup from Chelsea as well, I expect Torres to start. Chelsea's other ex-Liverpool man is cup-tied due to his involvement in the win over Exeter, though. Terry got himself suspended with his fifth yellow of the season on Saturday, either to avoid humiliation at Liverpool's hands yet again or because he'd rather miss a Carling Cup match than a league fixture. I'm sure it's one conspiracy or another. The Blues have no injury concerns other than Essien's long-term knee problem.

Like Liverpool, Chelsea's used the cup to give time to their stronger reserves and talented youngsters: Luiz, Alex, Bertrand, Romeu, McEachran, Malouda, Lukaku, and Kalou featured in both fixtures. Both of Chelsea's Carling Cup matches have gone to extra time, winning the first on penalties when Bryan Ruiz missed for Fulham and winning the second when Sturridge scored in the 116th minute.

No matter the restrictions placed by the Football League, hamstrung by the vagaries of scheduling, Dalglish will continue to take this competition as seriously as possible. Only eight teams remain in the competition, and we can be certain that Liverpool will do its utmost to be one of the four left standing after this round.

A Day in the Life: Lucas v City

2011-11-28T08:52:00.001-05:00

There seems little point in doing a usual chalkboard review. I'd end up focusing on Lucas Leiva's marvelous performance, and you can just as easily head to the Guardian or Stats Zone app and see them for yourself. Each is a beautiful, unique snowflake worthy of admiration, and I recommend doing so.

I thought I'd display his statistics somewhat differently.

As usual, click to expand. Larger version available here. You can see similar in StatsZone's player dashboard, but not in its full chronological glory, which does the comprehensive, exhaustive performance more justice.

Lucas won more tackles and aerial duels than any other player (with zero unsuccessful in both categories), tied for the most completed passes with Barry and Toure, and tied for the most interceptions with Clichy and Kompany, while committing just one foul (in the 7th minute). He was head and shoulders the best player on the pitch; only Hart's brilliant saves get him in the discussion. I also can't help but mention that the Brazilian completed 11 straight passes in less than four minutes, from the 78th through the 81st – that very thick block of dark blue near the end of the chart. That's only four passes fewer than Agüero completed in his 82 minutes on the pitch.

Lucas put in work for 90 straight minutes, and it shows in his statistics, as well as the effusive praise he's getting from all corners of the internet. I'm admittedly prone to exaggeration when it comes to the player and have said it so much I fear it'll lose its meaning, but he's indescribably important to this Liverpool side, and would walk into almost any XI in the league. Few sides have so diligent a destroyer, and even fewer are as clever, disciplined, durable, and efficient. Or young, for that matter; it's incredibly easy to forget the midfielder's still just 24.

Long may it continue. And odds are that it will.

Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City

2011-11-27T13:51:00.002-05:00

Goals:
Kompany 31'
Lescott (og) 33'

I guess a second consecutive late winner against more-fancied opposition is asking too much. Still, if not for Joe Hart, we'd be reveling in one.

Today's match was far more in line with what I expected last week against Chelsea. Dalglish brought Henderson and Downing in for Maxi and Bellamy (who was understandably unavailable after the sad death of Gary Speed), and Liverpool did far less furious pressing. In a flexible 4-1-4-1 formation, Liverpool were more content to form two solids banks of five and four in defense, initially focused on preventing City from playing through the center – which was their aim with Agüero as lone striker and Nasri and Silva lurking dangerously between the lines.

For the first 30 minutes, City were the better side, maintaining possession as Liverpool prioritized defense. Despite that possession, chances were few and far between, limited to two half-hearted shots from distance and a 17th minute fright when Reina had to clean up Enrique's short back pass. But then the away side struck on a corner, with Kompany taking advantage of Kuyt's man-marking, also getting in front of Johnson. Still, the finish was slightly lucky, flicked in off the Belgian's shoulder into the far corner.

Instead of regressing, Liverpool regrouped, and were arguably the better side for the rest of the match. And Liverpool equalized in under two minutes, fortunate in their goal as well. As against Wolves, a more-than-speculative Adam shot from distance was haplessly turned into goal by an opposition central defender. The equalizer knocked City back, and only an excellent Hart save kept City level, somehow parrying out Adam's 37th-minute effort with his trailing leg, while Johnson curled a left-footer wide seconds later.

The second half was just as precariously balanced, and again, Joe Hart's the only reason there weren't more goals in the match. Liverpool were increasingly ascendant; Nasri curled a half-chance well wide and Enrique did well to put Clichy's dangerous cross behind, but otherwise, the home side were creating all the openings. And they were usually stopped by Joe Hart, both before and after Balotelli's hilarious cameo.

Kuyt headed a deflection off target in the 53rd, Hart pushed Downing's shot over in the 68th, City were lucky to see Lescott two failed clearances following Suarez's burst down the left bounce off Kuyt for a goal kick in the 74th, and Downing's shot-cum-cross blasted through the six-yard box untouched in the 78th. But Liverpool nearly doomed themselves again, with Reina necessarily leaving his box to clear Adam's short back pass.

Then Balotelli made the headlines, as Balotelli is wont to do. On in the 65th for Nasri, off in the 83rd after picking up a second yellow for a forearm smash on Skrtel. From there, it was Joe Hart versus the world, somehow preventing Suarez in the 87th after lovely interplay with Lucas, then amazingly clawing away Carroll's header in the third minute of injury time, also blocking Suarez's narrow rebound with his legs. Unbelievable, Jeff. Not to be completely overshadowed by his opposite number, Reina needed to be aware on the break minutes earlier, again playing sweeper-keeper when Dzeko broke down Liverpool's right, giving defenders time to get back and clear Silva's shot off the line.

A draw against the runaway league leaders, a side who beat second-place United by five goals on United's ground, now seems disappointing. No one's given City a tougher game in the league so far, but it's also yet another two points "dropped" at home, even if I'd wager a majority of Liverpool fans would have taken a draw before kickoff.

Despite Reina's sweeper heroics, it's hard to look past Lucas for Liverpool's man of the match. The team's spoilt for choices – Agger and Skrtel were both as excellent as against Chelsea; Adam turned in another disciplined, clever performance; Downing looked far more of a threat; and Enrique and Johnson got forward well despite City's strength – but once again, the Brazilian's beyond essential to this side. He was absolutely everywhere, constantly mopping up where City's usually at it's most dangerous. It's little coincidence Silva had least influential match of the season. 69 of 75 passes completed (92%), including 18 of 19 in the attacking third. Six interceptions, 7/7 on tackles, and 4/4 on aerial duels, while committing just one foul. He was a crucial outlet time and time again, steadying the side when trying to play out from the back, and nearly got Liverpool the winner with his bursting run leading to Suarez's chance in the 87th. I cannot do him justice with either superlatives or statistics. We're at the point where he has few peers in the Premiership, and he's still just 24 years old.

No English side has made City look remotely ordinary, but Liverpool did. While disappointment with the result is understandable, especially with more points dropped at Anfield, there's little to be disappointed with in the performance. Players continues to settle, while Liverpool continues to look more a coherent team, continues to improve, and continues to impress against the best the Premier League has to offer.

Liverpool v Manchester City 11.27.11

2011-11-25T09:08:00.000-05:00

11am ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (h) 04.11.11
0-3 City (a) 08.23.10
0-0 (a) 02.21.10
2-2 (h) 11.21.09

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Chelsea (a); 0-0 Swansea (h); 2-0 West Brom (a)
City: 1-2 Napoli (a); 3-1 Newcastle (h); 3-2 QPR (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 4; Adam, Carroll 2; Bellamy, Gerrard, Henderson, Johnson, Maxi, Skrtel 1
City: Agüero, Dzeko 10; Balotelli 6; Silva 4; Johnson 3; Milner 2; Barry, Kolarov, Kompany, Nasri, Richards, Savic, Y Toure 1

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Lucas Adam
Kuyt Henderson Maxi
Suarez

Still basking in the afterglow of last Sunday's victory, it's ever so tempting to suggest Liverpool should play the exact same line-up as against Chelsea. But City don't play a high-line defense, and while unable to keep a clean sheet in the last five league matches, aren't especially lacking in confidence or prone to mistakes. Not to mention City are in far better form than Liverpool's last opponents.

We can't really look at previous league matches for a template against the leaders, who are unbeaten through this season's 12 games. Averaging 3.5 goals per league game, City have scored at least twice in every Premiership fixture so far. But City's two losses in Europe, as well as their lone draw in the Premier League against Fulham, could provide some sort of road map.

Both Bayern and Napoli soaked up early City pressure and demolished their opponents on the counter. Munich's 4-2-3-1 survived two early penalty claims before Gomez's quick strikes before halftime: the first on a fast break, set up by Ribery and Müller, the second scavenging on a set play. Napoli, in a 3-4-3 formation, did similar on Tuesday: Suarez's international strike partner Cavani opened the scoring on a set play, then canceled out Balotelli's equalizer on a counter-attack soon after the restart, converting Dossena's clever cross after Napoli sped down City's right. As many pointed out after the match, City had more than 70% of the possession – on the road, in Europe. Not that it mattered. With Napoli ahead and a three-man defense becoming a five-man defense, the visitors had little clue what to do with that possession.

Fulham's point was slightly more fortunate, although it's churlish to call it a fluke. But City went to sleep after going two up, arguably drained by their first Champions League encounter the week before, and Zamora's bullying muscle and a fortunate deflection brought the Cottagers back into the game. Like happens to many sides, some of City's shakiest moments have come after Europe: that draw at Fulham and the fright QPR gave them at the beginning of the month. But the 6-1 win at United, as well as a 4-0 win at Blackburn, followed Champions League fixtures.

So, how can Liverpool replicate any of these successes?

I thought Dalglish would shift to his usual 'big game' strategy last week, especially with the match at Stamford Bridge. But Liverpool stuck with the 4-4-2, albeit a different type of 4-4-2. Liverpool still looked for the counter, but instead of soaking up pressure, they pressed from the front in the first half, reverting to type in the second when a goal to the good. Once bitten, twice shy, but I still think a three-man midfield is likely on Sunday, and like in the last match preview, would point to Henderson's box to box runs as crucial. Of course, to counter my own "logic," Henderson's been more influential off the bench in recent matches against United and Chelsea.

A three-man defense, like Napoli's was, isn't completely out of the question after Liverpool's wins over Stoke and Chelsea last season, but it seems a remote possibility; the last time we saw the tactic was in March, in the 1-3 loss at West Ham. Liverpool played some sort of 4-4-2 in both matches against City last season, first under Hodgson, then under Dalglish. One was a success, one wasn't. No prizes for guessing which was which. Incidentally, City played 4-3-3 in their home win and 4-2-3-1 at Anfield, with Liverpool aided by Tevez's early injury in the latter. Hazarding a guess, I'd wager Tevez isn't going to feature this weekend. The away side are obviously spoilt for riches; Nasri, Agüero, and Barry – left out against Napoli – seem likely to feature, while it'd be surprising to see both Balotelli and Milner start three matches in eight days.

Liverpool fans' focus will be on the inclusion of last Sunday's surprise starters: Maxi and Bellamy. Based on two Carling Cup appearances and last week at Chelsea, Maxi's simply in better form than Downing, always threatening to seamlessly combine with Suarez. At the same time, it's hard to leave Bellamy out, undoubtedly champing at the bit to punish his previous club. The other personnel question is one presented last week: will Carragher come back in at the expense of Skrtel or Agger?

If Liverpool stick with two strikers, Bellamy will probably play at the expense of the star man in last season's fixture at Anfield. Divining the entrails of Dalglish's press conferences is always dangerous, but it's not hard to sense a veiled shot at Carroll in this quote:

"You take into account what is happening now," Dalglish said. "Just because he scored twice last season doesn't mean he's going to score this time. We will all start afresh, Andy included."

Of course, knowing Dalglish's precedents, it could all be dissemination and "mind games." That's part of the fun of these guessing games. Early pressing, as against Chelsea last week, combined with crosses for Carroll, then sitting back and soaking up pressure in the second half, was what led to Liverpool's win against these lot last season. The similarity to those aforementioned Bayern and Napoli victories over City seems unavoidable.

Chelsea Chalkboards - Half by Half

2011-11-22T09:50:00.001-05:00

You don't need chalkboards to tell you that Liverpool changed tact in the second half against Chelsea, unable or unwilling to keep pressing in the same furious manner as the first. This isn't revelatory information, and I tried to explain why in the match review: pressing for 90 minutes was an impossibility due to fitness and personnel, so Liverpool went all out for the early goal, then tried to soak up pressure and hit Chelsea on the counter in the later stages. Despite conceding early in the second half, it worked a treat due to Johnson's bursting run and Chelsea's less than diligent defending, which I wrote about yesterday.

Nonetheless, it's interesting to compare the differences in a few passing charts and defensive chalkboards.

In the second half, there were fewer passes attempted by almost every Liverpool player, more Chelsea passes in Liverpool's half, tackles and interceptions came closer to Liverpool's goal, etc., etc. How few passes the center-backs attempted in the second half was the only major surprise, as it's quite noticeable despite Liverpool being under Chelsea pressure for long stretches. I'll also note than neither center-back "emptied it" regularly; while both Skrtel and Agger attempted far fewer passes, they're still short passes, attempting to build from the back. And Reina's passes and Liverpool's total attempted clearances (neither shown) stayed fairly similar from first to second half.

Goal Breakdown: Suicidal Defending and Taking Advantage

2011-11-21T09:43:00.002-05:00

Both of Liverpool's goals against Chelsea were fantastic, strikes which have an excellent chance of showing up on various best-of-season lists. The first showed the benefits of pressing from the front and quick pass and move football, the second direct football at its finest: a cross-field diagonal opening up acres of space for an attacking full-back bombing forward.

But make no mistake. Despite each goal's outstanding qualities, both came because of some suicidal decision-making from Chelsea's defense.

Cech's decision to send the goal kick to Mikel (an illegally-taken goal kick, having touched it twice, I might add...) baffles in the extreme. Four Liverpool players are closer to Mikel than any in blue. Both Terry and Luiz have gone wide, each to the left and right of the penalty box, which has to be by design. Mikel's lone option in that position is to empty it as far as humanly possible, and when he dawdles in making that decision, Adam's on him in a flash.

With Mikel out of the picture after Adam's tackle, it left Chelsea with two defending four, and Bellamy, Suarez, and Maxi's quick passing and movement rendered them irrelevant. Terry was beaten by Suarez's touch back to Bellamy, Luiz by Bellamy's extra pass to Maxi, leaving the Argentinean open to smartly finish past Cech.

The second, in the final minutes of the game, was little better from the home side's point of view.

With the ball held up on the left flank – Enrique, Downing, and Suarez successfully keeping possession after bringing the ball out from defense – Adam's pinpoint cross-field caught multiple players out of position.

Chelsea have eight defenders in their own half. Eight. Pity they're all bunched up on the wrong side of the pitch after Adam's diagonal. Terry and Luiz's positioning (circled) is exceptionally unforgivable: both far forward, both basically atop each other. Why Terry, ostensibly the left-sided center-back, is in that position is almost completely unexplainable.

Malouda and Cole are the only two defenders on the left side of the pitch in Chelsea's half, and both are closer to the center circle than the touchline. When Malouda can't get back, a retreating Ashley Cole's left one-on-one with a rampaging Johnson, who still has work to do to beat the Chelsea full-back, which he does brilliantly by shifting onto his left foot, nutmegging Cole in the process. Kuyt's run into the box keeps both Luiz and Terry occupied, leaving England's Brave Captain unable to clear off the line after he decides to stick closer to the already-marked Kuyt instead of bailing out Cole and Malouda.

Liverpool needed smart, sublime plays from its attackers in both cases: excellent pressing from a central midfielder and divine interplay between three of the front four in the first case; Adam's pass and Johnson's run in the second. And Dalglish's tactical chess – first half pressing, second half counter-attack – provided the platform for Liverpool to get both goals. But both were infinitely aided by Chelsea's defensive decisions: a strange clear-out leaving Mikel isolated on the first; positional indiscipline (especially in drifting toward the ball) as well as Luiz and Terry's indecision on the second.

The media's quick to draw knifes, as we've seen unfairly happen to Dalglish following Liverpool's multiple disappointing draws. But after conceding in this fashion, it's little wonder that those knifes are out for Villas-Boas this morning.

Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea

2011-11-20T13:49:00.001-05:00

Goals:
Maxi 33'
Sturridge 55'
Johnson 87'

Another big game, another tactical master-class from Dalglish.

Instead of reacting to Chelsea, keeping it tight in the hopes of breaking through on the break, just like last year's trip to the Bridge, we saw a completely unexpected line-up and Barcelona-esque heavy, high pressing in the first half. Liverpool ostensibly stuck with the 4-2-2-2 formation, but it was a completely different 4-2-2-2: Bellamy partnered Suarez up front and Maxi got his first league start, replacing Downing on the left.

Liverpool's front six gave no quarter in Chelsea's half, furiously chasing any player in blue in possession. Chelsea's vulnerability was known to all, and Liverpool refused to let them settle and grow in confidence. The style led to an exhilarating, furious half, and Chelsea apparently opened the scoring, but on second viewing, Drogba's free kick against the run of play was thankfully, narrowly wide.

But Bellamy and Maxi provided the break-through, and Charlie Adam was the platform, just as essential to everything good. It was as disciplined and intelligent a performance as we've seen from him. Instead of his usual center-circle quarterback role, the midfield harried forward, far better in tackling and closing down. He nearly diced Chelsea open in the 18th, winning possession and providing a quick through-ball for Suarez, only for the Uruguayan to be unforgivably offside.

But just over ten minutes later, Adam won the ball 30 yards out, after Mikel lingered on a goal kick, setting up a Bellamy-Suarez-Bellamy-Maxi concerto, with the extra short, quick pass crucial to the goal. While less threatening after the opener, Liverpool continued to deny space in the slightest, with Chelsea relying on set plays for any sight of goal.

That all changed in the second half. Liverpool were never going to be able to keep up that pressure for 90 minutes. The unexpected starters were the main reason Liverpool took the lead, but neither can keep up that pace for the full match, which is the main reason why neither's a regular starter. Nor can Adam. Liverpool were far more passive in the second half, more like what was predicted in the run-in: defending deep and reliant on the counter, more concerned with the clean sheet than extending the lead. Understandably so.

But it was Villas-Boas' tactical response which brought Chelsea back into the game. Removing holding midfielder Mikel (on a yellow) for striker Sturridge allowed Chelsea to switch to a 4-2-3-1 formation; forwards pushed wider, challenging Liverpool's fullbacks, while Mata was far more influential in the middle.

With Liverpool penned in its own half, the substitute leveled matters ten minutes after the restart. Malouda cut inside and deep with Johnson dropping off, and Adam couldn't get back in time to close down. His decision to shoot was selfish and stupid but somehow paid off as Enrique went to sleep, allowing Sturridge in behind for a point blank tap in at the far post. That Malouda's shot fell so perfectly seems another dismal stroke of luck, but once again, the blow was partially of Liverpool's making, a mistake quickly punished.

Newly-confident Chelsea continued to hammer at the away side; only Reina prevented the second, somehow saving Ivanovic's flicked header from a free kick. But Dalglish's response in the 64th, replacing the tiring Bellamy with Henderson, solidified the midfield and helped stem the tide. Malouda's 70th minute acrobatics, carving space between Skrtel and Johnson, was the last non-speculative effort from the Blues and was off target anyway, like all their shots following Liverpool's first substitution.

The home side targeted Liverpool's right throughout, putting more and more pressure on Johnson with Kuyt also showing signs of fatigue. If a goal was coming, it looked like coming from Glen Johnson's part of the pitch. And it did, but not as pessimists like me were expecting. Enrique, Suarez, and Downing kept possession on the left before Adam's brilliant deep cross-field ball found Johnson in acres of space with defenders sucked inside. The right-back successfully ran at Ashley Cole, dancing past onto his left before Malouda could get back, then tucking his shot perfectly inside the far corner. So that's why Johnson's preferred at right-back then. Neither of Chelsea's former Liverpool players – both left on the bench, only sent on in the last 10 minutes – could find the winner, it was Liverpool's ex-Chelsea man. Have that, media narrative.

Given the heavy first-half pressure – which led to Liverpool's opener – it was always going to be a frightening second with Chelsea in the ascendancy. It was a calculated gamble on the part of Dalglish, and although Liverpool were punished thanks to a mis-hit shot, it paid off when coupled with Henderson substitution. Today

Aside from those moments of defensive terror, usually on the wings, everyone was excellent; it's nearly impossible to pick a man of the match. It was Maxi's eighth goal in his last five league starts, it was easily Adam's best game. Lucas was Lucas, utterly essential in shielding the center-backs. Neither Skrtel nor Agger put a foot wrong, and Reina again demonstrated a save that few in the league could replicate. The cheap and easy way out of the conundrum is to name Dalglish as the star, once again disproving notions of rigidity or that the game's somehow passed him by.

Another memorable match against top-level opposition, the type of away victory that's been few and far between for too long. Of course, Liverpool's performances against the Premier League's best has been one of the side smallest concerns under this manager. And it's not as if Chelsea's in a vein of hot form, losing consecutive matches at Stamford Bridge for the first time since Uncle Roman began losing rubles. But a win like this, with form like this, after the last disappointment two weeks ago, needs to be cherished, treasured, and basked in.

And then Liverpool needs to replicate its big-game heroics against the unstoppable City in a week's time.

Liverpool at Chelsea 11.20.11

2011-11-18T08:38:00.004-05:00

11am ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
1-0 Liverpool (a) 02.06.11
2-0 Liverpool (h) 11.07.10
0-2 Chelsea (h) 05.02.10
0-2 Chelsea (a) 10.04.09

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-0 Swansea (h); 2-0 West Brom (a); 2-1 Stoke (a)
Chelsea: 1-0 Blackburn (a); 1-1 Genk (a); 3-5 Arsenal (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 4; Adam, Carroll 2; Bellamy, Gerrard, Henderson, Skrtel 1
Chelsea: Lampard 6; Sturridge 4; Ramires, Terry 3; Mata, Torres 2; Anelka, Boswinga, Drogba, Malouda 1

Referee: ~~Martin Atkinson~~ Lee Probert

~~Evidently the Premier League wasn't that upset with Atkinson sending off Rodwell last month or he wouldn't have gotten another Liverpool game so soon.~~ Incidentally, Howard Webb is the fourth official.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Agger Enrique
Lucas Adam
Kuyt Henderson Downing
Suarez

No more internationals until the spring. Enough speculating about Suarez's possible sins. Football. Finally. Back to the football.

For once, an international break was kind to Liverpool in regards to injuries, with everyone coming back fit. In addition, the two-week break means Carragher's fit and Gerrard, while still out, is well on the road to recovery. Of course, Carra's recovery poses a question: does he slot straight back into the back four after Liverpool kept consecutive clean sheets with the Skrtel-Agger pairing? Almost assuredly yes, yes he will, like it or not. It's a big game, away from Anfield, and Liverpool's defense will probably be sitting quite deep.

In addition, many of Liverpool players impressed for their countries. Suarez scored four in his one appearance for Uruguay. Kelly tallied twice in the two England u21 games while Henderson, who captained the side, provided three assists (two from set plays). Agger scored for the Danes, Downing was England's best player in the win over Sweden (setting up the lone goal), and Kuyt was Holland's best player in a 0-3 loss to Germany. Needless to say, it's far more important they do similar (or better!) for Liverpool.

While the most-frequently used lopsided 4-2-2-2 has come under a lot of criticism, mainly for Liverpool's multiple disappointing draws, the side has lined up in a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 for the "big" games: at Arsenal, at Spurs, and against United. I expect we'll see much the same on Sunday. There seems little chance of repeating last season's three-man defense.

Given Villas-Boas' preference for a high-line, high pressing 4-3-3, I think Liverpool's formation will look most like the side which faced Arsenal but with Suarez in for Carroll. Suarez's pace could pierce Chelsea's rearguard as Van Persie did multiple times when Arsenal traveled to the Bridge, and that vulnerable defense might also be an argument for Bellamy starting in place of Downing. We've criticized the side for being too reactive, but away from Anfield, Chelsea will have far more of the initiative. Liverpool will be "defensive," will have to be patient, and will rely far more on counter-attacks. And as both Chelsea full-backs (especially if Boswinga starts over Ivanovic ) look to get forward at every opportunity, Liverpool will need to play quick and direct, and use any available width. With Gerrard absent, Henderson's forward runs from midfield could be crucial, which is a main reason why I think he'll be playing between the lines.

Chelsea have few injuries as well, with Essien out long-term and Drogba doubtful. Villas-Boas will pick three from four in midfield – Lampard, Ramires, Meireles, and Mikel – and will probably deploy Sturridge and Mata on either side of Torres. Regardless of participants, it'll be a very fluid front six, which means Liverpool defenders will have to be both clever and perpetually aware of who to pick up, not necessarily limited to who lines up opposite them at the opening whistle.

With Liverpool having done the double over Chelsea last season, the Blues will have even more motivation than usual. Of course, both Liverpool's goal-scorers in those meetings now ply their trade in West London. Chelsea are three points ahead of Liverpool after 11 games. As a reminder, Chelsea were 10 points ahead of Liverpool at this stage last season, top of the table while Liverpool sat in 9th, 24 goals better on goal difference rather than the current five.

With the end of internationals for the next few months, matches will start stacking up. There'll be no more two-week layoffs following a disappointing draw. After this week, Liverpool will have faced all its competitors for a Champions League place (sorry Newcastle) at least once, with three of five away from Anfield. It's more than tempting to agree with the Anfield Wrap's conclusion that the season starts on Sunday. Chelsea's growing pains give Liverpool a clear opening, but it's not as if the Reds are free from similar issues.

Good Against Good, Bad Against Bad

2011-11-14T10:11:00.000-05:00

With Liverpool facing Chelsea in a week's time, I thought it interesting to look at the club's recent record against the best and worst of the Premier League. Long story short, Liverpool have a habit of playing up or down to the opposition's level under Dalglish.

Against top-five opponents:

• 1-0 Chelsea (a)
• 3-1 United (h)
• 3-0 City (h)
• 1-1 Arsenal (a)
• 0-2 Tottenham (h)
• 2-0 Arsenal (a)
• 0-4 Tottenham (a)
• 1-1 United (h)

Overall record: 4W-2D-2L
Points per game: 1.75

That points per game average is in line with Liverpool's overall record under Dalglish. The club's taken 52 points from the last 29 league matches, for an average of 1.79 points per game.

Comparatively, Liverpool's record against promoted or relegated sides under Dalglish:

• 1-2 Blackpool (a)
• 1-3 West Ham (a)
• 1-2 West Brom (a)
• 5-0 Birmingham (h)
• 3-0 Newcastle (h)
• 1-1 Norwich (h)
• 0-0 Swansea (h)

Overall record: 2W-2D-3L
Points per game: 1.14

Last season, Liverpool's record against relegated or promoted sides was contingent upon location: winning handily against Birmingham and Newcastle at Anfield but losing to Blackpool, West Ham, and West Brom on the road – continuing the despicable away form from the Hodgson era. This season, Liverpool's faced two promoted sides at Anfield and suffered disappointing draws in both, an obvious regression in results if not in form, mainly down to the much-discussed inability to convert chances.

The venue has been less important against the "big five;" in 2010-11, Liverpool beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and drew Arsenal at the Emirates, while losing to Spurs at Anfield. This season, Liverpool beat Arsenal in London, were hammered at Tottenham after Adam was sent off, and drew United at Anfield.

Unsurprisingly, playing to the opposition's level didn't occur as often under Hodgson. As happened time and time again, Liverpool did "okay" at home and were atrocious away, no matter the opposition. Hodgson's Liverpool beat Chelsea and drew Arsenal at Anfield, and lost to City, United, and Spurs away, for a grand total of four points from five games. Against relegated or promoted opposition, Liverpool beat West Brom and West Ham at Anfield, and held Birmingham and lost to Newcastle away; Blackpool's October victory at Anfield was the only match which didn't hold to the usual trends under Hodgson. Except the trend of being infuriatingly, hopelessly awful.

With two trips to Chelsea bracketed by a home match against high-flying Manchester City, we'll soon see if Liverpool continues playing to the opposition's level. Not to over-exaggerate, but with the season nearly a third over, these next three results could define the next six months, seeing Liverpool either catch up to the front runners or pushed further back into the chasing pack.

Charlie Adam Creates Chances

2011-11-10T09:30:00.002-05:00

One of the summer's main talking points was "chances created," a fairly new statistic meant to replace assists. Assists take two to tango, reliant on the goal scorer actually scoring the goal. LiverpoolFC.tv clarifies the stat by renaming it "shot assists," a name I actually prefer, although I'll stick with Opta's nomenclature since I'm using FourFourTwo's StatsZone stats throughout this piece. The official site also has slightly different numbers than StatsZone, crediting Adam with two fewer shot assists than StatsZone credits chances created.

After the summer signings, Liverpool fans couldn't wait to pass around a chart showing Adam, Downing, and Henderson in the Top 10 for chances created in the league last year. Anfield Index featured multiple articles on the stat. Given how Liverpool struggled for goals last season, most notably under Hodgson, adding players who set up goal-scoring opportunities seemed crucial.

Well, Liverpool are creating more chances. They're simply not taking them. And Charlie Adam tops the list of those creating said chances.

After 11 games, Adam's created 26 chances, more than any other in the Liverpool squad. Suarez and Enrique on 20, Downing with 17, and Lucas with 10 are the only other players in double figures. Adam played 35 games last season; currently averaging 2.36 chances created per game, Adam's on pace for 83 chances created this season if he plays the same number of matches. Which is 19 more than his total for Blackpool last season. And with Downing, Suarez, Henderson and (sometimes) Gerrard involved, he's not taking every set play either.

Adam created eight against Swansea, five more than the next closest player (Downing) and the most in any Liverpool match this season. Four came from set plays and four came from open play. There were chips and crosses to Suarez, corners to Agger, and layoffs and throughballs to Downing. Probability more than suggests at least one should have led to an assist and Liverpool winner.

In total, Liverpool have created 137 chances through this season's 11 matches. The side created 121 in Hodgson's first 11 matches and 120 in Dalglish's first 11 matches as "caretaker manager." Liverpool scored 12 goals in Hodgson's first 11 games, 18 in Dalglish's first 11 games, and 14 through this season's 11 games. This season's chances created-per-goal ratio (9.79) is far closer to Hodgson's mark (10.08) than that from Dalglish's first 11 matches (6.67). Again, creation isn't the problem. Conversion is.

Admittedly, Adam has multiple faults. Fitness is usually the first mentioned: how he tends to tire after the hour mark, with skepticism exacerbated by his less-than-ideal physique. He tends towards the spectacular and over-ambitious when Liverpool might be better served by keeping it simple. He's also more than questionable defensively: in positions he takes up, in his frequently rash tackling, in his recovery speed. And, yes, he's seemingly better in a three-man midfield, which Liverpool rarely uses.

All players have faults; it's balancing the good against the bad. As long as the positives outweigh the negatives in the manager's mind.

We can argue whether Liverpool would be better in a different formation, with support from two other "orthodox" central midfielders rather than the 4-2-2-2/4-3-3 half measure that has Henderson often coming inside. Or whether Spearing's a better partner for Lucas in the formation Liverpool's using. Those are questions for management. However hesitant I am (and you should be) to criticize Dalglish's evolutionary team after less than a third of the campaign gone, they're valid debates.

But the main reason Liverpool bought Adam from Blackpool was to create chances. And Charlie Adam creates chances.

Speed Kills

2011-11-07T10:38:00.003-05:00

Against Swansea, Liverpool started on top, couldn't take advantage of the early dominance, and finished with a draw. Against Norwich, Liverpool started on top, couldn't take advantage of the early dominance, and finished with a draw. Against Stoke, Liverpool started on top, couldn't take advantage of the early dominance, and lost. Against Sunderland, Liverpool started on top, couldn't take advantage of the early dominance, and finished with a draw.

Against West Brom, Liverpool started on top, got the early goal, and saw out the win. Against Wolves, Liverpool started on top, got the early goal, and saw out the win. Against Bolton, Liverpool started on top, got the early goal, and saw out the win.

Sensing a trend?

Each half hour is successively worse, whether in successful passes, attempted passes, passing percentage, or types of passes. The first 30 minutes sees more short passes, more sustained build-up, and many more completions in Swansea's half. The second 30 minutes sees longer passes, quicker build-up from defense out to the flanks, and far less activity in front of Swansea's penalty area. The final 30 minutes continues the regression, with a much more scattered chalkboard and almost 60 fewer passes than in the first half an hour. The passing percentage went from 83.5% from 1-30' to 80.7% from 31-60 to 76.5% from 61-90'.

And 'chances created,' that ubiquitous, quasi-abstract stat, follows the same trend. Liverpool created 15 chances against Swansea, fewer than against West Brom, Norwich, Stoke, and Bolton, but more than in better performances against United, Everton, Wolves, and Arsenal. Almost half of those chances came in the first 30 minutes.

The best chances were those in the first 30 minutes. Carroll's thwack off the crossbar most notably, but Agger's attempts from Adam's corners, Lucas' free header hitting Suarez, and Suarez's shot saved by a sprawling Vorm were also close calls. Comparatively, the second half saw a smattering of blocked shots and Vorm's two late late saves, the one on Johnson's effort more impressive than that on Suarez's.

Unsurprisingly, given how closely the statistics are related, the number of Liverpool shots parallels chances created. 11 in the first 30 minutes (one on target, seven off, three blocked), five between 31-60' (two on target, two off, one blocked), and nine in the final half an hour (two on target, three off, four blocked). That the amount blocked came mostly in the final half hour shows both Liverpool's desperation and Swansea's deep defense, happy to close down the box and settle for the draw.

We're only 11 games into the campaign, but banging the same worn drum is already tiresome in the extreme. Liverpool needs to take its chances when it's on top, and it's almost always on top in the first half.

Patience surely plays a part as well. Liverpool have scored second-half goals in just four of its 11 league matches: against Bolton, United, Everton, and Arsenal. They won three of the four. Two of those four came against 10 men, finally breaking down a resilient, defensive side, both away from Anfield. Which were two of Liverpool's best performances of the season. But those are the exceptions rather than the rule in this short season so far.

We've seen complaints about the formation, complaints about using new signings at the expense of last season's pleasant surprises, and complaints about the defense. All three pale in comparison to Liverpool's attackers – from the sublime Suarez to the disappointing Downing and in-between – not doing their jobs. Having kept a clean sheet in the last two games, the defense (and Lucas) has done its job. Having created eight chances on Saturday (four from set plays and four from open play) – five more than any other player and the most in any LFC match this season – Adam's doing his job. Reina certainly did his job against Swansea, the biggest reason Liverpool left with at least a solitary point. Liverpool certainly weren't anywhere near their best against Swansea, in almost every area of the pitch, but still had the chances to win the game.

Many have understandable doubts about this lopsided quasi 4-4-2 Dalglish prefers, including yours truly, but had Liverpool taken just a few of these frequently-mentioned chances, we'd be joyous, complimenting this strange hybrid formation as after West Brom. And Liverpool would be somewhere in the region of six to nine points better.

But when the first half onslaught fails, the team obviously tightens up, especially in front of its baying home crowd – as against Swansea, Norwich, and Sunderland. Confidence crashes, frustration mounts, and every player becomes noticeably more nervous. Which leads to more ambitious passes, less completed passes, and all the other 'bad' shown in the above chalkboards. And it's tangible for the opposition, leading to fight-backs like Swansea's, like Sunderland's, like Norwich's, and like Wolves almost succeeded in doing.

Take just one more scoring opportunity per game, and Liverpool's not in this situation, and the sky stops falling. It's become a boring mantra. Confidence and converting chances. Confidence and converting chances. Confidence and converting chances. Shantih shantih shantih.

Liverpool 0-0 Swansea

2011-11-05T14:13:00.000-04:00

Remember how multiple home draws against inferior opposition ruined the '08-09 title chase? That was fun. Let's do that again.

Out of all four of Liverpool's disappointing home draws – and I include United in that – Swansea are most deserving of the point they leave Anfield with. Rodgers' tactics were excellent, soaking up Liverpool pressure for 60 minutes before pummeling the home side for 10, then settling back into their deep, resilient defense. Still, they relied on two excellent saves from Vorm on the cusp of injury time, the first he'd had to make since the 29th minute. And it all could have been different had Carroll converted his close range chance in the 7th minute instead of hitting the woodwork. Yes, yes, the 10th time Liverpool's tattooed the goal frame in this short season.

Liverpool were rarely able to stretch Swansea, to pull at least one of those eight or nine defenders out of position, to create the havoc which led to goals like Suarez's first at Stoke. Swansea defended deeper than any side that's visited Anfield, deeper than Hodgson's dismal group sat last week, squeezing every ounce of space from the final third. That Carroll opportunity was one of the few times Liverpool passed and moved their way through the Swans, with a speedy Downing-Adam one-two down the left leading to the winger's dangerous center.

Once again, we're left ruing chances left unseized. The home side took 15 first-half shots, but only hit the target twice; nine were blocked, four were off-target. Also, approximately three of those efforts were remotely memorable: Carroll's chance and two singularly created by Suarez – a turn and shot wide in the 19th and a Vorm save in the 29th after the Uruguayan danced onto his left foot. And those three came in the first 30 minutes.

After that half an hour, Swansea were more comfortable, able to keep possession and spurred on by their 28th minute opening, when Routledge's cross to Graham would have given them the lead if not for Reina's point-blank brilliance. Comfortable on the ball, when Swansea sprang from their own half, they sprang dangerously, leading to a surprisingly open game despite the away side's packed defense. Dyer and Routledge gave Liverpool more problems than any other wingers this season; their speed restrained both Johnson and Enrique far more than expected in a home game against promoted opposition. But that Graham's chance was the only heart-in-mouth moment for Liverpool's defense in the first half.

Recognizing Liverpool's lack of width, Dalglish replaced Henderson with Kuyt during the interval, his work-rate and movement preferred to Bellamy's pace. And Liverpool momentarily threatened, with an unconscious through-ball from Adam releasing Downing, but with the winger unable to replicate his earlier cross to Carroll.

That was Liverpool's last chance until an eventual flurry in the final ten minutes. After suffocating the home side for ten minutes, Swansea counter-punched as the home side's frustration turned to out-and-out nervousness. Swansea passed and prodded and passed and struck, Liverpool flustered almost immediately the few times they managed to reclaim possession, and Reina threatened to morph from hero to goat. He again saved Liverpool when rushing out to block Dyer's 64th-minute shot, but almost gave away a goal twice. Nearly turning into Graham after lingering on a back pass sparked Swansea's burst in the 58th, then he nearly spilled Dyer's long range strike to the same player in the 65th, thankfully recovering quickly.

Gower's 84th-minute blast over, free on the spot following Sinclair's knockdown of Dyer's cross, marked the end of Swansea's threat as the away side finally tired. Bellamy coming on for Carroll with 15 to play certainly helped matters, and Liverpool spent the final few minutes frantically pushing for the needed winner. Suarez, quiet for long stretches, was typically central, nearly carving openings for Kuyt and from the byline. Vorm's sprawling save on the Uruguayan's outside-of-the-right-foot cannon in the 89th was the first of two jaw-dropping stops to seal Swansea's 'triumph', mimicking those acrobatics on Johnson's desperation thunderbolt a minute later.

Once again, Liverpool's flaws are laid bare, obvious to all. Chances missed, dominance unconverted. Not to mention the unbelievably frustrating inconceivable woodwork spawned by Satan. That Liverpool continues to hit the frame is beyond implausible, improbable, and impossible. Otherwise, Swansea swallowed Liverpool whole. Nullifying Liverpool's full-backs seems most important, denying the overlap also shut down both wingers. Henderson simply ran into defenders when cutting inside, where he found space against West Brom and Stoke, while Downing continues to struggle (although admittedly again unlucky to not register at least an assist).

But that Suarez didn't cause his usual anarchy, wasn't able to arrogantly toss as many bombs into Swansea's defense, was probably just as damaging. He was shadowed by at least two, sometimes three players at all times, a symptom of their smothering defense. Liverpool remains dangerously reliant on its little genius.

11 games into the season, already November, and regretting somewhere in the region of 10 points that have somehow slipped away makes it harder to deliver the usual rationalizations. Yes, this team is still maturing and unusually prone to set-backs. At least Liverpool didn't carelessly concede, which has happened all too infrequently – and they had multiple opportunities to do so. And, while obviously disappointed, we were treated to an eminently watchable, open game – probably even enjoyable for neutrals – a far cry from the dour, turgid, defensive side seen 12 months ago. Can't throw the baby out with the bathwater, at least there's obvious potential, etc. etc.

Just, you know, start putting the ball in the back of the net please.

Liverpool v Swansea 11.05.11

2011-11-04T09:40:00.002-04:00

11am ET, not live in the US. Delayed on Fox Soccer Plus at 3pm ET. It's FoxSoccer.tv or streams.

Last four head-to-head:
8-0 Liverpool (h; FA Cup) 01.09.90
0-0 (a; FA Cup) 01.06.90
3-0 Liverpool (h) 04.09.83
3-0 Liverpool (a) 09.18.82

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-0 West Brom (a); 2-1 Stoke (a); 1-1 Norwich (h)
Swansea: 3-1 Bolton (h); 2-2 Wolves (a); 1-3 Norwich (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 4; Adam, Carroll 2; Bellamy, Gerrard, Henderson, Skrtel 1
Swansea: Graham 4; Sinclair 3; Allen 2; Dyer, Lita, Williams 1

Referee: Phil Dowd

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Henderson Lucas Adam Downing
Carroll Suarez

Same as against West Brom, please.

At home, Liverpool are likely to stick with the 4-2-2-2 (or 4-3-3 or 2-3-2-3 or whatever) we saw against West Brom. Carroll and Suarez will remain the front pairing, with Lucas and Adam in midfield as Gerrard's still injured, and Johnson and Enrique providing width and overlaps from full-back.

There seem only a couple of possible changes. Downing hasn't had the best of spells recently, struggling for form and influence, summed up by his barely-defended cannon off the foot of the post in injury time on Saturday. Bellamy could be a straight swap, with Maxi and Kuyt as less likely options. Kuyt could also reclaim his place from Henderson, although the young Englishman did well against both Stoke and West Brom.

And there's the elephant in the room: whether Carragher will be fit, immediately restored to the starting XI, or whether we'll get to see Skrtel and Agger for a second-straight match. There were two interesting relevant pieces on Liverpool's defense this week: Dan Kennett analyzed Liverpool's record with different center-back pairings over at The Tomkins Times and Noel from Liverpool Offside wondered whether Liverpool's deep defensive line will remain constant no matter Carragher's inclusion or exclusion. Both are recommended reading.

Like Blackpool last season, Swansea have become the new neutral's favorite by combining aesthetically-pleasing football with a heavy underdog status. I doubt I'll have to remind how much Liverpool suffered against the likes of Blackpool last season, losing both fixtures under both Hodgson and Dalglish. Swansea can be exposed, caught out on the counter attack because of their preference for going forward. But Liverpool can also be exposed, as Sunderland, Stoke, Spurs, United, and Norwich have proven.

Swansea have loads of quick, deft players who can cause a static backline problems: striker Danny Graham, wingers Sinclair and Dyer, and Joe Allen in midfield. Graham's scored in Swansea's the last four matches. That Sinclair and Dyer can get down the flanks and whip in crosses should have both Johnson and Enrique very wary. Stephen Dobbie is the lone injury concern now that Kemy Agustien is fit, but Agustein's unlikely to start with Allen, Gower, and Britton in fine form.

For all the deserved compliments for how Swansea have come up, dancing with what brought them to Premiership, the Swans have truly struggled away from the Liberty Stadium. Still winless on their travels, their lone away point came against Wolves two weeks ago. The natural disclaimer is that their other away matches came on fairly difficult grounds: against City, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Norwich.

Liverpool can't fall into the trap of expecting a promoted side to lie down at Anfield, which seemed to be the case against Norwich two weeks back. Increasingly frustrated and impatient when the second goal wasn't coming, Norwich made Liverpool pay, stealing off in the night with an undeserved point after Holt headed Carragher, Johnson, Reina, and the ball into the net.

Patience will be crucial tomorrow. Swansea's possession football means Liverpool will look to be direct more often than not, carving Swansea open on the counter rather than pummeling them into submission. Which will require Liverpool's nullifying defense to be as secure as against West Brom, using the clean sheet as the platform to get the needed victory. City's win over Swansea in the first match of season provides the template: after cagily holding out for an hour, with David matching Goliath step for step, City finally put Swansea to the sword, scoring four in the last half-hour as the away side tired.

Patience, then the sword. And, as often repeated, the utter necessity of converting one's chances.

Trying to Find a Balance

2011-10-31T10:01:00.000-04:00

"Balance" has been a word tossed around frequently as Liverpool tries to fine-tune its recently-acquired shape. Balance between attack and defense, balance between controlling the game and pushing the tempo, balance between direct football and pass and move football.

On Saturday, Glen Johnson started at right back for only the second time this season, for the first time with summer signing Jordan Henderson ahead of him on the right.

Liverpool have deployed a somewhat lopsided formation every time Henderson's started on the right, deeper than his counterpart on the opposite flank. Saturday's difference was that with Johnson, Liverpool were able to balance Henderson's proclivity to cut inside with an attack-focused fullback willing to stay wide and overlap.

Downing and Enrique, who have had a few more games to build an understanding, form a more orthodox pairing. Downing, a true winger, spends far more time in the opposition half, further forward, than Henderson. Enrique, therefore, spends more time coming inside, especially when in Liverpool's half, whether starting the attack or doubling up on an attacker with Downing less likely to track back than Henderson.

What's still best described as a 4-2-2-2 – two strikers, two central midfielders, and two "wide" players – easily becomes a lopsided 4-3-3 with how Henderson and Downing play their roles.

It's interesting to see Downing's average position so far forward, while Henderson's as much a part of a midfield three as a right-midfielder, especially given Adam's ability to pull wide to the left for deep crosses and diagonals. And at the same time, Lucas's holding position seems deeper than usual, almost like Busquets in front of Barcelona's center-backs, protecting the back line and ready to pull wide to cover where needed.

Simply by looking at the average position diagram, you could classify the formation as 2-3-2-3: Skrtel and Agger deepest, the full-backs and Lucas, Henderson and Adam linking defense and attack, and Downing, Carroll, Suarez up front. It's almost replicating the historic W-W formation from the 1930s. Which, incidentally, Jonathan Wilson wrote about in regards to Barcelona almost exactly a year ago. Not to compare an evolutionary, maturing Liverpool to Barca or team which won consecutive World Cups or anything.

With West Brom supremely lacking in ambition and with Thomas and Brunt on the wings – neither the trickiest opponent – both Johnson and Enrique were relatively untroubled in defense. The fullbacks attempted four tackles combined, three successful, through 90 minutes.

Against routine opposition, we got to see the Liverpool of the future, what Dalglish is seemingly building towards: a fluid, adaptable formation. If direct football, with long passes, runs at defenders and deep crosses, isn't working down the left, Johnson and Henderson make it possible for slower buildup with overlaps from the full-back on the right. Admittedly, most opponents will put up more of a struggle, will make Liverpool work far harder in both halves, and will put both Henderson and Downing under far more pressure, requiring each to contribute more in defense.

But against mid-table opposition and lower, both home and away, this is seemingly the template to be followed. Saturday's match against West Brom, with Johnson back and with Henderson having his best game so far for Liverpool, was the first conclusive demonstration that it could actually work.

Liverpool 2-0 West Brom

2011-10-29T15:39:00.001-04:00

Goals:
Adam 9' (pen)
Carroll 45+1'

A thorough, comfortable win, never in doubt after notching a second on the stroke of halftime, a clean sheet easily kept away from Anfield.

Had Liverpool scored so early in their last league match, converting just one of the chances from their fast start, we could have seen a similar result. Typically, Suarez was the vital epicenter, teeing up Adam's 2nd-minute opportunity before winning the 7th-minute spot kick somewhat fortuitously. The penalty itself – Thomas barging a spinning Suarez near the edge of the area – wasn't so fortuitous; we've all seen similar shoulder challenges both ignored and given. What was fortuitous was that the linesman correctly feverishly flagged, forcing a reticent Lee Mason to award the foul. In contrast to the pervasive, malignant narrative, Suarez wasn't looking for it, neither rolling around nor gesturing wildly. Adam, Liverpool's third different penalty-taker of 2011-12, notched the first of the season by sending Foster the wrong way.

Liverpool remained on top, clearly stronger, but weren't creating the chances spurned in the last match, which isn't necessarily surprising when away and up against a Hodgson side at home. Other than Suarez's one clear-cut opening, ballooned over when leaning back for Skrtel's center from a corner, the best opportunities of the half until Carroll's crucial second came on subsequent penalty shouts that Mason didn't call: a clear handball on Carroll's on-goal header from Suarez's early cross and a rugby tackle on a corner that somehow became a foul on Carroll.

But right before the interval, after "suffering" a spell of West Brom pressure, Liverpool got that crucial second at arguably the best possible time. Lucas nipped in to steal possession and immediately found Suarez at full sprint, and the Uruguayan deftly hit his long pass first-time into space for Carroll to run onto. The big striker's first touch looked to take it away from him, but he quickly regrouped to smartly toe-poke under the despairing Foster with his stronger foot. A back-breaking goal, giving West Brom 15 minutes to wonder how they were going to come back from a two-goal deficit when they had less than 40% of the possession and zero shots on goal.

The lone surprise after the restart was that Liverpool failed to widen the gap during another impressive spell to begin the half. Suarez and Carroll continued to combine brilliantly, the best we've seen from the pairing, but neither Henderson nor Carroll could smartly connect with shots after West Brom's defense had been sliced open, while Suarez chipped onto the roof of the net after brilliantly creating space for himself and Olsson importantly blocked Suarez's blast after good work from Enrique and Carroll.

The final 25 minutes, with both Liverpool and West Brom on cruise control in opposite directions, saw sporadic opportunities for Liverpool – Carroll shots saved and wide, Downing's 90th minute effort off the post – with even fewer for West Brom. Bellamy, replacing the irrepressible Suarez with ten to play, was Liverpool's lone substitution as the team hummed along unthreatened.

West Brom weren't especially terrible, simply unambitious. It's somewhat distasteful to return to the scene of the crime to further beat the same dead horse into submission, but Liverpool fans will remember more than a few analogous performances during Hodgson's tenure. Admittedly, most came on the road – at Everton and City the closest comparisons – but West Brom similarly conceded an early goal, similarly 'battled back' to almost but not quite make a game of it, but then conceded the second and never looked like coming back.

There's little to complain about after such an assiduous victory. Most pleasing was how well Suarez and Carroll harmonized. Neither had their best game – although Carroll wasn't far off his City apex while Suarez remains singularly important – but it was the best they've looked together by some distance. Lucas also again demonstrated his importance; Liverpool controlled play, set the tempo, and protected the back-line far better than against Norwich. And with Carragher still sidelined by Wednesday's calf injury, we finally got to see Skrtel and Agger in the league. And weren't disappointed. They, along with the full-backs, barely put a foot wrong. Incidentally, all three of Liverpool's clean sheets – against Arsenal, Everton, and West Brom – have come away from Anfield. This was the first without the opposition reduced to ten men.

As against Stoke, another win and further progress. An excellent team display with few disappointing individual performances. A clean sheet victory away from Anfield should never be downplayed, no matter the opposition. That Liverpool were so comfortable, and that it's such guilty schadenfreude to win so convincingly when facing the previous manager, can't overshadow the team continuing to coalesce and impress.

Liverpool at West Brom 10.29.11

2011-10-28T11:42:00.000-04:00

12:30pm ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
1-2 West Brom (a) 04.02.11
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.29.10
2-0 Liverpool (a) 05.17.09
3-0 Liverpool (h) 11.08.08

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Stoke (a); 1-1 Norwich (h); 1-1 United (h)
West Brom: 2-1 Villa (a); 2-0 Wolves (h); 2-2 Sunderland (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 4; Adam, Bellamy, Carroll, Gerrard, Henderson, Skrtel 1
West Brom: Long 3; Odemwingie 2; Brunt, Morrison, Olsson, Scharner 1

Referee: Lee Mason

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Agger Enrique
Henderson Gerrard Lucas Downing
Carroll Suarez

How much of Wednesday's line-up will Liverpool replicate? And have you heard that Roy Hodgson manages West Brom?

There are doubts over both Carragher and Suarez, the former going off at half-time against Stoke with a calf injury, the latter picking up a first-half knock and limping off with five minutes to play. Both have fairly readymade replacements: Skrtel (or, less likely, Coates) for Carragher and Bellamy (or, less likely, Kuyt) for Suarez. Not that anyone can truly replace Suarez or anything, who admittedly looks as if he could use a rest. Still, given how both are ever-presents if remotely fit, chances are they'll start.

With Gerrard, Adam, and Lucas all available, and after Spearing's excellent game against Stoke, Dalglish has a few choices to make in midfield. It's somewhat unfair on Spearing, but the other three are higher up the depth chart, and one of them will probably miss out as well if Dalglish continues with the 4-2-2-2. Adam has started every league match so far, but both Gerrard and Lucas are in better form and more important to Liverpool's fortunes. With all the permutations available, Liverpool still haven't used Gerrard and Lucas in a two-man pairing since beating United 3-1 in March, mainly thanks to the captain's long-standing injury. If Suarez doesn't play, there also a chance Liverpool will line up similarly to that against United, a 4-3-3/4-5-1 with all three involved.

After an inauspicious start for Uncle Roy, winning just one of the first five games, scoring three goals through the first six, West Brom are unbeaten in four, coming off wins over Wolves and Villa. That last win was on the road and after going down 1-0, both exceptionally unfamiliar for a Hodgson-led side. It's seen the Baggies rise up the table to 12th. Which is admittedly more familiar. Still, just four points behind Liverpool and only four worse on goal difference.

West Brom's main injury concern is to starting striker and record signing Shane Long, out for six weeks after chipping a bone in his knee. Somen Tchoyi or Simon Cox will partner Odemwingie if Hodgson sticks with his preferred 4-4-2. If Cox starts, it could be the same front six as featured against Liverpool in April: Reid, Scharner, Mulumbu, and Thomas remain West Brom's first-choice midfield. And I barely need mention that Hodgson's sides are always, always, always better at home and that Liverpool are still recovering from the effects of his away day tactics, both of which were evident when the two sides met in April.

Liverpool are quietly unbeaten in six, with more focus on the goal-shy disappointments of Norwich and United rather than recent positives. Which is an apt demonstration of Liverpool's potential and promise; we should be disappointed Liverpool aren't higher up the league table. It's a sign that the we're all – fans, players, staff – getting over the traumas of the last two seasons. Expectations are rightfully high.

Of course, that might all change if West Brom manages to pull one over on Liverpool for the second-straight meeting.

Goal Breakdown: Suarez 1-1 Stoke

2011-10-27T12:26:00.001-04:00

Nothing, absolutely nothing, can take away from the sheer, singular brilliance of Suarez's swirling strike, but I wanted to highlight the contributions of those involved in the build-up, specifically three off-the-ball runs and two cross-field passes. Mostly to ensure they don't get lost in the utter majesty of the finish.

In case it isn't clear, in the above chart solid lines represent passes, the black dashed line is Agger striding forward in possession, and the red dashed lines are the player's movement off the ball following their pass.

Henderson, ostensibly the right-sided midfielder, comes inside to start the attack after Liverpool successfully defended a Stoke free kick (it was Lucas who won possession). After correctly spreading play to the full-back, Henderson follows Agger's run instead of retreating to the right flank. And having followed Agger's run, he's perfectly placed to draw Robert Huth (who's initially marking Suarez) away from the Uruguayan with a sprint to the byline, leaving Suarez one-on-one with the unfortunate right winger Shotton.

Meanwhile, Agger's continued going forward after setting up Maxi, getting into the box despite being a center-back pushed out to the left, but smartly retreating when the early cross didn't come. And at the same time, Maxi joined him in the penalty area after quickly passing onto Kelly, occupying the right-sided center-back Shawcross to ensure he didn't double up on or close down Liverpool's eventual scorer.

And we can't sell two brilliant cross-field balls short of credit. Maxi's to Kelly, shifting play from left to right, opened up the space for Henderson, Agger, and Suarez's runs. Spearing's from deep was pinpoint to Suarez drifting out wide, deftly weighted and easily controlled.

This goal, regardless of the necessarily wondrous finishing touch, is the epitome of both pass and move football and a fluid formation where numbered notation and starting position mean next to nothing.

When done correctly, it creates unwanted chaos for the opposition, requiring defenders to leave their planned marker, not necessarily sure who to pick up. The quick passing between Maxi, Kelly, and Spearing – two of three long in the air – ensures the defense has to chase, unable to settle into the preferred default shape. Henderson, Agger, and Maxi were comfortable enough to leave their required roles, demonstrating some of the intuitive attack we've been hoping for, seen so often in last season's big wins. The problem is that is not easy to build that intuitive understanding, especially with a fair amount of new signings over the summer. This goal is an apt demonstration of Liverpool's undeniable potential, in both creation and finish.

More of that please. And more heart-stopping, jaw-dropping, different class finishes from Suarez wouldn't be too bad either.

Liverpool Offside has video of the goal if you'd like to relive it in a more visual manner.

Liverpool 2-1 Stoke

2011-10-26T17:39:00.000-04:00

Goals:
Jones 43'
Suarez 54' 85'

For 53 minutes, it was last month at Stoke and last weekend at Norwich all over again. The same overriding, unavoidable, all-consuming narrative: Liverpool couldn't take their chances while the opposition managed to tally from far fewer, usually from a defensive mistake. In the 54th minute, the overriding, unavoidable, all-consuming Luis Suarez changed the narrative. And after 90 minutes, Liverpool are into the quarterfinals of the Carling Cup, having finally overhauled a deficit under Dalglish, scoring a much-missed late winner in the process.

Today's frustrating display was slightly less aesthetically pleasing than Saturday's cruel, unfulfilled domination. With Carroll back in the starting XI and Lucas and Spearing in midfield, Liverpool were far more direct, far happier to look for the early ball to one of the two strikers, either to be held up by the target-man or run onto by the speedy dribbler. Liverpool still had the chances to miss the chances – Suarez kneed a rebound from Carroll's strike wide; Lucas, Agger, Maxi, and Suarez diced Stoke open but Sorensen made the close-range save; Carroll spurned a couple of opportunities – but not in as dramatic a fashion as against Norwich.

And then came the requited stomach punch. There was always an air of vulnerability when Stoke came forward, more so than in Liverpool's last two frustrations, mostly due to Jones and Walters' physicality up front and Etherington's crossing ability. Coates mostly coped well, paired with Carragher in the first half and Skrtel in the second, using his height to nullify Jones. But in the 43th minute, Liverpool were again punished for a solitary mistake: Coates let a long clearance bounce near the touchline, expecting a throw-in. Walters muscled his way in and, with Agger caught upfield, charged down the flank, cutting back for Jones (who had peeled away from Carragher) to deftly head into the far corner. The story of the season.

A goalless streak of such horrendous, implausible proportion was always going to need a wonder strike to dispel the curse. Suarez' indescribably perfect blast was just such a strike, guaranteed to top the end-of-season goal lists. Killing a cross-field pass with one touch, he feinted, nutmegged Shotton, and curled an outlandish shot into the far corner. A beautiful, beautiful goal incongruent with the mainly disheveled contest.

The picturesque goal did little to change the course of the game. At 1-1, Liverpool were marginally on top – with a couple of half-chances to Stoke's none – but the home side continued to threaten simply by being Stoke. Both teams seemed if not content with extra-time at least aware it was the most likely possibility. Carragher replaced Sktrel during the interval, but Liverpool's first attacking substitution came with just over ten minutes to play. Bellamy replaced Maxi and created Liverpool's best chance since the goal, but scuffed Carroll's layoff onto the post.

A minute later, Liverpool were ahead, again thanks to Luis Suarez. Less miraculous than the first but oh so much more important, Suarez was in the right place at the right time to receive Henderson's clever first-time ball over the top, heading past Sorensen at the back post.

After seeing out the inevitable quasi-pressure in injury time, it's Liverpool's first win from a losing position under Dalglish – the first since beating Bolton on New Year's Day. It's Liverpool first domestic late winner since the same match, with the lone under Dalglish against Sparta in the Europa League.

Suarez will obviously get the headlines, as is his wont and rightfully so. But the majority of the side turned in decent if not jaw-dropping performances. Workmanlike rather than wondrous. Other than his costly misstep, Coates was impressive, negating Stoke's much-discussed strengths. Liverpool looked much more secure with the Uruguayan partnering Skrtel. Agger did surprisingly well at left-back; put into the lineup to help combat Stoke's aerial threat, the defender's also known for his talent with the ball at his feet. Both Spearing and Lucas were tidy and efficient in midfield, although the pairing seemed to exacerbate the long-ball tendency. Carroll put in a shift as well: dropping deep, tracking back, and showing a few hoped-for combinations with his strike partner, if still lacking in confidence in the box. It's churlish to mention that Liverpool still don't look like scoring if it's not coming from Suarez.

The result should be a massive boost, showing the fortitude to finally shed multiple monkeys of their back: getting the needed goal and then getting the second, a late win and a comeback, into the next round and avenging last month's disappointing defeat. It should go without saying, but saying the obvious is a hobby. Now Liverpool need to build on those multiple steps forward. Which is easier said than done.

West Brom on Saturday. I'm sure we'll hear something about their manager's history with Liverpool between now and then.

Liverpool at Stoke 10.26.11

2011-10-25T10:58:00.002-04:00

2:45pm ET, live in the US on FoxSoccer.tv. Most of us will have to make do with streams. There is a delayed showing on Fox Soccer Plus at 5:00pm ET.

Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Stoke (a) 09.10.11
2-0 Liverpool (h) 02.02.11
0-2 Stoke (a) 11.13.10
1-1 (a) 01.16.10

Previous round(s):
Liverpool: 2-1 Brighton (a); 3-1 Exeter (a)
Stoke: 0-0 Spurs [7-6 pens] (h)

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Norwich (h); 1-1 United (h); 2-0 Everton (a)
Stoke: 1-3 Arsenal (a); 3-0 Maccabi Tel-Aviv (h); 2-0 Fulham (h)

Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Suarez 5; Bellamy, Carroll 2; Adam, Gerrard, Henderson, Kuyt, Maxi, Skrtel 1
Stoke: Jones, Walters 4; Crouch, Shotton 3; Jerome 2; Delap, Pugh, Upson, Whelan 1

Referee: Peter Walton

You may remember Mr. Walton from Saturday's match. Odd that he has two Liverpool fixtures in a row.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Aurelio
Henderson Lucas Spearing Maxi
Suarez Carroll

A third consecutive Carling Cup tie away from Anfield. The luck of the draw, eh?

In keeping with what we've seen in the last two rounds, I'd imagine a slightly-weaker than usual side: stronger than under previous managers in this competition, but with a handful of second-string veterans and/or youngsters. It'll be similar to the line-up which started at Rangers a week ago.

As Carragher's missed just one match this season – in the 2nd round against Exeter – I'm hopeful we'll see a different center-back pairing. Either Skrtel and Agger, the potential first-choice pairing in the near future, or Coates and Agger, the potential first-choice pairing in the long-term. More specifically, I'd like to see if either of these duos will play higher up the pitch, limiting the space between midfield and defense. Tomorrow could also be another step towards full fitness for Johnson if he escaped Saturday unscathed, with similar true for Aurelio, who's hardly featured this season.

Lucas should return from suspension, partnered with Spearing or Adam (with Gerrard rested after starting against United and Norwich). Maxi's lone starts have been in the two previous rounds of the competition, while Henderson's also due a place in the XI, whether in central midfield or ostensibly on the right. A Lucas/Henderson midfield, with two of Maxi, Downing, and Kuyt on the flanks is also a distinct possibility.

Finally, up front, Carroll seems nailed on to start. His partner, if Liverpool continue with the 4-2-2-2 base formation, is less certain. Bellamy seems the most unlikely, having played an hour in each of Liverpool's two matches this week. Kuyt's been unimpressive in his last few starts. And Suarez's troubles in front of goal have been much-discussed; tomorrow could be an opportunity to avenge misses against Norwich et al (as well as the last meeting between these sides) or an opportunity to give Liverpool's magician some much-needed time off. Especially with Suarez's good friend Peter Walton as referee again.

Stoke used a mostly full-strength side in the last round of the competition, beating Spurs on penalties after 120 minutes of 0-0. The Potters also have five days before their next match, on Monday compared to Liverpool's Saturday trip to West Brom. Liverpool are more than acquainted with Pulis' strangling, burly set-up. Two wingers, at least one (probably two) physical strikers (from Crouch, Walters, Jones, and Jerome), and the likes of Huth, Upson, Woodgate, et al in defense. Pennant, a familiar threat from the flanks, is the lone injury concern.

Tomorrow's primary narrative is revenge: a chance for Liverpool to make amends for dropping three points to this team at this venue a month ago. It's also a real chance at a trophy for the first time in six seasons, with only 16 teams left in the competition. There are 11 Premiership sides remaining, but the majority are playing each other in this round (except United, obviously); at most, there will be just six from the top-tier left after Wednesday.

Vengeance is fun, but success is obviously more meaningful. And this side could do with some success.

Image of the Day

2011-10-24T09:13:00.000-04:00

Nine games. 39 shots: 17 on target, 16 off target, six blocked. Four goals. That's an awful lot of shots without much return. Which seems to be the story of Liverpool's season so far.

This isn't to criticize Suarez. More often than not, especially against Norwich, he's looked the only one capable of magic, capable of somehow hauling Liverpool to three points. On Saturday, he created chances from absolutely nothing at least twice, somehow turning away from defenders in a phone booth-worth of a space, only to hit the frame or see Ruddy make yet another unexpected save. He is undoubtedly Liverpool's best and most important player, no matter Lucas' essential holding, no matter Gerrard's talismanic capacity, etc. Nonetheless, his 11 shots against Norwich – six on target, four off, one blocked – are the most without scoring for a single player in a Premier League game since Ronaldo did similar almost five years ago.

Yesterday, Dan Kennett wrote an outstanding look at Liverpool's chance conversion, game-by-game and compared to opponents and rivals. Needless to say, it's not pretty.

Sometimes it's worthwhile to dissect matches with chalkboards, tactics, and pseudo-scientific divination. Sometimes over-analyzing really is over-analyzing. Take chances, take the points.

The overall shots statistics for all Liverpool players through these nine games follows.

Liverpool 1-1 Norwich

2011-10-22T15:29:00.000-04:00

Goals:
Bellamy 45+1'
Holt 60'

Like watching a replay of the season opener against Sunderland.

At Anfield? Check. Failure to convert multiple first half chances? Check. First-half goal? Check. Early second-half equalizer? Check. Increasingly frustrated and increasingly impatient? Check. Some dubious but not game-changing decisions from the referee? Check. And for added spice, Liverpool had two jaw-dropping chances deep into injury time: one just wide, one miraculously saved. Just what we needed. Salt in the wounds.

29 shots, nine on target, with efforts off the crossbar and both posts. That Liverpool continues to spurn brilliant chances seems unbelievable. It's no exaggeration that the home side should have been three up and out of sight by the 15-minute mark. Skrtel crashed Adam's corner off the bar within 120 seconds, Suarez somehow turned past two only to shoot into the side-netting three minutes later, and Ruddy pulled off his first outstanding stop on a Suarez effort in the 11th, pushing the Uruguayan's blast onto the post.

Unsuccessful in front of a baying Kop, frustration quickly mounted, and Norwich responded with a spell of pressure, testing Reina from distance and on corners. After regaining momentum following ten nervous minutes, Liverpool seemingly pushed too hard in trying to replicate the fast start and make the breakthrough, losing possession in the final third, caught offside too often, and generally wasteful when anywhere near the 18-yard box.

That is, until Bellamy finally, fortunately found the net with the last kick of the half, running onto a ball over the top aimed for a fouled Suarez, his shot deflecting in off Tierney's heel. In theory, with that curse lifted, Liverpool should have gone to seal the win. In practice, Liverpool came out in familiar form, starved of chances save Suarez creating something from nothing yet again, turning one defender, fooling a second into going to ground, and nearly poking past Ruddy, only to see his shot deflect off Martin off the post. Again.

And then came the predictable Norwich stomach punch, due to Lambert's smart substitution. For once, there's not one scapegoat for the opposition's equalizer: Adam lost possession seeking a soft free kick, Enrique gave Pilkington space to check the wind before angling in a cross for Holt, who beat both Carragher and Johnson in the air as Reina charged out only to flap.

Dalglish's response saw Henderson replace Bellamy in the 69th and Carroll replace Downing ten minutes later. Despite the change in system, Liverpool remained reliant on Suarez until the injury time flurry; the closest he came was in the 78th, shooting wide after his buzzing movement saw Norwich's excellent center-back Barnett slip. With hope dashed yet again, Liverpool nearly got the late winner that's so often eluded the side. In the 93rd, Carroll powered Gerrard's deep cross just wide. In the 95th, Ruddy again came to the rescue, somehow palming Suarez's sweet volley over. The Uruguayan took 11 of Liverpool's 29 shots – six on target, four off, one blocked – and drew zero free kicks. One of the Canaries would have had to sever a limb before Walton whistled, the result of the now-pervasive media narrative and his own checkered antics.

That Liverpool have taken two points from matches against Norwich, Stoke, and Sunderland – two of three at Anfield, matches where they set both tone and tempo, matches where they created countless chances spoiled by both keeper and woodwork – borders on unforgivable, no matter the novelty of the side and the vagaries of luck.

Suarez remains Liverpool's lone menace; while he's a bomb-throwing handful, he also can't buy a goal for love, luck, or money. Little came from his strike partner Kuyt, who often dropped into the hole to link play with both Gerrard and Adam sitting deep. Without a third midfielder, a runner like Henderson or holder like Lucas, the duo replicated each other's abilities and mainly got in each other's way. A less than auspicious debut for the partnership in a 4-2-2-2. At the same time, little came from Liverpool's inverted "wingers." Bellamy's general hassle created the goal, but he clearly tired. Which, I'll churlishly mention, might not have been the case had he not played an hour on Tuesday. Downing was wasteful in shooting but did well crossing with either foot on either flank, completing five of nine. Unfortunately, that was with Suarez as target-man. With Carroll on the bench for 80 minutes, Liverpool actually attempted 37 crosses in total, 12 successful, which is 11 more than in any other fixture. Second-most? At Stoke. Surprise!

Besides the comparison to this season's opening fixture, I'd like to draw one other parallel. Holt's introduction in the 56th reminded of Zamora's second-half entrance in Liverpool's 5-2 win over Fulham last April: a burly striker who held up play, rumbled with Skrtel and Carra, and nearly brought his side back into the game, setting up Dembele and unsettling Liverpool until Maxi's wonder strike resealed the match. The difference is that Liverpool weren't three goals to the good today, unable to take advantage of its house-on-fire start. And there was no wonder strike to reseal the match.

I'm not saying that all of Liverpool's problems stem from the inability to convert chances. I am saying it certainly couldn't hurt.

Liverpool v Norwich 10.22.11

2011-10-21T08:55:00.000-04:00

12:30pm ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
2-1 Liverpool (a) 01.03.05
3-0 Liverpool (h) 09.25.04
2-1 Liverpool (a) 04.29.95
4-0 Liverpool (h) 01.02.95

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 United (h); 2-0 Everton (a); 2-1 Wolves (h)
Norwich: 3-1 Swansea (h); 0-2 United (a); 2-1 Sunderland (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 4; Adam, Carroll, Gerrard, Henderson, Skrtel 1
Norwich: Pilkington 3; Barnett, de Laet, Holt, Hoolahan, Johnson, R Martin, Morison 1

Referee: Peter Walton

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Carragher Agger Enrique
Henderson Gerrard Adam Downing
Carroll Suarez

There will be a temptation to ring changes against "weaker opposition" at Anfield and with a trip to Stoke on Wednesday, in a competition Dalglish seems to be taking very seriously. I hope that isn't the case.

With Lucas suspended, it looks as if Liverpool will start both Gerrard and Adam in central midfield. That pairing is frightfully defense-free, and if Liverpool line up in the 4-2-2-2, I'd expect Henderson on the right to offer some extra support. Henderson hasn't been a defensive stalwart on when on the right by any means, but his inclination to come inside would add a bit more security to a potentially very open midfield.

And I do expect Liverpool to revert to the 4-2-2-2. That Carroll "played" 90 mostly harmless minutes in Tuesday's friendly shouldn't preclude him from returning to the starting XI, with Liverpool reverting to the two-striker set-up we saw against Wolves and Everton. If the side keeps the same 4-5-1/4-2-3-1 formation as against United, we'll see Suarez up top, Kuyt and Downing on the flanks, and some combination of Gerrard, Adam, and Henderson (or possibly Spearing) in central midfield.

This week's (deservedly) much-maligned friendly was at least a boon for Liverpool's defense in allowing pitch time for the returning Agger and Johnson. Agger looked fitter than Johnson against Rangers, playing 78 minutes compared to Johnson's 64. Johnson, recovering from a hamstring injury, needs to be protected more than Agger, who suffered a rib injury. At the same time, Kelly's looked a more-than-able deputy, while Skrtel still has to propensity to frighten at times. But as much as I appreciate Liverpool's homegrown right-back, Johnson's overlapping ability in attack will add another dimension to the side, complimenting Enrique's bursts on the opposite flank and combining well with the talents of both Henderson or Kuyt.

Quietly in ninth, Norwich have adapted to the Premiership quicker than expected. Rather than last season's 4-4-2 diamond, Norwich now usually line up in a more pragmatic 4-4-1-1. Wins over Swansea, Sunderland, and Bolton; and draws against Wigan and Stoke see the club on 11 points after eight matches, just three behind Liverpool. Losses came against Chelsea and United – both away and sealed with late strikes – as well as a narrow defeat when hosting West Brom five weeks ago.

Steve Morison's keeping last season's hero Grant Holt out of the starting XI, while left winger Pilkington is Norwich's top scorer. The Canaries' two injury concerns are both in central defense, and are both former Liverpool players: Zak Whitbread is still recovering from a hamstring injury while Danny Ayala did his knee in his first start after joining the club. Those injuries in defense help account for the fact that Norwich is one of only two Premiership clubs which have failed to keep a clean sheet in the league this season. That Norwich's defense audibly creaks and groans will undoubtedly perk Suarez's vulcan ears up.

Even if Norwich plays some of their aesthetically pleasing football from last season, this will be another test of Liverpool's ability to break down a pragmatic, resilient side. Which, as we're all well aware, they've had varying levels of success with, both home and away. This season's home win against Bolton is an excellent template for taking the game to the opposition.

Lucas: The Holding Midfielder

2011-10-20T11:09:00.000-04:00

With Lucas suspended for Saturday, having already picked up five bookings (four in the league, one in the Carling Cup), I thought I'd take a look at how his defending has matured since becoming a regular starter in 2009-10.

Lucas appeared in 35 league matches (32 starts, three subs) in 2009-10, 33 (32 starts, one sub) in 2010-11, and in all eight so far this season.

The above shows a natural evolution for a still-young foreign player becoming accustomed to the league and receiving more responsibility in each successive season. He's made more tackles, both successful and attempted, and has markedly improved tackling percentage without a subsequent increase in fouls committed. But can we call it "maturation" with Lucas incurring so many more bookings this season?

Lucas didn't pick up his first league booking in '10-11 until Liverpool's 12th game: at Wigan on November 10. In '09-10, his first league booking came in Liverpool's 13th game: against City on November 21. His first this season came in the second match, at Arsenal, followed up with cards against Wolves, Everton, and United in the last three fixtures.

I have two theories for the increase in yellow cards. First, he's had far more cleaning up to do when paired with Adam in midfield, which also partly accounts for his increase in tackles. Second, due to his increased visibility, referees are simply paying far more attention to the player. I like the second excuse. It has just the right conspiratorial mix of "it's not his fault" and "it's the referee's fault." There are probably elements of truth in both.

His 111 successful tackles and 172 attempted tackles led the league in both categories last season. If he plays the same number of fixtures as last season, he's on pace for 144 successful tackles and 198 attempted tackles.

There is one disclaimer in regards to Lucas' 2010-11 numbers. As with everything last season, there's a clear difference between Lucas under Hodgson and Lucas under Dalglish. In his 17 matches under Dalglish (compared to playing in 16 of Hodgson's 20), Lucas averaged 4.06 successful tackles, 5.94 attempted tackles, 2.06 fouls committed, and 0.18 yellow cards per match. Significantly more successful and attempted tackles, slightly more fouls committed, but fewer yellow cards. That tackling percentage works out to 68.3%, similar to his '09-10 number.

It's not as if Lucas played with a less-defensive partner under Dalglish last season, as with Adam so far in this. Lucas' usual partner in last campaign's run-in was Spearing; he was usually paired with Gerrard, Meireles, or (less frequently) Poulsen under Hodgson. Like with many at the club, Dalglish has been good for the player, and Lucas has responded in kind.

Now, if he could just cut back on the bookings. Liverpool can't have him missing many games this season.

Liverpool 0-1 Rangers

2011-10-18T17:43:00.001-04:00

Doni
Johnson Coates Agger Wilson
Spearing Lucas Aurelio
Bellamy Carroll Maxi

Goals:
McCulloch 20'

Subs:
58' – Hansen for Doni
64' – Adam for Lucas
64' – Downing for Bellamy
64' – Flanagan for Johnson
64' – Kuyt for Aurelio
78' – Enrique for Wilson
78' – Henderson for Maxi
78' – Skrtel for Agger

The match was poor, Liverpool were poor. This is why if any mid-season club friendlies take place, they're usually unseen by mere mortals, behind closed doors. But Rangers really need money, while Liverpool wouldn't mind some sweet sweet cash of their own. Plus, the pretense of a pretend European match held a bit of allure for both sides. Not to mention the actual, tangible benefits of match practice for those returning from injury, out-of-favor, or inexperienced. Unfortunately, the one player who actually impressed, Doni, now has a broken or dislocated finger.

Today doesn't seem to deserve the usual formation diagram. Besides, the initial set-up only lasted until Rangers' opener. What started as something like a 4-3-3, something like a 4-3-2-1, with Bellamy and Maxi playing off Carroll, the first half ended with Bellamy behind Carroll and Maxi on the right, much more a 4-4-1-1 seemingly intent on calming and balancing an open, unfamiliar side.

Liverpool had scads of early possession, but were bogged down by a deep midfield and defense soaking up disconnected pressure. Rangers' chance on the counter turned into three when Liverpool couldn't clear: Doni had to make two smart saves before Liverpool failed to empty a corner, Johnson's half-clearance falling to McCulloch, whose shot fortunately ricocheted off both post and Aurelio.

The first raft of substitutions again altered the formation, now a more familiar 4-2-2-2, but Liverpool still lacked tempo and chances. Rangers, at home and with more to gain and prove, had chances: Doni's injury came when scrambling to somehow keep out Lafferty's effort, while the same player hit the bar and Weir's strike landed on the roof of the net. But it was no surprise to see Liverpool finally threaten in the last ten minutes with more usual starters on the pitch, but Henderson had efforts deflected over and volleyed wide, Carroll headed wide and didn't win a soft penalty, and Downing's right-footed shot was easily smothered. Alas.

Regardless of result, game time for the returning-from-injury Agger, Aurelio, and Johnson, two of whom start in Liverpool's best back four, assuredly benefits the club. Coates, one of the better players on the day, got 90 more minutes with his new teammates. Doni also needed a chance with Reina playing in the Carling Cup as well as every league match ever, and his injury was today's biggest blot. Those just outside the first-team looking in probably should have done more; neither Maxi, Bellamy, nor Spearing furthered their cause. Carroll, finally an out-and-out target man, was the worst offender, without service for long stretches but also appearing wholly uninterested. I'll be more concerned if that's the case in the league or cups. The entire side, even those supposedly looking to force their way into contention, played like, well, like it was a friendly.

Today saw something akin to a Carling Cup line-up in previous years: predominantly second-string veterans with a couple of regular starters and a youngster or two. Liverpool were able to give these players games in a situation where the club aren't punished if/when it doesn't work perfectly. Unlike when we've seen the side booted out of an actual competition by the likes of Northampton, Reading, or Braga.

It'd be nice to have more positives, to write something other than "friendlies are friendlies," but we've enough to worry about from competitive fixtures. I'd rather save complaints (and praise, if any) for when it counts.

Chalkboard Miscellany v United

2011-10-17T09:40:00.000-04:00

Instead of an in-depth look at a single facet, I thought I'd post multiple chalkboards from Saturday's match, highlighting a couple of predominant themes.

Crosses

That Zonal Marking mentions this in his weekly league-wide roundup demonstrates how glaring a stat it was. 22 attempted crosses, two successful. Liverpool attempted more crosses in only one other match: 26 against Stoke (seven successful, 19 unsuccessful). Interestingly, it's the exact same total as against Everton, where Liverpool were away from home playing in a different formation with Carroll included. It was an odd strategy to maintain on Saturday with Suarez as a lone striker, matched up against Rio Ferdinand, and demonstrates the necessity of attacking variation. Also, it's worth nothing that Downing accounts for both of Liverpool's successful crosses against United, creating chances for Kuyt and Henderson in the final ten minutes.

United's impotent wingers

United hurt their own cause by leaving Nani on the bench, but Manchester's wingers were utterly silent on Saturday. Park and Young attempted 33 passes combined, fewer than Kuyt (44 of 56) and Downing (35 of 42) completed on their own.

It's hard to overemphasize each's excellent performance on Saturday, primarily in shutting down the opposition. Kelly was more reserved in going forward on the right, using less of the touchline than his counterpart, but both were extremely effective. Enrique, at £6m, is looking like Liverpool's best bit of summer business, and has been the best left back in the league through these eight matches.

Charlie Adam

On the whole, Adam was much-improved. A more-thorough stat line reads: 31/41 passing (75.6%); 31/39 in open play; 3/4 tackles; 1/1 aerial; 1/1 take-on; 4 interceptions; 3 FKs won, 0 conceded. This is what his StatsZone dashboard looks like, with all incidents on one chalkboard.

The defensive statistics are probably more important than the above passing chalkboards. It's the second-most amount of tackles he's made in a Liverpool match (behind five at Arsenal) and the most interceptions. That he won three free kicks without conceding any fouls is also an impressive and heartening change. And that's with Lucas having a sub-par match as the primary holding midfielder.

What the above passing chalkboard shows is Adam in a freer role at its fullest. Relieved of more responsibilities in a midfield with both Gerrard and Lucas (and then Gerrard and Henderson), Adam had his best game for the club. Which is unsurprisingly no coincidence. His other excellent game came at Arsenal, the other match where Liverpool played five in midfield (4-2-3-1). The extra body in midfield meant Adam could actually be free in the free role he's been playing. If he could only do better with his final ball.

Defensive chalkboards

Only the match at Arsenal saw Liverpool attempt more tackles than against United. And no match saw more Liverpool interceptions; again, at Arsenal is the closest comparison, with 17 to 19 against United. Seven of those 19 on Saturday came in United's half – three of which were by Adam.

Relatedly, Liverpool also attempted fewer clearances than in any other match save Stoke. Despite the deep back line, the four defenders were rarely under copious pressure and mainly cleared without hoofing. And that was without Agger and Johnson, Liverpool's two best ball-playing defenders.

On the whole, Liverpool bolstered the defense by subtracting from attack, mainly by creating better balance in midfield. For the second time, Liverpool changed the formation against one of the historic "big four." Unlike against Arsenal, Liverpool weren't able to take advantage of tiring legs, especially without the advantage of an opposition red card. The return of Gerrard and five in midfield made Liverpool more secure, but Liverpool also created fewer chances than usual against United at Anfield and needed a United set play mistake to score. Unfortunately, despite that bolstering of defense, Liverpool still committed enough sloppy errors – one, in fact – to be punished.

Evolutionary progress was also going to be a slow process, and after eight games, Liverpool are still finding the balance between attack and defense, between 4-2-2-2 and 4-5-1. Once they do – and find a way to cut out those defensive errors – Liverpool will be difficult opposition for any side.

Liverpool 1-1 United

2011-10-15T10:41:00.001-04:00

Goals:
Gerrard 68'
Chicharito 81'

So close. But Liverpool can't take full advantage of chances created, and United keeps scoring late goals. Narratives are awesome.

Both managers would have been happy with the first hour of play. United's surprisingly defensive lineup – without Rooney, Nani, and Chicharito and with Phil Jones in midfield – limited Liverpool opportunities. Liverpool kept it tight, with United even more lacking in the final third, but Suarez was often isolated as Liverpool lined up in a fairly orthodox but fairly fluid 4-5-1.

And each goal came from an opposition set-play mistake. Gerrard broke the deadlock by breaking United's wall with a free kick, eerily parallel with his equalizing goal at Old Trafford last year. Hernandez leveled 13 minutes later, five minutes after coming on, when Welbeck lost Carra on a corner and Chicharito lost Skrtel to follow up the flick-on.

It was a frustrating first half: both sides clearly prioritizing defense, somehow both over-exuberant and cagey. The 4-5-1 formation did well to blunt United, but United also blunted themselves, reliant on Young and Welbeck to break Liverpool's back line with pace, which they were unable to do with Carragher, Skrtel, and at least one fullback sitting deep. Despite Suarez as a lone striker, most of Liverpool's forays into the final third ended with crosses from Downing, Enrique, Gerrard, and Kuyt, as if Carroll were still involved.

Jones had an early half-chance before Liverpool fully settled, heading into the side-netting at the back post following one of Evra's few overlaps down the left. Liverpool's mainly came on set plays and breaks of the ball: Gerrard slammed a short corner across the face of goal in the 22nd and Suarez luckily picked up Adam's deflected shot, only to slam his effort straight at De Gea, in the 34th – which was the only save required from either keeper in the first half.

The second half continued in the same safety-first vein until Liverpool finally took advantage of one of those door-opening missteps. Adam bought a free kick, marginally clipped by a retreating Ferdinand, and Gerrard found the gap between Welbeck and Giggs. I won't quote all those clever folks who made "Giggs was protecting his most important body part" jokes. It was clever, though.

United were planning on sending on both Rooney and Nani prior to the opener, one of Ferguson frequent double substitutions, ready to exploit tiring Liverpool legs with fresh attackers. Chicharito joined the fray soon after, and inevitable United pressure followed – not necessarily a matter of Liverpool protecting a lead; almost every side responds after conceding and the substitutions certainly helped. And Liverpool were coping well until two defenders were beaten on a set play for the only time in the match, on United's third corner (compared to Liverpool's eight), scoring with their second (and only threatening) shot on target. Liverpool are making fewer defense errors, but are still being punished for them. Life isn't fair sometimes.

While the concession could have sent Liverpool reeling and retreating, allowing United to complete the "champions comeback" narrative, the equalizer buoyed the home side. De Gea's save on Kuyt diving prod and palming away the subsequent corner came immediately. Three more chances came in quick succession in injury time: Liverpool's only substitute, Jordan Henderson, forced a lovely save from De Gea with a dipping volley and somehow headed Downing's inch-perfect cross over the bar, bracketing Skrtel ballooning a scrambled corner after Suarez and Adam couldn't make clean contact.

Liverpool shaded pretty much everything: possession, chances created, pattern of play, shots on goal, and unlucky 50-50 referee decisions (could have had penalty for Evans' handball in the 51st, Ferdinand could have seen a second yellow for fouling Adam prior to Liverpool's goal, but no-calls on both are 'understandable'). That they did without coming away with all three points certainly irritates. As does Liverpool wasting five chances in the final ten minutes.

Gerrard's return was a revelation, roaming all over midfield and notching a trademark free kick on his return. Adam benefited most from his inclusion, adding extra support for the playmaker in midfield. Both fullbacks impressed, as did Henderson off the bench. On in place of Lucas, who clearly struggled following the international break, the midfielder's fresh legs and willing, clever runs were crucial to opening up the game, and Liverpool notably coped with losing Lucas' midfield tackling. If he'd only taken his chances. Also, that Lucas (and Suarez to a lesser extent) disappointed after returning from their South American sides unpleasantly contrasts with Chicharito's impact off the bench.

So nothing won, nothing lost, and Liverpool are probably more aggrieved with the result. On the plus side, Liverpool almost totally shut down a side who looked to be running away from the rest of the league. That Ferguson deployed an unfamiliar defensive shape gives Liverpool more credit than they probably deserve. Gerrard immediately demonstrated what Liverpool missed, adding many more options to a still-maturing side. Yes, Liverpool aren't scoring, but at least they got into those scoring positions in a frequently cautious fixture – although that's little reassurance when it's been routinely repeated through the first eight games. Some credit has to go to De Gea as well (thanks everyone who jinxed it by questioning his competence). There are still multiple signs of an evolving, capable team somewhere in there.

On the negative side, it's one point instead of three. And Liverpool are probably more aggrieved with the result.

Liverpool v United 10.15.11

2011-10-14T09:40:00.000-04:00

7:45am ET, live in the US on espn2

Last four head-to-head:
3-1 Liverpool (h) 03.06.11
0-1 United (a; FA Cup) 01.09.11
2-3 United (a) 09.19.10
1-2 United (a) 03.21.10

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-0 Everton (a); 2-1 Wolves (h); 2-1 Brighton (a)
United: 2-0 Norwich (h); 3-3 Basle (h); 1-1 Stoke (a)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 4; Adam, Carroll, Henderson, Skrtel 1
United: Rooney 9; Nani, Welbeck 3; Anderson, Chicharito, Young 2; Park, Smalling 1

Referee: Andre Marriner

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Agger Enrique
Lucas Adam
Kuyt Gerrard Downing
Suarez

Suarez and Carroll in the 4-2-2-2, or more like a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 with Gerrard supposedly, finally fit to start?

The above is the same front six I guessed last week, expecting/hoping Liverpool would keep it tight in midfield at Goodison. With Gerrard even more likely to figure, it's less of a pipe dream. But that Dalglish has almost always gone with a 4-2-2-2, Gerrard or no Gerrard, remains an important hint. Gerrard could replace Adam, keeping the same formation, or Carroll, changing to the above 4-5-1 derivative. While it's been pleasing to see Carroll start to shift people's preconceived perceptions and find a decent vein of form, I think he's probably odd man out. Regardless, I'm still incredibly interested as to how Captain Fantastic fits into this side. It's somewhat unfortunate that the first opportunity comes against the Mancs.

If Dalglish says everyone's fit, I'm more than tempted to take him at his word (which may not be the brightest idea in the run-up to United). And I'd be quite happy to see Agger and Johnson reclaim starting spots: Agger because of the solidity and composure he offers Liverpool's defense, Johnson because of his greater ability on the overlap whether paired with Kuyt or Henderson. However, returning two players from injury seems a bold move before facing the Mancs. Kelly, even considering the knock suffered while with the u21s and Skrtel could well keep their places. If only one makes it, I'd guess that Johnson is further along the road to recovery than Agger simply due to their respective injury time-frames.

And as an annoying aside, two of Liverpool's most important players are on short rest after flying back from the Americas on Wednesday. Not that it should preclude either's participation. Just an irritating, hopefully unimportant fact of life. At least similar is the case for United's Chicharito, Fabio, and Valencia.

United have dropped points in just one of their seven league matches so far: a draw at Stoke three weeks ago. England's hero, villain, and comic relief Wayne Rooney is in blistering form, having tallied nine goals already this season. But the Mancs are also fallable: conceding the equalizer at Stoke, letting a two-goal Old Trafford lead slip to Basle in the Champions League, and struggling before ultimately finishing off Norwich in the last league fixture. In Rooney, Nani, Young, and Chicharito (or Welbeck), United have a superlative attacking quartet. But with Anderson and Carrick in midfield, and a clutch of promising but problematic defenders, United are also vulnerable. Right-back continues to be an issue, with round pegs Valencia, Smalling, or Jones to be crammed into that square hole, giving greater importance to Downing and Enrique (as well as Suarez, who loves working the left channel). As for injuries, Cleverly and Rafael are out, while Smalling and Vidic will be game-time decisions. I would imagine that everyone's favorite Serbian will be incredibly excited to revisit the scene of so many torments.

The home team has won the last five meetings between the sides – going back to that splendiferous 4-1 at Old Trafford – and Liverpool have beaten United in the last three meetings at Anfield. Which is a stat that frightens more than it reassures. United will already be up for this match – with Ferguson again stating it's the biggest match of the league campaign – and I'm sure Slur Alex has bemoaned United's recent Anfield record more than once in training this week. This three-match win streak is Liverpool's best run over United at Anfield since winning nine straight between 1972 and 1979.

These games are nerve-wracking in the extreme, just like Liverpool's last league contest. There has been no easing-in process this season, no time to wade around the shallow end before trying to swim in deep waters; Liverpool have had tough match after tough match from the start of the campaign. This will be more of the same and, considering the opposition, much much more at the same time.

Infographics: Liverpool Penalties

2011-10-10T10:54:00.000-04:00

Yep. More infographics as yet another international break is driving me insane.

Fairly straight-forward. As usual, click to expand images. A few random notes:

• Reasonable degree of variance from Liverpool's two main penalty takers: Kuyt and Gerrard. Kuyt went to the keeper's left four times (one saved), to the keeper's right twice, and down the middle once – with six of seven strikes along the ground. Gerrard went to the keeper's left three times, to the keeper's right twice, and down the middle once (which he blasted over).

• Liverpool haven't had the best of luck when it hasn't been one of the two main penalty takers. Ngog buried his against Steaua low to the keeper's right, but Cole saw his tame, waist-high effort saved and Suarez blasted well, well over.

• Odd to see that Lucas is joint-top for penalties won over the last three seasons, tied with N'Gog and Suarez. But he never gets into the box. Also noteworthy that Suarez has won Liverpool's last three spot kicks. In case you hadn't realized, he's quite good at football.

• Strikers accounted for eight of Liverpool's 17 penalties over this time frame (N'Gog, Suarez 3; Torres 2). Midfielders won six (Lucas 3; Gerrard, Maxi, Spearing 1) and defenders won three (Johnson 2, Kyrgiakos 1).

• The last time Liverpool missed consecutive penalties was in 2006-07: Bellamy and Gerrard both had spot kicks saved in November and December 2006, against Birmingham (Carling Cup) and Fulham respectively. Incidentally, Gerrard blasted home the rebound from his, and Liverpool won both games regardless. That was the only time Liverpool missed consecutive penalties under Benitez.

• Liverpool only won four penalties in 2009-10, compared to 11 in 2010-11 and two through nine games in 2011-12. That's an impossibly low number, especially when compared to Benitez's other seasons: Liverpool won 10 in 2008-09, eight in 2007-08, eight in 2006-07, 10 in 2005-06, and seven in 2004-05. A long out-of-date observation, but luck truly was against that season's side.

Seven-Game Shots Comparison: '09-10 – '11/12

2011-10-05T09:29:00.001-04:00

As usual, I'd recommend opening the main graphic in a new window. It's prettier that way, plus you can zoom in to see all those painstakingly placed bars. Also, as an FYI, when goals appear atop shots (circles on top of bars), it means the two incidents happened in the same minute, and it's usually for one of two reasons. If a goal's atop a blue or gray bar (on target or blocked shot), it's a goal tallied from a rebound. If it's atop a red, off-target bar, it's probably an own goal. Just to clarify the potentially convoluted design.

So, the point of this?

It's not especially heart-warming to see very similar totals between this season and the 2009-10 campaign, one where Liverpool struggled to seventh place and ultimately saw Benitez sacked.

However, that similarity comes with at least one caveat. This season's match at Tottenham was an aberration in extremis. In the past three seasons, Liverpool took fewer than eight shots in just one other match: the 1-2 loss at United in '09-10. After Adam's early red card, Liverpool were lucky to get those three shots. That Liverpool have incurred first-half red cards before and still managed more than three shots suggests it truly was an exceptional aberration, one which substantially affects the above totals.

Also, as results under Hodgson proved, more shots isn't always better. Not that we needed to live through the Era of Roy to learn that. Of course, sometimes more is better; Liverpool averaged 19.4 shots per game in 2008-09 (approximately four more per game than '10-11 and '11-12 so far and 2.5 more than '09-10), which led to an average of 2.05 goals per game. But that season, Liverpool averaged 9.46 shots per goal – almost exactly the rate from the seven games analyzed in '09-10. The season-long shots per goal averages for '09-10 and '10-11 were 10.56 and 9.86 respectively. Unsurprisingly, the '10-11 average was heavily impacted by the managerial change; Liverpool averaged 12.92 shots per goal during Hodgson's 20 games and 7.77 shots per goal in Dalglish's 18.

What's changed – besides the line-up, obviously – between Dalglish's side last season and the seven games so far in this? Liverpool averaged 15.1 shots per game under Dalglish last season, and 15.3 so far in this. Which makes the increase in shots off target significant. 46% of shots have been off target this season, compared to 37% in '10-11 and 36% in '09-10 in the same seven fixtures. Liverpool had more shots off target than on in five of the seven matches, with the totals equal in the other two. In Dalglish's 18 games last season, Liverpool had more shots on target than off (one more, actually: 105 to 104). This season, the team was particularly wasteful against Sunderland and Stoke, and the results clearly suffered.

Long story short: score more goals please. However, that's not necessarily dependent on firing more shots in the general vicinity of the opposition's net.

Liverpool 2-0 Everton

2011-10-01T10:41:00.000-04:00

Goals:
Carroll 71'
Suarez 82'

The referee will be the focal point, so we'll start with the controversy. Yes, Rodwell didn't deserve a red. Yes, Liverpool deserved their win regardless.

In fact, Liverpool should have taken an earlier lead, especially since Kuyt is usually automatic for the people from the spot, and the sending off actually helped Everton until the players inevitably tired. Everton are at their best when sitting deep and compact. Moyes does nothing better than organizing his defense, and Liverpool had surprisingly few opportunities despite a man advantage for almost 70 minutes.

Liverpool started the better side, intelligently keeping possession – even if mainly in their own half – to make sure Everton didn't start afire (which is what doomed Liverpool's last away league game). That start resulted in two early chances: Downing on the break centering just ahead of an open Suarez, followed by Kuyt capitalizing on Jagielka's mistake, looping a high cross to Suarez at the back-post but tamely headed straight at Howard.

Everton unsurprisingly responded, winning five corners and two dangerous left-channel free kicks in the first 20 minutes, but Liverpool's set play defense was excellent, with Carra, Carroll, Skrtel, and Lucas dominant in the air against tough opposition. Then came the game-changer.

Martin Atkinson clearly remembered his last Merseyside derby, where he failed to send off Pienaar until the South African racked up multiple dismissal-worthy offenses, and only sent off Kyrgiakos in an incident where both the Greek and Fellaini should have marched. That's the only explanation for Rodwell's straight red. His studs were marginally high, with a trailing leg designed to take a second bite at Suarez's ankles, but it was yellow at best under normal circumstances. Somehow, it's tough to empathize.

As said above, the sending off actually initially helped Everton, as much as a sending off can. Everton knows how to defend with backs against the wall. Liverpool had all the possession, but couldn't carve out opportunities until late in the half. Early balls in Carroll's direction weren't coming off – the strike force failing to link as they had at Wolves – while both Hibbert and Baines sealed off the flanks. Liverpool's first of two chances came on a mistake from Jagielka: a clear, unnecessary penalty taking out Suarez on the left edge of the box. Up stepped Kuyt, so deadly from the spot and in derbies. His low, placed penalty was too easy for Howard: a smart reaction save, but also the Dutchman's worst spot kick. A minute later, Adam pinged an effort off the crossbar from the same location he created an own goal against Wolves, the sixth time Liverpool hit the woodwork since losing to Spurs.

Liverpool kept creating chances after the interval. Carroll had two threatening headers from corners – the first cleared off the line by Saha, the second scrambled behind by Howard – followed by Kuyt placing wide after a quick free kick, but the away side looked increasingly disjointed and frustrated. Finally, substitutions broke that ubiquitous deadlock. With 23 minutes to play, veterans Gerrard and Bellamy replaced derby debutantes Adam and Downing and made all the difference. Gerrard added dynamism, patience, and intelligence in midfield. Bellamy's terrier pace created Carroll's opener.

Everton's increasing fatigue certainly helped, penned back and chasing since Rodwell's exit, but Liverpool still needed an excellent team goal to go ahead. Lucas intelligently spread play to Bellamy on the counter, with both Hibbert and Neville retreating too deep, unable or unwilling to press the ball. Sliding it through to Enrique at the byline, the left-back's cross was cleverly dummied on the bounce by Kuyt (whose run drew both center-backs), warned by Carroll, who blasted on the half-volley for his first league goal of the season. Redemption. Potential realized.

Ten minutes later – with Everton's sole response a quick, tame effort from Cahill immediately after the restart, released by a long flick-on – Liverpool had the crucial second. This one was down to Suarez's innate unwillingness to give up, aided by some baffling defense from the usually reliable Distin. Carra's hoof (and I hesitate to call an accurate long-range pass a hoof, but it is Carra...) found Kuyt between defenders, who knocked down for the Uruguayan. Beating Distin, Baines made a lovely recovery tackle. But with Distin still retreating, the defenders got in a muddle, and Suarez fortunately picked up possession for a point-blank, easy-as-you-like death blow, placed past Howard with his weaker foot. Game, set, match, celebration.

Of course I'd rather focus on Liverpool's resiliency, perseverance, and skill in finally finding the needed goals. It's only the second clean sheet of the season, both surprisingly coming in early kickoffs away from Anfield. Lucas was typically outstanding in a big match (stat line: 68/74 passing – with 40/46 passes forward – 65 passes received, 4/6 on tackles, 2 interceptions, 2/3 on aerial duels); Carragher was untouchable, winning every aerial duel against the dangerous Cahill and Saha; Enrique continued to impress, close to cementing his status as one of the three best left backs in the league; and Kuyt was Kuyt, solidifying the right flank, ensuring Baines rarely threatened with his outstanding crosses, no matter the surprising spot kick mishap. Both Liverpool's strikers scored on their derby debuts, and Dalglish's double substitution made a massive difference. Tactics worked exactly as drawn up, even though it was surprising to see Liverpool stick with the 4-2-2-2 against a packed midfield prior to the man advantage.

But the post-match media narrative will undoubtedly focus on Atkinson's contentious decision, despite subsequent worse fouls by Fellaini, Jagielka, and Hibbert going unpunished. Given past history in derbies, let alone past Liverpool luck with red cards, I'm certainly less than sympathetic. And I'd much rather focus on Liverpool's professional, eventually comprehensive win away from Anfield in one of the most important fixtures of the season.

Liverpool at Everton 10.01.11

2011-09-30T09:29:00.000-04:00

7:45am ET, live in the US on espn2

Last four head-to-head:
2-2 (h) 01.16.11
0-2 Everton (a) 10.17.10
1-0 Liverpool (h) 02.06.10
2-0 Liverpool (a) 11.29.09

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Wolves (h); 2-1 Brighton (a); 0-4 Spurs (a)
Everton: 0-2 City (a); 2-1 West Brom (h); 3-1 Wigan (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 3; Adam, Henderson, Skrtel 1
Everton: Baines, Drenthe, Jagielka, Osman, Vellios 1

Referee: Martin Atkinson

This was a yellow card in the last Merseyside Derby Atkinson did. Sent off Kyrgiakos for a violent, two-footed 50-50 with Fellaini too (both should have marched). Liverpool still won.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Carragher Skrtel Enrique
Lucas Adam
Kuyt Gerrard Downing
Suarez

The first of October, and Liverpool will have already played at Arsenal, Tottenham, Stoke, and Everton. Four of the seven toughest away fixtures, with trips to both Manchester clubs and Moscow-in-London to come. The esoteric vagaries of automated scheduling, I guess.

I expect Liverpool will try to keep it tighter than we've seen in recent 4-2-2-2 matches, using a formation more like the 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 deployed against Arsenal. Frenetic doesn't come close to summarizing; this match usually is war minus the shooting, and Liverpool will need to be far less open than against Tottenham, Brighton, or Wolves. Options were far more limited last season, but when Dalglish's side faced Everton in his second league game back, the team lined up 4-2-3-1 (after using 4-3-3 against Blackpool) with a five-man midfield of Lucas, Spearing; Kuyt, Meireles, Maxi.

It's tough to contemplate Gerrard staying on the bench for this fixture. Yes, he's only played 25 minutes, spread among two substitute appearances, since returning from the never-ending groin injury. Today's long interview on the official site dropped few hints. But he's still Liverpool's talisman, the club anthropomorphized. No matter his history of red cards in this fixture (twice against Everton, two of his six career reds), he often is this fixture. If Gerrard isn't ready, I'd prefer to see Henderson in a straight swap, playing ahead of the two sitting midfielders as against Arsenal, but there's also a case for Spearing and a more orthodox three-man midfield. There's also a case for Spearing instead of Adam as well – much-discussed, and that Adam needs time on the ball (something he's not likely to get) is well-established – but I just can't see Dalglish doing it.

Kuyt should also be one of the first names on the teamsheet. The ever-present right flank selection debate doesn't matter. Dirk Kuyt is the scourge of the bitter blues. He's scored five goals against Everton in his Liverpool career (tied with Newcastle and Wigan for his most against any club) – two winners and last season's equalizer. Three from the spot. Evertonians absolutely hate him. Which is why we love him. Even more than his goal-scoring exploits, his tracking back and work-rate will be crucial tomorrow. Baines, at left-back, is Everton's best player: bombing forward and delivering crosses for Cahill. Kuyt is key to plugging that pipeline.

Liverpool's back four continues to write itself due to injuries. Johnson's available, finally back in full training after a second hamstring strain this season, but chances are Dalglish sticks with the fitter right back. Agger's recuperating quicker than expected, but this fixture still comes too soon.

In the continuing absence of a decent striker, chances are Moyes will stick with his 4-6-0 formation with Cahill as the furthest forward. Playing a 4-2-2-2 against that is asking to be overrun and without the ball for long stretches, especially given Liverpool precedent when away from Anfield. Anichebe, one of Everton's few forwards, is the only injury casualty. Last week's starting XI – Howard; Hibbert, Jagielka, Distin, Baines; Coleman, Neville, Rodwell, Fellaini, Osman; Cahill – all seem likely to keep their place.

The usual derby clichés all apply. Form goes out the window. Fair play goes out the window. The venue, home or away, seems far less important. Last season was the first time Everton held Liverpool winless in the two meetings since 2006-07, the season of Everton's "historic" three-nil Goodison win. Which adds an unnecessary revenge aspect to this contest. Tempers will already be frayed, both sides will already have enough inspiration and motivation.

Orwell's quote again seems fitting. "Serious sport has nothing to do with fair play. It is bound up with hatred, jealousy, boastfulness, disregard of all rules and sadistic pleasure in witnessing violence: in other words it is war minus the shooting." The Merseyside Derby is the epitome of serious sport.

Henderson v Kuyt: Four Games on the Right Flank

2011-09-26T12:28:00.002-04:00

Below is a comparison of individual statistics from Henderson and Kuyt's last four league games when played on the right of a 4-2-2-2. Formation notation is subjective, especially with this season's group of players, but these are how I saw each formation at the start of matches. For Henderson, that's wins over Wolves and Bolton, the draw against Sunderland, and loss at Stoke. For Kuyt, it's last season's win over City, draw at Arsenal, and losses to Spurs and West Brom.

No opinion, no commentary, just numbers. As always, remember the oft-cited 'your lying eyes' argument. Stats without context is driving without directions – you might get there in the end, but it's more down to luck than knowledge. Regardless, there are some interesting, and surprising, things to see.

All statistics from Opta via the FourFourTwo Stats Zone app. Too many chalkboards to post, so you're just getting the numbers. Check the app, or the comparable Guardian chalkboards, for the "pretty" pictures. If you have an iPhone or iPod Touch, I highly recommend the FourFourTwo app.

The customary caveats/notes:

• Main caveat: this focuses solely on the statistics because I don't want it to turn into a critique – or endorsement for that matter – of either. Six games into the new season with a rebuilt squad seems too soon to start second-guessing a manager with Dalglish's CV. Hodgson was different because the regression was obvious and constant. I think Henderson's done decently in his matches aside from Saturday's, especially considering circumstances. The condemnation he's received from some quarters has been mean-spirited and inexcusable, and if anything similar appears in the comments, it'll be deleted. Everyone would do well to remember he's a 21-year-old in his first season at Liverpool, adapting to a new role. And I don't need a disclaimer about my never-ending, probably illegal love for Dirk Kuyt.

• Henderson was subbed off in all four of the above matches, playing a total of 274 out of 360 minutes. Kuyt was subbed off once, in the 87th against West Brom – giving him 83 more minutes of playing time in the four games considered. All of Liverpool goals scored and all but one of those conceded (Bolton's consolation) in Henderson's games came with him on the pitch, though.

• The right-backs Henderson played with were Kelly, Skrtel, Kelly/Skrtel, and Flanagan. The right-backs Kuyt played with were Flanagan, Flanagan, Flanagan, and Carragher.

• The teams considered for Kuyt's four games finished 5th, 4th, 3rd, and 11th in 2010-11. The teams considered for Henderson's four games finished 17th, 13th, 14th, and 10th in 2010-11 (no point in using this season's table yet).

• Liverpool kept clean sheets in none of Henderson's four games and just one of Kuyt's four. Liverpool conceded four in Henderson's set of matches, five in Kuyt's set. Liverpool scored six in Henderson's set of matches, five in Kuyt's set.

• Finally, I promised no commentary, but can't help mentioning the passing completion, take-ons, tackles, interceptions, and fouls committed stats stick out like beacon bright-red sore thumbs.

Update:
• Should have done this in the original post; seeing certain numbers misconstrued around the internet, so I feel the need to add. There is an egregious discrepancy in some of the stats no matter the number of minutes played: specifically take-ons and basically all the defensive statistics. But due to Henderson playing 83 fewer minutes, there is basically no difference in the number of passes (passes attempted, successful passes, attacking third passes, passes received) when controlling for minutes played.

Averaging the above four games, Henderson attempted 44 passes per 90 minutes, with 34 successful. Kuyt attempted 47 passes per 90 minutes, with 32 successful. Henderson received 44 passes per 90 minutes, Kuyt received 46 passes per 90 minutes. Henderson attempted 20 attacking third passes per 90 minutes, Kuyt attempted 24 attacking third passes per 90 minutes, and both completed 14 attacking third passes per 90 minutes. By the numbers, Henderson is not less involved in the passing game; the completion percentage is the only significant difference in each's passing statistics. Granted, that doesn't account for the usual 'chalkboards don't tell us what kind of passes they were' argument, but that argument's not going away. Don't throw the baby out with bath water, but you have to actually watch the games for that information. Sorry.

That is why I mentioned the number of minutes played above in the 'caveats' section, but by now, I should be well aware of the need to fully explicate. My apologies.

Liverpool 2-1 Wolves

2011-09-24T12:47:00.002-04:00

Goals:
Johnson (og) 12'
Suarez 38'
Fletcher 46'

Phew. Excellent, if direct, first half. Terrifying, nerve-shredding second. This team doesn't do anything the easy way.

Despite Wolves running at defenders for the first five to ten minutes, snuffed out by Enrique in open play and Carroll on set pieces, Liverpool settled with another early strike. This one had more than an air of fortune – Adam shrugging off O'Hara with a shoulder feint before firing from distance, redirected into the net by Roger Johnson – but Liverpool's due that air of fortune. It'd be a rare ray of luck shining on the home side. Thankfully, they didn't need it.

From there, as against Sunderland, Exeter, Bolton, and Brighton, Liverpool should have soon extended the gap. The Suarez and Carroll finally showed signs of its promising promise, aided by Downing and Enrique's charges at right back Stearman. Carroll headed straight at Hennessey from Downing's cross. Then the massive's striker's clever cross just eluded an on-rushing Suarez. Then the Uruguayan's first time shot from Downing's cutback just swerved wide. Liverpool, content to play on the counter-attack more than in previous matches, added to ever-present jitters, but the direct style led to opportunities as defenders, specifically Enrique and Skrtel, soaked up pressure.

But unlike in all those previous matches, Liverpool finally notched a second before the interval, the first time they've scored twice in the first half in this young season. Enrique's long throughball found an onside Suarez: rushing on goal, Suarez checked back twice trying to carve out space, allowing defenders to retreat. No matter. Somehow, the tricky Uruguayan still found the room to beat Hennessey at the near post with yet another indescribable display of skill. He does things others can't even contemplate. Sometimes it leads to frustrating nothingness. Sometimes it leads to that jaw-shattering brilliance. He nearly added to that tally in injury time, picking up possession after Downing's low cross ricocheted to his feet, beating two defenders but toe-poking just wide.

To his credit, McCarthy realized the errors of his ways at half-time and reorganized, replacing midfielder Edwards with striker Fletcher and removing poor, whipped, booked Stearman with teenager Doherty. Having been thrashed 3-0 at their own ground the last time Wolves were bold enough to play 4-4-2 against Liverpool, McCarthy was understandably hesitant to repeat that error. Indiscretion immediately proved the better part of valor as Fletcher took less than a minute to pull one back; lucky to retain possession after a ricochet from Enrique's tackle, Hunt burst into the box and centered for an open Fletcher, blasting into the roof of the net from close range.

Liverpool had chances to immediately restore the two-goal advantage, but found themselves deserted by previous mistress Lady Luck. In a three-minute span, Hennessey somehow saved Suarez's shot after palming straight to the striker, Carroll somehow only found the back post after Enrique's brilliant cross, and Downing somehow hit the crossbar on the break, again saved by the Welsh keeper. Liverpool were prevented goals by the frame thrice on Wednesday, twice today. The league really should check the width of the opposition's posts prior to kickoff. That and it's always, always better to be lucky than good.

Having survived that flurry as well as the first half, Wolves were buoyant, camped in Liverpool's petrified half. Aside from Carragher and Skrtel barely scrambling a goalmouth ball away in the 56th and O'Hara's long blast over four minutes later, the away side weren't racking up chances, but Liverpool's frailty and nerves are news to absolutely no one.

Kelly, frequently one-on-one with Jarvis as Henderson had arguably his worst game of the season, invisible with Liverpool out of possession, was under the most pressure. It was little surprise to see the home side settle once Kuyt replaced the struggling midfielder in the 72nd. Honestly, I thought it led to more disconnect the few times Liverpool attacked, with Suarez and the Dutchman trying their usual flicks and tricks but not coming off with the Uruguayan clearly tiring, but Kuyt certainly settled the defense. And it led to another spate of Liverpool chances: Lucas placed a long-range low shot wide, Suarez's cutback after brilliant trademark byline run was just deflected out of Carroll's reach, and the live-wire striker misdirected a header he had no right reaching.

Nonetheless, it remained impossible to feel safe watching this team retain a one goal. Gerrard joined the fray with ten to play – Dalglish understandably hesitant to throw his returning captain – and soon created a typical effort, heading into space from Carroll's knockdown but shooting over, the type of goal he's scored time and time again for the club. Carroll should have sealed it in the last minute of injury time, but tried too hard to dance into space, the final whistle coming with Wolves' last-ditch tackle.

It would have been lovely to maintain the first half momentum, finally stringing two excellent halves together as well as maybe keeping a clean sheet for a change, but Wolves' fierce resistance under McCarthy made that impossible. That Liverpool were able to hold on despite 45 massively frightening minutes is just as meaningful, hopefully cementing the side's confidence in its own abilities.

It continues to be impossible to do Suarez justice, while his link-up with Carroll was much-improved. We saw the giant Geordie playing to potential in the first half: ever dangerous, ever frightening defenders, dropping deep, and showing his ambidexterity and passing ability. Caught flat-footed more than once, there's obviously room for improvement, but other than getting on the score-sheet, it was the performance he needed. Just as impressive were Lucas' powers of recovery – I'm amazed he showed few ill effects from Sunday and Wednesday's exertions – as well as Skrtel and Enrique's defense, regardless of the unlucky goal. The Spanish left-back was also excellent up and down the touchline, rightfully credited with the assist for the crucial second.

Needed result is needed result, with two wins on the trot. The building blocks continue to be stacked slowly but increasingly securely. The gradual process rolls on.

Now, form, style, grace, class, and loving thy neighbor will be undoubtedly thrown out the window with next week's Merseyside derby. Today's second half fight should be perfect practice for that perpetual battle of attrition.

Liverpool v Wolves 09.24.11

2011-09-23T10:25:00.000-04:00

10am ET, live in the US on Fox Deportes and FoxSoccer.tv. Guess I'll be watching this with Spanish commentary, then. No me gusta.

Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (a) 01.22.11
0-1 Wolves (h) 12.29.10
0-0 (a) 01.26.10
2-0 Liverpool (h) 12.26.09

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Brighton (a); 0-4 Spurs (a); 0-1 Stoke (a)
Wolves: 5-0 Millwall (h); 0-3 QPR (h); 0-2 Spurs (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 2; Adam, Henderson, Skrtel 1
Wolves: Doyle, Fletcher, Jarvis, Ward 1

Referee: Kevin Friend

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Skrtel Carragher Enrique
Kuyt Lucas Adam Downing
Suarez Bellamy

So, if it ain't broke...

However, fitness concerns may mean fixing is needed no matter what may or may not be broken. There are doubts about Lucas, Suarez, Kelly, and Bellamy after their efforts on Wednesday (and the first two's efforts last Sunday). Dalglish has always, repeatedly, promised to use the entire squad.

As long as Bellamy's 32-year-old legs are still attached after 90 minutes on Wednesday, he should be one of the first names on the team-sheet. Yes, it was against Brighton and yes, the first half looked far, far better than the second, but his link-up with Suarez showed the most promise we've seen up front in this young season. Especially since it seems the team's best served by Kuyt playing on the right of midfield.

I will mention/caution that Jordan Henderson is one of eight who have started all five of Liverpool's league matches (along with Reina, Carra, Agger, Enrique, Lucas, Adam, and Downing). It's early yet, but Henderson and Carroll are neck and neck for favored scapegoat status, taking over for the previously-much-maligned Kuyt and Lucas. Maybe the above guess at a line-up should have been titled "preferred line-up" instead. Maybe it's a mix of both. Fair warning and all.

In an ideal world, given concerns about Lucas' fitness, the opposition, and that the match is at Anfield, if any game was a test run for a Gerrard-Adam midfield, seems like it's this. Pity we don't live in an ideal world. Gerrard will probably, rightfully be brought back slowly, featuring off the bench if at all. Be safe, Lucas.

Skrtel and Adam will both return from suspension. Skrtel seemingly has to start with Agger injured and Coates still adapting to England. That Carragher played on the left of defense on Wednesday seems preparation for Agger's extended absence. Adam, a footballer who lives on the extremes – either excellent or terrible, brilliant or moronic, with little in-between – is another of those preferred eight, seemingly crucial to how Dalglish wants this season's side to play. More than his predilection for the killer pass at the expense of the easy, it's his defensive game which needs the most improvement.

Like Liverpool, Wolves suffered two debilitating league losses prior to a morale-boosting Carling Cup win. McCarthy's side has been held scoreless in its last three league games following wins in their first two against Fulham and Blackburn, but responded with a 5-0 castration of Millwall featuring a mostly second-string side. The likes of Doyle, Fletcher, Henry, Jarvis and O'Hara, among others, are back in contention for the starting XI; chances are it'll be Doyle or Fletcher, as McCarthy switches from his preferred 4-4-2 to the 4-5-1 he's used in most matches with Liverpool (all except last season's 3-0 defeat by my reckoning). Foley, Ebanks-Blake, Zubar, and Craddock are out injured, but new captain Roger Johnson, signed from Birmingham over the summer, should be back after suffering a calf injury against QPR.

Last season's penultimate Hodgson embarrassment was the worst of the bunch, but Liverpool's rarely played well against McCarthy's Wolves prior to that 3-0 away win last January, Liverpool's first under Dalglish. The side struggled to a 2-0 home win and played out an insipid 0-0 away in Benitez's final season before that 0-1 setback at Anfield last December, marking Hodgson's nadir and ultimately voted the worst loss of the season by you lot.

McCarthy knows how to contain, stifle, and frustrate, evident in the fact that Wolves have sustained Premiership status for the third-consecutive season. Stoke gave McCarthy the template for grinding out a result against Liverpool. Dalglish's side will have to overcome that on more than one occasion, and back at the comforts of Anfield, Liverpool will look to replicate their earlier excellent home performances – a bit more Bolton than Sunderland, obviously.

Liverpool Managers: The First 30 Games

2011-09-22T14:14:00.001-04:00

Yesterday marked Dalglish's 30th game in charge since taking over last January. The side's record over that span is 15W-6D-9L. How does that compare with previous bosses?

Read the hexagonal diagrams from left to right, in rows of six. Just to make things confusing. Linearity isn't really the point.

They're ranked in order of points per game in the table below. Yes, I'm aware wins weren't worth three points until 1981-82, giving draws greater importance for Paisley and Shankly, especially away from home. And that some games were in Europe, some were cup ties, etc. Bear with me anyway.

Managers appointed before the start of the season invariably, understandably had a better record than those appointed mid-campaign. Except Hodgson. Who managed 31 games in total. And whose record looks far better than it arguably should because of 10 Europa League ties, facing easier competition than his "peers" often had to handle.

Dalglish's record in his second stint is the best of managers appointed mid-season, joint-top with Souness (who needed slightly more than 30 games to wreck the house the Bootroom built) but with one more win. Houllier, in sole charge following his failed co-managerial partnership with Roy Evans, had the worst.

Outside of the Dalglish, Fagan, and Houllier outliers – the first two remarkably better, with Liverpool a perfect, soulless crushing machine devouring all comers in the 1980s, records are remarkably similar. It takes time for managers to make their mark, for better (Shankly, Paisley, Houllier, Benitez) or for worse (hi Graeme).

Liverpool 2-1 Brighton

2011-09-21T17:44:00.001-04:00

Goals:
Bellamy 7'
Kuyt 81'
Barnes 90' (pen)

We'll preface this with "any win after two losses is a good result" and "this was an archetypal banana skin cup tie and Liverpool advanced." Just in case.

All the arrows in the above formation don't do the team justice. From the opening whistle, Bellamy combined with Suarez, Kuyt, and Maxi just as hoped, all moving in different, unexpected directions and leading to the early goal which appeared the beginning of the flood. Sustained, constant possession in Brighton's half ended with Suarez finding Bellamy's smart run behind three cramped defenders, cleverly finishing low inside the far post.

However, that sustained pressure couldn't have been achieved without Brighton's willingness to stand off, giving Liverpool players all the time (and more) that was lacking on Sunday. And the away side had multiple opportunities to take advantage, with only luck and what I assume is a thicker-than-regulation goal frame to blame for Liverpool holding such a slender lead.

Kuyt's 18th-minute effort following Ankergen's miscue was barely cleared off the line. Suarez put Kuyt's throughball just wide in the 26th and glanced a header off the outside of the post in the 31st. Bellamy nearly broke the crossbar with a 40-yard bazooka free kick in the 41st, and Spearing's low shot was barely pushed onto the post by Ankergen three minutes later. Like against Sunderland, Exeter, and Bolton, a second goal seemed only a matter of time, but given past precedent, you couldn't help but worry at the same time. And the precariousness of Liverpool's lead was demonstrated in first-half injury time, when an unfortunate deflection off Coates allowed Mackail-Smith to find an open Noone in the box. Reina could only fumble the strike in his goalmouth, saved by Kelly's diving clearance in front of Buckley.

Brighton unsurprisingly grew in confidence after the interval, only down by one and so nearly level, and Poyet made the necessary tactical changes, ensuring that Liverpool players didn't have that time on the ball. Pressing furiously made all the difference; Brighton had more possession and all the early opportunities after the interval. Coates nearly handed Noone an equalizer straight away – one of his few mistakes – with a cross-field pass to the former Liverpool youngster, who cannoned a shot off the same crossbar Liverpool hit in the first half. Seven minutes later, an excellent one-touch passing move ended with Sparrow's tame shot too close to Reina. Liverpool couldn't find the ball or their breath.

Unlike against Stoke or Tottenham, Liverpool didn't cheaply concede, at least until they were two goals to the good. Liverpool settled, if still second-best, while Gerrard's 75th minute entrance for Suarez buoyed hopes, the captain clearly champing at the bit. Six minutes later, Liverpool had that needed second, finally unlocking Brighton on the break. Bellamy, the lone outlet at that point, held up play well and cleverly found Maxi with a perfectly-timed pass, allowing the Argentinean to stride forward and subsequently find Kuyt on the right, beating Angerken low, again just inside the far post.

Unfortunately, once again, Liverpool couldn't keep the clean sheet thanks to another late late unnecessary penalty. For some reason, Spearing tried to keep the ball in and slipped, giving Vicente possession, and Carragher dove in to concede. Substitute Barnes, Brighton's top scorer, made no mistake with an unstoppable blast into the top corner.

Any port in a storm is one of my most-frequently used clichés, but it seems apt yet again. A result is a result is a result. The first half, specifically first 44 minutes, saw the renaissance we'd hoped for; the second half the failings we're all afraid and aware of. Bellamy-Suarez-Kuyt-Maxi were a revelation, then Bellamy-Suarez-Kuyt-Maxi weren't good enough. Same old, same old. Most worrying – more than Brighton's inevitable pressure, more than the late consolation – was how tired certain players looked as the game wore on, especially Lucas. The one player in the squad with no clear-cut replacement.

Simply put, there are no easy answers or quick-fix substitution solutions (although it's lovely to have Gerrard back). Confidence can be sapped in a moment's notice but takes multiple games to rebuild. Liverpool is still a long-term project, no matter the money spent or having the right man in the managerial hot seat. Despite moments of magic, which we've seen in every match bar Sunday's, it takes time for players to settle and teams to gel. Only Bolton has been a comprehensive victory, and – surprise, surprise – that was the one match where Liverpool's summer signings looked their best. This side, this squad, can look brilliant and hapless in the blink of an eye. It is a work in progress. And it is progressing.

Liverpool are in the fourth round. That's all we have a right to expect.

Wolves on Saturday.

Liverpool at Brighton 09.21.11

2011-09-20T14:52:00.001-04:00

2:45pm ET, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus

Last four head-to-head:
2-3 Liverpool (a; FA Cup) 01.30.91
2-2 (h; FA Cup) 01.26.91
4-0 Liverpool (h; League Cup) 10.29.85
0-2 Brighton (a; FA Cup) 01.01.84

Previous round(s):
Liverpool: 3-1 Exeter (a)
Brighton: 1-0 Sunderland (h); 1-0 Gillingham (h)

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-4 Spurs (a) 0-1 Stoke (a); 3-1 Bolton (h)
Brighton: 0-1 Leicester (a); 1-0 Bristol City (a); 2-0 Peterborough (h)

Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Suarez 3; Adam, Carroll, Henderson, Maxi, Skrtel 1
Brighton: Barnes 5; Mackail-Smith 3; Buckley 2; Harley, Hoskins, Noone 1

Referee: Michael Oliver

Youngest Premier League referee in history. He's done two Liverpool games in his short career: a 2008 Carling Cup win over Crewe and the 1-2 loss at Blackpool in Dalglish's first league game back.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Flanagan Carragher Coates Robinson
Gerrard Spearing Maxi
Kuyt Carroll Bellamy

Sunday? What happened Sunday? I don't remember any match on Sunday. I must have blacked out. Maybe you blacked out.

We saw a much stronger line-up than expected in the last round against Exeter. Odds are we'll see similar tomorrow.

The main question is about Liverpool's captain: will we finally see the return of Saint Gerrard? I'd like to think yes, I want to think yes, but if he wasn't on the bench on Sunday (note: I still don't remember Sunday), is he ready to feature here? I can't help but hope so.

The defense pretty much writes itself. The young fullbacks should both come back into the side. Agger's out for a month with a broken rib. Skrtel's suspended (along with Adam). Either Dalglish is incredibly, jaw-droppingly bold and starts both Wilson and Coates – which would give Liverpool's backline an average age of 19 – or Carragher returns to partner the young Uruguayan. No rest for the weary.

The front six should see a mix of first-teamers and top reserves as in the last round. Maxi and Spearing's lone starts came in the previous Carling Cup tie. Kuyt, held out against Spurs, seems nailed on, as does Bellamy, which would be his first start for the club. Which leaves...

Andy Carroll. Oh, Carroll. I could write a dissertation-length treatise on how nine starts is still too soon to judge, how Sunday's performance means next to nothing thanks to nine men and him relegated to the flank for long stretches, that it's not his fault players around him aren't playing to his strengths (hoofing ≠ strengths), and that his elephant-in-the-room fee really is the primary reason so many are furious with him. I'd rather not. You'd rather I not. Everyone take deep breaths. A Carling Cup match, even a difficult one – and make no mistake, lower league opposition or not, this is one of the toughest ties Liverpool could have been handed – seems an excellent opportunity for him to find both form and confidence. The latter is both my main concern and his main problem.

This match is the definition of a banana skin cup tie. Promoted as champions from League One last season, Brighton's loss to Sven's Leicester on Saturday was their first in this season's nine matches; they currently sit third in the table. The Seagulls won seven of those nine, with the lone draw five weeks ago when hosting Blackpool, beating promotion favorites Cardiff away as well as a full-strength Sunderland in the last round of this competition.

My best guess is they'll deploy as strong a line-up as possible, attempting to add to the many heights hit over the last 12 months – promotion, a glorious new stadium, Gus Poyet's rise as an excellent manager, etc. I won't pretend to have scouted them anywhere near thoroughly, but I do know Craig Mackail-Smith and Ashley Barnes are both very good strikers, midfielder Craig Noone is a Liverpool lad, and they've conceded just five goals so far this season. That's right. Five. However, they're also due to face Leeds on Friday night, 48 hours after this match, which could restrain Poyet's ambition.

It goes without saying that Liverpool badly need the morale boost – the fans probably more than the players. At least with the current manager, we know that the side will be fully prepared for what Brighton has to offer. They won't look past them, but Dalglish also won't build up the opposition as world-beaters like a certain manager did with Northampton Town. There's a job to do, and there's few who'd be more trusted to plan for and do said job than the current regime.

Liverpool 0-4 Spurs

2011-09-18T12:15:00.001-04:00

Goals:
Modric 7'
Defoe 66'
Adebayor 68' 90+3'

Unlike last week's loss, today held absolutely zero grasping-at-straws positives. An unhelpful, card-happy referee was the least of Liverpool's concerns. Nothing went right. No one played well. Tottenham won at a canter; a four-goal scoreline barely flatters an insipid opposition.

The starting formation, more a 4-3-3 than any other match this season, means next to nothing other than in gifting Tottenham the early initiative; it lasted less than 10 minutes. Spurs started exactly as Spurs started in last May's 0-2 loss at Anfield: running at Liverpool defenders, getting the early goal requiring Liverpool to chase the game. 'Arry's "just get out there and get at them" actually worked a treat. Again. I truly hate when that happens. And how often it seems to happen.

Modric and Parker won the midfield battle just as Modric and Sandro won it four months ago. Liverpool may have had numerical superiority, but it was confused numerical superiority – Adam ahead of Lucas and Henderson for the first time this season, leading to increased positional indiscipline from the former Blackpool man, which would soon sign Liverpool's death warrant. But that midfield superiority was also a moot point because of how quickly Spurs realized Liverpool's biggest weakness – a makeshift center-back on the right, up against a speed merchant in Welsh Jesus. No one saw that coming.

It was a mix-up on the opposite flank which should have seen Spurs' opener within three minutes: Lucas and Agger got in each other's way on Friedel's punt and Kranjcar easily held off Enrique, setting up Adebayor who somehow missed from 15 yards. They'd be ahead soon enough. Bale, after twice beating Skrtel down Liverpool's right in the first six minutes, set up Defoe when in acres of space – Skrtel sucked inside, as center-backs often are – who luckily set up Modric's brilliant, unstoppable 25-yard rocket.

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Liverpool still haven't won after going behind under Dalglish, and those early tactical errors compounded Liverpool's problems quickly. Shit rolls downhill, and it was rolling at light speed today. Liverpool somewhat settled by shifting to the 4-2-2-2, with Henderson right, Downing left, and Suarez and Carroll up front, but the early indiscipline and the referee's desire to fondle his cards at the first opportunity made a comeback impossible. Adam picked up his first booking in the 12th and his second in the 28th. Mike Jones can't be blamed for either. Last summer, Noel presciently wrote about gambling on the good Charlie Adam. Five games in, and that gamble's failed more often than it's succeeded. A minute before the sending off, Agger had to go off, replaced by Sebastian Coates. Sod's law displayed in its full, horrific glory.

Honestly, Liverpool did well not to concede for 40 more minutes. Granted, not having a shot on goal in the meantime isn't a pleasant stat, but down to 10 men and unable to do anything right, Spurs really should have extended their lead sooner. The rest of the half saw few chances for either side, but included yellows for Skrtel and Coates for their first fouls respectively and one for Suarez for typical petulant dissent. That'd unsurprisingly also come back to haunt Liverpool.

Liverpool made no changes during the interval, and the pattern of play continued in the same vein. Then Skrtel picked up his second yellow; a second dismissal was inevitable – it was a race between him and Suarez to see who'd get there first. After that, it was choose-your-own-scoreline for the home side. Like the last time Liverpool had two men sent off – at Fulham two years ago – more goals were always coming with 11 men against a flailing nine, and it took Spurs five minutes to get two more, before Liverpool were ready to make any substitutions.

Defoe, onside (thanks Carra) and with the freedom of North London, held off and turned Enrique before firing under Reina. A minute or so later, Liverpool's usually reliable keeper fumbled Defoe's long-range shot (given space by, again, Carra) into Adebayor's path for an easy home debut goal. With 10 men and with Spurs failing to get a second, Liverpool had a whisper of hope. With nine men and conceding twice in quick succession, more open than a exhibitionist's trenchcoat, the game was dead and buried without a proper funeral. Just dumped into a shallow, half-dug pit in a junkyard. Which was about as much as it deserved.

From there, it was solely damage control, aided by Spurs' mercy in keeping the ball without much desire to embarrass. Bellamy and Spearing replaced Downing and Suarez, both starters protected rather than any tactical change to ease the pain. Spurs finally got a fourth in the dregs of injury time when Coates left Adebayor open and Carragher (a-fucking-gain) played him onside. You're always fighting a losing battle with nine men, but shambolic defending on the three subsequent goals, usually from Liverpool's stalwart, legendary stand-in captain, adds to this apex of embarrassment.

Today was as bad as any loss we saw under Hodgson. No one saw that coming. The main difference is that under the previous manager, Liverpool usually lost because they invited the opposition onto them, allowing their opponents to dictate play and tempo. Today, Liverpool lost because they were too ambitious in believing that an attacking, open 4-3-3 could take the game to Tottenham and that Skrtel could contain Bale and Assou-Ekotto. We can pretend losing with ambition is slightly more encouraging, but a trip to the woodshed is a trip to the woodshed, no matter how you're dragged there. Of course, I still know who I'd prefer, and although this disclaimer shouldn't be necessary, criticizing choices isn't criticizing Dalglish. Everyone can and should learn from this. Unlike the last days of Benitez and the entirety of Hodgson, the sky isn't falling quite yet.

Picking out one or two scapegoats after that abortion is an impossibility. Absolutely every decision was the wrong one, every player made mistakes, tactics were wretched, early cards set the tone, and Spurs gleefully took advantage of every single gift.

Carroll will be a favored target – Liverpool still haven't played well when he's started aside from City last season and this campaign's win at Arsenal (earned after he went off) – but he's low on the list of my concerns. Adam's decision-making was horrific. Skrtel at right back was the wrong choice no matter how poorly Flanagan did against Sunderland or Exeter. Henderson ran around headlessly, Downing and Suarez were irrelevant, Enrique was surprisingly poor, and even Lucas disappointed repeatedly. The full set; apologies if I've missed anyone. The tactics allowed Spurs to set the tone, and the yellow cards gave them more momentum. Again, all cards were earned though, harshly or not.

There are two infinitesimal consolations. One, other than on Spurs' final goal, Coates did fine, although notably lacking in pace as advertised. Two, Liverpool now have three of its six hardest away games out of the way after just five matches, with one win and two losses. Not that it's an incredibly warming fact, but that's still better than the comparable results from the previous two campaigns.

This cannot live long in the memory. Last week was unduly harsh. This was deserved. Wholly deserved. All it's good for is as motivation: a definitive nadir and lesson in what not to do for both players and management. A difficult trip to Brighton follows on Wednesday before rebooting the league campaign against Wolves this weekend.

Liverpool at Tottenham 09.18.11

2011-09-16T09:31:00.000-04:00

8:30am ET, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus

Last four head-to-head:
0-2 Spurs (h) 05.15.11
1-2 Spurs (a) 11.28.10
2-0 Liverpool (h) 01.20.10
1-2 Spurs (a) 08.16.09

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 Stoke (a); 3-1 Bolton (h); 3-1 Exeter (a)
Spurs: 0-0 PAOK (a); 2-0 Wolves (a); 1-5 City (h)

Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 2; Adam, Henderson, Skrtel 1
Spurs: Adebayor, Defoe, Kaboul 1

Referee: Mike Jones

Jones has done two Liverpool games in his Premiership career: last October's 1-2 loss to Blackpool and, um... oh, right. I'm sure there's absolutely no coincidence between his appointment and Dalglish's "attack" on referees following Stoke.

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Carragher Agger Enrique
Henderson Lucas Adam Downing
Suarez Kuyt

There are three questions about the Liverpool side to face Spurs, the same three questions we've been asking since the start of the season. Will Gerrard finally return? Who'll play right back with injuries at that position failing to subside? And what's the deal with ~~airline food~~ Andy Carroll?

As for the first two questions, Dalglish stated that Johnson is the only definitive absence in yesterday's press conference. That Gerrard and Kelly are both in full training is no guarantee either will play. Troubled by a wonky groin for the last six months, Gerrard's unlikely to start right away, appearing off the bench if at all. Wednesday's league cup trip to Brighton seems a more probable return.

Even though ostensibly fit, Kelly still needs to be protected, having suffered three hamstring injuries since February. Facing Welsh Jesus, Skrtel would be under far more pressure than against either Bolton or Stoke. Flanagan hasn't even made the bench since starting against Exeter. It seems a 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' situation for any of the three.

And then there's Carroll. Unimpressive in either substitute appearance against Bolton or Stoke, he looks a player who needs to play to find form. But with Suarez and Kuyt continuing to pair well and Carroll continuing to look like a fish out of water attempting to ride a bicycle, he simply hasn't done enough to force his way into the side. A match at barbarous Stoke seemed the perfect opportunity, but Tottenham's defense poses a different challenge. Ledley King, a perpetual question mark, was excellent a week ago, but the crucial Dawson (as well as Gallas) is out injured, probably replaced by the sometimes excellent, sometimes hilarious Kaboul. Bellamy's another option up front, in place of Kuyt, Henderson or even Downing, having been Liverpool's best player for the 20 minutes he was on the pitch against Stoke.

Last week, Stoke played for a draw at the Britannia, lucky to get the win thanks to a moment of madness leading to their lone shot on goal. Tottenham will have slightly more ambition at home. Liverpool have lost the last three meetings to Spurs, and the last four trips to White Hart Lane, with the last Lane win on the last day of the 2007-08 season.

Spurs took an under-strength line-up to their Europa League match in Greece yesterday, withholding any player likely to play on Sunday. Embarrassed in their first two league matches against the league's two best sides, Tottenham were far better winning at a difficult venue last week, beating Wolves 2-0. Adebayor linked well with Defoe, each scoring in the second half, while Parker unsurprisingly added grit to Modric's guile in midfield. With a far longer casualty list than Liverpool, including the aforementioned Dawson and Gallas as well as Sandro, Pienaar, Huddlestone and possibly Lennon, Redknapp's main choice is whether to wedge the returning van der Vaart into last week's 4-4-2, in place of either Defoe behind Adebayor or Kranjcar on the flanks.

The last time Liverpool traveled to London for a Sunday 8:30am ET kickoff saw the most discouraging loss suffered under Dalglish, a comprehensive 1-3 failure at West Ham, which coincidentally saw Scotty Parker as the game's best player. Early away kickoffs have often been Liverpool's bane in recent years. However, the last time Liverpool played in London was an early kickoff as well – that 2-0 victory over Arsenal a month ago. Please replicate the latter rather than the former.

Have I Mentioned That I Hate Stoke?

2011-09-12T10:44:00.003-04:00

30 shots, six on target, six blocked, zero goals. 76% possession to the opposition's 24%. 400 more passes attempted than the opposition. Statistically, it seems impossible.

Obviously, it's not. Because it's happened twice in three years. The above stats are from when Liverpool met Stoke at Anfield in September 2008.

It's almost like looking in a mirror. A filthy, scratched, wicked witch's mirror mirror on the wall.

There are just two notable differences. First, the obvious – Stoke had one more shot in Saturday's meeting: the one on target, the one from the spot. The second is in the unsuccessful passes. Look at the amount of crosses attempted: 49 unsuccessful in '08-09 compared to 19 on Saturday. Saturday's unsuccessful passes were more of the hoofing variety. And that was without Carroll on the field for the majority of the match.

Unsuccessful passes are unsuccessful passes, but at least it's slightly more encouraging to see those unsuccessful passes in the final third rather than booted forward from Liverpool's own half. But that's a small quibble, one already known and overly analyzed.

Liverpool have taken 20+ shots and had more than 70% possession without scoring three times since 2007/08: these two matches against Stoke and the 0-2 loss at Middlesbrough in February 2009. Three out of 229 matches. Enough to suggest it's both a freak occurrence and a credit to Stoke's tactics, as they appear twice on the list of three.

And yet, some in the media seem to want to treat it as the beginning of the end. To wit:

...That may come as a relief to the 60-year-old but for his admirers there may remain concern over his loss of temper, the sense, even, that for the second time in two decades the task of managing Liverpool is proving too great a responsibilty for the club's greatest player.

Beyond the pale backhanded references to Hillsborough aside, it's still inane drivel. Tomkins already fisked this idiocy, as well as an even more moronic 'match report'; there's no point copying his superior work. But the similarities in these articles to the overblown response following "Rafa's Rant" can't be over-looked. So much for bias ending with with Benitez's beheading. As if that should be a surprise. Only lovable Roy earned multiple reprieves from the London mafia. By now, this criticism is a badge of honor.

Again, credit clearly has to go to Tony Pulis. He knows how he wants Stoke to set up, and that stifling set-up works against more than just Liverpool. Were it not for one defensive error from a flat-footed Carragher and a couple of contentious calls, the result could have been reversed. But that's football. It means little, yet at least such a dominating performance without reward came on the road rather than at Anfield. And this year's Liverpool could do much worse than further similarities with the '08-09 version.

Update: Seems fair to link an explanation from the writer of that quoted Hillsborough reference.

Liverpool 0-1 Stoke

2011-09-10T12:44:00.004-04:00

Goals:
Walters 21' (pen)

Karma. No one will ever be able to convince me otherwise.

Clattenburg was at the center of it – as is Clattenburg's wont – denying two, possibly three handball penalties. But karma is more encompassing than a handful of potential, contentious game-changing decisions. Only Begovic and Jesus know how Stoke's goalkeeper kept out five successive chances in the 62nd minute or how Suarez spurned a sitter in the last minute of injury time.

Liverpool started well, as they have in every match this season, but Stoke settled far quicker than Liverpool's earlier opponents. Their perpetually rugged style denied and nullified, aided by a pitch allowed to grow ankle-high. And the 21st-minute penalty – soft but understandable (karma again) – gave Stoke the lead and allowed them to park the bus directly in front of goal as they love so much. Carra's poor positioning allowed Walters in behind and in place to tumble a la Bamba on ice, and Clattenburg pointed to the spot post haste.

From there, Liverpool were going to have to dissect an opposition half packed to the brim with defenders, with Walters and sometimes Crouch the lone outlets. And with Liverpool's passing wholly disjointed, especially from Adam, packing the box was always going to be a successful proposition. Chances were few and far between despite overwhelming possession (73-27% by full time), mainly blocked by the six defenders constantly sitting in Stoke's penalty box.

Those numbers committed to defending deep made space incredibly hard to come by, even for the incandescent likes of Luis Suarez. Liverpool's best chance(s) came on a singular moment on the counter-attack, following one of the few occasions where Stoke piled men forward (as they'd won a rare free kick in Liverpool's half). Enrique's perfectly-placed pass found Henderson charging forward without a marker in sight, with all the time in the world to decide how to beat Begovic. Too much time. Hesitating, Henderson tried to place it under the keeper, easily saved, with his first rebound again saved and the second blocked. Adam followed up, seeing his chances first blocked then saved. Wholly implausible. Wholly fitting. Well played Begovic, but Henderson's going to come in for (assuredly overly harsh) criticism for his choices, ignoring the smart run which put in him that position.

Dalglish's changes came in the 68th, replacing Kuyt and Henderson with Bellamy and Carroll. Bellamy impressed, linking up well with Enrique on the left and spurning a good chance when heading wide of the near post in the 88th. Carroll did nothing to earn a reprieve from the nonstop questions, although Liverpool rarely played to his strengths and Stoke's height and multiple defenders limited his impact. And yet Liverpool still should have leveled in the dying seconds when Begovic finally made a mistake, colliding with the awkward Crouch trying to punch a cross clear, but caught flat-footed, Suarez could only shin inches wide. Which seemed a fitting capstone.

If not for Begovic's marvelous magnetic minute, Stoke's groundskeeper would have been the man of the match – narrowing the pitch after the last Europa League game and allowing the grass to grow for the duration of the international break. Long grass prevents pass and move football. Liverpool lives and dies by pass and move football these days.

Today's not a match for the stats nerds. Stoke took 21 fewer shots than Liverpool, scoring with their lone on target from the spot. Stoke attempted just 195 passes, 350 fewer than Liverpool and 121 fewer than any of Liverpool's other league opponents this season. Liverpool had more than double the possession Stoke had. And they still lost. Lies, damned lies, and...

Adam, Liverpool's fulcrum, was poor today, while Suarez, Downing, and Kuyt each had their least-effective games of the season. Credit has to go to Stoke's nullification, as nullification is what Stoke does best and the early penalty allowed Stoke to focus on nullification and nothing more, but Liverpool needs to do better against the bus parkers if they've any ambition of returning to the top tier of the top tier.

Despite how today's match stats show how numbers can lie, two other statistics still stand out. Liverpool haven't won away after an international break since April 2009, with five losses and a draw since. And Liverpool still haven't won under Dalglish after conceding the first goal, again with five losses and a draw since.

There are obvious bright spots which can be taken from the performance; there's no comparison between today's loss and last season's 0-2 shellacking at the Britannia in anything other than the result. But nonetheless, the more things change, the more they still seem to stay the same in too many aspects.