03 January 2011

2010-11 Midseason Stats Comparison

For the fifth year running. Not for those with weak stomachs.

Points total after 19 games:
10/11: 25
09/10: 30
08/09: 42
07/08: 37
06/07: 34

Results over 19 games:
10/11: 7 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses
09/10: 9 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses
08/09: 12 wins, 6 draws, 1 loss
07/08: 10 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses
06/07: 10 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses

League position after 19 games:
10/11: 9th
09/10: 7th
08/09: 1st
07/08: 4th
06/07: 3rd

# of points behind 1st place:
10/11: -16
09/10: -12
08/09: +1
07/08: -10, with a game in hand
06/07: -13

Goals scored after 19 games:
10/11: 23
09/10: 36
08/09: 30
07/08: 33
06/07: 28

Goals against after 19 games:
10/11: 24
09/10: 25
08/09: 12
07/08: 12
06/07: 15

Home Goals:
10/11: 17
09/10: 26
08/09: 16
07/08: 20
06/07: 20

Away Goals:
10/11: 6
09/10: 10
08/09: 14
07/08: 13
06/07: 8

Clean Sheets:
10/11: 6
09/10: 6
08/09: 11
07/08: 10
06/07: 10

Goal scorers:
10/11: Torres 6; Gerrard, Kuyt, Maxi 3; Kyrgiakos, Ngog 2; Babel, Cole, Johnson, Skrtel 1
09/10: Torres 11; Benayoun, Gerrard, Kuyt 5; Ngog 4; Babel, Johnson 2; Skrtel 1
08/09: Gerrard 6; Keane, Kuyt, Torres 5; Alonso, Riera 2; Arbeloa, Benayoun, Babel, Carragher 1
07/08: Torres 9; Gerrard 7; Babel, Kuyt, Voronin 3; Alonso, Benayoun 2; Hyypia, Sissoko 1
06/07: Kuyt 6; Bellamy 5; Alonso, Gerrard 3; Crouch, Garcia, Gonzalez 2; Agger, Carragher, Fowler, Riise 1

# of games Liverpool failed to score in:
10/11: 5 [Wolves (h), Stoke (a), Everton (a), Brum (a), City (a)]
09/10: 4 [Chelsea (a), Sunderland (a), Blackburn (a), Pompey (a)]
08/09: 4 [Villa (a), Stoke (h), Fulham (h), West Ham (h)]
07/08: 5 [Pompey (a), Birmingham (h), Blackburn (a), United (h), City (a)]
06/07: 7 [Everton (a), Chelsea (a), Bolton (a), United (a), Arsenal (a), Boro (a), Portsmouth (h)]

Home form:
10/11: 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; 20 points out of 30
09/10: 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; 20 points out of 30
08/09: 6 wins, 4 draws; 22 points out of 30
07/08: 4 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss; 16 points out of 27
06/07: 8 wins, 2 draws; 26 points out of 30

Away form:
10/11: 1 win, 2 draws, 6 losses; 5 points out of 27
09/10: 3 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses; 10 points out of 27
08/09: 6 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; 20 points out of 27
07/08: 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss; 21 points out of 30
06/07: 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses; 8 points out of 27

I guess it's not all bad news.

Liverpool conceded one more goal at this point last season. They scored one fewer goal at Anfield in 2008-09. There were two more scoreless performances in '06-07. Liverpool kept the same number of clean sheets last season and had the exact same home form. And I was assuming historic lows in all regards...

Otherwise, this season's seen Liverpool fewest wins, most losses, lowest points total and league placement, and fewest goals scored after 19 games since I started this blog. It's the first time that Liverpool have conceded more league goals than they've scored. As has become painfully apparent, away form is the all-consuming problem. Five points out of 27 is indescribably horrific. That's relegation form. But Liverpool is only two points worse at Anfield than they were in 2008-09, when they led the league at this point. That's the saving grace, which is why the insipid loss against Wolves last Wednesday was so worrisome. Home form is all Liverpool's had.

Liverpool's points per game after 19 games gives us a fairly safe estimate for the end-of-season total. Liverpool's currently averaging 1.32 points per game. Over the last four seasons, the differential between points per game at mid-season and the end of the season has been 0.08 or less.


Points Per Game after 19 end-of-season
2009-10 1.58 (30) 1.66 (63)
2008-09 2.21 (42) 2.26 (86)
2007-08 1.95 (37) 2 (76)
2006-07 1.79 (34) 1.79 (68)

The respective differential over the last four seasons is +0.08, +0.05, +0.05, and 0. If Liverpool increased their points-per-game record by 0.08 over the rest of this season, they'll end with 53 points. If form remains the same, they'll end with 50. I highly doubt either of those will secure 4th; it would be lucky to earn an Europa League place. 53 points would have gotten 9th in '09-10, 7th in '08-09, 9th in '07-08, and 10th in '06-07. Right around the position Liverpool currently occupies.

It will take a vast improvement over the second half of the season to reach last season's "poor" results. Liverpool would have to win 38 points over the rest of the campaign to equal last season's total of 63, an average of two points per game. That's title-contending form; United's currently the only team hitting that mark.

All we can really hope for is improvement. Especially away from Anfield.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great analysis, as usual :)
Though, it doesn't exactly make for nice reading..

As you mentioned, I was expecting an all time low in every way.
But then again 1.32 points per game just doesn't lie.

I don't know if it's the American way to write it but in my head the point differences between mid- and end-season should be 0.08 etc.


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nate said...

Hahaha, no it's not 'an American thing,' it's an 'I'm a bloody idiot' thing. I did the subsequent math correctly, but you're absolutely right on the .08 typos.

Fixed, thanks much.

Anonymous said...

If I was a bastard, I could ask what the difference is, but I won't do that ;)

About the math, that's just me being anal..

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